Thread: Political predictions?

I sometimes wonder about what the political future will lookk like. My mostly ridiculous predictons are:
Us becomes burnt out from trying to police the world, but still remains a major political power. Increased radical conservatism heralds in an Isolationist age for the us. China continues to grow as much as it's system of government allows, but still remains a small consumer market. European Union breaks apart, after economic woes, in which more prosperous countries tire of shouldering the burden of the imperiled ones. This next prediction could sound ridiculous next month/year/decade, but popular uprisings sweep the globe, anywhere there is authoritarian rule, and even when there is not. Finally, with america mostly prospering internally, an age of peace is entered, with a few exeptions. America chooses noy to be part of this.
It should be fun if this forum is still around in 20-50 years to see how the prediction compare to the real world.
Anyone else want to share??

I find the below to be incredibly unlikely/unrepresentative, but that's just my opinion:

Originally Posted by 15uliane

[China] remains a small consumer market.

That's not even true for today. Huge market in Asia. They have over a billion consumers in one country.

Originally Posted by 15uliane

america mostly prospering internally, an age of peace is entered

I stopped believing things like this when I stopped smoking pot.


My predictions? Climate change will drastically alter growing patterns of major food crops, and will also result in increased incidence of insect transmitted illness. Mass migration of people fleeing the more difficult regions will cause instability in countries where they arrive, and fights over resources will be common, as well as jingoistic attitudes and xenophobia (similar to what you said about conservatives). Wars will be fought over water instead of oil. Despite continued advances in medicine and technology, many people will die of illness, and our over use of antibiotics will make more illnesses practically unstoppable. However, as education improves the global "consciousness" will become more and more aligned, and the old divisions of mythology and religion will continue to be cast aside.

As for looking back in 20 to 50 years, I'd be curious to look back in 2 to 5. 8)

Did anyone predict the major events of the past 50 years? The Berlin Wall coming down; September 11, 2001; the revolutions in Egypt and Libya; and so on?

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

Yogi Berra (allegedly) said that.

“In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General MacArthur so delicately put it,”

Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense (and a Republican) said that. We can hope, but not predict.

2060.
China has merged with Taiwan the hard way; the US reluctantly accepts its invasion when China uses a combination of financial blackmail and viable threat to it's Navy. Some compare it to the Suez crisis.

Tel Aviv is being rebuilt after a nuke terrorist act. Syria has become a UN occupation zone and humanitarian efforts after being wrecked by Israels retaliatory strikes.

The Saudi family has been tossed out of power and civil wars continue to erupt throughout the region as secular governments struggle to meet the needs of huge populations without benefit of mostly depleted oil supplies. Islam continues the struggle to find a moderate identity and is the only large remaining faith with strong and deep follower ship.

US still has the largest economy followed by China and Indonesia.

New Orleans and Miami are Island Cities dozens of miles offshore from the mainland.

Western Kansas prairie is now replaced by shifting dunes.

Korea is now merged.

Mars has an EU and US orbital space station that operates a fleet of unmanned and manned rovers on the surface. Several businesses have leased space on the moon and operate rare mineral mining facilities.

Interesting-
inow- I am merely being optimistic, and although it has many sales, china i not a consumer society-it is too tightly controled-it is stil an industrial society.Your prdictions likely will happen assming climate change progresses (we don't stop it-Im not that much of a republican). Same goes for Lynx_Foxes.
Bunbury- I agree, I don't think I am a seer, bt it's fun to see how stupid you're predictions sound in a while. It's even funner :-D if you by chance get it right.
Lynx_Fox- Form what we are seeing now, the saudi royal family (and other nations) to get thrown out. However, I think the US still has enough confidence in it's militar to prevent chinese expansion. If terrorists or Iran get the bomb, Israel would be a prime target, although I doubt the weapons would be launched from Syria.

(random smiley)

Originally Posted by 15uliane

although it has many sales, china i not a consumer society-it is too tightly controled-it is stil an industrial society.

It's possible I am biased. Roughly 70% of our business is in China, and I currently work for an incredibly advanced global corporation who has direct ties to consumer electronics... things like flat panel displays, solar energy, LEDs, and other touch pad devices... In other words, well well beyond industrial purchasing (although, I am currently exploring an opportunity within a much larger organization).

