Thread: U.S. Department of Defense Estimate : China's military and its massive expansion of weapons and their deployment!

An alarming report from Politco* details a U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) assessment on the future of Chinese plans to become the world's largest military power. The DOD estimates the Chinese intend to increase their nuclear arsenal five times over its present level of ca. 200 warheads, vastly beyond that required as a deterrent force. Recent tests of hypersonic weapons capable of evading defensive interception are also indicative of these activities.

Moreover, China's increase in their naval capacity is of great concern. Quoting from the article:

"The breakneck military buildup has produced a 360-ship navy, pushing well past the 297 hulls that the U.S. Navy operates. The Office of Naval Intelligence estimates that by 2030, China will have 425 ships in the water."

and also:

" “The nuclear expansion that the PRC is undertaking is certainly something that's very concerning to us,” the senior defense official said. It “raises some questions about their intentions, because it’s one thing to observe what they're doing, but they haven't explained why they're doing it.” "

“They're creating capabilities that suggest they might be moving away from a decades-long approach to their nuclear policy and strategy,” a senior defense official told reporters before the release of the new study.

end quotes

The DOD report also details aspects of Chinese intentions towards Taiwan, and further expansion of their baseless claims to the South China Sea. Overall, the report regards the next decade or so of China's intentions at becoming a global power, and as a potential existential threat to all who oppose them. In this regard, it is significant to note that China has refused to engage in talks regarding these military activities, or even establishing a peace-seeking dialogue.

These activities by China do not appear defensive in nature, but rather those based on unambiguous offensive capabilities. The West should be paying very close attention to these developments and seek means for moderating their hegemonistic tendencies.


"Pentagon predicts 5 times increase in China's nuclear weapons over next 10 years"

* https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...weapons-519048

Warfare between US and China would be catastrophic for both, even without using nuclear weapons. USSR and USA both recognized this during the cold war. Chinese and American leaders know this applies here.

Originally Posted by mathman

Warfare between US and China would be catastrophic for both, even without using nuclear weapons. USSR and USA both recognized this during the cold war. Chinese and American leaders know this applies here.

We should all hope you are right.

There are no winners if this does not apply here.

It must seem to Chinese people like a case of do what the US says, not what the US does. They must see the US as a nation that has consistently treated China as an enemy on ideological grounds and has sought to constrain it's defense capabilities.

All theater military domination must sound good to Americans - more powerful than anyone else - and using military force to advance US goals and advantage anywhere in the world is a US right, but requires them to deny that "right" to others. The rest of the world - unsurprisingly - doesn't see it the same way.

Given the instability and extremes of internal US politics, the propensity to seek external scapegoats for domestic political purposes and it's history of failed military ventures - it ought not be a surprise nations like China view the US as a threat. One they need to build up their military capabilities to defend against.

Exceptionalism is not a good model to emulate - by it's nature it denies the right of others to emulate it - and ramping up anti-China sentiment is only going to strengthen Chinese resolve.

Originally Posted by Ken Fabos

It must seem to Chinese people like a case of do what the US says, not what the US does. They must see the US as a nation that has consistently treated China as an enemy on ideological grounds and has sought to constrain it's defense capabilities.

All theater military domination must sound good to Americans - more powerful than anyone else - and using military force to advance US goals and advantage anywhere in the world is a US right, but requires them to deny that "right" to others. The rest of the world - unsurprisingly - doesn't see it the same way.

Given the instability and extremes of internal US politics, the propensity to seek external scapegoats for domestic political purposes and it's history of failed military ventures - it ought not be a surprise nations like China view the US as a threat. One they need to build up their military capabilities to defend against.

Exceptionalism is not a good model to emulate - by it's nature it denies the right of others to emulate it - and ramping up anti-China sentiment is only going to strengthen Chinese resolve.

That the U.S. has a large military should come as no surprise based on the last hundred years or so. Had they not gone to assist Europe and East Asia, it is likely the world would have been conquered by the Germans and Japanese. China was spared by the U.S. and her allies from the Japanese, after losing ca. 10 million people, so it is clearly not true that the U.S. "has consistently treated China as an enemy on ideological grounds". American and allied powers saved their people from brutal Japanese domination, beyond any doubt.

