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Thread: Brexit Progress Update #2

  1. #101  
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    Meanwhile, it looks as if what remains of the UK steel industry may be on the way out, thanks to Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48303436
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  2. #102  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    I've seen no reports of effects so far. I do recall reading earlier this year that Europe would be a likely beneficiary of a rebalancing of trade flows away from the China-US route. The UK might possibly see some of this, I suppose.
    Did the UK take a hit financially when it began its proceeding to leave the EU? I believe I remember reading somewhere it may have. I believe I recall London being a hub for European trading before Brexit came to be.

    Getting back on topic, do you know which markets in Europe and the UK may be effected by the US China trade war?
    Yes. The pound fell sharply and the Bank of England had to take a lot of remedial measures to prevent the risk of a recession - successfully. But Brexit is really more of a drip-feed of bad news, as investment dries up, the car makers and financiers decamp elsewhere, British Steel asks for more government help, and so on. It will take five years before the full effects are felt, as is in fact true of most changes in economic policy.

    A bit like with climate change, we see plenty of warning signs but obtuse and stubborn people, wedded to a fantasy, are able to brush them aside if they try hard. They have a name for anything like this, calling it "Project Fear". A very useful term, enabling them to dismiss as mere propaganda all the warnings, from institutions and organisations as diverse as the Confederation of British Industry, the Trades Union Congress, the Bank of England, the Civil Service and about 95% of economists.
    I am sorry to hear the value of the Pound and investments in the UK have taken a hit so far under Brexit. Will Brexit eventually lead to an increase in the value of the Pound and an increase in the value of investments in the UK in the long run? Do most people in the UK support Brexit?
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  3. #103  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am not sure if this qualifies as Brexit discussion but has the US China trade war effected Brexit or the UK negatively?
    Not so much direct effects,I think but perhaps it informs peoples views on globalization.

    This ongoing trade dispute seems part posturing,part substantial.

    Let's hope it clears the air as a silver lining and provides a lesson to people in the medium term.

    To my mind any slowdown in the global economy is a "good" thing if it gives us an unwitting extra year or two to gear up to the carbon free economy we are told we must see in.
    If we could eliminate carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels we will be one step closer to providing a cleaner healthier world for ourselves and future generations here on Earth. The alternative to living on a solar thermal energy fueled boiling atmosphere on a planet Earth with run away carbon dioxide levels is living in space somewhere and we are nowhere near that level of scientific understanding and technology yet.
    Im going to suggest the mods group all the US/China trade war posting into one seperate thread ( they arent Brexit related)
    I am sorry for going off topic there.
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  4. #104  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am not sure if this qualifies as Brexit discussion but has the US China trade war effected Brexit or the UK negatively?
    Not so much direct effects,I think but perhaps it informs peoples views on globalization.
    What is the opinion on globalization in the UK under Brexit?
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post



    Let me remind you of the question on the ballot paper.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...look-like.html

    Hands up how many of you on this thread actually voted?
    I get sick and tired of hearing people spouting out their political views who can't be bothered to vote.

    Would you have expected a list of outcomes on the voting slip, such as:
    'In the event of a leave vote resulting in a no deal or bad deal, should there be a second referendum?'
    'By leaving would you be prepared for economic sacrifices?'
    'Who would you nominate the last person to leave Britain to turn out the lights?'
    I most definitely did vote leave, as a majority of the voter turnout did, and yet here we are nearly three years on going to the polls next Thursday to elect MEP's. I will be voting for the Brexit Party run by our Nigel. I have just down loaded the Brexit Party app onto my iPhone, and I am considering becoming a registered supporter. Thinking about the European elections of years gone by, I recall that I once voted for a Natural Law Party dude, apparently they were all proficient in yogic flying.
    YES! I remember it well, and was amused to find that Youtube still has a copy of their election broadcast, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=438UKM1Av1g. complete with.......yogic flying.
    Good find, brought a smile to my face.
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  6. #106  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post



    Let me remind you of the question on the ballot paper.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...look-like.html

    Hands up how many of you on this thread actually voted?
    I get sick and tired of hearing people spouting out their political views who can't be bothered to vote.

    Would you have expected a list of outcomes on the voting slip, such as:
    'In the event of a leave vote resulting in a no deal or bad deal, should there be a second referendum?'
    'By leaving would you be prepared for economic sacrifices?'
    'Who would you nominate the last person to leave Britain to turn out the lights?'
    I most definitely did vote leave, as a majority of the voter turnout did, and yet here we are nearly three years on going to the polls next Thursday to elect MEP's. I will be voting for the Brexit Party run by our Nigel. I have just down loaded the Brexit Party app onto my iPhone, and I am considering becoming a registered supporter. Thinking about the European elections of years gone by, I recall that I once voted for a Natural Law Party dude, apparently they were all proficient in yogic flying.
    And what percentage of the total able voting populace ACTUALLY turned out? The waffle about the "majority" only goes so far what you see that a minority of able voters actually voted
    There was a huge 72.2% turn out for the EU referendum. I suggest that in the future, before you open your yap, do some research, here is the link.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org....nt-information
    Last edited by Dave Wilson; May 16th, 2019 at 11:44 PM. Reason: spelling
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  7. #107  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am sorry to hear the value of the Pound and investments in the UK have taken a hit so far under Brexit. Will Brexit eventually lead to an increase in the value of the Pound and an increase in the value of investments in the UK in the long run? Do most people in the UK support Brexit?
    No, the Pound will stay weaker and the country's borrowing costs will tend to be higher. Manufacturing investment will be weaker in the long run. The big advantage the UK has had is participation in the EU Single Market, combined with being an English-speaking nation with flexible and stable law, including labour laws. This winning formula will be gone for good. The Hard Brexit advocates think we can trade with the EU on simple WTO terms, without suffering any disadvantage. This is false. Being outside the Single Market will impose a lot of non-tariff hurdles to import and export activities. The auto industry, which to be economic depends on just-in-time delivery systems for components and sub-assemblies, will be especially badly hit. It will probably wither away almost completely over the next decade, if we do not retain Single Market access.

    The country is very evenly split between Leavers and Remainers. Leavers tend to be older and less well educated than Remainers. Recent opinion surveys (now almost 3 years after the referendum) tend to suggest that maybe there is tiny margin in favour of Remain but the differences are too small to be reliable indicators. This even split is reflected in the UK Parliament, which is why it is proving impossible to progress towards leaving on terms agreed with the EU.

    There is no majority in Parliament for any of the options and the leadership of both main parties is so p1sspoor that party discipline has broken down, so that the leaders cannot deliver the votes of their MPs in support of any "official" party line they try to set out. Furthermore the Leave/Remain split runs right through the middle of both main parties and also the voters that normally support them. So any Brexit policy they adopt is doomed to alienate a large chunk of their voters. It is the perfect SNAFU.
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  8. #108  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am not sure if this qualifies as Brexit discussion but has the US China trade war effected Brexit or the UK negatively?
    Not so much direct effects,I think but perhaps it informs peoples views on globalization.
    What is the opinion on globalization in the UK under Brexit?
    I can't really say but the UK should ,in part have a special take on it in one aspect; like the US( actually much more so) it effectively was (in very large part) the globalization agent in its history.

