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Thread: demonstration of advantage of keeping on on lucky strikes

  1. #1 demonstration of advantage of keeping on on lucky strikes 
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    folklore knows if you are in a winning streak you have to keep betting while if you are losing is better to retire

    ill prove this is mathematically true and logic:

    lets analize the odds of following this startegy in a single game

    my startegy is bet in pairs, on draw(one win one lose) i keep gambling, on losing i retire (one lose one lose), i only keep gambling on win(one win one win) or on draw

    in this universe the first two posible outcomes are:

    00=win or 11=lose

    01 or 10 doesnt exist in this universe cause if this was the case i would keep gambling, i bet 0.5 euro in ech game

    so the first two posible games that exist in the universe of this staregy are:

    win or lose 00 or 11 for this two theres a chance of 1/4 each profit=0

    the next posible outcomes in this universe are:

    ww or wl with a chance 1/16 profit 1 euro

    then www or wwl chance 1/64 profit 2 euro

    then wwww or wwwl chance 1/256 profit 3 euro

    then wwwww or wwwwl chance 1/1024 profit 4 euro

    ...


    these are the only posible outcomes of a single game with this strategy the rest just dont exist

    so now its just a matter of adding the odds:

    1/16+ 2/64 +3/256 +4/ 1024 ...=0.109375

    so following the staregy of keeping in a lucky strike and retiring on a bad one gives you a 10% edge

    popular folklore is right on this one


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  3. #2  
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    with this like with quantum entanglement is imposible to know whats gonna be a randon number

    still nonlocality as with quantum entanglement is big enough as to can have a winning startegy


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  4. #3  
    Forum Masters Degree Twit of wit's Avatar
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    there is no difference when you bet, the odds do not change
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  5. #4  
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    actually i got it reversed lets start all over with the simetric strategy:

    i gamble 3 couples of games then stop playing unless my startegy makes me stop before

    if i draw getting 01 or 10 i keep gambling if i win i stop if i lose i keep at it untill i win or the 3 couple of games are over

    this is the universe of posible end games:

    w i retire
    lw i retire
    llw or lll or ll draw or ll draw

    there are no other elements in this universe

    for w the chance is 1 / 4 so theres a chance 1 /4 i win one
    lw doesnt count is a draw 0 chance 1/(4*4)
    for llw or lll or lldraw or lldraw theres a chance 1/(4*4*4) each

    for llw i lose -1 with lll i lose -3 with lldraw i lose -2 with ll draw i lose -2

    so lets add the odds:

    win chance 1* 1/4=16/64
    lose chance -8* 1/64= -8/64

    edit

    i neglected ldl and ld"l so actually i can lose - 12/64 but win 16/64

    dll doesnt exist in this universe because if i draw on first i stop
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  6. #5  
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    the key is im applying a tetravvalent value w,l,d or d" to a binary tree

    imagine i follow the startegy of completly ignore draw just dont count them an i applied this system

    the universe of this startegy would be only composed of

    w +1 chance 1/2(now its 1/2 not 1/4)
    lw 0 chance 1/(2*2)
    llw -1 chance 1/(2*2*2)
    lll -3 chance 1/(2*2*2)
    now with this startegy i win 1*4/8

    and lose -4 * 1/8

    0 gain 0 lose chance



    but if you apply a tetravalent tree to a binary one locality of randomness is broken still you cant know the future but you can have an strategy to have future to be favorable
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  7. #6  
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    i realized of my mistake:


    i neglected ldd", ld"d , ldd and ld"d" with with the 4/64 edge is lost
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