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Thread: Can Betting Odds Be Cheated?

  1. #1 Can Betting Odds Be Cheated? 
    Forum Senior MoonCanvas's Avatar
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    I have actually posted something similar on a separate site but wanna know what you guys think.

    Assuming you're dealing with spread(typically 50/50 odds)... It's simple, just bet 3x the amount of your last bet(example; 1, 3, 9, 27, 54) until you eventually win. And once you actually win the bet, your win will counter all your losses and puts you at a profit.


    Remember, betting against the spread has 50/50 odds, so it's just like a coin flip. Say you have $10,000 of betting cash and have your first bet at $20 when trying this strategy... To actually get fucked over, you'd have to lose 6 bets in a row($20, $60, $180, $540, $1620, $4860) and the odds of that happening would be 1/64, so in other words your chances of success would be above 98.5%. It's a quick $20(or more).

    In the long run, rumor has it that you eventually are even, but my calculations say you're better off with this strategy than just betting normally.


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  3. #2  
    Brassica oleracea Strange's Avatar
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    This is a martingale. You only need to double your bet each time. However, unless you have an infinite amount of money and an infinite amount of time, there is still a chance you will lose.

    And if it is a game like roulette, the house will win. Period.

    More here: Martingale (betting system) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    The conclusion is that players using martingale strategy pose no threat to a casino.


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    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    The best way of making money from gambling is to acquire shares in a casino.

    Although I recall a news story from the 1970s where a gambler walked into a casino in Vegas, placed $100,000 on red - this was when $100,000 was real money. Won. Pocketed his winnings and left.
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    The problem is this, with 50/50 odds and increasing your stake you will still only win a small amount everytime, then before you've made any real money a chain will come along of 5 or 6 of the same result, each time a losing one for you. This will eat up all the money've you made and all the rest of the money you have. If you want to exploit betting odds, far better to exploit the odds offered 'between' bookies so that you always make a profit regardless of the outcome. This type of opportunity is much rarer, but does crop up suprisingly regularly as bookies try to out do each with better and better odds to attract customers.
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    Brassica oleracea Strange's Avatar
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    A book on probability theory I read many years ago (where I first came across the martingale) suggested one possible strategy for winning if you suspect the casino is less than completely honest: always bet a small amount against the largest stake on the table. The house will let you win rather than the large stake. Of course, if they realise what you are doing, they will take you outside and beat the *** out of you!
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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post


    Assuming you're dealing with spread(typically 50/50 odds)...
    What is "spread"?
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    Forum Senior MoonCanvas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sculptor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post


    Assuming you're dealing with spread(typically 50/50 odds)...
    What is "spread"?
    "Spread" in sports betting is when casinos set the odds to be 50/50 so that you can't just get easy money betting against underdogs. Example:
    Giants +7
    Patriots -7
    If you bet on the Patriots to win, they must win by more than 7 for you to win the bet, but if they win by exactly 7 then it's a "push" and your betting money is refunded. Betting on the Giants means you win the bet if they win the game or only lose by 7 points. Also, notice how the odds are adjusted in an effort to make them 50/50 probability.
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  9. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sculptor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post


    Assuming you're dealing with spread(typically 50/50 odds)...
    What is "spread"?
    "Spread" in sports betting is when casinos set the odds to be 50/50 so that you can't just get easy money betting against underdogs. Example:
    Giants +7
    Patriots -7
    If you bet on the Patriots to win, they must win by more than 7 for you to win the bet, but if they win by exactly 7 then it's a "push" and your betting money is refunded. Betting on the Giants means you win the bet if they win the game or only lose by 7 points. Also, notice how the odds are adjusted in an effort to make them 50/50 probability.
    Have you ever actually been to a sports book at a casino? You put up $11 to win $10. So if you place two bets and win one and lose one, you walk away down a buck. That's how they make money. Same with illegal betting. If you win half your bets over the long run, you lose money.
    Last edited by someguy1; July 15th, 2013 at 10:56 AM.
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  10. #9  
    Forum Senior MoonCanvas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by someguy1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sculptor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post


    Assuming you're dealing with spread(typically 50/50 odds)...
    What is "spread"?
    "Spread" in sports betting is when casinos set the odds to be 50/50 so that you can't just get easy money betting against underdogs. Example:
    Giants +7
    Patriots -7
    If you bet on the Patriots to win, they must win by more than 7 for you to win the bet, but if they win by exactly 7 then it's a "push" and your betting money is refunded. Betting on the Giants means you win the bet if they win the game or only lose by 7 points. Also, notice how the odds are adjusted in an effort to make them 50/50 probability.
    Have you ever actually been to a sports book at a casino? You put up $11 to win $10. So if you place two bets and win one and lose one, you walk away down a buck. That's how they make money. Same with illegal betting. If you win half your bets over the long run, you lose money.
    If you have a lot of money to bet with and can be able to tripple the original bet x10+ then the betting odds are slightly in your favor even if you eventually have a big loss(which won't happen if you're smart enough to pull out).

    Update; I forgot to mention this but most casino's prevent this by having higher minimal bets. Online betting sites, however, have various limits, with some even having the minimum bet set at 50cents.
    Last edited by MoonCanvas; July 18th, 2013 at 01:15 AM.
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  11. #10  
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    As a brief diversion, does anyone know of an historical connection between the subject of this thread and imaginary numbers?
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    All gamble games ensures the odds of winning are less than the odds of loosing, as far as I know. Though I heard in stock markets there's a way to basically steal money, I heard one guy who's smart did some calculations on the rise of stocks and gain a few million in one night, don't know if it's true or not.
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  13. #12  
    Forum Senior MoonCanvas's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wise Man View Post
    All gamble games ensures the odds of winning are less than the odds of loosing, as far as I know. Though I heard in stock markets there's a way to basically steal money, I heard one guy who's smart did some calculations on the rise of stocks and gain a few million in one night, don't know if it's true or not.
    I tried to cheat the stock market but failed every time. However, I did conjure up a pretty risky but possible method I didn't have the balls to test.

    Basically if I attempted it; I'd check pre-market for high-volume $2+ stocks that have gone up the most and buy it seconds before the opening bell, then sell it immediately at open. Before dropping like a rock, these types of stocks tend to have a VERY short moment of increase once the stock market opens. The problem is that I'd never tried a pre-market buy before, so I ended up never trying this tactic.
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  14. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoonCanvas View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Wise Man View Post
    All gamble games ensures the odds of winning are less than the odds of loosing, as far as I know. Though I heard in stock markets there's a way to basically steal money, I heard one guy who's smart did some calculations on the rise of stocks and gain a few million in one night, don't know if it's true or not.
    I tried to cheat the stock market but failed every time. However, I did conjure up a pretty risky but possible method I didn't have the balls to test.

    Basically if I attempted it; I'd check pre-market for high-volume $2+ stocks that have gone up the most and buy it seconds before the opening bell, then sell it immediately at open. Before dropping like a rock, these types of stocks tend to have a VERY short moment of increase once the stock market opens. The problem is that I'd never tried a pre-market buy before, so I ended up never trying this tactic.
    Good idea, but I wouldn't risk it... you might loose a lot.Unless there's a full-proof plan, I'm never buying stocks again .
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