# Calculating the odds.

• March 26th, 2013, 09:57 AM
MacGyver1968
Calculating the odds.
I needed a little math help, as my brain doesn't seem to work this morning.

I play a game called "Path of Exile". In this game there are "Orbs of Chance" that when used on a plain item, give a 1 in 500 chance of turning it into a unique item. Someone was claiming that he used 5 chance orbs on 5 items, and 3 became uniques. Sounds like a BS story to me, but I just wanted to calculate the actual odds of that happening.

From what I remember from school, if I wanted to calculate the odds of getting 3 uniques with 3 orbs, then it would be 500 x 500 x 500. I'm just not sure what to do with the other 2 failed attempts.

• March 26th, 2013, 10:31 AM
MacGyver1968
Each event has an independent probability of 1 in 500 for success...and he was supposedly successful in 3 out of 5 events.

Thanks for the answer. So basically, it's the same chance of being struck by lightning during a terrorist attack while having sex with Angelina Jolie. :)
• March 26th, 2013, 10:40 AM
MacGyver1968
Ok...stupid question...how do I convert the 0.000008% chance into "1 in X" chance. Is it one in 800,000?
• March 26th, 2013, 10:48 AM
Nehushtan
Quote:

Originally Posted by MacGyver1968
Ok...stupid question...how do I convert the 0.000008% chance into "1 in X" chance. Is it one in 800,000?

It will happen 8 times out of .
• March 26th, 2013, 11:30 AM
MacGyver1968
Thanks...my brain was going "full retard" this morning...I should have known it was 1/x. DUUUUUH.