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Thread: Brexit Progress Update

  1. #201  
    Brassica oleracea Strange's Avatar
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    Interesting and utterly bizarre story about the network of influence between a variety of scumbags like Farage, Assange, Bannon, Putin, ....

    This is a power network that involves Wikileaks and Farage, and Cambridge Analytica and Farage, and Robert Mercer and Farage. Steve Bannon, former vice president of Cambridge Analytica, and Farage. It’s Nigel Farage and Brexit and Trump and Cambridge Analytica and Wikileaks… and, if the Senate intelligence committee and the House intelligence committee and the FBI are on to anything at all, somewhere in the middle of all that, Russia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nholy-alliance
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  2. #202  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Interesting and utterly bizarre story about the network of influence between a variety of scumbags like Farage, Assange, Bannon, Putin, ....

    This is a power network that involves Wikileaks and Farage, and Cambridge Analytica and Farage, and Robert Mercer and Farage. Steve Bannon, former vice president of Cambridge Analytica, and Farage. It’s Nigel Farage and Brexit and Trump and Cambridge Analytica and Wikileaks… and, if the Senate intelligence committee and the House intelligence committee and the FBI are on to anything at all, somewhere in the middle of all that, Russia.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...nholy-alliance
    Interesting I grant you but, Christ, what a badly written article! Who is this ghastly woman? She cannot write a grammatical sentence. Some of this is just trying scratch Guardian readers' prejudices, e.g. the irrelevant inclusion of the founder of Cambridge Analytica having apparently been to Eton - so effing what? And then lists of trigger words like "power" and "patronage" and "spider's webs", without actually delineating anything very concrete.

    I think I'll wait and see whether any of this makes the daily press rather than just the leftie Sundays.
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  3. #203  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    She cannot write a grammatical sentence.
    Well, she is Welsh.
    Without wishing to overstate my case, everything in the observable universe definitely has its origins in Northamptonshire -- Alan Moore
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  4. #204  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    She cannot write a grammatical sentence.
    Well, she is Welsh.
    ..and indeed almost as hysterical as John Humphrys......
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    She cannot write a grammatical sentence.
    Well, she is Welsh.
    Reported for racist comment.
    Latinos are Republican. They just don't know it yet.
    Ronald Reagan
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  6. #206  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    She cannot write a grammatical sentence.
    Well, she is Welsh.
    Reported for racist comment.
    Some of my best friends are Welsh!
    Without wishing to overstate my case, everything in the observable universe definitely has its origins in Northamptonshire -- Alan Moore
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  7. #207  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    She cannot write a grammatical sentence.
    Well, she is Welsh.
    Reported for racist comment.
    Some of my best friends are Welsh!
    Oy vey!
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  8. #208  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Interesting I grant you but, Christ, what a badly written article! Who is this ghastly woman? She cannot write a grammatical sentence. Some of this is just trying scratch Guardian readers' prejudices, e.g. the irrelevant inclusion of the founder of Cambridge Analytica having apparently been to Eton - so effing what? And then lists of trigger words like "power" and "patronage" and "spider's webs", without actually delineating anything very concrete.
    I tend to agree about the implications of the significance of some the meetings.

    For example, this article (about the Trump-Russia-Clintion farrago) seems pretty balanced and confirms that Cambridge Analytics contacted Assange but he refused to help them (not surprisingly - both because he is an arrogant tool and because he doesn't like the uSA).
    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/27...idge-analytica
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  9. #209  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Interesting I grant you but, Christ, what a badly written article! Who is this ghastly woman? She cannot write a grammatical sentence. Some of this is just trying scratch Guardian readers' prejudices, e.g. the irrelevant inclusion of the founder of Cambridge Analytica having apparently been to Eton - so effing what? And then lists of trigger words like "power" and "patronage" and "spider's webs", without actually delineating anything very concrete.
    I tend to agree about the implications of the significance of some the meetings.

    For example, this article (about the Trump-Russia-Clintion farrago) seems pretty balanced and confirms that Cambridge Analytics contacted Assange but he refused to help them (not surprisingly - both because he is an arrogant tool and because he doesn't like the uSA).
    https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/27...idge-analytica
    Yup that seems a far better written and more objective analysis. I don't see myself any smoking gun yet, but if Papadopoulos has turned King's Evidence (or, ironically, POTUS's evidence, haha) I suppose more may come out. Manafort looks as if he could do time, but not for anything he did while working for The Chump.

    P.S. I find it depressing that even formerly illustrious papers such as the Grauniad are now indulging in echo-chamber journalism. That article was dreadful. If you ever look at the Torygraph it is similarly ghastly - full of Brexsh1t obsession and climate change denial. Even the weeklies, the Spectator and the New Stoadsperson, are finding it harder to include material that is not polemic for massaging the prejudices of their readership.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    My dear fellow ox, I think you misunderstand, we "Remoaners", as you so charmingly like to characterise us wish only the best for our country and any good news at the moment is more than welcome, please don't be under some illusion that we wish our country to fail when we choose to point out the negative effects of the referendum decision. We just want others to fully understand what is occurring, we all have the right to be as informed as possible about the future & fate of our country otherwise we would all be rather ill-equipped to fully exercise our democratic rights & responsibilities.

    Given that we now have wage growth reduced by 75% from 2015 levels, have slumped economically to become one of the slowest growing economies in the entire European Union, now have a housing market which appears to be in freefall across whole swathes of our country, combining with inflation rate rises & personal debt levels reaching unsustainable levels all now threatening the possibility of negative equity & even mass repossessions, our NHS suffering the double whammy of both a funding & recruitment crisis, 40,000 nursing vacancies alone are still unfilled, we have a crime rate that has sky rocked perhaps most disturbingly in the rate of increase for crimes of violence & hate crimes, we all still living with uncertainty especially our businesses that are finding it particularly difficult to plan for the future, our currency continues to underperforming pre-referendum levels by a considerable margin, all in spite of the massive 250 billion in economic stimulus by the BoE Governor & indeed the further 150 billion in extra bank lending to prop up the housing market. So I say to you ox, any good news you can bring to us given the current situation is most welcome indeed!
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  12. #212  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Given that we now have wage growth reduced by 75% from 2015 levels, have slumped economically to become one of the slowest growing economies in the entire European Union
    In a period when the minimum wage is becoming the living wage, there are always people who will complain. People today are the wealthiest in my memory. Nobody starves. Just about everybody is well dressed, own several cars per household, take foreign holidays.
    We are not one of the slowest growing economies if you factor out tiny states like Malta and Cyprus who are doing well. We are close to the average, and above Germany, France and Italy to name but a few.

    now have a housing market which appears to be in freefall across whole swathes of our country, combining with inflation rate rises & personal debt levels reaching unsustainable levels all now threatening the possibility of negative equity & even mass repossessions,
    Housing is always a complex issue. When it overheats it's likely to fall and be more affordable. One problem is the amount of housing stock now in private landlord ownership. Everywhere I look there are new homes being built, but all too often they end up in the hands of buy to let landlords and foreign speculators.
    There was far more negative equity and repossessions in the early 1990's.

    our NHS suffering the double whammy of both a funding & recruitment crisis, 40,000 nursing vacancies alone are still unfilled,
    I'm not clear what that has to do with Brexit, which only started last year. As long as I can remember the NHS has been in crisis, certainly going back to Thatcher. The mistake has been relying on agency and foreign staff.

    we have a crime rate that has sky rocked perhaps most disturbingly in the rate of increase for crimes of violence & hate crimes,
    It would be more disturbing if you had mentioned murder and armed robbery which is still relatively low.

    we all still living with uncertainty especially our businesses that are finding it particularly difficult to plan for the future, our currency continues to underperforming pre-referendum levels by a considerable margin, all in spite of the massive 250 billion in economic stimulus by the BoE Governor & indeed the further 150 billion in extra bank lending to prop up the housing market. So I say to you ox, any good news you can bring to us given the current situation is most welcome indeed!
    Can you tell me when we ever lived in an age of certainty?
    The currency has been improving and is expected to recover more in 2018.
    There is hardly ever good news in the economy, and again it has been like that ever since I can remember.

    Nearly forgot, you haven't mentioned the crisis at The Science Forum.
    Now, that I do blame on Brexit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In a period when the minimum wage is becoming the living wage, there are always people who will complain. People today are the wealthiest in my memory. Nobody starves. Just about everybody is well dressed, own several cars per household, take foreign holidays.
    My dear chap please tell me you are joking, that you don't actually believe this, we are now living in age where fully a third of the adult population don't even have a hundred pounds in their bank accounts, where millions are in rent arrears having had their welfare cut & where food banks have become ubiquitous, indeed never have the most vulnerable ever been quite so vulnerable!

    Responsibility for the social, financial & disparity issues which now plague our nation cannot be laid entirely at door of the referendum, on this we may agree, however with the looming spectre of Brexit there is now an entirely new level of uncertainty hanging over all our heads, with little to go on perhaps our only indication of the storm of chaos threatening to engulf us all, the onset of rapid economic decline in wake of the referendum decision (despite huge economic stimulus) & the warnings from almost every major organisation about negative effects that would ensue.

    With European Union membership, for many years now we've been privileged to enjoy harmonisation of standards, rules & regulations, where for the most part borders & nationality have been made irrelevant, where we've been free to plan & dream our futures no matter where our hearts would take us, our companies free to trade without restriction with international supply chains that were no more complicated than having factories next door, cooperation between governments with international projects, pooled resources, collective successes & benefits, new levels of liberty, millions removed from poverty, growth & social development levels simply unachievable for countries in isolation. So much at stake, at risk, all that may be lost - yet now is the calm before the coming storm, for now, we may not know what ill winds will blow.
    Everything has its beauty, but not everyone sees it. - confucius
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  14. #214  
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    It will be very funny to watch the squirming and prevarication from the Brexshitters over Northern Ireland, now that the EU has thrown down the gauntlet by pointing out the obvious, namely that the only way to avoid razor wire right across Ireland is to have the Customs Union and Single market boundary at the Irish sea ports , North and South. In other words, N Ireland has to be semi-detached from the UK so that it can, uniquely, stay in both Customs Union and Single Market.

    The Brexshitters and the Daioupeaigh will hate this, but it seems to be the only secure way to control the movement of people and goods in both directions, to the satisfaction of both the UK and the EU. I have yet to read of ANY other proposal for solving this problem if the UK leaves the Customs Union or the Single Market. It seems to me high time the Rees-Moggs, the Bozos, the Goves and the Iain Dumcunt-Shits were forced to explain how they propose to deal with this issue in the no-deal situation that they claim would be perfectly fine.

    At all events the UK now has 2 weeks to answer this question, if they want trade talks to start before the end of the year, which is when the banks will otherwise start moving people out of London.
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    Whatever solution is found for the border situation the Brexiteers will try and spin it as some kind of success or victory, this has constantly been their saving grace, they control the narrative. No matter how bad things are going they are repeatedly given the benefit of the doubt because they've been able to persuade their supporters that the problems are all the fault of others, saboteurs, the House of Lords, British judges, the Labour Party, Jean Claude Junker, Angela Merkel, the governor of the BoE, the Uk's ambassador to the EU, even their own Conservative Chancellor!

    It will be interesting to see how they can realistically have the border at the Irish sea, I can't see the idea of British citizens needing permission from the EU to enter Northern Ireland going down well, instead of securing our borders we've effectively given an entire country to the European Union, one that the UK taxpayer will still be subsidising, oh yes the Brexit voters are going to absolutely love that one!
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  16. #216  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Whatever solution is found for the border situation the Brexiteers will try and spin it as some kind of success or victory, this has constantly been their saving grace, they control the narrative. No matter how bad things are going they are repeatedly given the benefit of the doubt because they've been able to persuade their supporters that the problems are all the fault of others, saboteurs, the House of Lords, British judges, the Labour Party, Jean Claude Junker, Angela Merkel, the governor of the BoE, the Uk's ambassador to the EU, even their own Conservative Chancellor!

    It will be interesting to see how they can realistically have the border at the Irish sea, I can't see the idea of British citizens needing permission from the EU to enter Northern Ireland going down well, instead of securing our borders we've effectively given an entire country to the European Union, one that the UK taxpayer will still be subsidising, oh yes the Brexit voters are going to absolutely love that one!
    I have believed for some time that N Ireland could well be the issue on which Brexshit founders. The only way to avoid the situation you quite rightly draw attention to is if the whole UK stays in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    So much for "taking back control", hahaha.

    The alternative is the razor wire solution, which everyone says they will not countenance, due to the danger of reigniting the Troubles.
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  17. #217  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    ...we are now living in age where fully a third of the adult population don't even have a hundred pounds in their bank accounts, where millions are in rent arrears having had their welfare cut & where food banks have become ubiquitous, indeed never have the most vulnerable ever been quite so vulnerable!
    So they should save more and indulge less. If they were to spend less on phones, fags, alcohol, junk food and gambling they might find they have a half decent bank balance and better mental and physical health.
    Did I hear today that Britain now has 63% of people overweight? Not me. My BMI is 22, well within range, and my percentage body fat is 17%, when the average is 25%. So where did I go wrong? Probably because I worked hard and was careful with my diet and my money.
    But yes, my high street is full of food banks, loan sharks, chicken and burger bars, bookmakers, charity shops, beggars. It's a hazard of living today, and no question it's all down to Brexit.

    I think it's about time we all realised that a quest for a European utopia is always going to fail.
    Europe has tried with religion. The 30 Years War led to nearly a quarter of Germany's population wiped out.
    It has tried with empire, revolution, political and race war. That led to at least 50 million deaths in the last century.
    The EU is just the latest project about to fail.
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  18. #218  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Whatever solution is found for the border situation the Brexiteers will try and spin it as some kind of success or victory, this has constantly been their saving grace, they control the narrative. No matter how bad things are going they are repeatedly given the benefit of the doubt because they've been able to persuade their supporters that the problems are all the fault of others, saboteurs, the House of Lords, British judges, the Labour Party, Jean Claude Junker, Angela Merkel, the governor of the BoE, the Uk's ambassador to the EU, even their own Conservative Chancellor!

    It will be interesting to see how they can realistically have the border at the Irish sea, I can't see the idea of British citizens needing permission from the EU to enter Northern Ireland going down well, instead of securing our borders we've effectively given an entire country to the European Union, one that the UK taxpayer will still be subsidising, oh yes the Brexit voters are going to absolutely love that one!
    I have believed for some time that N Ireland could well be the issue on which Brexshit founders. The only way to avoid the situation you quite rightly draw attention to is if the whole UK stays in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    So much for "taking back control", hahaha.

    The alternative is the razor wire solution, which everyone says they will not countenance, due to the danger of reigniting the Troubles.

    What is David Davis actually proposing as a solution? On the one hand, he's saying that Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union or Single Market is unacceptable, yet the Northern Irish border must remain open, how exactly is that supposed to work? If there is no external border to the Single Market or the Customs Union inside of Ireland (i.e. at the current existing Northern Irish border), then what exactly prevents or would stop the Customs Union & Single Market from extending into Northern Ireland or indeed across the whole island of Ireland itself, even beyond that, into England, Scotland & Wales, if we accept that the Irish Sea is merely a physical obstacle, (not a preventative border). Equally, that the whole of the UK would then have a foothold inside the Single Market & Customs Union, something which surely the rest of the EU's 27 member states & indeed EEA members are very unlikely to accept or allow. It just appears likely the Brexit Secretary is hoping most Brexit voters don't have the acuity to understand his position is just ridiculous nonsense!
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  19. #219  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Whatever solution is found for the border situation the Brexiteers will try and spin it as some kind of success or victory, this has constantly been their saving grace, they control the narrative. No matter how bad things are going they are repeatedly given the benefit of the doubt because they've been able to persuade their supporters that the problems are all the fault of others, saboteurs, the House of Lords, British judges, the Labour Party, Jean Claude Junker, Angela Merkel, the governor of the BoE, the Uk's ambassador to the EU, even their own Conservative Chancellor!

    It will be interesting to see how they can realistically have the border at the Irish sea, I can't see the idea of British citizens needing permission from the EU to enter Northern Ireland going down well, instead of securing our borders we've effectively given an entire country to the European Union, one that the UK taxpayer will still be subsidising, oh yes the Brexit voters are going to absolutely love that one!
    I have believed for some time that N Ireland could well be the issue on which Brexshit founders. The only way to avoid the situation you quite rightly draw attention to is if the whole UK stays in both the Single Market and the Customs Union.

    So much for "taking back control", hahaha.

    The alternative is the razor wire solution, which everyone says they will not countenance, due to the danger of reigniting the Troubles.

    What is David Davis actually proposing as a solution? On the one hand, he's saying that Northern Ireland remaining in the Customs Union or Single Market is unacceptable, yet the Northern Irish border must remain open, how exactly is that supposed to work? If there is no external border to the Single Market or the Customs Union inside of Ireland (i.e. at the current existing Northern Irish border), then what exactly prevents or would stop the Customs Union & Single Market from extending into Northern Ireland or indeed across the whole island of Ireland itself, even beyond that, into England, Scotland & Wales, if we accept that the Irish Sea is merely a physical obstacle, (not a preventative border). Equally, that the whole of the UK would then have a foothold inside the Single Market & Customs Union, something which surely the rest of the EU's 27 member states & indeed EEA members are very unlikely to accept or allow. It just appears likely the Brexit Secretary is hoping most Brexit voters don't have the acuity to understand his position is just ridiculous nonsense!
    Exactly. He is ruling out either scenario and there is no third option, so far as I can see. And I'm not the only one: there is an article on this in the New Stoadsperson: https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...ogress-ireland

    It is barmy. Even if the EU were to offer the UK free membership of the single market and the customs union while allowing us to restrict movement of people, we could not achieve the goal of restricting movement unless there was a hard border somewhere, at which people could be scrutinised before admission. So we would need it even if they didn't.

    Unless......is he arrogant enough to think that the whole of Ireland might agree to exit the single market and the customs union, just to solve the UK's problem? Then he could get the Gardai to exercise the necessary checks upon entering or leaving either Eire or the UK. But that would effectively mean the Irish agreeing to leave the EU, just to please the UK. There is zero chance of that.

    Nope, the whole thing is mad. Can Davis really be so stupid he can't see this? Or are the Brexshitters now deep into cognitive dissonance, whereby they know at one level it can't work, but at another are unable to let go of their silly swivel-eyed dream? Could be. Half of them look mad (Gove, Rees-Mogg, Redwood).
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    Excellent point exchemist.

    Given that UK government doesn't wish to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union they have to have an actual way to prevent any incursion into UK territory, now traditionally this would have been fairly straightforward and simple by having a UK border, however David Davis has ruled out having a physical preventative border between Southern Ireland (Eire) & Northern Ireland, so logically this leaves only two other sensible locations. The first of these would be the Irish Sea, but this would then separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom and leave it inside the Single Market & Customs Union, effectively under the authority of the EU, thus requiring EU permission for anything entering or exiting Northern Ireland, even though the UK Government & UK taxpayers would still hold legal & financially responsibilities towards the territory, thus Davis & his DUP Governmental allies have been quick to rule this out as a potential option.

    What we're left with, is something you've already quite correctly concluded as a total non-starter, thus having a preventative border between the UK & the EU at the Southern Irish (Eire) border, requiring Eire to leave the Single Market & Customs Union, potentially having to leave the entire EU in the process! Can't see the Irish ever going for that one!

    Back to square one, a hard border between Northern Ireland & Eire, putting the entire Northern Irish economy at risk & the Good Friday Peace Agreement in serious jeopardy, (already ruled out by the Government).

    So yes Barmy alright! It's almost as if Davis is deliberately trying to scupper any kind of EU deal to actually engineer a hard Brexit, not much else makes any kind of sense at this juncture. If the Brexit Secretary has actually got a sensible solution to this mess it's about time we were all told what it is!
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  21. #221  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    Excellent point exchemist.

    Given that UK government doesn't wish to remain in the Single Market or the Customs Union they have to have an actual way to prevent any incursion into UK territory, now traditionally this would have been fairly straightforward and simple by having a UK border, however David Davis has ruled out having a physical preventative border between Southern Ireland (Eire) & Northern Ireland, so logically this leaves only two other sensible locations. The first of these would be the Irish Sea, but this would then separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom and leave it inside the Single Market & Customs Union, effectively under the authority of the EU, thus requiring EU permission for anything entering or exiting Northern Ireland, even though the UK Government & UK taxpayers would still hold legal & financially responsibilities towards the territory, thus Davis & his DUP Governmental allies have been quick to rule this out as a potential option.

    What we're left with, is something you've already quite correctly concluded as a total non-starter, thus having a preventative border between the UK & the EU at the Southern Irish (Eire) border, requiring Eire to leave the Single Market & Customs Union, potentially having to leave the entire EU in the process! Can't see the Irish ever going for that one!

    Back to square one, a hard border between Northern Ireland & Eire, putting the entire Northern Irish economy at risk & the Good Friday Peace Agreement in serious jeopardy, (already ruled out by the Government).

    So yes Barmy alright! It's almost as if Davis is deliberately trying to scupper any kind of EU deal to actually engineer a hard Brexit, not much else makes any kind of sense at this juncture. If the Brexit Secretary has actually got a sensible solution to this mess it's about time we were all told what it is!
    But surely it CAN'T be the last option you suggest. A hard Brexshit (crash out of customs union and single market with no agreements on anything) would mean razor wire across Ireland for sure. That's my point, in part! There is no way to avoid the razor wire unless NI, at a minimum, stays in both - and the DUP may well demand the whole UK stays in both, to avoid any perception of weakening the bond between NI and the rest of the UK.

    The Hard Brexshitters are fcuked, unless they are prepared to risk a re-run of the Troubles!
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    I'm not suggesting any viable options, instead, explaining that the proposed options being discussed are all unworkable & thus demonstrating that the position of the Brexiteers is untenable. The options currently on the table were either impossible to start with, or have been made politically unacceptable by the actions of Davis & Brexiteers, even further so with the Conservative government now being in bed with the DUP.

    Please be under no illusion, I'm not disagreeing with you in any way, shape or form, everything you have said thus far is spot on! Unfortunately, however, given the tone of the discussions taking place, even those being debated on the BBC's website, it appears that people either just don't fully understand the situation, or they are living in denial over what may happen if there isn't a deal. Quite as to why so many appear to believe that there is already a viable solution on the table being openly discussed remains somewhat of a mystery, given that, strangely, none of them can seem to logically explain what this solution actually is!

    It would certainly be very interesting though to see how the Brexiteers would react to such a demand from the DUP, for the whole of the UK to stay in the Single Market & Customs Union, especially if the EU then decides to make this conditional upon the UK continuing to accept freedom of movement! The cynic in me imagines they would probably try and scupper the whole deal, whilst simultaneously attempting to place the blame for the collapse at the door of the EU. But seriously, can anyone now still honestly believe that the Brexiteers genuinely care about the fate of Northern Ireland or whether Ireland ends up being divided by razor wire, surely the only thing they truly care about is finding someone else to blame so as not to incur the wrath of their DUP coalition partners when everything hits the fan.
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  23. #223  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    I'm not suggesting any viable options, instead, explaining that the proposed options being discussed are all unworkable & thus demonstrating that the position of the Brexiteers is untenable. The options currently on the table were either impossible to start with, or have been made politically unacceptable by the actions of Davis & Brexiteers, even further so with the Conservative government now being in bed with the DUP.

    Please be under no illusion, I'm not disagreeing with you in any way, shape or form, everything you have said thus far is spot on! Unfortunately, however, given the tone of the discussions taking place, even those being debated on the BBC's website, it appears that people either just don't fully understand the situation, or they are living in denial over what may happen if there isn't a deal. Quite as to why so many appear to believe that there is already a viable solution on the table being openly discussed remains somewhat of a mystery, given that, strangely, none of them can seem to logically explain what this solution actually is!

    It would certainly be very interesting though to see how the Brexiteers would react to such a demand from the DUP, for the whole of the UK to stay in the Single Market & Customs Union, especially if the EU then decides to make this conditional upon the UK continuing to accept freedom of movement! The cynic in me imagines they would probably try and scupper the whole deal, whilst simultaneously attempting to place the blame for the collapse at the door of the EU. But seriously, can anyone now still honestly believe that the Brexiteers genuinely care about the fate of Northern Ireland or whether Ireland ends up being divided by razor wire, surely the only thing they truly care about is finding someone else to blame so as not to incur the wrath of their DUP coalition partners when everything hits the fan.
    That is exactly the conclusion I have come to as well. I suspect the game now is to stall long enough for it to be the EU (and therefore Ireland) that has to demand the razor wire, in order to exert border control over entry of goods to the EU. The Brexshitters of course also need the same border control, to stop EU immigration, but they can slipstream behind the EU's demand for it while painting the EU as black as possible.

    I read an article in yesterday's Torygraph by Charles Moore (who use to edit it, when it was still a half-serious paper), in which he claimed Ireland and the UK could "perfectly easily" come to a special arrangement over the border, if it were not for the EU's dogmatic insistence that Ireland can't have special status. But he did not explain - at all - what this "special status" he apparently advocates would need to involve. As far as I can see it would entail the whole of Ireland leaving the single market and the customs union, in effect leaving the EU, just as a favour to the UK! The breathtaking arrogance and lack of realism of that attitude may, I fear, be quite common in Hard Brexshit thinking.

    But it is I think also noteworthy that even the Torygraph, well-connected to Brexshit Tories though it is, cannot put up a Rees-Mogg, or a Daniel Hannan, or a John Redwood, or someone, with a clever explanaton of how this problem can be solved. They have no solution. There is no solution, except for special status for N Ireland.

    Pragmatically, I'd have thought that could be a big win for N Ireland, which after all voted to remain in the EU by a large margin. Their continued participation in the customs union and the single market would attract inward investment from the rest of the UK. It would be a massive shot in the arm for their economy. But the DUP would have to be reassured - somehow - that it did not threaten NI's membership of the UK. That would be hard to do, as it would look a lot like it, with passport control and customs inspection at Belfast as you board a ship or plane to the rest of the UK.
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    It has the feel that there could be some kind of a grand bargain involving the 4 parties -and the prize might also include a new atmosphere on the island of Ireland providing political stability for the foreseeable future.

    No, I can't see how it could be put together but if it really is the linchpin of any catastrophe or success scenario then perhaps some smart mind might devise a political/economic devise that would allow everyone to move forward.


    Suppose the UK really does fall off the EU cliff edge might some kind of a special status for NI in both the UK and the EU actually have benefits for Brittanicus Rumpus?

    By the way my solution to the anti EU sentiment in the lead up to the referendum might have been along the lines of the good soldier Schweik.(instead of the plonker squaddy who stayed in lines as the line took a step back**)
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  25. #225  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    It has the feel that there could be some kind of a grand bargain involving the 4 parties -and the prize might also include a new atmosphere on the island of Ireland providing political stability for the foreseeable future.

    No, I can't see how it could be put together but if it really is the linchpin of any catastrophe or success scenario then perhaps some smart mind might devise a political/economic devise that would allow everyone to move forward.


    Suppose the UK really does fall off the EU cliff edge might some kind of a special status for NI in both the UK and the EU actually have benefits for Brittanicus Rumpus?

    By the way my solution to the anti EU sentiment in the lead up to the referendum might have been along the lines of the good soldier Schweik.(instead of the plonker squaddy who stayed in lines as the line took a step back**)
    I can't see how it is a question of a "bargain", though. It is a fact that if the UK is outside the single market, tariffs and verification of compliance with EU standards for goods WILL be required. This immediately opens an opportunity for smuggling, from the UK to the EU.

    For example, I can import cheap, substandard electric irons from China, get them across the Irish border into the EU, and sell them at a price just a bit below that of the more expensive irons that comply with EU safety regulations - and make a killing, perhaps literally when they catch fire! Conversely if the UK wishes to control immigration from the EU, they MUST have border checks to stop unauthorised people getting in, or they will just take a plane to Dublin, walk across the hills and pitch up in Belfast, from where they can fly to Leeds and annoy the locals with their funny accents, or whatever it is that riles Brexshitters about them.

    These are unalterable facts. No bargain can wish them away. The hard border has to be somewhere. It is then purely a question of WHERE would be the least damaging and contentious place to put it.
    Last edited by exchemist; November 14th, 2017 at 11:02 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    The hard border has to be somewhere. It is then purely a question of WHERE would be the least damaging and contentious place to put it.
    In one line you have very succinctly summarised this entire problem. Please bear with me if I use a few more whilst explaining it for those who may not be quite so familiar with all the issues involved.

    The island of Ireland, is an island divided into two separate territories, in the south we have Eire, this is an independent country, in the north we have Northern Ireland which, although technically a country in its own right & now with its own government, it is actually a territory of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, the clue is in the name!

    Although the north & south are different, because of the long history of violence on the island, today they share an open border as part of the peace process and are able to trade freely with each other under EU rules, (though Northern Ireland still gets subsidies from the UK Government & UK tax payers because of its status as part of the UK and because it isn't as wealthy as England).

    The Irish situation at the moment works well because both North & South are both members of the EU & by extension Customs Union & Single Market, thus play by the same rules, however, now the UK wishes to leave the EU, Northern Ireland will get pulled out of the Single Market & Customs Union, that is, unless there is some kind of special arrangement, but this then would require both the EU & UK Government agreeing to it, something which at present presents some major challenges. Yet even a special arrangement for Northern Ireland still doesn't solve the issue of separation for the UK & EU without first solving the issue of where to place a hard border.

    In order for the UK to be out of the Single Market & Customs Union, it requires a hard (preventative) border between the UK & EU, equally in order to protect the EU's Customs Union & Single Market from a UK no longer following EU rules & regulations, the EU requires that a hard (preventative) border is in place between them as well. So they both need a border, it could be the same border, but for the purpose of separation a border must exist.

    Now this is the real issue, because now it is politically impossible to put that border anywhere inside, or on the island of Ireland, (to do so could destroy the peace process), the UK Conservative Government is in Coalition with Northern Irish DUP MP's who wouldn't accept a hard border between which would divide Ireland.

    So without an EU - UK border in Ireland, then it has to go somewhere inside the UK or EU and the DUP would never accept such a border inside the UK as it would separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom. Out of the 3 potential places to put the hard border, now only inside of the EU remains, but not anywhere in Ireland, thus meaning Eire would first have to agree to leave the EU and end up in some kind of open border union with the UK. The problem here is that this simply makes no sense, Eire has given no such intention that it would ever be prepared to leave the EU, also to do so from their perspective would be hugely financially damaging with almost absolutely nothing to gain.

    The only conclusion that can logically be drawn from the current situation is that no viable solution as yet exists, certainly not one that has been put forward. If a solution isn't found then Northern Ireland will be forced out of the Single Market & Customs Union, they will have a hard border imposed upon them and in all likelihood their economy will suffer a massive shock. Years of peace may be shattered if this issue becomes the catalyst for a return to violence by a population once again divided and by one that voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union yet is being ignored and shown that democracy in their country holds no value.
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  27. #227  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    These are unalterable facts. No bargain can wish them away. The hard border has to be somewhere. It is then purely a question of WHERE would be the least damaging and contentious place to put it.
    What about here?

    Irish beach returns overnight after vanishing in storms 12 years ago | The Independent
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  28. #228  
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    Some interesting facts about the Irish border.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...Kingdom_border

    We have to acknowledge there is both a land and sea border and it appears there is unlikely to be a solution which will please everybody.

    How about patrols of drones or Irish Wolfhounds.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41232991
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    Can NI be "bought off" somehow?

    It may be coming to a crunch now so what can give?
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  30. #230  
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    Ireland was once 2 land masses.
    Ireland and Plate Tectonics

    We might have to wait millions of years for a true solution.
    Unless Brexit Bulldog evolves into Brexit Wolfhound.
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    Seems like it is a big ask to expect the different parts of Ireland to willingly accept a physical border (for political/security as much as economic reasons)

    If this is the fly in the ointment why not attempt to get all of the island onboard so that most of the UK can have its hard border with the EU ?

    Can the Unionists in NI not be bribed politically and economically by the EU ,UK and the South of Ireland so that what they see themselves as giving up might in their eyes be compensated for?

    Don't ask me for details.Does the general idea have any legs?
    Last edited by geordief; November 27th, 2017 at 10:17 AM.
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  32. #232  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    If this is the fly in the ointment why not attempt to get all of the island onboard so that most of the UK can have its hard border with the EU ?
    Just as Freud did not understand women, no non Irish person understands the complexities of Ireland.
    Why, for instance do they field 2 football teams, but are united in rugby?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Why, for instance do they field 2 football teams, but are united in rugby?
    That is not exactly rocket science.This Brexit thing is a harder question
    On the other hand we will know the answer one way or the other in due course no matter the complexity of the situation.

    Well there could be a series of forks in the road.
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  34. #234  
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    Quote Originally Posted by geordief View Post
    Seems like it is a big ask to expect the different parts of Ireland to willingly accept a physical border (for political/security as much as economic reasons)

    If this is the fly in the ointment why not attempt to get all of the island onboard so that most of the UK can have its hard border with the EU ?

    Can the Unionists in NI not be bribed politically and economically by the EU ,UK and the South of Ireland so that what they see themselves as giving up might in their eyes be compensated for?

    Don't ask me for details.Does the general idea have any legs?
    There is an Irish ex-CEO of Unilever writing in today's FT who suggests a solution whereby the UK leaves the official EU customs union but agrees some sort of equivalence to it. However he does not provide any details or examples to illustrate what he means.

    Having though further about this, it seems to me the people smuggling aspect may not, after all, be a real issue. Since EU people wanting to come to the UK do so in order to be here legally, to work, they would see little point in walking across the hills illegally to Belfast and taking a boat to Britain. It is simply that May makes a big fuss about controlling our borders so that we have an inventory of who has comes in and who has left, and you obviously can't do that accurately if people can go to and from the EU in Ireland without any monitoring. So if she is prepared to give up that goal, the people thing can possibly be left alone. Which is good, as it means you probably don't need razor wire across the island.

    There will however be an incentive to smuggle goods if the UK regulatory regime does not track exactly the EU one. Maybe that can be solved if the UK agrees in perpetuity to abide by all Brussels Single Market regulations. Perhaps we can do that without being - officially - in the Single Market, just by choosing, of our own volition, to copy all Brussels diktats. (It's called taking back control, you see.) And then you would perhaps not need a border, provided the EU takes our word for it that we apply all their rules, so that we won't try to export to them chlorinated chicken or dangerous Chinese electrical goods or whatever.
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  35. #235  
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    What's all this about a 50 billion euro divorce bill?

    Summon Victor to sort it out. After 2 minutes:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsqsGWdl50w
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post

    There is an Irish ex-CEO of Unilever writing in today's FT who suggests a solution whereby the UK leaves the official EU customs union but agrees some sort of equivalence to it. However he does not provide any details or examples to illustrate what he means.

    Having though further about this, it seems to me the people smuggling aspect may not, after all, be a real issue. Since EU people wanting to come to the UK do so in order to be here legally, to work, they would see little point in walking across the hills illegally to Belfast and taking a boat to Britain. It is simply that May makes a big fuss about controlling our borders so that we have an inventory of who has comes in and who has left, and you obviously can't do that accurately if people can go to and from the EU in Ireland without any monitoring. So if she is prepared to give up that goal, the people thing can possibly be left alone. Which is good, as it means you probably don't need razor wire across the island.

    There will however be an incentive to smuggle goods if the UK regulatory regime does not track exactly the EU one. Maybe that can be solved if the UK agrees in perpetuity to abide by all Brussels Single Market regulations. Perhaps we can do that without being - officially - in the Single Market, just by choosing, of our own volition, to copy all Brussels diktats. (It's called taking back control, you see.) And then you would perhaps not need a border, provided the EU takes our word for it that we apply all their rules, so that we won't try to export to them chlorinated chicken or dangerous Chinese electrical goods or whatever.
    I am just waiting now to see what happens (re the border) since events seem to be crowding in and necessity is the mother of all invention.
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  37. #237  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    What's all this about a 50 billion euro divorce bill?
    Yes that's right, though it is not finalised. It looks as though it will be between €45-55bn or thereabouts. That is just to settle the outstanding commitments we made as members, to be paid over a considerable number of years, as these various commitment fall due.

    It does not give us anything in return, save for enough goodwill for a constructive trade negotiation. If we can settle the Ireland border question to the satisfaction of the EU, esp. Ireland, that is.

    So, reality bites at last.

    My guess - it can only be a guess - is we will end up with a Norway type trade agreement, with effective membership of the single market, though probably not in name and effective membership of the customs union too, though not in in name. If so, we can expect to have to pay continuing annual fees for the privilege, which go towards upkeep of the systems and standards that Brussels maintains on behalf of the members, so that the single market can function. The good news about that is that it would avoid duplicating all the associated bureaucracy - and cost - back here.

    I think the big question is whether we can gain such market access without the free movement of people.
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  38. #238  
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    Talking to a guy this week from Brazil, but with a Portuguese passport and working in the UK as a network engineer, he was worried about being sent away. I hoped I convinced him he wouldn't be as he had a job and the right skills. But it seems the exodus might have begun.
    UK immigration latest: Net migration falls by more than 106,000 after Brexit vote as EU citizens flee | The Independent
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  39. #239  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Talking to a guy this week from Brazil, but with a Portuguese passport and working in the UK as a network engineer, he was worried about being sent away. I hoped I convinced him he wouldn't be as he had a job and the right skills. But it seems the exodus might have begun.
    UK immigration latest: Net migration falls by more than 106,000 after Brexit vote as EU citizens flee | The Independent
    They all have jobs, practically. Benefit tourism seems to be largely a myth. But yes they are starting to go. This will add to inflation, since employers will in many cases have to pay more to get Brits to do the work, if they have the skills, which often they don't. The joke is that we will reduce immigration of people from cultures like ours European, Christian, industrialised societies) in favour of immigration of people from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, who are far less likely to fit in.