    Where other regions might see globalization as an opportunity it may be that historically dominant economic/military/political powers have to adapt to a certain amount of downsides (certainly in their self image)

    Of course there is no real choice in the matter but politicians can get elected pretending ,or even convincing themselves otherwise.
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  9. #109  
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    You may laugh at yogic flying, but only because you couldn't get into the lotus position so never gave it a try. I did give it a try. As I can still get into the lotus position I'll put it on my to do list.
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Complete-Bo.../dp/0923569278
    It's a better answer to world peace than party politics, that's for sure.
    Like to see Boris do it.
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  10. #110  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post



    Let me remind you of the question on the ballot paper.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...look-like.html

    Hands up how many of you on this thread actually voted?
    I get sick and tired of hearing people spouting out their political views who can't be bothered to vote.

    Would you have expected a list of outcomes on the voting slip, such as:
    'In the event of a leave vote resulting in a no deal or bad deal, should there be a second referendum?'
    'By leaving would you be prepared for economic sacrifices?'
    'Who would you nominate the last person to leave Britain to turn out the lights?'
    I most definitely did vote leave, as a majority of the voter turnout did, and yet here we are nearly three years on going to the polls next Thursday to elect MEP's. I will be voting for the Brexit Party run by our Nigel. I have just down loaded the Brexit Party app onto my iPhone, and I am considering becoming a registered supporter. Thinking about the European elections of years gone by, I recall that I once voted for a Natural Law Party dude, apparently they were all proficient in yogic flying.
    And what percentage of the total able voting populace ACTUALLY turned out? The waffle about the "majority" only goes so far what you see that a minority of able voters actually voted
    There was a huge 72.2% turn out for the EU referendum. I suggest that in the future, before you open your yap, do some research, here is the link.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org....nt-information

    www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journalist/electoral-commission-media-centre/party-and-election-finance-to-keep/vote-leave-fined-and-referred-to-the-police-for-breaking-electoral-law
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  11. #111  
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    Late news - breakdown of talks between Labor and May. Now what?
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  12. #112  
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    Conservative leadership elections. I doubt their new leader will be able to push through a no-deal Brexit and so it may be a general election.

    But it is as clear as mud to me.
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  13. #113  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Conservative leadership elections. I doubt their new leader will be able to push through a no-deal Brexit and so it may be a general election.

    But it is as clear as mud to me.
    I agree. Even if the Tories choose Bozo or some other crash-out merchant, how will he achieve it? The risible claim from Bozo himself is that he will go to Brussels and "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement. That is balls. He, of all people, will get nowhere with that, fast. The deal will not be re-opened, period. Added to which, Bozo is regarded with utter contempt and loathing everywhere on the Continent, after his insufferably arrogant and facetious performance as Foreign Minister.

    So after he has failed at that, what next? He may, I suppose, try to allow the extension to run out and allow a no-deal Brexit by default, on Hallowe'en. But Parliament will pass another motion to prevent that and if he ignores it there will be a vote of no confidence that will bring down his government. So then we will be into a general election with nothing resolved, requiring yet another extension to our EU membership, which will infuriate the Oxes and Dave Wilsons and thereby siphon votes away from Bozo and towards Les Faragistes, letting in a Labour/Lib Dem/ SNP coalition government. So Bozo's reign would be short and ignominious.

    If the Tory party is wise, it will walk itself back from no-deal under a more pragmatic and flexible leader such as Gove. But I am afraid the party shows signs of being panicked by Farage into trying to ape him. That simply cannot be done, by any party facing the realities of being actually in government. We could be witnessing a very ugly moment in British politics in which the Tory party destroys itself, leaving a vacuum on the Right that will be filled by some very unsavoury people and ideas.
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  14. #114  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Conservative leadership elections. I doubt their new leader will be able to push through a no-deal Brexit and so it may be a general election.

    But it is as clear as mud to me.
    I agree. Even if the Tories choose Bozo or some other crash-out merchant, how will he achieve it? The risible claim from Bozo himself is that he will go to Brussels and "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement. That is balls. He, of all people, will get nowhere with that, fast. The deal will not be re-opened, period. Added to which, Bozo is regarded with utter contempt and loathing everywhere on the Continent, after his insufferably arrogant and facetious performance as Foreign Minister.

    So after he has failed at that, what next? He may, I suppose, try to allow the extension to run out and allow a no-deal Brexit by default, on Hallowe'en. But Parliament will pass another motion to prevent that and if he ignores it there will be a vote of no confidence that will bring down his government. So then we will be into a general election with nothing resolved, requiring yet another extension to our EU membership, which will infuriate the Oxes and Dave Wilsons and thereby siphon votes away from Bozo and towards Les Faragistes, letting in a Labour/Lib Dem/ SNP coalition government. So Bozo's reign would be short and ignominious.

    If the Tory party is wise, it will walk itself back from no-deal under a more pragmatic and flexible leader such as Gove. But I am afraid the party shows signs of being panicked by Farage into trying to ape him. That simply cannot be done, by any party facing the realities of being actually in government. We could be witnessing a very ugly moment in British politics in which the Tory party destroys itself, leaving a vacuum on the Right that will be filled by some very unsavoury people and ideas.
    Nice to be mentioned in despatches by the exchemist. Anyway the next scheduled General Election is 5th May 2022, it is a very long way off. In my opinion the Conservative Party will go for a snap General Election ( can they do this? ) once Mrs May steps down, which I think will be very soon. Jacob Rees-Mogg is my preferred candidate for the job, he did once propose a Conservative coalition with UKIP, he could possibly propose a coalition with the Brexit Party if they are able to run and win seats in a snap General Election.
    Last edited by Dave Wilson; May 19th, 2019 at 04:06 AM. Reason: spelling
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  15. #115  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Conservative leadership elections. I doubt their new leader will be able to push through a no-deal Brexit and so it may be a general election.

    But it is as clear as mud to me.
    I agree. Even if the Tories choose Bozo or some other crash-out merchant, how will he achieve it? The risible claim from Bozo himself is that he will go to Brussels and "renegotiate" the withdrawal agreement. That is balls. He, of all people, will get nowhere with that, fast. The deal will not be re-opened, period. Added to which, Bozo is regarded with utter contempt and loathing everywhere on the Continent, after his insufferably arrogant and facetious performance as Foreign Minister.

    So after he has failed at that, what next? He may, I suppose, try to allow the extension to run out and allow a no-deal Brexit by default, on Hallowe'en. But Parliament will pass another motion to prevent that and if he ignores it there will be a vote of no confidence that will bring down his government. So then we will be into a general election with nothing resolved, requiring yet another extension to our EU membership, which will infuriate the Oxes and Dave Wilsons and thereby siphon votes away from Bozo and towards Les Faragistes, letting in a Labour/Lib Dem/ SNP coalition government. So Bozo's reign would be short and ignominious.

    If the Tory party is wise, it will walk itself back from no-deal under a more pragmatic and flexible leader such as Gove. But I am afraid the party shows signs of being panicked by Farage into trying to ape him. That simply cannot be done, by any party facing the realities of being actually in government. We could be witnessing a very ugly moment in British politics in which the Tory party destroys itself, leaving a vacuum on the Right that will be filled by some very unsavoury people and ideas.
    Nice to be mentioned in despatches by the exchemist. Anyway the next scheduled General Election is 5th May 2022, it is a very long way off. In my opinion the Conservative Party will go for a snap General Election ( can they do this? ) once Mrs May steps down, which I think will be very soon. Jacob Rees-Mogg is my preferred candidate for the job, he did once propose a Conservative coalition with UKIP, he could possibly propose a coalition with the Brexit Party if they are able to run and win seats in a snap General Election.
    I don't believe JRM will stand. If he did, I do not believe he would stand any chance of making it onto the shortlist of two that MPs decide, before it goes out to the Tory membership for final selection of the winner.

