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Thread: Missing airliner Malaysian Airlines flight MH370

  1. #1 Missing airliner Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 
    Forum Professor jrmonroe's Avatar
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    International police agency Interpol confirmed that two of the flight's passengers used passports recorded in its database as lost or stolen, raising suspicions of foul play.
    This makes little sense to me. Airport/airline officials enter this passport data in computers, but didn't check with Interpol as to its status (at any time prior to takeoff)?

    The fact that searchers cannot find any debris appears to indicate that the aircraft probably disintegrated at around 35,000 feet.
    This also makes little sense to me. Disintegration means separating something into its parts. For example, lightweight parts (eg, seat cushions, luggage, etc) would separate from heavier aircraft parts (engines, etc). The heavier parts would sink, and the lighter parts would float. If the entire plane somehow landed relatively intact (a la Miracle on the Hudson), then the whole airplane would sink intact, taking its relatively lighter parts with it.

    If the plane had plunged intact from close to its cruising altitude, breaking up only on impact with the water, search teams would have expected to find a fairly concentrated pattern of debris
    A false dilemma — (1) the airliner either disintegrated at cruising height, or (2) it disintegrated upon violent impact with the water. Just because searchers haven't yet found a relatively tiny debris field doesn't prove that the airliner disintegrated at cruising altitude. Another conclusion can be drawn — (3) it contacted the water with a relatively low vertical speed, remained relatively intact, and then sank.


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    Quote Originally Posted by jrmonroe View Post
    This also makes little sense to me. Disintegration means separating something into its parts. For example, lightweight parts (eg, seat cushions, luggage, etc) would separate from heavier aircraft parts (engines, etc). The heavier parts would sink, and the lighter parts would float.
    If the aircraft disintegrated at high altitude then the lighter parts would get blown "off course" and end up some considerable distance from the last reported position.
    Searches start at that position and widen.
    By the time the search reaches the place where the lighter, "floatable", bits actually landed wind and currents could have carried them much further adrift.


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    Until the wreckage is found there is nothing to know.

    And there are a lot of people who travel with false ID besides suicide bombers.

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    Worth bearing in mind: in fatal 2010 Air India crash - runway overshoot - reportedly 10 had fraudulent passports RiskandForecast.com | Risk Watch | At least 10 passengers of crashed Air India plane had fake passports
    1:27 AM - 9 Mar 2014
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    I've been watching all day and haven't seen any claim of responsibility or report of a debris field.

    Without any prejudice, I note that a slick without a debris field tends to imply ditching and sinking.

    OTOH I have heard an unconfirmed report that the Viet Namese report an explosion and breakup at high altitude. It's difficult under those conditions for me to imagine the plane making a slick.

    So everything I hear is equivocated. As you say dan hunter.
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    Forum Radioactive Isotope cosmictraveler's Avatar
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    How far will the orange box transmit its location, anyone know?
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    Unfortunately, when news agencies don't know what happened, they start to speculate and treat those speculations as probable facts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmictraveler View Post
    How far will the orange box transmit its location, anyone know?
    Not far from underwater.
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    The debris field it no real surprise--though it seems it will eventually be found because there's relatively shallow water along that coast extending far offshore.

    I wouldn't be surprised if airports don't check boarding passports/Visa's very well...it's not really their job but that of the receiving officials at the point of debarkation.
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    Yes, you're right about the shallow water.

    So far the signature is that of an accident.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmictraveler View Post
    How far will the orange box transmit its location, anyone know?
    The ULB they use can transmit to a max of about 3km.
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    ..nothing can be found yet..but in the news reported that the soldiers' radar detect MH370 had turn back
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by cosmictraveler View Post
    How far will the orange box transmit its location, anyone know?
    The ULB they use can transmit to a max of about 3km.
    Thanks.
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    Could it have been hijacked and flown to North Korea? Could it get there undetected?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Could it have been hijacked and flown to North Korea? Could it get there undetected?
    Not likely. Skin returns from an aircraft that big are hard to hide.
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    Another idea was imagine if something happened and all 270 people turned their cellphones on to record it, and that stuffed up the plane's navigation system.
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    Hmmm. The US (and probably Russia) has satellites that search the Earth's surface in the infrared to detect strategic missile launches. I wonder if they look for a particular spectrum signature or if they detect the entire infrared spectrum. If the airliner caught fire either in the air or when it crashed, I would guess that the amount of fuel might be about the same order of magnitude needed for a strategic missile launch. I wonder if the US or Russia detected the fire, and if they did, would they tell anyone?
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  18. #17  
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    Another idea was imagine if something happened and all 270 people turned their cellphones on to record it, and that stuffed up the plane's navigation system.
    That doesn't tell you why there's no debris or other sign of the aircraft breaking up.

    The most reasonable explanation/speculation I've heard so far is that, for some as yet inexplicable reason, the aircraft went into the water (wherever that might have been) at less than collision speed so it went in - and down - more or less complete. (I suppose the image that came to my mind was something like that plane landing on the Hudson, except this was on the open ocean so the plane had to sink.)
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    Another idea was imagine if something happened and all 270 people turned their cellphones on to record it, and that stuffed up the plane's navigation system.
    That doesn't tell you why there's no debris or other sign of the aircraft breaking up.

    The most reasonable explanation/speculation I've heard so far is that, for some as yet inexplicable reason, the aircraft went into the water (wherever that might have been) at less than collision speed so it went in - and down - more or less complete. (I suppose the image that came to my mind was something like that plane landing on the Hudson, except this was on the open ocean so the plane had to sink.)
    Though in that unlikely event (seawater generally too choppy to permit an intact landing) I would expect some people would have got out, or at least we might see evacuation slides floating about. I suppose it is possible that when we find the site that is what we will see.

    However I would tend to assume, from the lack of any mayday call, that whatever happened took place suddenly and fairly catastrophically, in normal flight.
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    Forum Radioactive Isotope cosmictraveler's Avatar
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    At least no terrorist groups are saying they did anything.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Though in that unlikely event (seawater generally too choppy to permit an intact landing) I would expect some people would have got out, or at least we might see evacuation slides floating about. I suppose it is possible that when we find the site that is what we will see.

