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Thread: Liz Truss

  1. #1 Liz Truss 
    Forum Ph.D. Double Helix's Avatar
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    My news feed is lighting up with stories about Truss, suggesting she is making a major blunder by borrowing money to pay for tax cuts. That seems like a bad approach for dealing with fiscal issues. Even the International Monetary Fund is trashing on the move as it "risked undermining the efforts of the Bank of England to tackle rampant inflation amid the cost of living emergency."*

    Not much into economics so don't know where this might end up, but it appears that many financial experts are not amused by the approach she is taking. Hope everything works out well. It seems the entire world has been thrown into economic chaos. Perhaps it is not surprising that some are trying new approaches to solving the on-going problems.


    "IMF urges UK government to reconsider tax-cutting plans"

    * https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ality-imf-says


    and :

    "Rebuke from IMF is a global embarrassment for Truss and Kwarteng

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...s-and-kwarteng



    Last edited by Double Helix; September 28th, 2022 at 07:24 PM.
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  3. #2  
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    Hamstrung by Liz Truss' wild economic policies during her leadership campaign is still no excuse for the fiasco that was his 'mini-budget', Kwasi Kwarteng made an inauspicious start as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. One of his first acts, sacking Sir Tom Scholar, permanent secretary at the Treasury, went down with civil service like a bucket of cold sick. Followed up by completely ignoring his economic advisors and preventing the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) from publishing their economic forecasts and even assessing the economic impact of his tax cuts.


    The Conservatives under Liz Truss now stand at 21% in the latest YouGov poll, one of the lowest ever showings, in stark contrast to the Labour Party now polling on 54%. In Parliamentary terms if there was general election and the YouGov polling was accurate, the Conservatives would be wiped out, with only 61 MPs from a parliament of 650.


    Realistically, doing nothing isn't an option. The Conservative MPs will simply remove Liz Truss if both the economic situation and their polling numbers don't improve. But it's not like the UK economy is kaput, we have nearly full employment, it's just due to some inane economic choices by an incompetent ultra-right-wing government who appear to believe that giving ever more tax breaks to the wealthy is the panacea to all our economic ills.
    The economic woes we've experienced are unlikely to last once the government changes course or gets replaced.


    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  4. #3  
    ox
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    The Conservative MPs will simply remove Liz Truss if both the economic situation and their polling numbers don't improve.
    Who might they replace her with?
    They will be seen as weak if they do replace her. Likewise if they don't.
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  5. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Who might they replace her with?
    They can always bring back Boris.
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  6. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    The Conservative MPs will simply remove Liz Truss if both the economic situation and their polling numbers don't improve.
    Who might they replace her with?
    They will be seen as weak if they do replace her. Likewise if they don't.
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Who might they replace her with?

    They can always bring back Boris.



    It'd be in the Conservatives interest to just go with Rishi Sunak, may leave Truss' supporters feeling disgruntled but at least he's relatively popular amongst the public and seems to have an understanding of economics, he actually predicted the exact mess we'd be in if Truss got to put her ideas into action.
    In terms of the country at large, he'd be a much better Prime Minister, in political terms I personally wouldn't want him as PM because it would make it harder for Labour to get elected, with Truss in charge Sir Keir Starmer becoming the next PM looks all but inevitable.
    Bringing Boris Johnson back to Downing Street doesn't appear likely, whilst there are those who would rejoice at a triumphant return, comebacks aren't exactly commonplace in politics. Neither are people who've forgotten about Partygate or still celebrating Brexit at the moment.
    Though my track record at predicting political leaders hasn't exactly been stellar, so expect anything.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  7. #6  
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    Not cutting taxes on rich people (poliucy reversal) seems sensible. Maybe she'll last a while.
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  8. #7  
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    How many U-Turns is a PM allowed?
    I can't remember one coming so quickly - only about 10 working days into the job.
    Tories seem to show too much respect to Rees-Mogg whose mantra is tax cuts.
    For some reason they fall for it from this 18th century politician with his pin stripes, bowler and strangulated vowel speech.
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  9. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    How many U-Turns is a PM allowed?
    I would think that quite a few people are getting rather angry with their MP as this continues. The problem with the U-turns is you think the policy was so bad in the first place we absolutely needed a U-turn, then you turn on the radio to hear our new Prime Minister announcing her latest U-turn over having no blackouts this winter and speculation the 3 hours now being mentioned may turn out to be 3 days for some people! How much more of this is the country willing to endure is anybody's guess, but mine would be 3 months tops, I think she'll survive Christmas, but if things haven't majorly improved come January, she's toast and those backing her are going down with the sinking ship.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  10. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    How many U-Turns is a PM allowed?
    I would think that quite a few people are getting rather angry with their MP as this continues. The problem with the U-turns is you think the policy was so bad in the first place we absolutely needed a U-turn, then you turn on the radio to hear our new Prime Minister announcing her latest U-turn over having no blackouts this winter and speculation the 3 hours now being mentioned may turn out to be 3 days for some people! How much more of this is the country willing to endure is anybody's guess, but mine would be 3 months tops, I think she'll survive Christmas, but if things haven't majorly improved come January, she's toast and those backing her are going down with the sinking ship.
    She's indubitably an idiot, but there is a certain amount of hysteria about this blackout story.