The U.S. then started counter-measures when China became Communist, and the threat they then represented to the free world. Anyone who does not accept this history should do some serious reading. Before all those wars, the U.S. was largely isolationist. After two bloody world wars, it became a super power, attempting to prevent such events from recurring, and to prevent the global domination of Communism by the Soviet Union and China.

Anyone living in Eastern Europe can tell you what the Soviets were like. Rebellions in Sovietized countries were brutally crushed for attempting to regain their freedom - Czechoslovakia and Hungry to name the most significant. Gulags enslaving millions were not exactly what most people wanted. And the Russians had to build a wall in East Berlin to prevent people from fleeing to the West. This is in contrast to the U.S. putting up barriers trying to prevent people from getting in. What drives people from "wanting to get out" vs. "wanting to get in" is rather instructive.

The Chinese have mirrored their Russian neighbors, having crushed numerous attempts by people trying for a more democratic form of rule. Tiananmen Square, Hong Kong, and continuous threats on Taiwan are but a few examples, to say nothing of their actions in the South China Sea.

And the Russians continue making aggressive moves throughout Eastern Europe, attacking the Ukraine and harassing other former Soviet Satellites.

Crushing dissent by the people has been the norm in totalitarian states, and that has not changed for Russia or China. To suggest that they are merely keeping up with the U.S. ignores their belligerent activities in so many other areas of the world, past and present. One need look no further than China's and Russia's support for the North Koreans, yet another brutal regime totally unconcerned about the suffering of their own people, to say nothing of others.

It is one reason why the Australian Navy just agreed to buy nuclear submarine technology from the U.S. and U.K. They don't want to be victims of the current Russian/Chinese aggression anymore than most other countries in the West. And the Chinese are not following the Australian lead in building up their military. In this regard it is quite the opposite, and in total agreement with the U.S., the E.U., Japan, India, South Korea, etc. etc., etc.............

(Clearly >>The rest of the world - unsurprisingly - DOES see it the same way!<<)

Fortunately, the U.S. is not alone in pushing back against the dark powers of Russian and Chinese aggression. Only a powerful deterrence will hopefully prevent another global conflict. Happily, the Australians (mostly) see it the same way!

It should be clear that despite previous assurances that wars of annihilation will be prevented due to their very nature, there are no guarantees that concept will always dominate military strategy.

Even Germany is expressing its concern over the South China Sea and any attempts to limit access*. They have sent a warship to the area to highlight free navigation of the seas as defined by long-established international laws and norms. The Associated Press report notes:

"It is Germany’s first time to participate in the mission, which started in 2018 and has been joined by New Zealand, Australia, the United States, Canada, Britain, France and Japan."

end quote

And German involvement appears to be increasing. Quoting from the article again:

"It plans to dispatch military aircraft next year and a fleet of frigates and supply ships within two to three years...."

and further notes:

"Japanese officials say Chinese vessels routinely violate Japanese territorial waters around the islands in the East China Sea, sometimes threatening fishing boats."

end quotes

It should be clear that these are the actions of a country attempting to force its will on others. To permit such behavior only invites more of the same. The peace-seeking countries of the world need to send these unambiguous signals, that such activities will not be tolerated, and that collectively they have the means to enforce such positions.


"German navy chief vows long-term commitment to Indo-Pacific"

* https://apnews.com/article/united-na...a88460fa02bae6

The head of British intelligence has similar opinions about the threat of China to global peace and security, as well as other threats from Russia and Iran (1,2).

We should all be well informed on the issues of nations which place nefarious goals ahead of peace and prosperity.

Vigilance and effective responses to real threats is the price we must pay when trying to avoid global conflicts.

Appeasement is the last thing we should resort to. Any doubts, read some history about how that works out (3). The British know full well about the need for countermeasures against nations with overly aggressive tendencies.

Being nice is not in this playbook.


"MI6 spy chief says China, Russia, Iran top UK threat list"

1. https://apnews.com/article/technolog...69c670982a28a2


"MI6 boss warns of China 'debt traps and data traps'"

2. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59474365


"Munich Agreement"

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement