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Thread: human reproduction a tossing the coin game

  1. #1 human reproduction a tossing the coin game 
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    my line is extreamly odd i come from an uninterrupted chain of males

    and so does you and everybody, but do you realize hor rare this is

    in fact is so rare that 5000 years ago the mithocondrial eve was the only to have a matriarchal line that lasted till today

    if you time travelled and kill them you would kill grandmother humanity and wipe out humanity

    do you want to know how rare would be that today somebody had and inturrapte line of males that lasted 5000 years?

    lets play the toos the coin game:

    assuming human population remains constant everybody would have two childs not taking into account the ones who die without repruducting

    so if you have a male you have two more chances he has another male since he would have two sons

    so you toss the coin two times and get a head an a tail

    as you got a head a boy he will have two sons so two more tosses of the coin

    lets take a random game in which you get this serie:

    ox ox ox ox ox ox ox...

    so you always get on the two throws one head one tail.... and for every head yo get anothe two tosses

    its easy to see the chances to keep this game going for 1000 generation is quite remote, maybe as close as doubling the money a thousand times and winn in all

    are antievolution people correct and god put the fosils there to confuse us?

    and happy +mas


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  3. #2  
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    Of course not. God created the earth 30 seconds ago with all our memories in place.

    Do you also have a point other than sarcasm? Check this, and don't forget to read the mouseover.

    Merry Xmas to you too!


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  4. #3  
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    I've got a little experience with Matlab and was bored so I decided to test this out. My methods below are from an intro college course of Matlab and it may not be efficient and it may be wrong. I'll do my best to explain what's going on. First I'm going to explain the significance of the numbers used:

    1,000,000: Group of the population. Not much significance.
    3500: Take the group of the population and multiply it by 3500 to get roughly the world population of females able to reproduce. I did this since Matlab sadly cannot handle doing a random number generator for 3.5 billion numbers(haha).
    75: I pulled up a random page that says 66.57 is the average death age of the world today so I took 5000 devided it by 66.57 and got 75, the number of generations to test.

    Basically what I did(or tried to do) was take a segment of the population and generate a random number between 0 and 1. If the number was less than .5 it would round down to 0, if it was equal to or greater it would goto 1. It would then repeat this for 75 total generations. It would then search all these people to find whoever managed to have a boy every time, signified by the number 1, and add it into the total counter. This would then repeat for the entire population.

    Code:
    for Y = 1:3500
    POP=round(rand(1000,1000));
    X=0;
        while(X<75)
            X=X+1;
            sum(sum(POP));
            for A = 1:1000000
                if POP(A)==1
                    POP(A)=round(rand(POP(A)));
                end
            end
        end
        total = sum(sum(POP))
    end
    PS, it takes about 5 seconds on my computer, with 4GB of ram to go through all the way once which means it would take about 5 hours for me to display a result (5 seconds * 3500 tests / 60 seconds / 60 minutes). I'm totally not doing this but anyone that wants to maybe clean up the code or let it run I'd like to see the result.
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  5. #4 Re: human reproduction a tossing the coin game 
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    Quote Originally Posted by luxtpm
    my line is extreamly odd i come from an uninterrupted chain of males

    and so does you and everybody, but do you realize hor rare this is

    in fact is so rare that 5000 years ago the mithocondrial eve was the only to have a matriarchal line that lasted till today

    if you time travelled and kill them you would kill grandmother humanity and wipe out humanity

    do you want to know how rare would be that today somebody had and inturrapte line of males that lasted 5000 years?

    lets play the toos the coin game:

    assuming human population remains constant everybody would have two childs not taking into account the ones who die without repruducting

    so if you have a male you have two more chances he has another male since he would have two sons

    so you toss the coin two times and get a head an a tail

    as you got a head a boy he will have two sons so two more tosses of the coin

    lets take a random game in which you get this serie:

    ox ox ox ox ox ox ox...

    so you always get on the two throws one head one tail.... and for every head yo get anothe two tosses

    its easy to see the chances to keep this game going for 1000 generation is quite remote, maybe as close as doubling the money a thousand times and winn in all

    are antievolution people correct and god put the fosils there to confuse us?

    and happy +mas
    I have no idea what you think your point is. The probability of a long series of alternating heads and tails on a coin has nothing whatever to do with the probability/certainty of a long string of male/female pairs in one's genealogy.