    National Grid has modelled some scenarios including one with a very hard winter. One can sometimes get a prolonged spell of high pressure which makes it very cold and simultaneously almost windless. It is this scenario that, they say, could result in 3hr rolling blackouts, due to shortage of gas for gas-fired power stations. This is not the central scenario by any means. It is one contingency that should be planned for, that's all.

    Talk of 3 day blackouts is absurd, unless one is thinking of storms bringing down power lines, which is always possible but nothing to do with the gas shortage.

    By the way, I assume that rationing domestic gas is impossible, since one can't let the pressure in the lines drop too close to atmospheric without risking air in the pipes, which would be a serious safety hazard. So it will be industry and power gen that have to bear the brunt of any shortage. Though domestically we might see some slight reduction in gas pressure I suppose. I seem to recall that from the 60s and 70s when supplies were low.
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  11. #10  
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    Spending 3 days without power would be just intolerable so I hope you're correct. Listening to the conversation on LBC it didn't sound implausible, the notion we were being softened up for worse to come, especially when we were originally being told there wouldn't be any power outages this winter.

    Domestic & industrial gas supplies are somewhat interchangeable, with both supplied from network of pipelines which constitutes the National Transmission System. If we have shortages, then maintaining supply to domestic gas distribution companies could result in gas-fired power stations temporarily shutting down, the alternative would actually be rationing for domestic consumers. I wouldn't envy those having to choose.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  12. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Spending 3 days without power would be just intolerable so I hope you're correct. Listening to the conversation on LBC it didn't sound implausible, the notion we were being softened up for worse to come, especially when we were originally being told there wouldn't be any power outages this winter.

    Domestic & industrial gas supplies are somewhat interchangeable, with both supplied from network of pipelines which constitutes the National Transmission System. If we have shortages, then maintaining supply to domestic gas distribution companies could result in gas-fired power stations temporarily shutting down, the alternative would actually be rationing for domestic consumers. I wouldn't envy those having to choose.
    You don't seem to be paying attention. According to the modelling, there will not be any power cuts, unless we get an extremely cold winter with high pressure causing prolonged periods of no wind. It is an extreme planning scenario, of the type that competent organisations consider so that they are prepared for the unexpected.

    And the 3 days thing is either made up by hysterical newspapers or relates to something else entirely, viz. high winds bringing down power lines, as has happened before.
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  13. #12  
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    Conservative immigration policy is strangling industry, companies simply cannot hire enough employees. Conservative trade barriers have shrunk our export markets and made imports more expensive damaging our balance of trade. Conservative stance over the Northern Ireland Protocol has impaired our diplomatic relations with Ireland, the EU and United States, ensuring no UK/US trade deal for the foreseeable future. Conservative unfunded tax cuts have frightened international investors causing a run on the pound requiring intervention from the Bank of England. Conservative austerity agenda has hurt public services and decimated local economies with councils having to make major spending cuts impacting local businesses and economies.

    The PM's mantra has been growth, hard to disagree with. The issue is that her government's actions run contrary to this objective.
    Liz Truss has only been Prime Minister for a few weeks, yet the trust is gone. It wouldn't be so bad for her if it were merely people who don't support the Conservatives, but it's not, now it's pretty much everybody in the country. The default position for any government policy announcements is skepticism. Without substantial external corroboration this government isn't to be trusted.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  14. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Conservative immigration policy is strangling industry, companies simply cannot hire enough employees. Conservative trade barriers have shrunk our export markets and made imports more expensive damaging our balance of trade. Conservative stance over the Northern Ireland Protocol has impaired our diplomatic relations with Ireland, the EU and United States, ensuring no UK/US trade deal for the foreseeable future. Conservative unfunded tax cuts have frightened international investors causing a run on the pound requiring intervention from the Bank of England. Conservative austerity agenda has hurt public services and decimated local economies with councils having to make major spending cuts impacting local businesses and economies.