    But you raise an interesting scenario. Bozo, or whoever it is, goes to the country on a no-deal Brexit ticket and hopes enough seats would be won by either Tory or Faragiste MPs to achieve a combined majority for a no deal exit. Presumably though, to make this work, there would need to be an agreement beforehand with Les Faragistes, to stop them cannnibalising each other's vote at constituency level. If they don't do that, what will happen is that Labour or Lib Dems will win more of the marginals, since the hard Brexit vote will be split. And then a left of centre coalition will come to power, causing the entire strategy to backfire completely.
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  16. #116  
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    Nigel Farage not happy because he had milk shake thrown over him when he prefers beer.
    Have a feeling the Silly Party are on course for victory, but it won't make any difference to Brexit.
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    Yes, that was absolutely shocking news, a radicalised remainer throwing a milk shake at our Nigel. People have always thrown things at politicians, but it used to be the odd egg or flour bomb. However this radicalised remainer dude must be very affluent, because the milk shake he threw was a 5.25 Five Guys Banana and Salted Caramel Shake. The mind boggles.
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  18. #118  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Yes, that was absolutely shocking news, a radicalised remainer throwing a milk shake at our Nigel. People have always thrown things at politicians, but it used to be the odd egg or flour bomb. However this radicalised remainer dude must be very affluent, because the milk shake he threw was a 5.25 Five Guys Banana and Salted Caramel Shake. The mind boggles.
    Part of the undemocratic metropolitan Remainer elite, no doubt, for which the ex-mining village of Throckley is notorious.
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  19. #119  
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    Not sure how long it's taken me, but this whole extended debate has proved one thing which is politicians are boring.
    In fact they are not only more boring than accountants they are exponentially more boring.
    They have brains that are hard wired for endless repetition and indecision.
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  20. #120  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Not sure how long it's taken me, but this whole extended debate has proved one thing which is politicians are boring.
    In fact they are not only more boring than accountants they are exponentially more boring.
    They have brains that are hard wired for endless repetition and indecision.
    You have not been paying attention, then. It is not indecision, it is passionate argument and dispute. The "indecision" is an outcome of democracy: the voters refused to give May's government a majority. If we had no Parliament - the body whose powers the Leavers were so keen to see reinstated, as they see it - the decision would have been made long ago.
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  21. #121  
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    Meanwhile....another triumph of Brexit is British Steel going bust (orders drying up). Probable end of 5,000 jobs in Scunthorpe - and it also supports another 20,000 jobs in its supply chain, according to the FT. Lincolnshire was a strong Leave-voting area in the referendum. Well done chaps, let's move on and shoot ourselves in the other foot, too, by crashing out with no deal and thereby destroying the auto industry. You know it makes sense.
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  22. #122  
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    Obviously we need to find a scapegoat for the collapse of BS. What better than the Westminster indecision about Brexit. Ticks a lot of boxes. Of the Tory free market model and Labour nationalisation model which would you go for? If you go back to the miners strikes then we needed to keep the mines open even when demand for coal fell. It's all about supply and demand and there is only demand for cheaper steel.
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  23. #123  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Obviously we need to find a scapegoat for the collapse of BS. What better than the Westminster indecision about Brexit. Ticks a lot of boxes. Of the Tory free market model and Labour nationalisation model which would you go for? If you go back to the miners strikes then we needed to keep the mines open even when demand for coal fell. It's all about supply and demand and there is only demand for cheaper steel.
    It's also about the tariffs on exports to the EU that BS would have faced in a no deal Brexit. That is the killer. Orders dried up.

    Oh well, maybe it was doomed anyway. Look on the bright side: soon Bozo may finally win his bet with Cameron when they were both at Eton and make it to Prime Minister.

    Who better to crusade against the elite, eh? Cometh the hour, cometh the buffoon.
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  24. #124  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Oh well, maybe it was doomed anyway.
    If something has a beginning it has an end, just like the coal industry. We need to move to a greener economy. We don't live in the Holocene any more. It's the Anthropocene and we have to cut out all heavy industry sooner or later.

    Look on the bright side: soon Bozo may finally win his bet with Cameron when they were both at Eton and make it to Prime Minister.

    Who better to crusade against the elite, eh? Cometh the hour, cometh the buffoon.
    You forget the other buffoons. The International Marxist by the name of Jeremy Corbyn. The hopeless 'Mrs May'. Both rooted in the past and no vision for the future.
    I don't know what the turnout is going to be today but I turned up at 10.30 to find I was the only one at the polling station.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Oh well, maybe it was doomed anyway.
    If something has a beginning it has an end, just like the coal industry. We need to move to a greener economy. We don't live in the Holocene any more. It's the Anthropocene and we have to cut out all heavy industry sooner or later.

    Look on the bright side: soon Bozo may finally win his bet with Cameron when they were both at Eton and make it to Prime Minister.

    Who better to crusade against the elite, eh? Cometh the hour, cometh the buffoon.
    You forget the other buffoons. The International Marxist by the name of Jeremy Corbyn. The hopeless 'Mrs May'. Both rooted in the past and no vision for the future.
    I don't know what the turnout is going to be today but I turned up at 10.30 to find I was the only one at the polling station.
    I went at the same time and there was a steady trickle. But of course all the people of working age go early or late.
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  26. #126  
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    Bad day for grey May.
    Disappointed she will hold on for a couple of weeks then a leadership battle when the public are WAITING, proving that party politics is all that matters to Westminster.
    Realists like me demand Brexit. If that means Scotland will leave the Union, so be it. Scots are occasionally British but only when it suits them to have a dual identity. The Northern Irish are both Irish and British depending what suits them. The Welsh may not be keen on a union if the other two leave.
    That leaves England, bar far the most populous country in the UK to decide and control its own future.
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  27. #127  
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    "Realisits"

    What about the majority of "realists" under 40 who dont want to leave and whom you will be fucking over by forcing a hard brexit?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Bad day for grey May.
    Disappointed she will hold on for a couple of weeks then a leadership battle when the public are WAITING, proving that party politics is all that matters to Westminster.
    Realists like me demand Brexit. If that means Scotland will leave the Union, so be it. Scots are occasionally British but only when it suits them to have a dual identity. The Northern Irish are both Irish and British depending what suits them. The Welsh may not be keen on a union if the other two leave.
    That leaves England, bar far the most populous country in the UK to decide and control its own future.
    Fantasists, you mean.

    But I read an interesting article here about how a crash-out could happen: https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...-stopped-mps-0

    It seems indeed that Bozo or whomever could crash us out and it would be hard for Parliament to stop him. However the political problem would be that either a vote of no confidence would follow, precipitating a general election, or he would be unable to get any legislation through. So it would be in effect a kind of suicide strategy, to achieve the goal at the expense of losing the government and his premiership. Do we think Bozo is the man for that, I wonder?
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    Voting for EU parliament is going on now. We should know by Monday what the current attitude toward Brexit is.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Voting for EU parliament is going on now. We should know by Monday what the current attitude toward Brexit is.
    The composition of the EU parliament will have no effect at all on this issue. The Irish border issue will remain exactly the same and so will the EU's determination to maintain the integrity of their Single Market and Customs Union. These are foundational features of the union.
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    Amazing how the normally ice-cold 'Mrs May' showed a bit of emotion at the end.
    Remoaners will be happy with Bojo as the next PM because he might effectively deliver remain, by losing a general election to the mad Marxist.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Amazing how the normally ice-cold 'Mrs May' showed a bit of emotion at the end.
    Remoaners will be happy with Bojo as the next PM because he might effectively deliver remain, by losing a general election to the mad Marxist.
    We could indeed get the worst of all worlds, with a crash-out followed by a no-confidence vote in Bozo and then him losing an election to the Marx Bros. The latter would revel in the chaos it would unleash, as they could blame it on the Evil Tories and use it as an excuse to bring in all kinds of draconian changes to taxation and ownership of businesses, thereby doing even more damage to the economy.

    But, as I've said before, it seems more likely that we would get a hung parliament again, but this time with a coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangement between Labour and Lib-Dems and/or SNP. That would prevent the Marx Bros from doing anything completely crazy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Voting for EU parliament is going on now. We should know by Monday what the current attitude toward Brexit is.
    The composition of the EU parliament will have no effect at all on this issue. The Irish border issue will remain exactly the same and so will the EU's determination to maintain the integrity of their Single Market and Customs Union. These are foundational features of the union.
    My thought concerned the outcome of the U.K. vote. Although unlikely it is possible the anti-Brexits will get a majority and a new referendum would be called.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    My thought concerned the outcome of the U.K. vote. Although unlikely it is possible the anti-Brexits will get a majority and a new referendum would be called.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Voting for EU parliament is going on now. We should know by Monday what the current attitude toward Brexit is.
    The composition of the EU parliament will have no effect at all on this issue. The Irish border issue will remain exactly the same and so will the EU's determination to maintain the integrity of their Single Market and Customs Union. These are foundational features of the union.
    My thought concerned the outcome of the U.K. vote. Although unlikely it is possible the anti-Brexits will get a majority and a new referendum would be called.
    Oh I see. The trouble is that the EU elections won't be much of a guide to how people in the UK feel about Brexit. The no-dealers have a purpose-designed banner to rally to, viz. Farage's Great Brexit Betrayal Party, which is expected to get a third of the vote. However the Remainers and soft-Brexiters do not have a single-issue vehicle to support. Their vote will be split among a range of existing parties, all of which command various loyalties that are unrelated to Brexit, obscuring the Brexit contribution to how they voted.

    I am quite sure there will be a lot of crowing from no-dealers if the Brexit Betrayal party tops the poll as expected, but it will not be a clear guide to opinion in the country. Opinion polls will give a far better indication.
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    The U.K vote for Euro parliament appears to indicate that a referendum today would have about 55% for remain.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    The U.K vote for Euro parliament appears to indicate that a referendum today would have about 55% for remain.
    Not sure one can draw that conclusion. Turnout was under 40%, and Labour's unclear position makes it hard to draw firm conclusions.

    But if I were a no-dealer, I'd think twice about inviting a 2nd referendum, certainly.
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    The Tories are now in complete turmoil. Even Boris summoned to appear in court.
    The legacy of May, or what?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The Tories are now in complete turmoil. Even Boris summoned to appear in court.
    The legacy of May, or what?
    Partly. But in truth I think the Tories would always have ended in turmoil over this. It was their obsession with the EU that elevated it from a background issue into one of tribal identity on which people have now taken sides. There is no agreement within the Tory party on it, never mind the country.

    The inherent contradictions involved in leaving are what has produced the gridlock. What I blame May for is stupidly laying down mutually contradictory "red lines" at the start (Nick Timothy's idea), without first thinking through how they could be accommodated in a negotiation, and then allowing them to be adopted as articles of religious faith by a large section of her party. So now we have the absurd situation that all compromise options are being ruled out, leaving only a self-harming "WTO forever" crash out or Remain as the choices.

    Bozo has no idea how he can manage this and neither has anyone else, except possibly Gove who is carefully keeping schtum about his ideas for now. Raab seems to think he can just defy parliament and crash us out, but if he does his government will fall and he will be into a general election double-quick, which he will lose.

    May's Withdrawal deal is in fact not a bad start point, but she utterly failed to do any work on selling it to the Commons and instead allowed the ERG and the Daioupaigh to make all the running by trashing it! All part of her Asperger's-lite personality (or lack thereof). So here we are.
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    Sort of implies the Tory party will split into 2 - the light blues (remain or deal leave) and the dark blues (no deal leave).

    If Boris does appear in court because of his 350 million claim then the floodgates will open to attempt to prosecute any politician who might have told fake news.
    End of politics as we know it. No more blue party on the right, red on the left, silly in the centre.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Sort of implies the Tory party will split into 2 - the light blues (remain or deal leave) and the dark blues (no deal leave).

    If Boris does appear in court because of his 350 million claim then the floodgates will open to attempt to prosecute any politician who might have told fake news.
    End of politics as we know it. No more blue party on the right, red on the left, silly in the centre.
    It might actually prove a rather effective deterrent against the dissemination of fake news, a problem we all seem to recognise as a real one.

    If politicians felt they could get done for lying to the public, I think that would have a salutary effect on public discourse. I cannot see that lying to the public serves any legitimate purpose, so the "free speech" argument strikes me as specious. But we'll have to see what m'learned friends have to say about it.
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    It's time for a well-defined referendum: remain vs. leave with no deal.
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    I am a little late to the party, but well done to our Nigel and his Brexit Party in the very recent EU elections, an outstanding victory. Coming up very soon is the bye-election in Peterborough on 6th June 2019. A resounding victory for the Brexit Party is certainly on the cards , and it would leave many sphincter muscles twitching in the two main political parties.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Sort of implies the Tory party will split into 2 - the light blues (remain or deal leave) and the dark blues (no deal leave).

    If Boris does appear in court because of his 350 million claim then the floodgates will open to attempt to prosecute any politician who might have told fake news.
    End of politics as we know it. No more blue party on the right, red on the left, silly in the centre.
    It might actually prove a rather effective deterrent against the dissemination of fake news, a problem we all seem to recognise as a real one.

    If politicians felt they could get done for lying to the public, I think that would have a salutary effect on public discourse. I cannot see that lying to the public serves any legitimate purpose, so the "free speech" argument strikes me as specious. But we'll have to see what m'learned friends have to say about it.
    Yes, fake news is a problem, it is just a shame that the nice Mr Blair didn't write on the side of a bus that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    It's time for a well-defined referendum: remain vs. leave with no deal.
    Absolutely no point in a referendum of the flavour you suggest, it looks like the UK will be leaving the EU at the end of October 2019 with a no deal.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Coming up very soon is the bye-election in Peterborough on 6th June 2019. A resounding victory for the Brexit Party is certainly on the cards , and it would leave many sphincter muscles twitching in the two main political parties.
    I doubt it. In bye-elections people register their protest vote. Then all is forgotten. When it comes to a general election they fall back on the side of the established parties.
    If there should be a general election called this year I doubt if the Brexit party would get many seats, and quite probably no seats at all as they are a one policy party.
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  47. #147  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Sort of implies the Tory party will split into 2 - the light blues (remain or deal leave) and the dark blues (no deal leave).

    If Boris does appear in court because of his 350 million claim then the floodgates will open to attempt to prosecute any politician who might have told fake news.
    End of politics as we know it. No more blue party on the right, red on the left, silly in the centre.
    It might actually prove a rather effective deterrent against the dissemination of fake news, a problem we all seem to recognise as a real one.

