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Thread: Experiment - Destiny Charts

  1. #1 Experiment - Destiny Charts 
    Forum Freshman Angelo_Maligno's Avatar
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    I was thinking about a philosophical exercise where you plot the destiny of of something by it's nature. It's based on my own made up principle and probability. The first principle we must examine is that the nature of something determines it's destiny. The second principle is that somethings destiny must eventually happen by the law of averages. It won't tell you when something will happen but what will eventually happen at some undetermined point in time. I'm just not sure how to arrange such a chart. It would not be simple chart by any means as the more natures you took into account of the subject and the environment the more accurate it would be.

    Thoughts?

    Decided to conduct an experiment to see what results we would get. General principles and instructions are below.


    Last edited by Angelo_Maligno; October 2nd, 2018 at 03:14 PM.
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  3. #2 A Philisophical Exercise - Destiny Charts 
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    I've worked how once may represent the destiny of something through a chart. First you need a subject that can take an action within the world (including plants). Then you determine it's nature and put the results on the ends of a hex grid or a simple grid. You then cross those natures and determine what the destiny of the subject is based on two or more natures. For example : The subject being humans you could put at on end of the grid that human nature is to war. You could also put part of human nature is to develop better tools. You then find the box or hex where those two boxes or hexes intersect and put that humans will develop better tools of war. You could even conclude they will be inclined to do so indefinitely and eventually develop a single weapon that can destroy a world.

    I'm really just trying to hash this out. It seems too simple at this point and not as accurate as it could be considering there are a number of natures to account for. Like human fear for example, the question is would human fear stop them from developing the weapon. Both are human nature, perhaps I need a system of rating how strongly something is humanities nature. Maybe assign a number value. It's very interesting either way.

    Thoughts?

    Mod note: I've moved this post from its original place (separate thread in philosophy) - duplicate topics are discouraged.


    Last edited by Dywyddyr; October 2nd, 2018 at 06:07 AM.
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  4. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    I was thinking about a philosophical exercise where you plot the destiny of of something by it's nature. It's based on my own made up principle and probability. The first principle we must examine is that the nature of something determines it's destiny. The second principle is that somethings destiny must eventually happen by the law of averages. It won't tell you when something will happen but what will eventually happen at some undetermined point in time. I'm just not sure how to arrange such a chart. It would not be simple chart by any means as the more natures you took into account of the subject and the environment the more accurate it would be.

    Thoughts?
    I think you first need to clarify what you mean by destiny. If you simply mean the eventual outcome - of something, that is uncontentious. If however you means by destiny a pre-ordained outcome, you will encounter suspicion. You will also need to clarify what you mean by "nature" in this context. At the moment I have no picture of what you are trying to convey by this term.
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    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    How would you incorporate, for example, a period of sudden drought into the "destiny chart" of an elephant?
    How would you decide which (if any) particular elephant of a herd survives a period of drought?
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  6. #5  
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    I think you first need to clarify what you mean by destiny. If you simply mean the eventual outcome - of something, that is uncontentious. If however you means by destiny a pre-ordained outcome, you will encounter suspicion. You will also need to clarify what you mean by "nature" in this context. At the moment I have no picture of what you are trying to convey by this term.
    To clarify "destiny" in this case is not a predetermined course of events though it could be thought of as a presently determined course of events if all things are left unchanged (though that is not entirely accurate as some things must change in order to fulfill the destiny). It's not meant to predict all outcomes either as the future is inherently unpredictable. For instance we could all die tomorrow if a large enough object strikes the earth. This would render any and all predictions about humanity useless. It's point is to show a likely event that will occur in the future without determining a time or place it will occur. It's just a philosophical exercise.

    Nature is defined as the unchangeable facts about any given thing. The nature of something is probably the hardest part to determine. Universal laws are obvious and strong natures of the universe. If we're going by a ranking system of 1 to 10 they would rank a 10. The human nature that includes our occasional need to war with each other would rank lower because each country is not in a perpetual state of war.

    I think you've help me sort out my ranking system anyway. Thanks.

    Now if only I could decide on a shape to make my grid. A Dodecagon perhaps? I'm not sure those would fit on a grid.
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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    How would you incorporate, for example, a period of sudden drought into the "destiny chart" of an elephant?
    How would you decide which (if any) particular elephant of a herd survives a period of drought?
    You would have to make a grid for each individual elephant and determine their personal nature relative to other elephants and therefore their likelihood of their survival.
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    So a hexagon grid would work for the most part. It would allow you to put subject natures on the left side and environmental natures on the top side. You could then cross them to come up with cross destinies according to various natures. I would use a larger polygon but it's pretty much pointless. The only flaw to this is that you would have to come up with an equal number of subject and environmental natures to make the grid complete.