    One is a sequence of pairs of independent random events. The other is anything but a sequence of independent random events.

    Probability is the most misused branch of mathematics. Your example is one of the most egregious misuses.
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  6. #5  
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    if mithocondrial eve had died without reproducting would humanity still exist?

    my father put his last name legally with the name he signed books with

    what are the chances this last name lasts?

    lets assume that if population is to keep its numbers every person will have a media of 2.1 childs, the 0.1 we ignore them since are the ones who are gonna die before reproducting

    so lets play the tossing the coin game to see chances this last name lasts:

    my father has two child(actually we are more but i use the media) two tosses of the coin if he has a male that will be two more tosses and so on till he runs out of tosses and the surname gets lost

    to see how imposible is to win at this game lets suppose that appear this serie ox ox ox ox ox ox ox ox...

    evrithing is fine for every two tosses he gets one male so two extra tosses

    but oh once after this serie appear two girls, no more tosses game over the last name is lost

    now if no man from today gets a patriarchal line and no woman gets a matriarcal line , that lasts into the future, they allways win at the tossing the coin game, humanity just cant exist in the future

    so unless proved wrong in my tossing the coin game be a right way to see how long my last name can last ill believe either evolution is false or that evolution doesnt follow probability
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  7. #6  
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    Your logic fails in too many ways to start naming them.

    I suggest looking backwards rather than forward, it's much easier.

    The probability for a man to have a continuous line of males before him is one.
    The probability for a woman to have a continuous line of females before her is one.

    Also, did you read the comic (with mouseover) I suggested?
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  8. #7  
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    the comic is in my favourites thanks, amazing comic

    but i dont want to make the point evolution is false but that it doesnt follow probability

    theres 1 posibility we exist today cause theres a one posibilty there was a mithocondrial eve, a pure matriarcal line years ago

    but what are the chances we exist in 5000 years or what is the same that exists today a mithocondrial eve that will have a purely matriarcal line that will last at least 5000 years

    to solve this problem i use the tossing the coin game:

    every girl has two tosses since she will have a media of two children if we suppose the population remains constant, for every girl she gets there are two more tosses and so on

    what are the chances this game can last lets say 100 generations?

    even if this game is palyed by all the girls in the world i see posibilities to win minimal
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  9. #8  
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    That's because you are ignoring all the girls that get multiple daughters. Every girl will get on average one daughter, so, on average, the amount of girls stays constant.

    Where do you get the 5000 years, btw? There is a continuous line of mothers of millions of years, going from each and every living female creature (with the exception of some creatures that have alternative reproduction techniques).

    Suppose there are one million women. The next generation, there will be again about one million women, give or take a few thousand, with a very, very high probability. The generation after that, again about one million women, etc... The chance of there suddenly being no women in a generation seems rather slim to me, even if you exclude all other balancing factors.
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  10. #9  
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    yes if you analize the chances that there exists girls the chances are pretty high

    but if you analize the chances that some girl from today gets an exclusivily matriarchal line cahnces are pretty low

    how can this be explained?
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  11. #10  
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    no, the chances are not low. It follows that since, to conceive a child, a woman is necessary there will always be an exclusively matriarchal line, along with EVERY OTHER POSSIBLE COMBINATION IMAGINABLE!!!!!!!!
    Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
    -Plato

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  12. #11  
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    I suppose some point is raise here.
    If adam and eve had children all of the same sex the species would die out ruling
    out 'paternal incest' ie sex with your mother or father or a grandmother/father etc....

    So supposing x=boy and o = girl

    you have the posibilities

    xx
    xo
    ox
    oo


    then


    xxx
    xox
    oxx
    oox
    xxx
    xoo
    oxo
    ooo

    Where a line of all the same means the end of the species, but as you can
    see that diminishes each generation, although it is still posible!!!
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  13. #12  
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    actually, starting from a population of two, chances of failure are much larger due to inbreeding.
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