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Thread: Scottish referendum - my unanswered questions.

  1. #1 Scottish referendum - my unanswered questions. 
    ox
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    In 2 weeks the fate of Scotland as a country will be decided. I have just driven back from there into England. I have no say in the referendum (I live in England) as to a Yes vote for an independent Scotland or a No vote for it to stay in the UK even though I will be affected by a Yes.
    In my own opinion poll of a handful of Scots I heard surprisingly little appetite for the referendum and independence.

    The Westminster government are saying that Yes will mean Scotland losing the pound.

    Will this threat be carried out? If so will I be subjected to border checks when entering and leaving Scotland? Will I have to change money from the pound to the new scottish currency (whatever it is) and back again to the advantage of the banks and other money changers?

    The SNP declare they will keep the pound.

    Will they then be free to set their own interest rates? If so then what affect will that have on the pound floating on international markets?
    And why should I have to share my currency with a foreign country?

    Will we all be weakened by the split?

    Will Scotland, what remains of the UK and even the wider world be poorer with independence? The UK has been incredibly strong and influential in the last 300 years. Will Scotland have a say in world politics (G7, G8, G20).
    With the removal of the nuclear base on the Clyde, then who defends Scotland in time of war?

    Will the Union be gone forever?

    A Yes vote will decide for now and for all future generations of Scots. There is no way of reversing the decision in a few years time, unless the leader of the SNP is to be believed when he said that Scotland could return to the UK one day. Is this man to be trusted?


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  3. #2  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In 2 weeks the fate of Scotland as a country will be decided. I have just driven back from there into England. I have no say in the referendum (I live in England) as to a Yes vote for an independent Scotland or a No vote for it to stay in the UK even though I will be affected by a Yes.
    In my own opinion poll of a handful of Scots I heard surprisingly little appetite for the referendum and independence.

    The Westminster government are saying that Yes will mean Scotland losing the pound.

    Will this threat be carried out? If so will I be subjected to border checks when entering and leaving Scotland? Will I have to change money from the pound to the new scottish currency (whatever it is) and back again to the advantage of the banks and other money changers?

    The SNP declare they will keep the pound.

    Will they then be free to set their own interest rates? If so then what affect will that have on the pound floating on international markets?
    And why should I have to share my currency with a foreign country?

    Will we all be weakened by the split?

    Will Scotland, what remains of the UK and even the wider world be poorer with independence? The UK has been incredibly strong and influential in the last 300 years. Will Scotland have a say in world politics (G7, G8, G20).
    With the removal of the nuclear base on the Clyde, then who defends Scotland in time of war?

    Will the Union be gone forever?

    A Yes vote will decide for now and for all future generations of Scots. There is no way of reversing the decision in a few years time, unless the leader of the SNP is to be believed when he said that Scotland could return to the UK one day. Is this man to be trusted?
    My views on your series of questions would be:

    Pound: The remaining UK (rUK) would be mad to agree to the Bank of England continuing to set interest rates to take into account the needs of an independent Scotland, or to be a lender of last resort for Scotland. It seems likely that Scotland under Salmond would spend beyond its means and adopt fiscal policies based on optimistic oil revenue predictions, leading to trouble later on - a sort of Greek scenario. With the painful Eurozone experience in mind, nobody sane in rUK will agree to this.

    However rUK cannot stop Scotland using sterling in the way that Panama uses the dollar and it would not matter to rUK if Scotland did this. The risk would be to Scotland, via loss of finance industry due to the absence of any lender of last resort to underpin the banks, and the risk of sterling interest rates set to fit rUK, rather than Scottish, needs. (The second point is arguably not much worse than today's situation, however, as the English economy dwarfs that of Scotland in the UK as a whole.

    If Scotlands wants to set their own interest rates, adapted to suit the fiscal policies of Scotland, they need their own currency and a central bank to back it. They ALSO need this as a precondition for joining the EU: it is one of the rules of membership.

    I think we will all be somewhat weakened by the split, as a new set of transaction costs and bureaucratic hurdles will inevitably be interposed between rUK and Scotland. And the cost of relocating the Clyde submarine base would be large. Whether we would need border controls I don't know. After all we don't for Ireland. Scotland won't rate a presence in any of the "G" s, since the size of their population and economy will be about that of Denmark. But I doubt that really matters to the Scots.

