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Thread: Operation Yellow Hammer

  1. #1 Operation Yellow Hammer 
    Ascended Member Ascended's Avatar
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    Today the UK government, after an instruction from British Parliament, finally released the operation Yellow Hammer assessments. These are the impact assessments of the emergency Brexit planning operation the UK Government has sort to keep secret from the British public.

    Please also bear in mind that these documents were originally labelled "Base Scenario Planning Assumptions", despite having since been re-designated. This is also confirmed by the way each section is written.

    (https://assets.publishing.service.go...ptions_CDL.pdf)


    Last edited by Ascended; September 12th, 2019 at 10:38 AM. Reason: Amended Best to Base.
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    Brassica oleracea Strange's Avatar
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    This is just a summary of the conclusions. They should really have released a lot more information.

    The redacted section is about refineries closing, resulting industrial action and chaos:
    15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.
    (From the Sunday Times journalist who covered the original leaked document)

    This is presumably why the Govt has 1800 troops on standby to ensure fuel deliveries.


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    Cheers for posting an unredacted section 15 Strange. I remember reading some the news coverage around these assessments back in August, but the government denied they were accurate. I think when they were originally leaked they were labelled as base scenario at the time. But I would challenge government over this claim that what they have published are actually worse case scenarios, very sceptical over how, "Member States may act in a way which would also benefit the UK (e.g. energy for Ireland).", can be read other than as base scenario, likewise, "Demand for energy will be met and there will be no disruption to electricity or gas interconnectors.".

    Completely agree they should have released more information, but to me, this seems like they are still trying to mislead everyone, I don't believe the intention was or is to properly inform everybody. They just appear to want to play down the potential consequences as much as they can get away, whilst the actual advice for members of the public and private companies on the government website is risible.
    Last edited by Ascended; September 12th, 2019 at 10:39 AM. Reason: Amended Best to Base.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

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  5. #4  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Today the UK government, after an instruction from British Parliament, finally released the operation Yellow Hammer assessments. These are the impact assessments of the emergency Brexit planning operation the UK Government has sort to keep secret from the British public.

    Please also bear in mind that these documents were originally labelled "Best Case Scenario Planning Assumptions", despite having since been re-designated. This is also confirmed by the way each section is written.

    (https://assets.publishing.service.go...ptions_CDL.pdf)
    Some wrong information here. The original version was titled base scenario, not "best case".

    It's true Gove is trying to play it all down, but we don't help by exaggerating in the opposite direction.
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  6. #5  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    This is just a summary of the conclusions. They should really have released a lot more information.

    The redacted section is about refineries closing, resulting industrial action and chaos:
    15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.
    (From the Sunday Times journalist who covered the original leaked document)

    This is presumably why the Govt has 1800 troops on standby to ensure fuel deliveries.
    Interesting. However I read in the FT a piece questioning this. It is what the refiners are saying, in the hope of lobbying for a tax treatment that is more protectionist towards UK refining, but it may be that the predictions of shot-term closures are a bit hyperbolic. After all, if you have a shutdown, you still have huge fixed costs. I do not believe they would sack all the workforce the moment the new tax system came in. Seems more likely to me they would run, even at a loss, while trying to work something out and only throw in the sponge once they were sure it would not get better.
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  7. #6  
    Ascended Member Ascended's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Today the UK government, after an instruction from British Parliament, finally released the operation Yellow Hammer assessments. These are the impact assessments of the emergency Brexit planning operation the UK Government has sort to keep secret from the British public.

    Please also bear in mind that these documents were originally labelled "Best Case Scenario Planning Assumptions", despite having since been re-designated. This is also confirmed by the way each section is written.

    (https://assets.publishing.service.go...ptions_CDL.pdf)
    Some wrong information here. The original version was titled base scenario, not "best case".

    It's true Gove is trying to play it all down, but we don't help by exaggerating in the opposite direction.

    Cheers exchemist, I will correct it.
    “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.”

    Bertrand Russell
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  8. #7  
    ox
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    "The Sunday Times has reported that Yellowhammer is one of three scenarios being studied, with the other two being Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Black Swan, a disaster scenario."
    Does Black Swan mean we'll be crossing the Channel in dinghies?
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  9. #8  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    "The Sunday Times has reported that Yellowhammer is one of three scenarios being studied, with the other two being Kingfisher, involving a support package for distressed British businesses, and Black Swan, a disaster scenario."
    Does Black Swan mean we'll be crossing the Channel in dinghies?
    Private Eye has amusingly dubbed Operation Yellowhammer "Operation Browntrousers".

    But provided the EU grants the further extension that Bozo is going to have to grovel for, when he duly fails to get a different deal from May's, we should be able to avoid it.
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