    If politicians felt they could get done for lying to the public, I think that would have a salutary effect on public discourse. I cannot see that lying to the public serves any legitimate purpose, so the "free speech" argument strikes me as specious. But we'll have to see what m'learned friends have to say about it.
    Yes, fake news is a problem, it is just a shame that the nice Mr Blair didn't write on the side of a bus that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction.
    Agree 100%. I'd love to see him done for that.
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  48. #148  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    It's time for a well-defined referendum: remain vs. leave with no deal.
    Absolutely no point in a referendum of the flavour you suggest, it looks like the UK will be leaving the EU at the end of October 2019 with a no deal.
    It remains a bit hard to see how that can be made to happen, as my earlier posts indicate. It would require a government prepared to lose a vote of no confidence and precipitate an election they would be most unlikely to win. But perhaps I am missing something. How do you see it coming about?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Coming up very soon is the bye-election in Peterborough on 6th June 2019. A resounding victory for the Brexit Party is certainly on the cards , and it would leave many sphincter muscles twitching in the two main political parties.
    When it comes to a general election they fall back on the side of the established parties.
    Not so, I think it was the 2015 General Election, where in Scotland the SNP took 56 seats of the 59 seats available. Labour had always done very well in Scotland up to that point.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    It's time for a well-defined referendum: remain vs. leave with no deal.
    Absolutely no point in a referendum of the flavour you suggest, it looks like the UK will be leaving the EU at the end of October 2019 with a no deal.
    It remains a bit hard to see how that can be made to happen, as my earlier posts indicate. It would require a government prepared to lose a vote of no confidence and precipitate an election they would be most unlikely to win. But perhaps I am missing something. How do you see it coming about?
    The EU has insisted that there is no room for further negotiations after the UK MP's rejected Mrs May's latest deal.In my humble opinion, this means that the UK and EU, have been unable to reach a withdrawal agreement, so we are out with a no deal at the end of October 2019.
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  51. #151  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    It remains a bit hard to see how that can be made to happen, as my earlier posts indicate. It would require a government prepared to lose a vote of no confidence and precipitate an election they would be most unlikely to win. But perhaps I am missing something. How do you see it coming about?
    The EU has insisted that there is no room for further negotiations after the UK MP's rejected Mrs May's latest deal.In my humble opinion, this means that the UK and EU, have been unable to reach a withdrawal agreement, so we are out with a no deal at the end of October 2019.
    But have you read my earlier posts on that? If a new leader tries to run the clock down so that we crash out on Hallowe'en, he will suffer a vote of no confidence and his government will fall. This will lead to a general election he will almost certainly lose.

    Do you think any of the likely leaders of the Conservative party will risk that? Which ones?

    What seems to me far more likely is that, faced with that prospect, the new leader will try to get a Withdrawal deal passed, or will resort to some other way to break the deadlock in Parliament, possibly even a 2nd referendum, i.e. on the actual terms available to the UK this time.
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  52. #152  
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    'When it comes to a general election they fall back on the side of the established parties.'

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Not so, I think it was the 2015 General Election, where in Scotland the SNP took 56 seats of the 59 seats available.
    So the SNP is not an established party. It was formed in 1934. Brexit Party was formed in April 2019.

    Labour had always done very well in Scotland up to that point.
    The Scottish Tories did well up until 1960 and at one point held most seats.
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  53. #153  
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    So Donald backs Boris.
    And no doubt Boris backs Donald.
    Is this a case of I'll scratch your back...?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    So Donald backs Boris.
    And no doubt Boris backs Donald.
    Is this a case of I'll scratch your back...?
    Bozo will be cursing Trump for this. It will not do him any good at all in the Tory leadership election stakes. Trump is widely despised, even in the Tory party and I do not think they will welcome his shoving his oar in to help his mate.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    'When it comes to a general election they fall back on the side of the established parties.'

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Not so, I think it was the 2015 General Election, where in Scotland the SNP took 56 seats of the 59 seats available.
    So the SNP is not an established party. It was formed in 1934. Brexit Party was formed in April 2019.

    Labour had always done very well in Scotland up to that point.
    The Scottish Tories did well up until 1960 and at one point held most seats.
    But that was 60 years ago.
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    It looks to me that there will be another referendum with the terms for leaving (May's deal or no deal) as the options, since a new PM doesn't want to be a loser.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    It looks to me that there will be another referendum with the terms for leaving (May's deal or no deal) as the options, since a new PM doesn't want to be a loser.
    I don't think that would get through parliament. It would not be possible for the government to decide the question to be put without getting Parliament's agreement.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    It remains a bit hard to see how that can be made to happen, as my earlier posts indicate. It would require a government prepared to lose a vote of no confidence and precipitate an election they would be most unlikely to win. But perhaps I am missing something. How do you see it coming about?
    The EU has insisted that there is no room for further negotiations after the UK MP's rejected Mrs May's latest deal.In my humble opinion, this means that the UK and EU, have been unable to reach a withdrawal agreement, so we are out with a no deal at the end of October 2019.
    But have you read my earlier posts on that? If a new leader tries to run the clock down so that we crash out on Hallowe'en, he will suffer a vote of no confidence and his government will fall. This will lead to a general election he will almost certainly lose.

    Do you think any of the likely leaders of the Conservative party will risk that? Which ones?

    What seems to me far more likely is that, faced with that prospect, the new leader will try to get a Withdrawal deal passed, or will resort to some other way to break the deadlock in Parliament, possibly even a 2nd referendum, i.e. on the actual terms available to the UK this time.
    Yes, I did read your posts, however a successful motion of no confidence is a very rare thing. The last successful motion of no confidence was in 1979, and before that, the last successful motion of no confidence was in 1924. You could argue that we are due one, interesting times ahead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    [Trump is widely despised, even in the Tory party and I do not think they will welcome his shoving his oar in to help his mate.
    They despised Thatcher and she got 3 terms. When it comes to the crunch voters in this closed race are likely to vote for Boris.
    Trump may well get a second term judging by the opposition candidates.
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    [QUOTE=Dave Wilson;623477]
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post

    But have you read my earlier posts on that? If a new leader tries to run the clock down so that we crash out on Hallowe'en, he will suffer a vote of no confidence and his government will fall. This will lead to a general election he will almost certainly lose.

    Do you think any of the likely leaders of the Conservative party will risk that? Which ones?

    What seems to me far more likely is that, faced with that prospect, the new leader will try to get a Withdrawal deal passed, or will resort to some other way to break the deadlock in Parliament, possibly even a 2nd referendum, i.e. on the actual terms available to the UK this time.
    Yes, I did read your posts, however a successful motion of no confidence is a very rare thing. The last successful motion of no confidence was in 1979, and before that, the last successful motion of no confidence was in 1924. You could argue that we are due one, interesting times ahead.
    The reason they are so rare is simple: governments normally have a majority of loyal MPs that prevents such a motion succeeding.

    That is not what we have here. The government even with the DUP added, only needs 4 votes to go against it, instead of with it, to lose. If a future PM were to try to crash the country out of the EU, against the already expressed will of Parliament, there are at least 4 Tory MPs who would put country before party - as they would see it - and vote the government out of office.