    One effect would be on UK politics: Labour would lose power forever without the block of Scottish MPs in Parliament.

    Is Salmond to be trusted? Certainly not. However the Independence issue is a lot bigger and more serious than Salmond.


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  4. #3  
    ox
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    I understand most of what what you say, but supposing interest rates rose to 5% or more. Does rUK then have a back seat driver?
    If the submarine base is to be moved, where is the most likely site? I can only think of Barrow, Milford Haven or Devonport.

    I get the impression that many Scots believe they are being dragged into this referendum. I think they would rather believe that the UK is still greater than the sum of its parts for any decision like this to be made at the present.

    What happens if there is only a 70% turnout and the SNP win with 51% of the vote? Is that true democracy? The decision cannot then ever be reversed. But a No vote still means that the SNP can try again.
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  5. #4  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In 2 weeks the fate of Scotland as a country will be decided.
    That would be future, not fate

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    I have just driven back from there into England. I have no say in the referendum
    Of course you do. Many Scots are open to bribery.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In my own opinion poll of a handful of Scots I heard surprisingly little appetite for the referendum and independence.
    I am encountering the reverse.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The Westminster government are saying that Yes will mean Scotland losing the pound.

    Will this threat be carried out? If so will I be subjected to border checks when entering and leaving Scotland? Will I have to change money from the pound to the new scottish currency (whatever it is) and back again to the advantage of the banks and other money changers?
    Why would a seaprate currency cause you to be subjected to border checks? As to the UK government threat - it will not be carried out. It is not in the interests of the UK government to do so.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will we all be weakened by the split?
    As a democrat I find it strange that anyone would feel that placing political decision making into both smaller and larger groups would be a bad thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will Scotland have a say in world politics (G7, G8, G20).
    As a member of the UN and the EU and a dozen other international bodies we shall have a say that focuses on our national needs.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    With the removal of the nuclear base on the Clyde, then who defends Scotland in time of war?
    sorry, but that is laughable. A frigging base for nuclear submarines is not a deterrent to war against Scotland, but an inviting target. If you wish to have a nuclear deterrent, please accept the associated risk.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will the Union be gone forever?
    No. In two hundred years we shall be able to reunite the entire British Isles. I've left instructions for my descendants.
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  6. #5  
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    I take that to mean you think that Scotland will be better apart than better together. Then Cornwall must have their proposed referendum, then Wales, then just about every region down to the smallest town and village. The small town of Hay-on-Wye (pop. 1900) on the England-Wales border is also having a referendum for independence on 18th September. And I want one for my local area. We are better apart because we are richer than most parts of Great Britain.
    But no, I love the UK and if Scotland votes Yes I will be heartbroken. I doubt if I will ever want to go there again as a foreigner. It will be interesting to see what the turnout is. Over 80% and I will concede that you are correct that there has been a lot of interest. Under 80% and I will still have my doubts.
    The proof of a Yes vote will lie in what happens later. Will there will be a net increase or decrease in people and businesses leaving Scotland? Is Scotland forever destined to be ruled by the SNP?

    Oh, and I definitely want a nuclear deterrent because it is that that keeps the peace in my opinion. 8000 jobs will be moved south of the border. Let's say just south to Barrow-in-Furness.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    I understand most of what what you say, but supposing interest rates rose to 5% or more. Does rUK then have a back seat driver?
    If the submarine base is to be moved, where is the most likely site? I can only think of Barrow, Milford Haven or Devonport.

    I get the impression that many Scots believe they are being dragged into this referendum. I think they would rather believe that the UK is still greater than the sum of its parts for any decision like this to be made at the present.

    What happens if there is only a 70% turnout and the SNP win with 51% of the vote? Is that true democracy? The decision cannot then ever be reversed. But a No vote still means that the SNP can try again.
    Don't follow your point about a "back seat driver" on interest rates. The base rate is set by the bank that backs the currency, in this case the BoE. So they would do this to fit the economy of rUK and the Scots, if they use sterling, would have to accept that with no say in setting the rate for their needs, which might be different. So there would be no back seat driver, surely?

