Hi

I posted the other day but I think I could have explained better what I am looking for, so hence this post.

I was wondering how you account for time when using a PDF to try and ascertain the probability of an event happening over very long periods of time?

If I have a data series which is described by a distribution, say log-normal and I want to work out the proabability of x being greater than y happening say by 30 years ? I guess it is allied to asking to what happens if you are using the area under the curve to look at probabilities when the distribution might change shape substantially over a long sweep of time and could be better described by a different equation.

Would you use the Fokker-Planck equation in this instance ?

Many thanks

D