    Should I be the first one to make one? I suppose that would be fitting. It wouldn't be entirely accurate but it would serve as an example.

    I think I may have an idea to make it better I could arrange octagons but put lines between them and other octagons to make a more complete chart. This would allow for more cross natures.
    Last edited by Angelo_Maligno; October 2nd, 2018 at 08:24 AM. Reason: new idea
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    hHere's an example. sn = subject nature. en = environmental nature. cn = cross nature.





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    Bullshit Intolerant PhDemon's Avatar
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    I have to say, to me it sounds like a colossal waste of time...
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  11. #10  
    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    You would have to make a grid for each individual elephant and determine their personal nature relative to other elephants and therefore their likelihood of their survival.
    Which wouldn't
    A) account for the likelihood of that drought (i.e. your chart would have encompass so many other factors that it would become untenable/ impossible) nor
    B) in reality be able to determine which specific elephant would survive.
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  12. #11  
    Forum Freshman Angelo_Maligno's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Which wouldn't
    A) account for the likelihood of that drought (i.e. your chart would have encompass so many other factors that it would become untenable/ impossible) nor
    B) in reality be able to determine which specific elephant would survive.
    Oh, you stated as if the drought was a certain thing. This isn't really designed for determining when something will occurs as I stated. Only that it will eventually occur.

    Furthermore you can likely predict the suitability of an elephant to survive during a drought based on several factors. I'm not expert though, I can't tell you which factors lead to higher survivability. The personal nature of each elephant matters. Some are large some are small. Some retain water better some do not.

    It's not meant for that anyway and I wouldn't be comfortable using it in that way.
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  13. #12  
    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Oh, you stated as if the drought was a certain thing.
    No. I didn't. I gave it as an example of an unpredictable event.

    This isn't really designed for determining when something will occurs as I stated.
    Then it's a futile exercise. Reality always includes unpredictable events.

    Furthermore you can likely predict the suitability of an elephant to survive during a drought based on several factors.
    You can - possibly1 - do so, but would it have any validity?

    I'm not expert though, I can't tell you which factors lead to higher survivability.
    In other words your idea is untenable: you (and, I suspect, the current state of human knowledge) aren't capable of determining (let alone assigning values to) all of those factors.

    The personal nature of each elephant matters. Some are large some are small. Some retain water better some do not.
    Plus all of the other (unknown) factors.

    1 Although beyond achieving a figure for "likely to survive" (as opposed to "will survive") I sincerely doubt it.
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  14. #13  
    Forum Freshman Angelo_Maligno's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Oh, you stated as if the drought was a certain thing.
    No. I didn't. I gave it as an example of an unpredictable event.

    This isn't really designed for determining when something will occurs as I stated.
    Then it's a futile exercise. Reality always includes unpredictable events.

    Furthermore you can likely predict the suitability of an elephant to survive during a drought based on several factors.
    You can - possibly1 - do so, but would it have any validity?

    I'm not expert though, I can't tell you which factors lead to higher survivability.
    In other words your idea is untenable: you (and, I suspect, the current state of human knowledge) aren't capable of determining (let alone assigning values to) all of those factors.

    The personal nature of each elephant matters. Some are large some are small. Some retain water better some do not.
    Plus all of the other (unknown) factors.

    1 Although beyond achieving a figure for "likely to survive" (as opposed to "will survive") I sincerely doubt it.

    Let me re-explain what this chart does. On the left you have nature of subject or subjects (often species have common traits that make up it's nature). On the top you have the environmental nature (nature being unchangeable facts about a thing). Then where those octagon connect between them you have the result of the collision of these two unchangeable facts. By the law of averages an event must eventually occur (not when it will occur). This of course does not take into account the unexpected death of the subjects or the unexpected destruction of the environment. In essence you could say the collision of these two natures is destiny without a determined time. Have I made it clearer?
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  15. #14  
    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Have I made it clearer?
    It has been clear to me from the first post what your intention is.
    And yet you seem to be ignoring all of the points raised against it.

    The largest one being In other words your idea is untenable: you (and, I suspect, the current state of human knowledge) aren't capable of determining (let alone assigning values to) all of those factors.
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  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    It has been clear to me from the first post what your intention is.
    And yet you seem to be ignoring all of the points raised against it.