    I have no idea where the subs would do, but no doubt somewhere would be found, at a cost.

    As to what the Scots think, I have only a brother in Scotland to rely information. He think a lot of the independence enthusiasts are in Glasgow, and where he is, near St Andrew's, there is not a huge degree of enthusiasm. But the polls suggest it will be close. (Not one of the Scots I know who lives in London is pro-independence, but perhaps that is not surprising - and they are disenfranchised anyway.)
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  8. #7  
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    If Yes it will be interesting to see what happens to sterling. Run on Scottish banks maybe to detriment of UK.
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    I actually thinks the Scots who vote yes are being very brave, many seem to think the idea of being an independant country is a worthy goal regardless of what the costs or effects will be to Scotland or the wider United Kingdom in general.

    I also think that Scotland may be allowed, after independence, to remain in the EU but they will have to jump through hoops to acheive it, the rest of the EU arn't just going to be doing special favours for Scotland. One condition will almost certainly be that Scotland has to join the Euro.

    It took the UK years to be allowed into the EU, over the French objections, after being vetoed on several times by the French. The EU see's it's mission of a closer unity and they arn't, don't and won't make it easy for anybody to obtain special or preferential treatment over other members or even prospective new members.

    Anyone who thinks Scottish independence will be a smooth or easy transition is living in cloud cuckoo land, it will be a hard long drawn out struggle where many many aspects will have to be debated and agreed by the rest of the UK and you can bet that the Scottish people will get the shortend of most it.

    The current UK government will determine the terms of any Scottish break from the rest of the UK and you can bet that English, Welsh, and Northern Irish tax payers will insist that it is the Scots who will bare the burden of the costs of the split.

    Also unless Scotland uses it own currency it will be forced to 'buy' other currency, whether this be the Pound or the Euro to pay it's pensioners, unemployed, disabled and public sector workers with. This is because unlike the UK government an independent Scotland couldn't simply print the Pounds it needed, the same would obviously also apply to the Euro again Scotland couldn't print the Euros to pay people with. This means a serious and real risk of Scotland actually running out of the money it will need to pay people, also since Scotland would have no track record as an independent country it would no doubt be faced with paying far higher interest on any borrowing which could also mean they end up in debt cycle and make drastic cuts to public spending like what we've seen happen in Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

    Perhaps the most worrying aspect of Scottish Independence though is what the Yes campaign themselves actually have to say, if we for a minute imagine that they are presenting the best possible scenario for independence then you have wonder what a realistic scenario might look like or indeed what a scenario looks like where things go very badly wrong. I have no doubt that Alex Salmond is a very clever man and in fairness has done a great job in pushing for independence the question though is will he be around forever to ensure things go right for Scotland and could he actually persuade a UK Prime Minister to give Scotland a UK split that doesn't leave them in finacial catastrophy or allow the oil rich Scottish Islands their own independence from the rest of Scotland.

    Yes voting Scots are indeed brave, but I just wonder about your average Scot and to them what is an acceptable price to pay for independence and at what point that price might indeed just become to high a price to face.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    I take that to mean you think that Scotland will be better apart than better together.
    You have given this almost no thought at all. If you had, you would understand that acquiring independence does not prevent continuing cooperation in social, political, economic, scientific, military and personal matters. In other words being apart is not the same as having nothing further to do with each other. That is just a silly attitude.

    I have no problem with being simultaneously a Man of Kent (rather than a Kentish Man), an Englishman, a Brandane, a Glaswegian, a Scot and a European. Apparently any similar personal rapprochement is beyond you.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Then Cornwall must have their proposed referendum, then Wales, then just about every region down to the smallest town and village. The small town of Hay-on-Wye (pop. 1900) on the England-Wales border is also having a referendum for independence on 18th September.
    I almost went there on Wednesday. I wonder how that will turn out. Are you a betting man? Has anyone opened a book on it?

    But fear that other regions may also seek independence is not something that should restrain the Scots. (By the way, you do know about publicity stunts, don't you?)