    However I would tend to assume, from the lack of any mayday call, that whatever happened took place suddenly and fairly catastrophically, in normal flight.
    From what the media has released it appears the plane disappeared from radar rather suddenly-- a long descent to attempt a low speed water ditching would have taken many minutes and probably have been noticed on radar.
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    I read that if you try to phone some of the passenger's cell phones, they ring, but nobody picks up....
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    Quote Originally Posted by KALSTER View Post
    I read that if you try to phone some of the passenger's cell phones, they ring, but nobody picks up....
    I read that the passenger's phones sometimes call but when they connect there is not enough signal and then they disconnect. Which is worse?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Could it have been hijacked and flown to North Korea? Could it get there undetected?
    Latest report sounded like the Malaysian military tracked it right across its country. They said the plane had turned its transponder off.
    Next country over from there is Indonesia. Have they said anything? I'm getting the feeling it could have been shot down. There seems to be a bit of a cover-up going on for they must have known this 4 days ago.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/wo...aysia-jet.html
    On Tuesday, the fourth day after the plane disappeared while on an overnight flight to Beijing, the country’s air force chief, Gen. Rodzali Daud, was quoted in a Malaysian newspaper as saying the military received “signals” on Saturday that after the aircraft stopped communicating with ground controllers, it turned from heading northeast to heading west, lowered its altitude and flew hundreds of miles across Peninsular Malaysia and out over the Strait of Malacca before the tracking went blank. The air force chief did not say what kind of signals the military had tracked. But his remarks raised questions about whether the military had noticed the plane as it flew across the country, and about when it informed civilian authorities.According to the general’s account, the aircraft was near Pulau Perak, an island more than 100 miles off the western shore of the Malaysian peninsula, when the last sign of it was recorded at 2:40 a.m. Saturday.
    That assertion stunned aviation experts as well as people in China, who had been told again and again that the authorities lost contact with the plane more than an hour earlier, when it was on course over the Gulf of Thailand, east of the peninsula. But the new account seemed to fit with the decision on Monday, previously unexplained, to expand the search area to include waters west of the peninsula.
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    i heard some people try to use shaman to locate the airline...i wonder what is the power use by the shaman, what kind of science behind it or just a stupid action to give hope to the victims family
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  26. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    what kind of science behind it
    None at all.

    or just a stupid action to give hope to the victims family
    Either stupid or a con.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    i heard some people try to use shaman to locate the airline...i wonder what is the power use by the shaman, what kind of science behind it or just a stupid action to give hope to the victims family
    Where did you hear this or are you just making it up?
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    i'm malaysian myself.. the news of using shaman had become parody
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  29. #28 the pictures 
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    i'm malaysian myself.. the news of using shaman had become parody
    Are they also joking about shooting it down? If it flew back over Malaya with the transponder off, why has it taken the military 4 days to start the search in the right area?
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    as an islamic country, this is shameful enough

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    for that, its not a joke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    i'm malaysian myself.. the news of using shaman had become parody
    Are they also joking about shooting it down? If it flew back over Malaya with the transponder off, why has it taken the military 4 days to start the search in the right area?
    for that, its not a joke
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    the military had tracked that the plane might try to turn back. possibilities that it might been hijacked, shooting down is just rumors. because the Vietnam did not allowed us to search within their territory
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    the military had tracked that the plane might try to turn back. possibilities that it might been hijacked, shooting down is just rumors. because the Vietnam did not allowed us to search within their territory
    I'll look into that. If it was going to fly over Vietnam you'd think they would allow searches there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    t
    What is happening in this picture?
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    as an islamic country, this is shameful enough

    What is happening in this picture?
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    the shaman trying to track the plane using bamboo device...he said the plane had entered different dimension, not in the air, not on the land....
    about vietnam,i think they just do not want any country to spy on their military secret or technology as the country was just independent from communism
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  39. #38  
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    the military had tracked that the plane might try to turn back. possibilities that it might been hijacked, shooting down is just rumors. because the Vietnam did not allowed us to search within their territory
    I haven't heard anything about Vietnam not allowing for a search over it's territory for this plane. Quite the contrary, I heard Vietnam mobilised search and rescue boats and planes to try to help find it.

    The Air Force chief is now denying what the media attributed to him about the plane tracking to the West on its radar.

    Malaysia's air force chief has denied remarks attributed to him that a missing Malaysia Airlines plane was tracked by military radar to the Strait of Malacca, far from its planned route.
    Rodzali Daud said such reports in local media were untrue, but it was possible the plane had turned back.
    Flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing went missing on Saturday, after taking off with 239 people on board.
    It's turning into a bit of a fiasco.

    Sadly, the pressure is now on for Malaysia to find something about where this plane actually went to. Vietnam have advised they are scaling back on their efforts as they wait for information from Malaysia.

    One of the worst things about this is that there appears to be too much being said and interpreted and just blurted out to the media without any actual foundation. And in a situation like this, it really isn't helpful.
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    [QUOTE=Tranquille;537748]
    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    the military had tracked that the plane might try to turn back. possibilities that it might been hijacked, shooting down is just rumors. because the Vietnam did not allowed us to search within their territory
    I haven't heard anything about Vietnam not allowing for a search over it's territory for this plane. Quite the contrary, I heard Vietnam mobilised search and rescue boats and planes to try to help find it.