    The PM's mantra has been growth, hard to disagree with. The issue is that her government's actions run contrary to this objective.
    Liz Truss has only been Prime Minister for a few weeks, yet the trust is gone. It wouldn't be so bad for her if it were merely people who don't support the Conservatives, but it's not, now it's pretty much everybody in the country. The default position for any government policy announcements is skepticism. Without substantial external corroboration this government isn't to be trusted.
    Pretty hard to disagree with any of that.

    There is a good chance of a financial crisis next week when the BoE stops buying gilts. Nothing Kwarteng or Truss has said goes any way towards resolving the £60bn black hole in the budget that needs a credible means of being filled, if confidence is to be restored. The markets won't wait for Kwarteng's Hallowe'en Special. Worse, the BoE has now been put in an almost impossible position by these fools. It's own credibility has taken a knock. That will reduce confidence in the UK even further.

    The only way out is to remove both Kwarteng and Truss in short order and perhaps hold a general election. Vote of no confidence? I imagine there must be at least some One Nation Tories who would contemplate voting out their own government for the good of the country, at this point. It's crazy and unimaginably damaging if it is allowed to go on.
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  15. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Conservative immigration policy is strangling industry, companies simply cannot hire enough employees. Conservative trade barriers have shrunk our export markets and made imports more expensive damaging our balance of trade. Conservative stance over the Northern Ireland Protocol has impaired our diplomatic relations with Ireland, the EU and United States, ensuring no UK/US trade deal for the foreseeable future. Conservative unfunded tax cuts have frightened international investors causing a run on the pound requiring intervention from the Bank of England. Conservative austerity agenda has hurt public services and decimated local economies with councils having to make major spending cuts impacting local businesses and economies.

    The PM's mantra has been growth, hard to disagree with. The issue is that her government's actions run contrary to this objective.
    Liz Truss has only been Prime Minister for a few weeks, yet the trust is gone. It wouldn't be so bad for her if it were merely people who don't support the Conservatives, but it's not, now it's pretty much everybody in the country. The default position for any government policy announcements is skepticism. Without substantial external corroboration this government isn't to be trusted.
    Pretty hard to disagree with any of that.

    There is a good chance of a financial crisis next week when the BoE stops buying gilts. Nothing Kwarteng or Truss has said goes any way towards resolving the £60bn black hole in the budget that needs a credible means of being filled, if confidence is to be restored. The markets won't wait for Kwarteng's Hallowe'en Special. Worse, the BoE has now been put in an almost impossible position by these fools. It's own credibility has taken a knock. That will reduce confidence in the UK even further.

    The only way out is to remove both Kwarteng and Truss in short order and perhaps hold a general election. Vote of no confidence? I imagine there must be at least some One Nation Tories who would contemplate voting out their own government for the good of the country, at this point. It's crazy and unimaginably damaging if it is allowed to go on.
    Scary, but insightful.

    Not certain how realistic enough Conservative MPs prioritising country would be though, when polling indicates with a general election few would survive.
    Tempering expectations, competent alternatives replacing Truss & Kwarteng perhaps the best we should hope for.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  16. #15  
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    The only question that remains is did she outlast fresh lettuce?!
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  17. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    The only question that remains is did she outlast fresh lettuce
    ?!
    Iceberg lettuce?
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  18. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    The only question that remains is did she outlast fresh lettuce
    ?!
    Iceberg lettuce?
    She beat the expiration period by a long shot - 6 whole weeks!

    So who is up next, and will they last any longer?
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  19. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    The only question that remains is did she outlast fresh lettuce
    ?!
    Iceberg lettuce?
    She beat the expiration period by a long shot - 6 whole weeks!

    So who is up next, and will they last any longer?
    It is a mind boggler,alright.
    I don't have a clue.
    Maybe clueluss husband can give us some pointers?
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  20. #19  
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    According to Matt Davies, Liz is still at the top of the pile, at least for now*.

    Is that a head of lettuce falling off?

    Maybe Boris will climb back up!!


    "Tower of London"

    * https://www.gocomics.com/mattdavies/2022/10/21


    (please don't shoot the messenger)
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