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    But no, I love the UK and if Scotland votes Yes I will be heartbroken. I doubt if I will ever want to go there again as a foreigner.
    That's your problem. Perhaps if you had made more of an effort to see that Scotland got a fair deal, perhaps if you had done more to redress the resentment that most Scot's feel about being viewed as second class citizens, we might not now be at that pass.

    Recall that earlier versions of the national anthem including the line "rebellious Scot's to crush" and made reference to ‘confound their politics, Frustrate their knavish tricks...', a good summary of the No campaign.

    Over 80% and I will concede that you are correct that there has been a lot of interest. Under 80% and I will still have my doubts.
    The turnout in the last general election was 65.1%. That will be exceeded. I do not have the figures to hand, but the BBC reported a substantial request for postal ballots.


    Will there will be a net increase or decrease in people and businesses leaving Scotland?
    An increase.


    Is Scotland forever destined to be ruled by the SNP?
    Of course not. Again, a truly silly, ill-informed remark.

    Oh, and I definitely want a nuclear deterrent because it is that that keeps the peace in my opinion. 8000 jobs will be moved south of the border. Let's say just south to Barrow-in-Furness.
    And it is exactly that arrogant attitude that has promoted the drive for independence. If you routinely talk down to your wife and ignore her opinion, don't be surprised if she walks out on you.
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    Anyone seen what the prediction markets are pricing Scottish Independence at?
    As is often the case with technical subjects we are presented with an unfortunate choice: an explanation that is accurate but incomprehensible, or comprehensible but wrong.
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    Quote Originally Posted by river_rat View Post
    Anyone seen what the prediction markets are pricing Scottish Independence at?
    Yeah but that's here today, gone tomorrow. This issue is way beyond the short term concerns of financial markets. If Scotland wants its independence badly enough, a certain amount of economic pain will be a small price to pay. What irritates me is that I think Salmond is not being straight with people about what those costs will be and the length of time over which they may be experienced. So they may opt for it without being prepared for what is to follow.

    Personally, as an Englishman born in Edinburgh and with relatives living inScotland over many years, I can see pros and cons to both outcomes. Not being a man of the Left, I find the attempts by the SNP to intertwine independence with party politics distasteful. But the advent of the EU, a sort of modern version of the Holy Roman Empire, does call into question the raison d'etre of the nation states that we have had for the last handful of centuries. If we are part of the EU, we need an appropriate cascade of devolution of powers, at a various levels, but it is not self-evident that the UK level as currently constituted is the optimum for these islands.

    There is an argument to be made that, now that coal (and therefore steel) is dead and the empire has long gone, the Celtic periphery is bound to reman overshadowed by the South East of the country, unless radical measures are taken. Perhaps only by separating can the Celtic periphery focus all its efforts on finding a worthwhile future, without being seen as a distraction, or a bit of the UK to be supported, by the South East.
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    If the people of Scotland truly want independence from the UK, then I am fine with that, the people have spoken. What I cannot get my head around, is that the SNP want to join the so called European Union, and lose their newly won independence at the stroke of a pen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    If the people of Scotland truly want independence from the UK, then I am fine with that, the people have spoken. What I cannot get my head around, is that the SNP want to join the so called European Union, and lose their newly won independence at the stroke of a pen.
    That's what I mean about layers of devolution. If you have the EU at the top level, then Westminster, then Holyrood, that gives less autonomy than EU then Holyrood.

    I hope they vote No, as from my perspective (a) it will mean nothing but hassle for the rest of my lifetime and (b) Salmond is such a irritating, dissembling, bullying git. But I have to concede these are not arguments that a proper historical perspective would find compelling.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    If the people of Scotland truly want independence from the UK, then I am fine with that, the people have spoken. What I cannot get my head around, is that the SNP want to join the so called European Union, and lose their newly won independence at the stroke of a pen.
    That's what I mean about layers of devolution. If you have the EU at the top level, then Westminster, then Holyrood, that gives less autonomy than EU then Holyrood.