    So yes, we live in rare times. This is what gives Parliament the influence over the government at the moment. It is idle for any Tory leadership candidate to make bold promises about taking us out of the EU, without having a strategy to convince Parliament to go along with it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    The reason they are so rare is simple: governments normally have a majority of loyal MPs that prevents such a motion succeeding.

    That is not what we have here. The government even with the DUP added, only needs 4 votes to go against it, instead of with it, to lose. If a future PM were to try to crash the country out of the EU, against the already expressed will of Parliament, there are at least 4 Tory MPs who would put country before party - as they would see it - and vote the government out of office.

    So yes, we live in rare times. This is what gives Parliament the influence over the government at the moment. It is idle for any Tory leadership candidate to make bold promises about taking us out of the EU, without having a strategy to convince Parliament to go along with it.
    Do they think that a GE would return a no-deal coalition?

    Do they think that they can finesse an automatic no-deal as the UK "falls off the cliff"?

    Do they think there will be popular unrest which will scare the Remainers into accepting a no-deal?

    Something has to give . I can't see what but I would be happy with something along the lines of a May deal along with an advisory plebiscite.
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    The reason they are so rare is simple: governments normally have a majority of loyal MPs that prevents such a motion succeeding.

    That is not what we have here. The government even with the DUP added, only needs 4 votes to go against it, instead of with it, to lose. If a future PM were to try to crash the country out of the EU, against the already expressed will of Parliament, there are at least 4 Tory MPs who would put country before party - as they would see it - and vote the government out of office.

    So yes, we live in rare times. This is what gives Parliament the influence over the government at the moment. It is idle for any Tory leadership candidate to make bold promises about taking us out of the EU, without having a strategy to convince Parliament to go along with it.
    Do they think that a GE would return a no-deal coalition?

    Do they think that they can finesse an automatic no-deal as the UK "falls off the cliff"?

    Do they think there will be popular unrest which will scare the Remainers into accepting a no-deal?

    Something has to give . I can't see what but I would be happy with something along the lines of a May deal along with an advisory plebiscite.
    My understanding is that the Tories are terrified of risking a general election before Brexit has been settled, because the Great Brexit Betrayal Party will split their vote, destroying them.

    What someone might calculate is that they could crash us out by letting the Hallowe'en deadline come and go without asking for an extension, accept the vote of no confidence, then face the ensuing general election on a platform of having at least got us out. The problem with that is the risk that they would not get a majority, since the voters who want either to remain or to do a deal to save the economy will vote against them. No poll so far has suggested that anything more than a third of voters actually wants a no-deal crash-out. It would be a huge gamble.

    My feeling is that more and more politicians are seeing the virtues o a second referendum to solve the dilemma. But indeed the question then is what choices to put to the public. If it is no deal vs remain, no deal will lose. So there has to be a deal option, I think.
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    What if we Brexit with no deal, and then a GE is held which puts Labour in power? Would they be in a position to overturn it?

    On Friday TM will not be Tory leader, but will remain as PM. So who leads the party?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    What if we Brexit with no deal, and then a GE is held which puts Labour in power? Would they be in a position to overturn it?

    On Friday TM will not be Tory leader, but will remain as PM. So who leads the party?
    I don't see how. We'd be out. But what Labour (or a Labour/SNP/LibDem coalition, which seems more likely to me) could do, and probably would, is to initiate discussions on a free trade deal, starting with implementing the provisions of May's withdrawal deal, seeing as that will a prerequisite for the EU. So we'd end up in exactly the same place and the Hard Brexit leader would have sacrificed his government for nothing.

    The only hard Brexit strategy that makes sense to me is to crash out, lose a vote of no confidence and then WIN a general election, on the basis that a grateful population will be delighted by the crash-out result. Quite a gamble, I'd have thought.
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  65. #165  
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    Another day, another story.
    Having failed to secure a deal May is stepping down as leader of the blue party.
    Corbyn declares a 'fantastic victory' in the Peterborough bye-election even though Labour's vote fell 17% and the new kids on the block failed by only a few hundred votes.

    What's really happened is that May and Corbyn are both losers.
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  66. #166  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Another day, another story.
    Having failed to secure a deal May is stepping down as leader of the blue party.
    Corbyn declares a 'fantastic victory' in the Peterborough bye-election even though Labour's vote fell 17% and the new kids on the block failed by only a few hundred votes.

    What's really happened is that May and Corbyn are both losers.
    That's undeniably true, though Our Nige also scuttled off without giving any interviews, I notice. Interestingly he did not choose to stand himself. One suspects he knew it might not come off. The Lib Dems also did much better than before in Peterborough, though they still got only 12%.

    I take 2 messages from this result:

    1) Brexit, and our ensuing relationship with the EU, will now be a major issue at future elections, probably for a decade at least.

    2) The other, domestic, issues that people have voted on up to now remain important to people.

    I think this sets a natural limit on how much progress the Great Brexit Betrayal Party can make in a general election. But it will be enough to keep the Tories out of office unless they get Brexit done, which they wil struggle to do.
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  67. #167  
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    That was a very credible performance by our Nigel and his BREXIT Party in Peterborough, but you need to win the seat. They were however just a few hundred votes behind the Labour Party , how about a second bye-election, no I thought not.
    Last edited by Dave Wilson; June 7th, 2019 at 09:33 AM. Reason: missed out a word.
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  68. #168  
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    Does the outcome of this by-election forecast a possible major shift in party politics, such as occurred early in the 20th century when Liberal party faded and Labour became the opponent to Conservative?
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Does the outcome of this by-election forecast a possible major shift in party politics, such as occurred early in the 20th century when Liberal party faded and Labour became the opponent to Conservative?
    Yes ,that is quite possible. But things are so obscure (turbulent) that it is very hard to predict.
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  70. #170  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Does the outcome of this by-election forecast a possible major shift in party politics, such as occurred early in the 20th century when Liberal party faded and Labour became the opponent to Conservative?
    Doubt it. After WW1 there was a need for a socialist party. The Liberals being a party of no firm policies did not appeal to the working class who had suffered most and Labour became the party of social change.

    But it's true that the basic 2 party system of left and right, with a silly party in the middle is now under threat by the establishment's blocking of Brexit.

    The chances of Brexit happening at all are still slim. One Tory candidate for leader has not done himself any good by confessing to being a hard drug user. One member of the Brexit party has not done herself any good by making homophobic comments.
    There is always a battle for the votes of 'middle England'. At the moment no party is winning these votes.
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  71. #171  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Does the outcome of this by-election forecast a possible major shift in party politics, such as occurred early in the 20th century when Liberal party faded and Labour became the opponent to Conservative?
    Doubt it. After WW1 there was a need for a socialist party. The Liberals being a party of no firm policies did not appeal to the working class who had suffered most and Labour became the party of social change.

    But it's true that the basic 2 party system of left and right, with a silly party in the middle is now under threat by the establishment's blocking of Brexit.

    The chances of Brexit happening at all are still slim. One Tory candidate for leader has not done himself any good by confessing to being a hard drug user. One member of the Brexit party has not done herself any good by making homophobic comments.
    There is always a battle for the votes of 'middle England'. At the moment no party is winning these votes.
    Euro parliament vote was high for Lib.Dem. and Green. Could this be a viable middle party or is it just one issue (anti-Brexit)?
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  72. #172  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Euro parliament vote was high for Lib.Dem. and Green. Could this be a viable middle party or is it just one issue (anti-Brexit)?
    Lib Dems were in a government coalition with the Tories until recently wiped out. Like the Tories they are now effectively a party without a leader.
    Personally I can't see the Greens getting many MP's, but I don't possess a crystal ball.
    Legacy of Theresa May is revealed by the new cover of Private Eye. It's a blank page. What a mess we're in over failure to deliver Brexit.
    Now, Boris Johnson, Britain's potential new PM and answer to Trump, wants to give tax cuts to the rich, but not the poor.
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  73. #173  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    Euro parliament vote was high for Lib.Dem. and Green. Could this be a viable middle party or is it just one issue (anti-Brexit)?
    Lib Dems were in a government coalition with the Tories until recently wiped out. Like the Tories they are now effectively a party without a leader.
    Personally I can't see the Greens getting many MP's, but I don't possess a crystal ball.
    Legacy of Theresa May is revealed by the new cover of Private Eye. It's a blank page. What a mess we're in over failure to deliver Brexit.
    Now, Boris Johnson, Britain's potential new PM and answer to Trump, wants to give tax cuts to the rich, but not the poor.
    Just like Trump in fact.

    The NHS is on its knees, the cost of social care is going through the roof, as the population ages, and this twat wants to give money away to the sorts of well-off people that vote in Tory party constituency associations. The nakedness of the self-interest and cynicism is breathtaking.

    They should go for Gove or Hunt, I think.
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  74. #174  
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    Bojo is a mugwump for sure, but wasn't Gove on Stars in their Eyes being introduced as 'Michael Gove is Joe 90!'
    https://www.google.com/search?q=mich...w=1280&bih=929
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  75. #175  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Bojo is a mugwump for sure, but wasn't Gove on Stars in their Eyes being introduced as 'Michael Gove is Joe 90!'
    https://www.google.com/search?q=mich...w=1280&bih=929
    Yes. Either Joe 90 or Gollum.

    Looks as if the preposterous Bozo will get it. Final two may well be him and 'Unt. The Bufton Tuftons in the shires will pick Bozo out of those two, no question.

    Then we get out the popcorn and see how long it takes before the UK has to agree to May's Withdrawal deal. Because that is where all roads ultimately lead, even if we crash out first for a bit. Unless of course Bozo throws in the sponge and asks for another referendum instead. It's funny the way all the candidates save Rory Stewart (a sort of strange Stephen Hawking lookalike) present the issue as simply one of being decisive and determined, when that in fact makes no difference.

    The Tories are clutching at straws. They know they are finished if they do not deliver Brexit but nobody has any real idea how to do it. They are desperate to to do it, somehow, anyhow, and hope to move on. It will funny hearing Bozo trying his sunlit uplands speech, when everybody now knows in their hearts of hearts that Brexit is a turkey.
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  76. #176  
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    Sajid Javid has posted a video with his dog Bailey. That's going to be bad news for the others.
    Holding a baby is next.
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  77. #177  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Sajid Javid has posted a video with his dog Bailey. That's going to be bad news for the others.
    Holding a baby is next.
    Let us hope that not any one of the leadership candidates holds up a black baby. The Right Honourable Gentleman, David Lammy ,would take to his key board, to tell us that holding up a black baby is white saviour stuff.
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  78. #178  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Sajid Javid has posted a video with his dog Bailey. That's going to be bad news for the others.
    Holding a baby is next.
    Let us hope that not any one of the leadership candidates holds up a black baby. The Right Honourable Gentleman, David Lammy ,would take to his key board, to tell us that holding up a black baby is white saviour stuff.
    You're not wrong there. Lammy can spot a potential race-related bandwagon at 400yds and will sprint to jump on.
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  79. #179  
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    This thread is getting a lot of views. Nearly 26,000. How come? Could it be from Leavers, Remoaners or software?
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  80. #180  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    This thread is getting a lot of views. Nearly 26,000. How come? Could it be from Leavers, Remoaners or software?
    I reckon that our Nigel and his new BREXIT Party, are keeping tabs on the arch remainer, exchemist.
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  81. #181  
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    Yeah, probably.
    How many Tories will defect to Nigel's party if Bojo, the likely next PM does not deliver Brexit, I wonder.
    It's all old school tie. Learned today that Bojo and Rory both went to Eton and the same Oxford college.
    Where does it leave the little people who went to state school and voted Brexit but have been horribly let down?
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  82. #182  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Yeah, probably.
    How many Tories will defect to Nigel's party if Bojo, the likely next PM does not deliver Brexit, I wonder.
    It's all old school tie. Learned today that Bojo and Rory both went to Eton and the same Oxford college.
    Where does it leave the little people who went to state school and voted Brexit but have been horribly let down?
    Yes, both Eton and Balliol I see.

    It's a shame we still get all these Old Etonians, especially when in the 60s and 70 we had a good run of grammar school PMs (Wilson, Heath, Thatcher). Ted Heath was at Balliol. Wilson Jesus, Thatcher Somerville.

    It does make one suspect the grammar schools were able to get at least some people of modest birth a lot further than today's comprehensives seem able to.
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  83. #183  
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    Most exciting thing on the TV debate was the tie incident.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ate-tie-brexit

    Some chicken. Some neck.
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  84. #184  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Most exciting thing on the TV debate was the tie incident.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ate-tie-brexit

    Some chicken. Some neck.
    Rory Stewart was probably having a panic attack when he removed his tie. I just wish that they would get this leadership contest over and done with, then the winner can start doing some actuall leading.
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  85. #185  
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    The Tories are good at one thing, publicity. I'm wondering when the public are going to get sick and tired of their publicity machine in action.
    If Bojo becomes PM I don't think he'll last long before he puts his foot in it, with Labour the next government.
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  86. #186  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The Tories are good at one thing, publicity. I'm wondering when the public are going to get sick and tired of their publicity machine in action.
    If Bojo becomes PM I don't think he'll last long before he puts his foot in it, with Labour the next government.
    I agree with the first part. But as I've said before I think we'll most likely get another hung parliament.
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  87. #187  
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    One thing is certain. We won't be leaving at the end of October. How many more broken promises before the public lose faith completely?
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  88. #188  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    One thing is certain. We won't be leaving at the end of October. How many more broken promises before the public lose faith completely?
    Even that is not certain. There are growing signs now that the EU may have had enough of this and have given up on the UK, especially now that Bozo will be PM. So they may refuse to extend the deadline on Hallowe'en, even if Bozo were to ask. We may get the crash out you seek after all. I wouldn't like to be a farmer or in automotive engineering. But no doubt the Stratford on Avon tourist trade will do well, given the weaker pound.
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  89. #189  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    But no doubt the Stratford on Avon tourist trade will do well, given the weaker pound.
    Don't worry about the Stratford-upon-Avon tourist trade.
    They have great form in pulling in the tourists based on Shakespeare's plays when there is no evidence he wrote them, or his birthplace when there is no evidence he was born there, or Ann Hathaway's cottage when there is no evidence she ever lived there, or Mary Arden's house (now rebranded as her farm) because she never lived there either. That's all you need to know about Stratford. It's one of history's biggest fibs.

    So Bojo's domestic row makes today's headlines. No such thing as bad publicity.
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  90. #190  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    That's all you need to know about Stratford. It's one of history's biggest fibs.
    All we've got is your word on that.
    "[Dywyddyr] makes a grumpy bastard like me seem like a happy go lucky scamp" - PhDemon
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  91. #191  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    That's all you need to know about Stratford. It's one of history's biggest fibs.
    All we've got is your word on that.
    Wiki quite clearly states that William Shakespeare was believed to have been born in what is sold to tourists as his birthplace. In other words, there is no hard evidence.
    Wiki also states that Anne Hathaway was believed to have lived in the village of Shottery, location of 'Anne Hathaway's cottage'. In other words, there is no hard evidence.
    The home of Shakespeare's mother which was sold to tourists for a century as Mary Arden's house was finally revealed as not her home at all. She lived in a nearby tied cottage.
    The authorship of Shakespeare has never been proven. It is only believed he wrote the plays. Could have been Francis Bacon, Earl of Oxford, Fulke Greville or a hundred other candidates.

    If you have knowledge about Shakespeare then let's hear it.
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  92. #192  
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    What is wikis "exact" wording. Or to put it another way, is there any evidence presented its NOT.

    And no, for the umpteenth time. You made the assertion, you back them up. Thats how this works.
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  93. #193  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    What is wikis "exact" wording.
    Look up the topics yourself. Shakespeare's birthplace, Anne Hathaway's cottage. Shakespeare authorship.
    You might also find there are no original manuscripts, and there is no evidence that William Shakespeare could even write a complete sentence. He left no letters.

    Let's hope the 'genius' duck can throw some light on Shakespeare.
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  94. #194  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Wiki quite clearly states that William Shakespeare was believed to have been born in what is sold to tourists as his birthplace. In other words, there is no hard evidence.
    Wiki also states that Anne Hathaway was believed to have lived in the village of Shottery, location of 'Anne Hathaway's cottage'. In other words, there is no hard evidence.
    On the other hand what is there to say that they weren't? I.e. other than you is there actually any particular controversy over where he was born? I can't find any academic squabble over the topic.
    The "believed" part is because there is (not unusually for the period) no actual birth record.
    Of course you could argue that that means he probably wasn't born at all.
    Wiki also states that "Anne Hathaway's Cottage is a twelve-roomed farmhouse where Anne Hathaway, the wife of William Shakespeare, lived as a child". No "believed to have" there.
    Look up the topics yourself.

    No. YOU made the assertions therefore it's up to you support them. Telling people to go off and look up stuff for themselves is not on. Final warning.
    Last edited by Dywyddyr; June 23rd, 2019 at 03:38 PM.
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  95. #195  
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    What does this argument about Shakespeare have to do with Brexit ???????
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  96. #196  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    What does this argument about Shakespeare have to do with Brexit ???????
    Bugger all.
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  97. #197  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mathman View Post
    What does this argument about Shakespeare have to do with Brexit ???????
    From an article in the Guardian newspaper:

    "When the director Rupert Goold planned his Richard III at London’s Almeida theatre in the summer of 2016, he fancied modelling Shakespeare’s most repellent villain on Boris Johnson. Both, Goold said, were “physically strange and yet sexually predatory, inherently comic, outside the rules, of questionable motives, ultimately ambitious”. Coincidentally, Johnson had signed a lucrative contract to write a biography of Shakespeare, which he shelved when he decided to rally Brexiters in the referendum campaign and ensure that England would revert to being Shakespeare’s 'sceptred isle', remaindered by history."
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  98. #198  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Wiki also states that "Anne Hathaway's Cottage is a twelve-roomed farmhouse where Anne Hathaway, the wife of William Shakespeare, lived as a child". No "believed to have" there.
    Quote from Wiki:
    Hathaway is believed to have grown up in Shottery, a village just to the west of Stratford-upon-Avon, Warwickshire, England. She is assumed to have grown up in the farmhouse that was the Hathaway family home, which is located at Shottery and is now a major tourist attraction for the village
    Just as Shakespeare's tomb is inside Holy Trinity church in Stratford. Last time I looked they were charging 3 to view it. He must have been a small guy because there isn't enough room for a whole body.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/...peares-7613441
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am sorry to hear the value of the Pound and investments in the UK have taken a hit so far under Brexit. Will Brexit eventually lead to an increase in the value of the Pound and an increase in the value of investments in the UK in the long run? Do most people in the UK support Brexit?
    No, the Pound will stay weaker and the country's borrowing costs will tend to be higher. Manufacturing investment will be weaker in the long run. The big advantage the UK has had is participation in the EU Single Market, combined with being an English-speaking nation with flexible and stable law, including labour laws. This winning formula will be gone for good. The Hard Brexit advocates think we can trade with the EU on simple WTO terms, without suffering any disadvantage. This is false. Being outside the Single Market will impose a lot of non-tariff hurdles to import and export activities. The auto industry, which to be economic depends on just-in-time delivery systems for components and sub-assemblies, will be especially badly hit. It will probably wither away almost completely over the next decade, if we do not retain Single Market access.

    The country is very evenly split between Leavers and Remainers. Leavers tend to be older and less well educated than Remainers. Recent opinion surveys (now almost 3 years after the referendum) tend to suggest that maybe there is tiny margin in favour of Remain but the differences are too small to be reliable indicators. This even split is reflected in the UK Parliament, which is why it is proving impossible to progress towards leaving on terms agreed with the EU.

    There is no majority in Parliament for any of the options and the leadership of both main parties is so p1sspoor that party discipline has broken down, so that the leaders cannot deliver the votes of their MPs in support of any "official" party line they try to set out. Furthermore the Leave/Remain split runs right through the middle of both main parties and also the voters that normally support them. So any Brexit policy they adopt is doomed to alienate a large chunk of their voters. It is the perfect SNAFU.
    So it seems the UK is divided between Leavers and Remainers. It sounds like leaving the EU and the Single Market may hurt the UK economically.
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  100. #200  
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mmatt9876 View Post
    I am sorry to hear the value of the Pound and investments in the UK have taken a hit so far under Brexit. Will Brexit eventually lead to an increase in the value of the Pound and an increase in the value of investments in the UK in the long run? Do most people in the UK support Brexit?
    No, the Pound will stay weaker and the country's borrowing costs will tend to be higher. Manufacturing investment will be weaker in the long run. The big advantage the UK has had is participation in the EU Single Market, combined with being an English-speaking nation with flexible and stable law, including labour laws. This winning formula will be gone for good. The Hard Brexit advocates think we can trade with the EU on simple WTO terms, without suffering any disadvantage. This is false. Being outside the Single Market will impose a lot of non-tariff hurdles to import and export activities. The auto industry, which to be economic depends on just-in-time delivery systems for components and sub-assemblies, will be especially badly hit. It will probably wither away almost completely over the next decade, if we do not retain Single Market access.

    The country is very evenly split between Leavers and Remainers. Leavers tend to be older and less well educated than Remainers. Recent opinion surveys (now almost 3 years after the referendum) tend to suggest that maybe there is tiny margin in favour of Remain but the differences are too small to be reliable indicators. This even split is reflected in the UK Parliament, which is why it is proving impossible to progress towards leaving on terms agreed with the EU.

    There is no majority in Parliament for any of the options and the leadership of both main parties is so p1sspoor that party discipline has broken down, so that the leaders cannot deliver the votes of their MPs in support of any "official" party line they try to set out. Furthermore the Leave/Remain split runs right through the middle of both main parties and also the voters that normally support them. So any Brexit policy they adopt is doomed to alienate a large chunk of their voters. It is the perfect SNAFU.
    So it seems the UK is divided between Leavers and Remainers. It sounds like leaving the EU and the Single Market may hurt the UK economically.
    Correct on both counts.
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