    The largest one being In other words your idea is untenable: you (and, I suspect, the current state of human knowledge) aren't capable of determining (let alone assigning values to) all of those factors.
    Well we don't even have to assign number values if you're talking about enough subjects that produce subjects with the same nature. Reproducing Subjects + Nature + Effectively Infinite Time = nearly unavoidable outcomes.
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  17. #16  
    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Well we don't even have to assign number values
    You do if you to want be able make any use of the chart (and if you want it fall under the rubric of science).

    if you're talking about enough subjects that produce subjects with the same nature.
    So... going back to my example of elephants. Bearing in mind that they're a declining species what size of population would you consider "enough"?

    Reproducing Subjects + Nature + Effectively Infinite Time = nearly unavoidable outcomes.
    Also bearing in mind that species change (or die out) then your claim of "effectively infinite time" is false.
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  18. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    You do if you to want be able make any use of the chart (and if you want it fall under the rubric of science).
    This isn't at all accurate enough for the hard sciences. This is why I put my other post in philosophy.

    So... going back to my example of elephants. Bearing in mind that they're a declining species what size of population would you consider "enough"?
    Enough for the survival of the species.

    Also bearing in mind that species change (or die out) then your claim of "effectively infinite time" is false.
    That's why I didn't simply say "infinite time" once a species dies out, changes it's nature or has it's nature changed through evolution the chart becomes inaccurate. Most projections are inaccurate though even within modern science itself. Have you looked at the accuracy of the average projection graph?
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  19. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    This isn't at all accurate enough for the hard sciences. This is why I put my other post in philosophy.
    So you want a "philosophical" chart? How would it be used? Other than to say: well if my data is correct (which I know it isn't), and if these conditions hold true (which I know they won't) then it's possible (but I can't say to what degree of certainty) that THIS might happen?
    What use would such a chart be?

    Enough for the survival of the species.
    Not an answer: elephants are dying out, ergo your chart wouldn't be applicable to them. Humans will die out (so the "usefulness" of your chart is time-limited - ruling out "effectively infinite").

    That's why I didn't simply say "infinite time" once a species dies out, changes it's nature or has it's nature changed through evolution the chart becomes inaccurate.
    Therefore the wording "effectively infinite" is meaningless. It's either effectively infinite (as close as makes makes no difference) or it's finite.

    Most projections are inaccurate though even within modern science itself. Have you looked at the accuracy of the average projection graph?
    Except that projection charts (done properly) have confidence levels - i.e. a "description" of how accurate they are and how reliable those projections are.
    Your chart would have neither.

    PS: I sincerely think that your reliance (or whatever word you want to use) on the "nature" of things is unfounded.
    It's in the "nature" of some creatures to be sick and weakly, it's in the "nature" of others to be robust and healthy: even within a given species. How will you obtain that data?
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  20. #19  
    Forum Freshman Angelo_Maligno's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    So you want a "philosophical" chart? How would it be used? Other than to say: well if my data is correct (which I know it isn't), and if these conditions hold true (which I know they won't) then it's possible (but I can't say to what degree of certainty) that THIS might happen?
    What use would such a chart be?
    It's not about use it's about exercise as I stated in my post that you took from the philosophy board.

    Not an answer: elephants are dying out, ergo your chart wouldn't be applicable to them. Humans will die out (so the "usefulness" of your chart is time-limited - ruling out "effectively infinite").
    Ok I admit. It's imperfect. What do you think about economic projections. Oh look an asteroid is about to wipe us out. Ha checkmate economists, you're all wrong.

    Therefore the wording "effectively infinite" is meaningless. It's either effectively infinite (as close as makes makes no difference) or it's finite.
    Allright. I'll try to use more accurate terms.

    Except that projection charts (done properly) have confidence levels - i.e. a "description" of how accurate they are and how reliable those projections are.
    Your chart would have neither.
    no disagreement I guess. Like I said it's not a hard science chart that tickles your autistic obsession with accuracy.

    PS: I sincerely think that your reliance (or whatever word you want to use) on the "nature" of things is unfounded.
    It's in the "nature" of some creatures to be sick and weakly, it's in the "nature" of others to be robust and healthy: even within a given species. How will you obtain that data?
    You could go with the most common natures. The majority are not sick or weakly. In fact what sort of decides sick or weakly is an abnormality of low health or strength.
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  21. #20  
    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Like I said it's not a hard science chart that tickles your autistic obsession with accuracy.
    Apart from the unwarranted ad hom1 if you aren't going to be accurate the what use will such a chart be?