The best way to predict the future is to look at the past. The things that have always happened in the past will probably continue to happen in the future. Long term trends must also be taken into account. So, my predictions.

1. Science and technology will continue to grow. The first true artificial intelligences will be built in about 35 years (plus or minus a few). They will permit the design and construction of a mass of new and wonderful tools, such as incredibly sophisticated robots. Goods and services provided by robot labour will be immensely cheap. This will have enormous impact on all aspects of human economies and will permit most of the world's population to retire as soon as they finish their education, and live comfortable lives.

2. Empires will rise and fall as they always have. My guess (high probability of being wrong!) is that the USA will diminish and China will become a greater superpower than the US.

3. Space exploration will continue at a painfully slow pace. Humans will reach Mars within 50 years, but true off world colonies will not begin this century. It will be about 200 years before larger numbers of humans live away from Earth.

4. Our energy economy will slowly evolve towards renewables, plus nuclear. Recycling will become ever more important, but this will be aided and made very efficient by all them robots.

5. Global warming will continue but will not be as disastrous as many foretell. Indeed, there will be benefits as well as detrement from the climate change. Some coastal cities will need to build massive dykes to keep out the oceans.

6. Human genetic engineering will slowly become commonplace. This will eventually (maybe 100 years) result in almost everyone being healthy, good looking, intelligent, athletic and long lived.

inow- China has a big market, and although they have ads etc. the majority of their economy sells elsewhere, and the majority of other nations economies sell elsewhere.
70% of our buisness might be in China, but most of that is one-sided (we give them money, they give us stuff. Your company and others do have markets in china, but the general trend is what I said above. I am not an economist, so I might be terribly wrong, but that is what I have read and seen.
skeptic-interesting. I think that there will be a boom in space, but I just really want that to happen. I do have a reason though: commercial development=space race×10.
Also, I think gen-eng will be outlawed. To many "ethical" issues.

Originally Posted by 15uliane

inow- China has a big market, and although they have ads etc. the majority of their economy sells elsewhere

This from last week:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth...710593188.html

In early March, China's National People’s Congress will approve its 12th Five-Year Plan. This plan is likely to go down in history as one of China's boldest strategic initiatives.

In essence, it will change the character of China’s economic model – moving from the export- and investment-led structure of the past 30 years toward a pattern of growth that is driven increasingly by Chinese consumers. This shift will have profound implications for China, the rest of Asia, and the broader global economy.

<...>

The 12th Five-Year Plan will do precisely that, focusing on three major pro-consumption initiatives. First, China will begin to wean itself from the manufacturing model that has underpinned export- and investment-led growth. While the manufacturing approach served China well for 30 years, its dependence on capital-intensive, labor-saving productivity enhancement makes it incapable of absorbing the country's massive labor surplus.

<...>

But the emphasis on the Chinese consumer is likely to be the new Plan’s defining feature – sufficient, in my opinion, to boost private consumption as a share of Chinese GDP from its current rock-bottom reading of around 36 per cent to somewhere in the 42-45 per cent range by 2015. While still low by international standards, such an increase would nonetheless represent a critical step for China on the road to rebalancing.

It would also be a huge boost for China’s major trading partners – not just those in East Asia, but also growth-constrained European and US economies. Indeed, the 12th Five-Year Plan is likely to spark the greatest consumption story in modern history.

And from about a month ago:

http://www.bradleymgardner.com/2011/...ady-happening/

In the simpler wording of Moody’s [Analytics & Investor Services]:

But to its credit, China is making the transition to more domestically oriented growth and rebalancing its economy away from a reliance on the external sector. Imports growth dominated exports growth during 2010—imports grew 38.7% year-on-year last year versus exports growth of 31.3%. Meanwhile, December’s record imports total eclipsed November’s then-record by a considerable margin, underscoring the extent to which growing consumer demand is supplanting energy and commodities demand as the driver of Chinese imports growth.

China’s overall trade surplus is usually highly vulnerable to commodity prices, but what these numbers point out is that in recent months China’s trade surplus has dropped despite commodity prices not doing what they should. The only explanation is consumption.

It's no big deal, really, but if you're going to make predictions about the future then you should at least confirm your understanding of the present is accurate.

Then again, you did say "majority," so I guess you're technically correct. Carry on.