    I suppose a case can be made that the shortage of skilled labour may force the country to pay better wages for skilled labour and encourage more people to get trained. That would probably be a good thing overall. But the dislocation will be painful - it take time to train people, and even longer before they work out from changes in labour rates it is a good idea to show up for training.
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  40. #240  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    The joke is that we will reduce immigration of people from cultures like ours European, Christian, industrialised societies) in favour of immigration of people from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, who are far less likely to fit in.
    The Indian (or certainly Asian) surgeons have been good to me this year with 2 operations for skin cancer. An Asian doctor and an Egyptian one almost certainly saved my life a few years ago.
    So I say goodbye to the Eastern European mercenaries who came here for the dough but have now found a falling pound not good value to send money home. They are always going to go where the money is. We shouldn't flatter ourselves they were pro British.
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  41. #241  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    The joke is that we will reduce immigration of people from cultures like ours European, Christian, industrialised societies) in favour of immigration of people from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, who are far less likely to fit in.
    The Indian (or certainly Asian) surgeons have been good to me this year with 2 operations for skin cancer. An Asian doctor and an Egyptian one almost certainly saved my life a few years ago.
    So I say goodbye to the Eastern European mercenaries who came here for the dough but have now found a falling pound not good value to send money home. They are always going to go where the money is. We shouldn't flatter ourselves they were pro British.
    Indeed, I'm sure they were no more pro-British than I was pro-Arab when I worked in Dubai for 3 years, or pro-American when I worked in Houston for 2 years or pro-Dutch when I worked in The Hague for 3 years. We all go where the money is, when we are young and saving for a house or a family. But they may have found, as I did in all three places, reasons to like and respect aspects of the culture and the people. And they will have leant or improved their knowledge of the local language. But I expect also, as was true for me, they found reasons for not staying indefinitely. That's normal and is why EU immigration was never fundamentally a threat to the UK.
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    So, a 1st stage agreement, then. ~€40bn to settle existing commitments, as they fall due, an agreement on EU citizens in the UK, whereby our courts will take account of ECJ judgements for a period of 8 years, and a commitment for the whole of the UK to subscribe to a trade deal that is close enough to the EU single market and customs provisions for a hard border in Ireland not to be required by either party. And, if no tailor-made deal can be agreed, the fallback will be adhere to EU rules. Sounds a bit like a Norway agreement. From what I have read, it seems that a Canada type deal would not do the trick where the border is concerned, much though Davis seems to favour this type of deal.

    At all events, a hard Brexsh1t (e.g. reversion to WTO rules) seems now to be out of the question, as that would not meet the border criteria. Thank God that lunacy has been put to bed. It would have wrecked manufacturing industry in the UK.

    A good result, it seems to me, as far as it goes. If we were able to negotiate something like a Norway agreement but with some additional provisions restricting movement of people (The Norwegians don't worry too much about that, seeing as not many people speak their language or want to live in Norway), we might be able to satisfy the chief grudge people had against the EU and avoid wrecking our trade or giving ourselves shedloads of pointless extra bureaucracy, all in the name of "taking back control".

    But I am sure we will find we need to continue to make payments towards the upkeep of the Single Market system that the EU has so painstakingly constructed, if we want full access to it.

    It begins to look as if May is leveraging her weakness to let the Brexsh1tters gradually realise the facts of of life when dealing with an economic superpower and thereby manage their fantasy expectations downward by degrees, towards something sensible and achievable.

    One thing that I find notable in the events of the last few weeks is the power small nations acquire by being part of the European Union. Ireland has a population 1/15th that of the UK, but has been able to get what it wanted, much to the surprise and discomfort of people like Bozo, who have never taken "the Micks" seriously.

    I suspect Varadkar may have earned a place in British history as the man that helped save the Brits from themselves by forcing them to stay fully engaged with the EU, even while leaving it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    One thing that I find notable in the events of the last few weeks is the power small nations acquire by being part of the European Union.
    And even the regions. Which is why it is monumentally stupid for the people of Cornwall, say, to have been in favour of Brexit.

    But it does sound like the only way to solve " the Irish problem" is for us to effectively remain as part of the union, at least as far as free trade goes. Which will mean remaining compliant with all those rules imposed by "Europe" (except we will now have no say on what those rules are) and almost certainly some level of free movement.

    It'll be more of a Brexnot.
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  44. #244  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    One thing that I find notable in the events of the last few weeks is the power small nations acquire by being part of the European Union.
    And even the regions. Which is why it is monumentally stupid for the people of Cornwall, say, to have been in favour of Brexit.

    But it does sound like the only way to solve " the Irish problem" is for us to effectively remain as part of the union, at least as far as free trade goes. Which will mean remaining compliant with all those rules imposed by "Europe" (except we will now have no say on what those rules are) and almost certainly some level of free movement.

    It'll be more of a Brexnot.
    Yes, but maybe not a bad outcome. I'm coming to the conclusion that the previous idea, which people like Nick Clegg still champion, of an inner and outer circle of EU membership, does not seem to have any traction in the EU. So our previous rather anomalous status, outside the Euro in perpetuity, and our opting out of the 'ever-closer-union" drive, would come under pressure in the end. So perhaps we really do belong with Norway, as a country that is fully wedded to the trade aspects but not to the political goals.

    I continue to believe there is a niche for countries such as ourselves, Norway and Switzerland, who want more or less that type of relationship. It would be good if at some future point this could form a common grouping, to increase our clout in negotiating. But maybe not, seeing as the reason for all 3 countries staying out is our refusal to team up with anybody else!
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