    yes, they help and search, but they just not allowed malaysian rescuer to search the plane in their territory
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    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    the shaman trying to track the plane using bamboo device...he said the plane had entered different dimension, not in the air, not on the land....
    about vietnam,i think they just do not want any country to spy on their military secret or technology as the country was just independent from communism
    What does that leave? Not land, not air ... leaves water doesn't it. Seems to be the most common view really.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by shazzy View Post
    the shaman trying to track the plane using bamboo device...he said the plane had entered different dimension, not in the air, not on the land....
    about vietnam,i think they just do not want any country to spy on their military secret or technology as the country was just independent from communism
    What does that leave? Not land, not air ... leaves water doesn't it. Seems to be the most common view really.
    yup. common view and i dont want to believe on anything that he said..it was nonsense
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    Maybe another 9-11 scenario. I wonder if there was another Malaysia Airlines flight that took off about the same time. This flight could get in front of it and assume its identity in order to get to a vital Indian spot: Mumbai, New Delhi, etc. Can a transponder be altered in-flight to another ID? Or get close behind the other flight and use it as camouflage. So, after reaching the Malacca Strait, it would really want to fly northwest to reach its target. But it never reached any destination. Maybe a United flight 93 scenario.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Another idea was imagine if something happened and all 270 people turned their cellphones on to record it, and that stuffed up the plane's navigation system.
    Certainly wouldn't cause a loss of control. Going purely by the odds, this was once again pilot error.
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    Watching the news has been fun.
    At day 5 the media has reduced itelf to reporting random rumours and wild speculations because they have nothing else to report except that the search is continuing.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Another idea was imagine if something happened and all 270 people turned their cellphones on to record it, and that stuffed up the plane's navigation system.
    Certainly wouldn't cause a loss of control. Going purely by the odds, this was once again pilot error.
    Too early to place the blame on the pilot.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Certainly wouldn't cause a loss of control. Going purely by the odds, this was once again pilot error.
    Too early to place the blame on the pilot.
    Again, that's going purely by the odds. Pilot error is by far the #1 cause of aircraft crashes.
    Last edited by billvon; March 12th, 2014 at 04:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Certainly wouldn't cause a loss of control. Going purely by the odds, this was once again pilot error.


    Again, that's going purely by the odds. Pilot error is by far the #1 cause of aircraft crashes.
    Billvon error there in getting the quotations right![/QUOTE]

    Nothing about this case suggests pilot error to me. So far to me it looks like the Malay Military stuffed up. I read they are now finally sharing their radar records with the USA.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post

    Again, that's going purely by the odds. Pilot error is by far the #1 cause of aircraft crashes.
    Pilot error is the leading cause of aviation accidents and incidents, however it is not always the case.

    In this particular case, no one really knows. While China has finally released satellite images which appear to show what looks to be debris in the ocean, an oil rig worker had apparently witnessed a fireball in the sky and had been attempting to contact the relevant authorities with what he saw. It appears it was disregarded when a flyby by Vietnam saw nothing of note. Apparently they sent a plane there to have a quick look, after they had said they would be withdrawing from the search and rescue efforts. It is curious that Mr McKay's emails and the exact directions he gave were not investigated a bit more thoroughly. In his email to his employers about what he saw, he advises of his attempts to contact the relevant authorities but heard nothing back. And where he was directing them to is where the Chinese Satellite images showed what appeared to be debris in the water.

    New Zealander Mike McKay, who is working on a rig operating in the Gulf of Thailand, was so certain he saw the ill-fated flight on fire that he emailed his employers, urging them to pass the information onto authorities.

    "Gentlemen. I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines flight come down. The timing is right," he wrote.

    "I tried to contact Malaysian and Vietnamese officials days ago. But I do not know if the message has been received.

    "I am on the oil ring Songa-Mercur off the coast of Vung Tau.

    "The surface location of the observation is Lat 08 22' 30.20" N Lat 108 42.22.26" E.

    "I observed (the plane?) burning at high altitude at a compass bearing of 265* to 275*"

    Mr McKay is working on the oil rig Songa Mercur off Vung Tau, on the south east coast of Vietnam. This would put the plane in the same general area where a Chinese satellite has spotted a suspected crash site.

    In his email to his employers on March 12 he claims he saw flames in the sky which quickly extinguished.

    "From when I first saw the burning (plane) until the flames went out (still at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds. There was no lateral movement, so it was either coming toward our location, stationary, or going away from our location," he wrote.

    "The general position of the observation was perpendicular/south west of the normal flight paths."

    Mr McKay said the possible plane appeared to be in one piece.

    "It is very difficult to judge the distance but I would say 50 to 70 kms along the compass bearing 260-277," he wrote.

    "The sea surface current at our location is 2-2.3 knots in the direction of 225-230.

    "The wind direction has been E-ENE averaging 15-20 knots.

    "(We see the con trails every day) and at a lower altitude than the normal flight paths or on the compass bearing 265 to 275 intersecting the normal flight paths at normal altitude but further away."

    Michael Jerome McKay signed off with "Good Luck".


    If this was indeed the case, then perhaps it is not pilot error this time.

    Vietnam has acknowledged they received Mr McKay's email with the explicit and exact measurements and directions, however as one Australian aviation expert explained:

    However, Strategic Aviation Solutions chairman Neil Hansford said superior Australian search aircraft should be sent to the area.

    "If you go out in an aircraft with a GoPro out the window you're not going to find much are you?," he said, referring to the Vietnamese search efforts.

    "Australia's sent Orions up there and we fly an Orion at about 500 feet off the water and it's got thermal imaging and everything.


    * * * *


    On the rig, Mr McKay would have been sitting up to 100m above the water, Mr Hansford said.

    "You'd see that. If you're up on an oil rig you're awfully high up off the water. So he's sitting up in an elevated position and looking at a clear sky he sees something low and on fire, that's disappearing," he said.

    "Being a mariner he knows what the latitude and longitude of what his oil rig is. He's then looked up at the image and he's determined how many degrees the aircraft was at from him and he's said it's 50-70km from him.

    "An experienced person on the water would be able to use the instruments he's got because they need to have all of that instrumentation for the helicopters coming to take them on and off the rigs."

    What a shame his email and the information he conveyed to the authorities was not made known sooner and was not investigated properly.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tranquille View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post

    Again, that's going purely by the odds. Pilot error is by far the #1 cause of aircraft crashes.
    Pilot error is the leading cause of aviation accidents and incidents, however it is not always the case.

    In this particular case, no one really knows. While China has finally released satellite images which appear to show what looks to be debris in the ocean, an oil rig worker had apparently witnessed a fireball in the sky and had been attempting to contact the relevant authorities with what he saw. It appears it was disregarded when a flyby by Vietnam saw nothing of note. Apparently they sent a plane there to have a quick look, after they had said they would be withdrawing from the search and rescue efforts. It is curious that Mr McKay's emails and the exact directions he gave were not investigated a bit more thoroughly. In his email to his employers about what he saw, he advises of his attempts to contact the relevant authorities but heard nothing back. And where he was directing them to is where the Chinese Satellite images showed what appeared to be debris in the water.

    New Zealander Mike McKay, who is working on a rig operating in the Gulf of Thailand, was so certain he saw the ill-fated flight on fire that he emailed his employers, urging them to pass the information onto authorities.

    "Gentlemen. I believe I saw the Malaysian Airlines flight come down. The timing is right," he wrote.

    "I tried to contact Malaysian and Vietnamese officials days ago. But I do not know if the message has been received.

    "I am on the oil ring Songa-Mercur off the coast of Vung Tau.

    "The surface location of the observation is Lat 08 22' 30.20" N Lat 108 42.22.26" E.

    "I observed (the plane?) burning at high altitude at a compass bearing of 265* to 275*"

    Mr McKay is working on the oil rig Songa Mercur off Vung Tau, on the south east coast of Vietnam. This would put the plane in the same general area where a Chinese satellite has spotted a suspected crash site.

    In his email to his employers on March 12 he claims he saw flames in the sky which quickly extinguished.

    "From when I first saw the burning (plane) until the flames went out (still at high altitude) was 10-15 seconds. There was no lateral movement, so it was either coming toward our location, stationary, or going away from our location," he wrote.

    "The general position of the observation was perpendicular/south west of the normal flight paths."

    Mr McKay said the possible plane appeared to be in one piece.

    "It is very difficult to judge the distance but I would say 50 to 70 kms along the compass bearing 260-277," he wrote.

    "The sea surface current at our location is 2-2.3 knots in the direction of 225-230.

    "The wind direction has been E-ENE averaging 15-20 knots.

    "(We see the con trails every day) and at a lower altitude than the normal flight paths or on the compass bearing 265 to 275 intersecting the normal flight paths at normal altitude but further away."

    Michael Jerome McKay signed off with "Good Luck".


    If this was indeed the case, then perhaps it is not pilot error this time.

    Vietnam has acknowledged they received Mr McKay's email with the explicit and exact measurements and directions, however as one Australian aviation expert explained:

    However, Strategic Aviation Solutions chairman Neil Hansford said superior Australian search aircraft should be sent to the area.

    "If you go out in an aircraft with a GoPro out the window you're not going to find much are you?," he said, referring to the Vietnamese search efforts.

    "Australia's sent Orions up there and we fly an Orion at about 500 feet off the water and it's got thermal imaging and everything.


    * * * *


    On the rig, Mr McKay would have been sitting up to 100m above the water, Mr Hansford said.

    "You'd see that. If you're up on an oil rig you're awfully high up off the water. So he's sitting up in an elevated position and looking at a clear sky he sees something low and on fire, that's disappearing," he said.

    "Being a mariner he knows what the latitude and longitude of what his oil rig is. He's then looked up at the image and he's determined how many degrees the aircraft was at from him and he's said it's 50-70km from him.

    "An experienced person on the water would be able to use the instruments he's got because they need to have all of that instrumentation for the helicopters coming to take them on and off the rigs."

    What a shame his email and the information he conveyed to the authorities was not made known sooner and was not investigated properly.
    I read about this earlier but without all the detail. A plane "50 -70 km away", that is the bit I struggle with. I am skeptical about seeing any plane at that distance and at 1:00 AM in morning or thereabouts how could he tell it was a plane? (light moving slowly horizontally or was it on a slope downward.)

    I'm not discounting what he saw but just the distance mainly.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    I read about this earlier but without all the detail. A plane "50 -70 km away", that is the bit I struggle with. I am skeptical about seeing any plane at that distance . . . .
    Aerial distances at night are almost impossible to estimate correctly. It could have been 20km (easy to see) it could have been 70km (hard to see but not impossible.)
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    Given that the maximum dimension of a 777-20OER is just under 64 metres that means the aircraft would subtend about 0.05 degrees.
    A human eye can resolve 0.07 degrees.
    Which means that something may have been seen at that range, but I doubt if it could have identified as an aircraft.

    The following may be relevant, but note that a DC-3 is only about 1/3 the size of a 777:
    Howell [5] carried out a field study in which pilots attempted to detect another aircraft (DC-3) approaching on a collision course. Over various conditions, the average distance at which detection by the pilot occurred (“detection distance”) was from 5.5 to 8.7 km. Of greater relevance to this study, the subject aircraft also carried an experimenter who knew exactly the approach angle of the target aircraft, and “kept constant vigil with his naked eye” until he detected the intruder aircraft. This “threshold distance”, over the same conditions, averaged from 17.3 to 23 km, about three times larger than the detection distance.

    (I'm not sure that 3 times the size equates to 3 times the range at which something is visible, and I'm extremely dubious that than anything at the limits of angular resolution of the human eye can be said to be "there". Could have been anything, including a floater).
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    I read about this earlier but without all the detail. A plane "50 -70 km away", that is the bit I struggle with. I am skeptical about seeing any plane at that distance . . . .
    Aerial distances at night are almost impossible to estimate correctly. It could have been 20km (easy to see) it could have been 70km (hard to see but not impossible.)
    If it was on fire for a while then you could see that from distance, but how do you estimate distance from what you are seeing? I suppose it is how fast it appears to be moving across the night sky. Twice as far away twice as slow.

    700 km/hr at 70 km away how much does it move in 15 seconds?
    1458.333333 meters in 7.5 seconds 0.020833


    What degrees gives a result of 0.04? That amount of degrees in 15 seconds, so can your eye notice even a plane moving at that distance? It might be around 2 degrees.
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    Apparently they're on the way to the site now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    If it was on fire for a while then you could see that from distance, but how do you estimate distance from what you are seeing?
    That's the problem.

    or subtends 0.04 of a degree in 15 seconds, so can your eye notice even a plane moving at that distance? 4/100ths of a degree total movement???
    And that's if all its motion is perpendicular to the angle you see it at. If it is approaching or receding the apparent motion is even less.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    If it was on fire for a while then you could see that from distance, but how do you estimate distance from what you are seeing?
    That's the problem.

    or subtends 0.04 of a degree in 15 seconds, so can your eye notice even a plane moving at that distance? 4/100ths of a degree total movement???
    And that's if all its motion is perpendicular to the angle you see it at. If it is approaching or receding the apparent motion is even less.
    I realized my maths was wrong for it was giving the answer in Radians.
    See my correction. It is around 2.5 degrees which could be picked up.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schneibster View Post
    Apparently they're on the way to the site now.
    The Straits of Malacca are miles away form Vietnam so there seems still be two places involved.
    But it is possible it had the problem off the coast of Vietnam but then flew by autopilot at lower altitude across to the Straits of Malacca.

    Confusion reigns in the reports:
    Satellite images from China's State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence showed three floating objects in the Strait of Malacca, where it's speculated the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 travelled after it left its approved flight path.
    Yet in another report
    Chinese authorities published late Wednesday the satellite images, taken on March 9, which purportedly show three large floating objects spread across a 20-square kilometer span of water at 105.63 east longitude and 6.7 north latitude, an area east of Peninsular Malaysia off the southern tip of Vietnam.
    I'm confused for those areas are on different sides of the peninsular Malaysia.
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    35,000 feet at 70 kilometer cannot be described "high altitude". Can we estimate what angle above the horizon would a plane be at 70 km?

    10,668 meters so that is a significant angle.
    ATAN(0.1524)*180/PI() = 8.6652 degrees

    Was it seen that low?
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    source

    U.S. investigators and national security officials suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours after reaching its last confirmed location, based on engine data sent to the ground from the Boeing aircraft.
    Grief is the price we pay for love. (CM Parkes) Our postillion has been struck by lightning. (Unknown) War is always the choice of the chosen who will not have to fight. (Bono) The years tell much what the days never knew. (RW Emerson) Reality is not always probable, or likely. (JL Borges)
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    At this point a conspiracy theorist would note that the Chinese are unusually upset over the incident. "Methinks the lady doth protest too much."
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrmonroe View Post


    source

    U.S. investigators and national security officials suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours after reaching its last confirmed location, based on engine data sent to the ground from the Boeing aircraft.
    ON CNN the Malaysian Minister of Transport denied that there were these engine data intercepts. Were there or weren't there?
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    Let's please not have any assertions or suggestions of pilot error before the facts are known.

    Sadly, many air crashes have been caused by poor design, poor instrumentation, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, optical illusions, poor training, hijack, fatigue, weather conditions, etc.

    Generally when at work flying, I can see another aircraft up to 20 miles away. Beyond that, I can usually see where it is by following its contrails if there are any, or its strobe lights at night. I would say that my visual limit for seeing another aircraft's strobes on a clear night is about 60-80 miles.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    ON CNN the Malaysian Minister of Transport denied that there were these engine data intercepts. Were there or weren't there?
    There were but they did not show the engines running for 4 hours after the last return.
    Last edited by billvon; March 13th, 2014 at 03:58 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Let's please not have any assertions or suggestions of pilot error before the facts are known.

    Sadly, many air crashes have been caused by poor design, poor instrumentation, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, optical illusions, poor training, hijack, fatigue, weather conditions, etc.
    Agreed, it could be anything. But statistically pilot error is far more likely than design fault, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, weather etc.

    Consider the Air France flight. Everyone suspected a catastrophic failure due to weather. But in the end it was just a very stupid mistake by a pilot who should have known better.

    Or take 2012. Of all the fatal commercial aviation accidents, more than half were caused by pilot error, ranging from controlled flight into terrain to both pilots being drunk.
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    That it seems the Malaysian air defence system failed.. We know the A T C lost the transponder image but why has the radar image vanished.. ( Because the plane did.)~ It was after 1. am local time and no military threat exists. So that no one was watching does not conflict with fact.. The fact that no 'flotsam' has been found suggests it's not where they are looking. Was the transponder turned off or blown to dust.. and that it's very interesting that we do not yet know... All the tech at our fingertips yet still a huge hole in our knowledge. Even the most skeptical of us is getting to doubt what we are being told.. Look in the Indian Ocean..
    If the flight stayed airborne it's range is more than those maps show.. Range to destination plus alternat..
    The case for a GPS tracker locator beacon thats always on.. is made.
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    Quote Originally Posted by astromark View Post
    .. and that it's very interesting that we do not yet know...
    Indeed. That is the part I find most surprising. I would have expected this plane to be on radar and the identification transponder to be on at all times.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    ON CNN the Malaysian Minister of Transport denied that there were these engine data intercepts. Were there or weren't there?
    There were but they did not show the engines running for 4 hours after the last return.
    What are you basing that statement on?
    The report was that the last engine data was at 1:09 AM Malaysian Time.
    MH370: US officials say plane sent signals 'hours' after losing contact
    Here's a different version:
    Here’s how Reuters explains the “pings”:
    Communications satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday, but the signals gave no indication about where the stray jet was heading nor its technical condition, a source close to the investigation said on Thursday.
    The “pings” equated to an indication that the aircraft’s maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service, the source said.
    The Wall Street Journal continues to build out its report, first published this morning, that the plane flew for hours after “disappearing.” See the subsequent post on this blog about an important correction the WSJ has appended to its initial report: the theory that the plane flew for hours was based not on a signal from a system inside the Rolls-Royce engines but on a signal from a separate satellite communication systems in the plane, the Journal says.
    Now that sounds reasonable to me.
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  68. #67  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    ON CNN the Malaysian Minister of Transport denied that there were these engine data intercepts. Were there or weren't there?
    There were but they did not show the engines running for 4 hours after the last return.
    What are you basing that statement on?
    The report was that the last engine data was at 1:09 AM Malaysian Time.
    MH370: US officials say plane sent signals 'hours' after losing contact
    Here's a different version:
    Here’s how Reuters explains the “pings”:
    Communications satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday, but the signals gave no indication about where the stray jet was heading nor its technical condition, a source close to the investigation said on Thursday.
    The “pings” equated to an indication that the aircraft’s maintenance troubleshooting systems were ready to communicate with satellites if needed, but no links were opened because Malaysia Airlines and others had not subscribed to the full troubleshooting service, the source said.
    The Wall Street Journal continues to build out its report, first published this morning, that the plane flew for hours after “disappearing.” See the subsequent post on this blog about an important correction the WSJ has appended to its initial report: the theory that the plane flew for hours was based not on a signal from a system inside the Rolls-Royce engines but on a signal from a separate satellite communication systems in the plane, the Journal says.
    Now that sounds reasonable to me.
    Let's see, who now owns the WSJ? Do we think this is still a paper we can rely on?
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  69. #68  
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Let's please not have any assertions or suggestions of pilot error before the facts are known. Sadly, many air crashes have been caused by poor design, poor instrumentation, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, optical illusions, poor training, hijack, fatigue, weather conditions, etc.
    Agreed, it could be anything. But statistically pilot error is far more likely than design fault, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, weather etc.Consider the Air France flight. Everyone suspected a catastrophic failure due to weather. But in the end it was just a very stupid mistake by a pilot who should have known better.Or take 2012. Of all the fatal commercial aviation accidents, more than half were caused by pilot error, ranging from controlled flight into terrain to both pilots being drunk.
    Perhaps, but it is nevertheless unreasonable and distasteful to judge anybody until the full facts are known. By your logic, the two Shuttle disasters would have been pilot error. So please, a little respect and patience. OB
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    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Perhaps, but it is nevertheless unreasonable and distasteful to judge anybody until the full facts are known.
    It is just as distasteful to assume terrorism, or that a designer was at fault. In the long run, pilot error is the smart initial assumption.

    By your logic, the two Shuttle disasters would have been pilot error.
    Nope. So far ALL fatalities in space (at least in the US) have been caused by vehicle failures that the pilot/crew could do nothing about. So at least for NASA, the smart bet would be on vehicle failure.
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    Quote Originally Posted by billvon View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Perhaps, but it is nevertheless unreasonable and distasteful to judge anybody until the full facts are known.
    It is just as distasteful to assume terrorism, or that a designer was at fault. In the long run, pilot error is the smart initial assumption.
    By your logic, the two Shuttle disasters would have been pilot error.
    Nope. So far ALL fatalities in space (at least in the US) have been caused by vehicle failures that the pilot/crew could do nothing about. So at least for NASA, the smart bet would be on vehicle failure.
    No, you're missing my point. What I am saying is that at the time of the two shuttle disasters, we did not know what had caused the explosions/break-ups. Was it something the crew did wrong before MaxQ or Mach 19, or was it vehicle failure? Your attitude would seem to have been to say oh well it was probably pilot error - something the astronauts did wrong - can you see how distasteful that is? In the case of this 777 disappearance, we do not yet know what has caused the problem, so I am asking you politely not to apportion blame to the pilots until we actually know what happened. Innocent until proven guilty - remember that?
    Last edited by One beer; March 14th, 2014 at 08:54 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Let's see, who now owns the WSJ? Do we think this is still a paper we can rely on?
    That is an incredibly weak rebuttal, several kilometres below your usually excellent standard.
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    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Let's please not have any assertions or suggestions of pilot error before the facts are known.

    Sadly, many air crashes have been caused by poor design, poor instrumentation, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, optical illusions, poor training, hijack, fatigue, weather conditions, etc.

    Generally when at work flying, I can see another aircraft up to 20 miles away. Beyond that, I can usually see where it is by following its contrails if there are any, or its strobe lights at night. I would say that my visual limit for seeing another aircraft's strobes on a clear night is about 60-80 miles.
    One beer, in your list of possible causes of this incident, you have yourself, listed pilot error before the facts are known.
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    Without evidence anything is possible.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    Let's please not have any assertions or suggestions of pilot error before the facts are known.

    Sadly, many air crashes have been caused by poor design, poor instrumentation, instrumentation failure, equipment failure, structural failure, optical illusions, poor training, hijack, fatigue, weather conditions, etc.

    Generally when at work flying, I can see another aircraft up to 20 miles away. Beyond that, I can usually see where it is by following its contrails if there are any, or its strobe lights at night. I would say that my visual limit for seeing another aircraft's strobes on a clear night is about 60-80 miles.
    One beer, in your list of possible causes of this incident, you have yourself, listed pilot error before the facts are known.
    Of course it is in the list of "possible causes". And Bilvon could be right in saying pilot error is the most probable cause in most airline disasters, but in this case I'm thinking it was the plane, say a fire in the cockpit, but the history of the copilot smoking up front sort of points the finger back to possible pilot error again.
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    There are rumblings that are noting that both the Andaman Islands and Pakistan were within the range of the plane. OTOH, I have to admit one source is the Daily Mail, which I evaluate as a propaganda source. Still, it's being bounced around. Time will tell.

    Muslims hijacking a plane full of Chinese and taking them to Pakistan could be a really nasty scenario, considering both are nuclear powers. If that happens we might need a thread in Politics about it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by One beer View Post
    No, you're missing my point. What I am saying is that at the time of the two shuttle disasters, we did not know what had caused the explosions/break-ups. Was it something the crew did wrong before MaxQ or Mach 19, or was it vehicle failure?
    After the Columbia disaster, the most likely cause, based on the data available, was vehicle failure. If I assumed that, would I have been right or wrong?

    Your attitude would seem to have been to say oh well it was probably pilot error - something the astronauts did wrong
    That is not supported by the data. The most common cause of fatal incidents in US spaceflight is vehicle failure. The most common cause of fatal incidents in commercial aviation is pilot error.

    can you see how distasteful that is?
    Not distasteful, just erroneous.

    In the case of this 777 disappearance, we do not yet know what has caused the problem, so I am asking you politely not to apportion blame to the pilots until we actually know what happened. Innocent until proven guilty - remember that?
    I am not saying anyone is guilty. I am just saying that the MOST LIKELY explanation is pilot error. Not proven, just most likely - based on previous similar incidents.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schneibster View Post
    There are rumblings that are noting that both the Andaman Islands and Pakistan were within the range of the plane. OTOH, I have to admit one source is the Daily Mail, which I evaluate as a propaganda source. Still, it's being bounced around. Time will tell.

    Muslims hijacking a plane full of Chinese and taking them to Pakistan could be a really nasty scenario, considering both are nuclear powers. If that happens we might need a thread in Politics about it.
    The plane just flies on level till the fuel runs out. Australia was on the map I saw, now that would be a very easy target to hit.
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    Meanwhile, on Twitter:

    David KaminskiMorrow ‏@FlightDKM 7h Keeping #MH370 conspiracy theorists quiet by asking them to comb endless photos of sea water is black-belt level trolling.

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  80. #79  
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    I think that, as a pilot, One beer is more sensitive to the "pilot error" label being slapped on this missing flight until more information brings clarity/discernment.

    Let me create a new category of cause: intentional deception/diversion. Not the same as pilot error. Let me explain.

    Apparently within minutes of ground control of the flight being given by Malaysia to Vietnam, the ID transponder deactivated and the aircraft made a significant, unplanned change in course and altitude. Coincidence? To my mind, it doesn't look like a coincidence. In fact, it's so much of a coincidence that I would say intentional. Maybe the plane was pirated, or maybe it was the one or more of the flight crew. (Sorry One beer)

    Apparently, Malaysia doesn't have basic radar coverage of it's interior/borders/shores/etc, especially for something the size of a 777 — about 750,000 pounds (~350,000 kg), for monitoring the airliner without transponder contact. Older radar that can't see a small, stealthy drone is one thing, but not a run-of-the-mill, ¾-million-pound airliner. And, when it comes to lack of basic high tech security, the sparsely populated and poor Mali with its back to the world's largest desert is one thing, but not a thriving country with a $12K/capita GDP. Maybe it's true, but I find this hard to believe.
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    This would need correction and that I am not a aviation expert.. I would postulate that to say this might be pilot error would be only because a gun is being pressed into his neck... Turn that off, and this off, and alter heading and altitude. It seems logical that foul play not structural failure.. That the 777 could have remained airborne for four hours seems that it was under control and did not want to be found.. It might have even landed.. The point is We do not yet know.. That until wreckage of flotsam is found we will speculate.. " Car 54 where are you ?" That I feel for the families of the lost.. Grief.
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    Good for you for thinking of the families, mark.
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    Just spied this little nugget on CNN.
    * (CNN) -- A 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck in the sea off India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday evening, the U.S. Geological Survey said. *
    This event will have absolutely nothing to do with the missing aircraft. I do however fear that the conspiracy theorists, will find a connection between the two events.

    5.5 magnitude quake strikes in sea off Andaman and Nicobar Islands - CNN.com
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Just spied this little nugget on CNN.
    * (CNN) -- A 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck in the sea off India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday evening, the U.S. Geological Survey said. *
    This event will have absolutely nothing to do with the missing aircraft. I do however fear that the conspiracy theorists, will find a connection between the two events.

    5.5 magnitude quake strikes in sea off Andaman and Nicobar Islands - CNN.com
    It's a sign!
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  85. #84  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    Just spied this little nugget on CNN.
    * (CNN) -- A 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck in the sea off India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday evening, the U.S. Geological Survey said. *
    This event will have absolutely nothing to do with the missing aircraft. I do however fear that the conspiracy theorists, will find a connection between the two events.

    5.5 magnitude quake strikes in sea off Andaman and Nicobar Islands - CNN.com
    It's a sign!
    It may well be a sign LOL. However this earth quake does not seem to have been reported in the local papers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Wilson View Post
    A 5.5 well away from population and deep is just a big truck going past! No surprises there.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schneibster View Post
    There are rumblings that are noting that both the Andaman Islands and Pakistan were within the range of the plane. OTOH, I have to admit one source is the Daily Mail, which I evaluate as a propaganda source. Still, it's being bounced around. Time will tell.

    Muslims hijacking a plane full of Chinese and taking them to Pakistan could be a really nasty scenario, considering both are nuclear powers. If that happens we might need a thread in Politics about it.
    I was wondering whether Somali pirates might have decided to try planes instead of ships……..
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Schneibster View Post
    There are rumblings that are noting that both the Andaman Islands and Pakistan were within the range of the plane. OTOH, I have to admit one source is the Daily Mail, which I evaluate as a propaganda source. Still, it's being bounced around. Time will tell.

    Muslims hijacking a plane full of Chinese and taking them to Pakistan could be a really nasty scenario, considering both are nuclear powers. If that happens we might need a thread in Politics about it.
    I was wondering whether Somali pirates might have decided to try planes instead of ships……..
    And miscalculated on the amount of fuel required? Could it have gone that far?
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    HOT: CNN Exclusive: Analysis shows Flight 370 crashed in Indian Ocean - CNN.com

    A classified intelligence analysis done jointly by the US and Malaysia reportedly has the plane going down in the Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean nearby, according to a CNN report based on confidential sources.

    Edited to add: NASA has now joined the search: http://thespacereporter.com/2014/03/...laysian-plane/
    Last edited by Schneibster; March 14th, 2014 at 08:12 PM.
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  90. #89  
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    So billvon, if - God forbid - someone dear to you, your wife, daughter, mother, brother, son etc. was killed in a car crash, and I, without knowing anything about the accident said to you 'well they probably caused the crash by driving badly', how would you feel?



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    The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) suggested today (Sat 15 Mar) that technical expertise required to silence the many communications systems on missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 indicates that its disappearance may have been an inside job.

    To illustrate the complexity involved, WSJ explained that disabling the transponder ― the first signal that was lost from MH370 ― required someone to trip a circuit breaker hidden behind an overhead panel.

    Next, to shut down the onboard reporting system ― which happened shortly after the plane was last seen on radar ― one must key in a series of commands on either of the cockpit's two flight management computers.

    Extremely detailed knowledge of the plane, its internal structure and systems are also needed to physically disconnect the satellite communications system, WSJ said. This is because the satellite data system is spread across the aircraft, which would require physically accessing several key components.

    “Disconnecting the satellite data system from the jet's central computer, known as AIMS (Airplane Information Management System), would disable its transmission,” said WSJ. “The central computer can be reached from inside the jet while it is flying, but its whereabouts would have to be known by someone deeply familiar with the 777.”

    However, an aviation expert said that disabling the many communications systems onboard was not as complex as the WSJ suggested. But he added, “to know what to do there to disable” systems would require “considerable understanding” of the 777, as some airlines use special screws to secure the access hatch leading to the area below the floor to curb unauthorised intrusion.

    Local and US sources are now also convinced the aircraft recorded by military radar flying west across peninsular Malaysia and headed for the Indian Ocean was MH370. Investigators are now increasingly entertaining the possibility of some form of foul play in the mysterious disappearance.

    source
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrmonroe View Post
    The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) suggested today (Sat 15 Mar) that technical expertise required to silence the many communications systems on missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 indicates that its disappearance may have been an inside job.

    To illustrate the complexity involved, WSJ explained that disabling the transponder ― the first signal that was lost from MH370 ― required someone to trip a circuit breaker hidden behind an overhead panel.

    Next, to shut down the onboard reporting system ― which happened shortly after the plane was last seen on radar ― one must key in a series of commands on either of the cockpit's two flight management computers.

    Extremely detailed knowledge of the plane, its internal structure and systems are also needed to physically disconnect the satellite communications system, WSJ said. This is because the satellite data system is spread across the aircraft, which would require physically accessing several key components.

    “Disconnecting the satellite data system from the jet's central computer, known as AIMS (Airplane Information Management System), would disable its transmission,” said WSJ. “The central computer can be reached from inside the jet while it is flying, but its whereabouts would have to be known by someone deeply familiar with the 777.”

    However, an aviation expert said that disabling the many communications systems onboard was not as complex as the WSJ suggested. But he added, “to know what to do there to disable” systems would require “considerable understanding” of the 777, as some airlines use special screws to secure the access hatch leading to the area below the floor to curb unauthorised intrusion.

    Local and US sources are now also convinced the aircraft recorded by military radar flying west across peninsular Malaysia and headed for the Indian Ocean was MH370. Investigators are now increasingly entertaining the possibility of some form of foul play in the mysterious disappearance.

    source
    You take it over but don't have a plan to land it?? That bit doesn't seem to make sense unless it was heading to Sri Lanka, say the Tamils Tigers (but that war is over!)
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    After all the to and fro. They have now said that they strongly suspect whatever happened to the plane was a deliberate act. And they are now going to be searching in the Indian Ocean.

    MALAYSIA Airlines flight MH370 was traced seven hours after it was last in contact with civilian air traffic control and a search for the plane is being extended, the Malaysian PM said tonight.

    Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak spoke after it was reported that a Malaysian government official said investigators had concluded the plane was hijacked.


    While Mr Razak did not use the term “hijacking”, other than in an allusion to media reports, he did say that investigators believe the missing Malaysia Airline’s communications were deliberately disabled and that it turned back from its flight to Beijing.


    “These movements are consistent with deliberate action by someone on the plane,” said Mr Razak.


    Najib also said that authorities are now trying to trace the airplane missing for more than a week across two possible “corridors’’ - a northern corridor from northern Thailand through to the border of Kazakstan and Turkmenistan, and a southern corridor from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jrmonroe View Post
    as some airlines use special screws to secure the access hatch leading to the area below the floor to curb unauthorised intrusion.
    ROFL. It takes a drill to open them, ya really hard (rolls eyes--done it hundreds of times). Special screws are only good if you intend to reuse the screw.

    And I find the lack of basic radar coverage darn hard to believe--we're talking really really old tech.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    And I find the lack of basic radar coverage darn hard to believe--we're talking really really old tech.
    Radar coverage is good only over land areas; over open ocean the coverage is spotty at best. It would only take going below a certain altitude to not show up on any land-based civilian radar system. I don't know what the situation with military systems is, though.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markus Hanke View Post
    I don't know what the situation with military systems is, though.
    There may be a lot of reluctance to release any information gathered this way as it would provide information about their defence systems.
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    I really dislike them saying anything until their certain of anything. It seems the media again is causing more misunderstanding about what happened due to misinformation by those in charge of this investigation. They should just state that all efforts are being made into locating this plane and that's all. Everything else is only speculation and fodder for the media.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    There may be a lot of reluctance to release any information gathered this way as it would provide information about their defence systems.
    True. Given the latest reports I see on CNN, the Indian navy might have a thing or two to contribute here, given that they have major radar installations in the Andaman and Nicobar islands. Who knows. It will all be revealed eventually.
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    It is beginning to sound like something from James Bond movie: Plane flown undetected to a secret lair on an island or in the mountains of Kazakhstan...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strange View Post
    It is beginning to sound like something from James Bond movie: Plane flown undetected to a secret lair on an island or in the mountains of Kazakhstan...
    Yes. A lair run and maintained by Nazis.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markus Hanke View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    And I find the lack of basic radar coverage darn hard to believe--we're talking really really old tech.
    Radar coverage is good only over land areas; over open ocean the coverage is spotty at best. It would only take going below a certain altitude to not show up on any land-based civilian radar system. I don't know what the situation with military systems is, though.
    The last known location was within range (about 200 miles for most Air Control), as was the hypothetical route back and over Indian ocean. It could in theory of turned North and before heading West but that's no better than the media's wild speculations and very few facts.
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