    I hope they vote No, as from my perspective (a) it will mean nothing but hassle for the rest of my lifetime and (b) Salmond is such a irritating, dissembling, bullying git. But I have to concede these are not arguments that a proper historical perspective would find compelling.
    Sadly nothing truely worthwhile usually really does come about without an awful lot of hassle and often pain and heartache to boot. If Scottish independence is truely worthwhile then people should be told the truth, they should know that it will be a long hard struggle and that many might suffer financially along the way, that prices could rise whilst benefits, pensions and wage may actually fall and cuts in public spending and services could happen, but that despite all of this Independence is still worth it.

    Scotts shouldn't be sold a pup, they should be told the truth and given the realities of the situation and then decide what they really want and what's really important to them.

    Also what is the mechanism for restoring the union if things go wrong and Scots change their minds about independence, there just doesn't seem to be any. Come what may if over 50% of Scots who are elligible and decide to vote choose to vote yes then over 200 years of unity and cooperation comes to an end, forever broken with no way to fix it. If Scots vote no how many really believe that the SNP will simply give up on the idea or that the question will never again arise?

    But as to devolution and the EU, many people other than UKIP and their supporters recognise and understand the benefits of EU membership and allowing power to reside at EU level. The idea of Scottish Inpendence from the UK is a very different beast than that of EU membership.
    But how about parts of Scotland or indeed islands that wish to remain part of the UK, what about these aspects, surely the debate about whether people or places that want to remain part of the UK should be decided by the whole UK not just Scotland. Should 50% of Scots who wish to leave the union be arbitarily be allowed to force other Scots to be stripped of all their rights as UK citizens?

    Also how much does Alex Salmond as First Minister actually influence people's voting one way or another, is he a real factor or is this a far bigger issue than any one person.
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    ...you would understand that acquiring independence does not prevent continuing cooperation in social, political, economic, scientific, military and personal matters. In other words being apart is not the same as having nothing further to do with each other. That is just a silly attitude.
    Let's see about that. Loss of the Union flag, a banner for freedom and democracy around the world will be lost forever except in a corner of some flags in faraway nations.

    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    Perhaps if you had made more of an effort to see that Scotland got a fair deal, perhaps if you had done more to redress the resentment that most Scot's feel about being viewed as second class citizens, we might not now be at that pass.
    Do you mean the bit about the sensations Scots have when they come south of the border for the first time?

    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    Recall that earlier versions of the national anthem including the line "rebellious Scot's to crush" and made reference to ‘confound their politics, Frustrate their knavish tricks...', a good summary of the No campaign.
    And plundering our land and raping our women. Happened both sides of the border you know.


    According to Salmond Scotland IS destined to be ruled either by the SNP or Labour.

    And we'll take those 8000 jobs if you don't want them.

    Drove past this a few days ago.
    http://www.cumbriacrack.com/2014/09/...breaks-target/

    I'm for it.
    Last edited by ox; September 6th, 2014 at 05:11 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ascended View Post
    But as to devolution and the EU, many people other than UKIP and their supporters recognise and understand the benefits of EU membership and allowing power to reside at EU level. .
    I am certain that the Kinnock familly would agrea with you. The EU gravy train has turned that familly into millionaires.

    Lord & Lady Kinnock's £10m Euro gravy train | UK | News | Daily Express
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In 2 weeks the fate of Scotland as a country will be decided.
    That would be future, not fate

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    I have just driven back from there into England. I have no say in the referendum
    Of course you do. Many Scots are open to bribery.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    In my own opinion poll of a handful of Scots I heard surprisingly little appetite for the referendum and independence.
    I am encountering the reverse.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The Westminster government are saying that Yes will mean Scotland losing the pound.

    Will this threat be carried out? If so will I be subjected to border checks when entering and leaving Scotland? Will I have to change money from the pound to the new scottish currency (whatever it is) and back again to the advantage of the banks and other money changers?
    Why would a seaprate currency cause you to be subjected to border checks? As to the UK government threat - it will not be carried out. It is not in the interests of the UK government to do so.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will we all be weakened by the split?
    As a democrat I find it strange that anyone would feel that placing political decision making into both smaller and larger groups would be a bad thing.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will Scotland have a say in world politics (G7, G8, G20).
    As a member of the UN and the EU and a dozen other international bodies we shall have a say that focuses on our national needs.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    With the removal of the nuclear base on the Clyde, then who defends Scotland in time of war?
    sorry, but that is laughable. A frigging base for nuclear submarines is not a deterrent to war against Scotland, but an inviting target. If you wish to have a nuclear deterrent, please accept the associated risk.