    You could go with the most common natures. The majority are not sick or weakly. In fact what sort of decides sick or weakly is an abnormality of low health or strength.
    Which still leaves us with the question I asked: How will you obtain that data

    Ok I admit. It's imperfect. What do you think about economic projections. Oh look an asteroid is about to wipe us out. Ha checkmate economists, you're all wrong.
    Economics is (at best) a nascent science (i.e we know it's unreliable and that is has factors we can't account for). But you also appear to have missed my other sentence: Except that projection charts (done properly) have confidence levels - i.e. a "description" of how accurate they are and how reliable those projections are. (And your example is pretty specious if what you're saying is that economic predictions will all turn out to be wrong if an asteroid hits us: it's implicit in the chart itself - and the studies undertaken to arrive at those charts - that certain factors are excluded2).

    1 And I would remind you that this is a science website.
    2 In fact your "example" is like complaining that bus/ train timetables are inaccurate because the Earth won't exist in 5 billion years' time, therefore the buses/ trains won't follow that timetable.
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  22. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Apart from the unwarranted ad hom1 if you aren't going to be accurate the what use will such a chart be?
    It's to be used as an exercise.

    Which still leaves us with the question I asked: How will you obtain that data
    It's not all that hard to borrow a couple things from fields of science despite it not being more philosophical. Psychology specifically is probably most important.


    Economics is (at best) a nascent science (i.e we know it's unreliable and that is has factors we can't account for). But you also appear to have missed my other sentence: Except that projection charts (done properly) have confidence levels - i.e. a "description" of how accurate they are and how reliable those projections are. (And your example is pretty specious if what you're saying is that economic predictions will all turn out to be wrong if an asteroid hits us: it's implicit in the chart itself - and the studies undertaken to arrive at those charts - that certain factors are excluded2).

    In fact your "example" is like complaining that bus/ train timetables are inaccurate because the Earth won't exist in 5 billion years' time, therefore the buses/ trains won't follow that timetable.
    Well exactly I was imitating your example of a projection being inaccurate because the subjects died and you pointed out the flaw in your own argument. Now I know you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.
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    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    It's to be used as an exercise.
    In what?

    It's not all that hard to borrow a couple things from fields of science despite it not being more philosophical.
    "Borrowing a couple of things from fields of science" is not the same as obtaining data on the relative healthiness (or otherwise) of elephant populations.

    Psychology specifically is probably most important.
    And, given that psychology is full of "ifs buts and maybes"...

    Well exactly I was imitating your example of a projection being inaccurate because the subjects died and you pointed out the flaw in your own argument. Now I know you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.
    And now you've illustrated perfectly that you didn't understand either the wording of what I posted nor its point. (Especially since you think that you've pointed out a flaw in the argument).
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    Delete this thread so I can move the idea to philosophy. I want to see what kinds of results people get when they use them.
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    Genius Duck Moderator Dywyddyr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Delete this thread so I can move the idea to philosophy.
    It's not philosophy.
    Therefore the thread will remain in this sub-forum.
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  26. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dywyddyr View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Angelo_Maligno View Post
    Delete this thread so I can move the idea to philosophy.
    It's not philosophy.
    Therefore the thread will remain in this sub-forum.
    Very well this is now the thread for an experimental run of a philosophical exercise.
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    ULTRA IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS


    Ok so to line things up you are going to use this grid. You may need to enlarge it for what we're going to use it.



    Next make sure you have some kind of information reference open like an academic database or search engine for relevant information. Next you must decide a subject, subjects are limited to being that tend to move including various animals and humans. It will also be useful to pick a certain environment in which your subject will reside. Discover as much information abut the subject as you can, learn it's habits and other instinctive actions, this is a subject's nature. Whether you focus on one subject or the species of a subject is important as it determines whether you need to include personal nature on top of species nature. Put subject nature on the left hand side. Environment nature is no easier to determine, enhance your knowledge of everything in the surrounding environment that can be interacted with. You may even feel the need to include weather effects. Learning the unchangeable facts of the environment and subject is the key. Where the octagons intersect is where you write how these two to several natures interact with each other given that a certain action will be taken. Subjects will eventually interact with an environment according to their nature. You may even feel the need to put a monkey in a European forest to get a better idea of what it would do eventually.

    It should look something like this. EN = environmental nature, SN = subject nature and CN = is where these two natures meet, sometimes cross environment natures that will eventually arise.

    "You will know destiny by the nature of things." - Either My Psychosis Or The Archangel Of Destiny
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