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Thread: Probability and time

  1. #1 Probability and time 
    New Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2006

    I posted the other day but I think I could have explained better what I am looking for, so hence this post.

    I was wondering how you account for time when using a PDF to try and ascertain the probability of an event happening over very long periods of time?
    If I have a data series which is described by a distribution, say log-normal and I want to work out the proabability of x being greater than y happening say by 30 years ? I guess it is allied to asking to what happens if you are using the area under the curve to look at probabilities when the distribution might change shape substantially over a long sweep of time and could be better described by a different equation.

    Would you use the Fokker-Planck equation in this instance ?

    Many thanks

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  3. #2  
    Naz is offline
    Forum Freshman
    Join Date
    May 2007
    I'm still not certain what you mean so i may be totally off the mark, and i don't have a clue what the Fokker-planck equation is so don't know if it will be any use.

    Off the top of my head i would say to use a 2-d distribution and perform a double integral (or double sum if its discrete) to find the total probability of something over a period of time.

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