    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Will the Union be gone forever?
    No. In two hundred years we shall be able to reunite the entire British Isles. I've left instructions for my descendants.
    You won't be able to join the EU (at least not for a long time and it'll probably have destroyed itself by then) and will have less influence in the UN (Britain can veto at the moment but I doubt Scotland will get this privilege as well) as for Trident you would do well to remember a quote from Horace: 'If you want peace prepare for war' the world is a dangerous place although we've been fed the whole peace myth, politics countries as normal, just ask Ukraine what they think of Russia. An independent Scotland would be made weakened by the split as it would have less to offer and could be bullied easily by Westminster it's simple politics that England will work in the interest of England not Scotland. You'd be cut off from London making your economy much weaker.
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    There already those in Scotland with their own plans for leaving an Independent Scotland and those who will rejoin the rest of Great Britain, ones things for sure things are set to get awfully messy, this isn't going to be a smooth ride.
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    One of my questions about border checks is now being debated. It is nothing to do with currency. It is about immigration policies. You might even need to show your passport at 2 different checkpoints either side of the road and rail border. From England's point of view Scotland will be a foreign country if the split is formalised.
    In which case I will not feel obliged to go there again. I will miss the boggy golf courses, but not the boggy afforested walking approaches to the mountains. I will miss the Great Glen but not Lanarkshire. I will miss Inverness but not Glasgow. I will miss the open spaces but not the incessant rain.
    I still hope for a No vote, even now that polls suggest otherwise, because I think that for the last 300-400 years (depending upon when you measure the Union) the UK has been incredibly stable and successful, never losing a war, building an empire and promoting freedom and democracy all over the world. The history will be there but all else will be gone.
    In the case of a Yes vote I will still remember all the Scottish service personnel who have laid down their lives for the Union flag.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    One of my questions about border checks is now being debated. It is nothing to do with currency. It is about immigration policies. You might even need to show your passport at 2 different checkpoints either side of the road and rail border. From England's point of view Scotland will be a foreign country if the split is formalised.
    In which case I will not feel obliged to go there again. I will miss the boggy golf courses, but not the boggy afforested walking approaches to the mountains. I will miss the Great Glen but not Lanarkshire. I will miss Inverness but not Glasgow. I will miss the open spaces but not the incessant rain.
    I still hope for a No vote, even now that polls suggest otherwise, because I think that for the last 300-400 years (depending upon when you measure the Union) the UK has been incredibly stable and successful, never losing a war, building an empire and promoting freedom and democracy all over the world. The history will be there but all else will be gone.
    In the case of a Yes vote I will still remember all the Scottish service personnel who have laid down their lives for the Union flag.
    On the border question, we have had an open border with Ireland for decades and nobody feels the need to change that, even with all the current panic about terrorism. What arguments do people make as to why this could not be done in Scotland's case?
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  23. #22  
    ox
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    I don't know for sure about that, because it's 12 years since I last went to Ireland. I travelled by ferry from Holyhead to Dun Laoghaire with my bike for a cycling tour and yes I cycled straight off into the town from the ferry without any checks. On the way back it was the same. Things have changed I believe.

    Britain boosts Irish border checks in bid to improve security - Telegraph

    If not passport checks there must be surveillance of some sort. The sea separates Ireland from GB but there is the most open land border in the world between England and Scotland.
    Last edited by ox; September 8th, 2014 at 06:25 AM.
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    With regard to borders the issue will be fairly simple. The idea of border checks or guards is pretty much scare mongering whilst ever both Scotland and England & Wales remain in the EU. This is pretty much a given, the issue would change drastically though if the UK pulls out of the EU after the referendum promised by by the Conservatives in 2017 or if Scotland votes for independence and is then unable to persuade the rest of the EU members to allow it to remain within the EU as a seperate member than the union of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. In either of these events Scotland could very likely be veiwed as a foreign state where border controls are required and pressure for this might even actually come from the EU as this would then in either circumstance former an actual EU border!
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