Originally Posted by 15uliane

70% of our buisness might be in China, but most of that is one-sided (we give them money, they give us stuff.

I wasn't talking about the US economy. I was talking about the company which pays my salary.

Oh. Sorry. Now that I think about it, why did I accept that 70% of the US economy (what I thought you said) is in china. I mean, come on, me!
Anyway, I wasn't aware that the 5 year plan was going to do that- I read and article in the NY times magazine four or five months ago on how china needs to get a consumer society to keep advancing it's economy- I guess Jintao read the same thing.
I guess this spells good news for your company!

Originally Posted by 15uliane

Sorry. Now that I think about it, why did I accept that 70% of the US economy (what I thought you said) is in china. I mean, come on, me!

Yeah... Even if you add up the top 10 countries who receive US exports, that only accounts for ~62% of all US export activity.

But hey... I've made worse mistakes. No worries. Even in this very thread I was a little off base above. If you're curious, we export more to Canada and Mexico, but China is third on the list, and rising.


http://wholesalers.about.com/od/impo...-To-Import.htm

At $82 billion, China is a distant third in U.S. imports compared to Canada and Mexico, but it is quickly rising. China’s number one import is computer accessories, parts, and peripherals. Part of this is related to the computer assembly industry, but also includes sales to Chinese retailers and end-users.

Originally Posted by 15uliane

I guess this spells good news for your company!

Haha. Let's hope so!! Even if I move on this other opportunity, I'll still own some stock.

These are my predictions:


(1) Because of ever-increasing human global population, the middle class in Developed countries will continue to get smaller while the middle class in developing nations will continue to expand. The number of billionaires and millionaires in the world (by US dollar) will increase exponentially between 2012 and 2050.

(2) Western developed nations will see a desperate push to preserve their Social-welfare economies, but global competition with poorer countries will force these economies to make serious concessions to capitalistic principles.

(3) Because of its sheer size and consumer market, the United States will remain a key economic and military power on the world stage, but by the end of the century nations like China and India will trump the US economically and militarily, and nations like Indonesia and Pakistan will have serious world clout. Britain, France, and Germany will be thought of as once-great has-beens.

(4) Despite the gains made by Bollywood and other non-western entertainment centers, the West will continue to have a major grip on the movie and entertainment industry.

(5) The Space Race and it's developing technology will continue to be domestic-orientated, focusing on military satellite/weapon technology and rapid transportation around the globe. Manned-missions to Mars and other planets inside the Solar System will be few though great international events.

(6) Einstein's General Theory of Relativity will be replaced with a verified and more accurate model of Gravity--and it will be based upon an elaborate Aether model of Space!

(7) One of the great social and intellectual controversies of the next 100 years will be about how Natural Selection plays a role in modern human societies and social arrangements. Some nations will enact policies to deal with its apparent effects.

( 8 ) Designing human babies will become a viable international industry (though it will be outlawed in many). With time, it will become more politically and socially accepted.

(9) American-like consumer culture will be the developing international culture of the coming age, revolving around the aim for prosperity, prestige, and material wealth!

(10) Religion will continue to lose its sway on world communities.

(11) The internet and rapid transport will weaken (thought definetely not eliminate) perceptions of nationalism.

(12) As poorer nations continue to develop and increase in global significance, "great wars" will increasingly be fought in sports arenas as opposed to the battlefield.


(Sorry about this. I know these aren't all political predictions.)

I like those predictions, though for variety I'll try some different ones:

- Mid 21st century will be the start of the great energy crisis. By 2020 most governments will acknowledge that not only is oil in terminal decline but alternatives are very uneconomical, this is compounded by binding international restrictions on CO2 emissions. Mineral shortages also reduce growth.

- Peak-oil will hit the most oil dependent nations hardest such as US. China is partially affected, but India is able to build its growth on the new sustainable schemes that are developing. As a result, India eventually overtakes China in GDP.

- The fishing industry takes a plunge as over fishing together with changing sea temperatures destabilises the ocean food chain. Fish becomes a luxury food for the wealthy.

- The space sector focuses on satellite deployment, all further ambitions are brought to a standstill, manned space missions finish with a spacewalk by China in 2030.

- An entire country will have to evacuate due to rising sea levels

Oh wait, that last one is already happening