Thread: New Swine Flu

Any thoughts?!

Well personally, I think it's coming for us and all hope is lost. You?

I'm approaching the status of elderly, so maybe I will survive this pandemic.

I guess I should start bringing home some N95 respirators from work?

i hope it can be contained... :?

The mortality rate doesn't seem too high in developed countries. That's the only good thing I heard about it (if selfishness is allowed).

For the rest it the whole thing sounds like a fucking disaster to human society.

I think (and I haven't been following the news), that we will probably see more cases over the next few days. I also think that with a bit of common sense by the public and some decent advice from the respective health authorities we might be ... and I’m going against the dooms day media, might be able to survive this thing.

I wonder how governments and the services will cope; they claim to have been planning for such an event after SARS and “the bird flu”. I am wondering however that if there is a serious outbreak, will things shut down here? Public event, Exams and the like?

Your from Ireland robbie, any Idea what our wonderful government have planned? Bog under the door

Well they have stockpiled tamiflu. But its not that great; it may reduce mortality.
Our government will probably just wait and see; there arent any travel restrictions anywhere yet.

Having spoken to a microbiologist; it seems the whole thing may be blown out of proportion. It is a new flu but it may not have that high a mortality rate as SARS did.

Early days yet anyway; it will be interesting to see what happens.

EDIT: oh wait, there are travel restrictions now!

Originally Posted by Robbie

Well they have stockpiled tamiflu. But its not that great; it may reduce mortality.

If you look closely at the box, you'll actually find it's Uni-Flu with "tami" written on it with a crayon. It gives colds and flu the old "one-two" I hear. But I'm not sure what that unitless value represents in terms of efficacy.

Originally Posted by goodgod3rd

Your from Ireland robbie, any Idea what our wonderful government have planned? Bog under the door

We're talking about a government whose response to recession is to cut funds to education, science and anything else vaguely likely to enhance our future economic viability whilst impotently watching all attempts at entrepreneurial endeavours and innovation die due to the banks hoarding their bailout money. So, planning for a major viral pandemic... terrifying thought really.

I'd imagine their solution to a swine flu outbreak will involve lots of fire and a private jet to the nearest tax haven.

Guess which country I'm from.

Guess which country I'm from.

Em - Ireland?

Yes, I gather that would be what was in mind, Pills and Hope for the best, I guess that’s all most places can do. England (according to the guardian) is thinking of advising people to implement a support network so people can be isolated at home.

Early days – and as of yet the mortality rate isn’t too high. I wonder will we start seeing masked persons on the luas?

Well all in all I guess the wait and see would be all we can do, despite their shortcomings as a government, I hope they can make tough decisions if they have too. (They didn’t hesitate and remove our pork from the shelf’s, even if that was slightly over the top, was a reasonable enough move)

I have a question. Anyone know how it kills? My reading says that it probably uses the same mechanism as the old Spanish Flu of 1918, which causes a 'cytokine storm'. In other words, an over-active immune response. However, this does not tell me what the actual cause of death is.

Some suggestions have come in that the virus is already mutating to a less lethal form. Here's hoping.

Originally Posted by skeptic

I have a question. Anyone know how it kills? My reading says that it probably uses the same mechanism as the old Spanish Flu of 1918, which causes a 'cytokine storm'. In other words, an over-active immune response. However, this does not tell me what the actual cause of death is.

I have also looked into this and have not found a definitive answer. Your presumption of inducing a 'cytokine storm' is probably correct. Those infected with H5N1 also exhibit an overactive inflammatory response and a dysregulated cytokine release. I have found on the net that there are studies being done to determine the immune response in lab animals but that is it...

Most people die from resp. complications. PNU sets in pretty quickly.

Originally Posted by Sfere

Most people die from resp. complications. PNU sets in pretty quickly.

Exactly. Due to these increased cytokine levels, necrosis and tissue destruction occurs as well as pulmonary oedema (pneumonia) alveolar haemorrhaging etc.

This version doesnt seem to cause a cytokine storm reaction from what we've heard anyway. Death would be very rapid and selective for the fit and young which it doesnt appear to be.

Respiratory pneumonia probably would be the primary cause of death though.

Does anybody have a theory about why it would kill people in Mexico but not the USA? Or, could it just be luck?

I have three theories.

1. A number of unlucky Mexicans caught the disease near where it originated, and copped a bigger, and ultimately fatal dose.

2. Poorer medical treatment.

3. The virus is evolving into a less nasty form. A pathogen that kills its host is less successful, since it no longer is passed on to new hosts. Evolution of the pathogen is thus to a less virulent form.

Of course, it could all be pure luck.

Is it possible that there are many cases in Mexico that have gone unreported, and the people have recovered.? This would mean the true ratio of deaths to infected people is much smaller than it seems. In the USA there are so far not many cases but nearly all are reported, so the ratio of deaths to infections (which is currently and thankfully zero) will remain low.

We got some topic to discuss about, ha?

To Bunbury
WHO suggests the death toll is much lower than reported. This makes sense since normal seasonal flu kills thousands, and it is easy to get the two mixed up. If so, your suggestion makes perfect sense. Call it theory 5.

I think we should sterilize all air travelers with flame throwers when they exit the airplane.

Yeah they've apparently changed the testing criteria for swine flu in mexico today to deal with this possible error.

New Scientist have material on swine flu.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...ry-so-far.html

I quote :

"So far there seem to have been around 159 fatalities among perhaps 2000 cases in Mexico, although only a small number of these have been confirmed in the laboratory as influenza infections. Although this suggests a scary fatality rate of around 10%, there has so far been just one death outside of Mexico – of a 23-month-old Mexican child in Texas, who had recently been in Mexico. The "case fatality" of the virus is not yet known.

This is the key point that scientists are now investigating. Travellers returning to their home countries after acquiring the virus in Mexico have experienced mild influenza-like illness. What might explain this apparent discrepancy in disease outcome?

A matter of numbers
One simple answer is that there have been many more mild cases in Mexico than counted so far and that the true case fatality rate is more like 1 to 2%. This would be akin to that seen during previous pandemics such as the 1957 (H2N2) Asian influenza or the 1968 (H3N2) Hong Kong flu. Even with the 1918 Spanish influenza, which killed tens of millions, the case fatality rate is estimated at between only 2.5 and 5%."

The slaughter of all pigs in Egypt seems a bit of an over-reaction. There are probably more dogs with rabies in Egypt than pigs with swine flu.

Indeed:

Rabies is endemic in Asia and Africa, where the primary reservoir and vector of the RABV is the domestic dog. Worldwide human mortality from enzootic canine rabies is estimated to be in excess of 55 000 deaths per year, of which approximately 56 % occur in Asia and 44 % in Africa (WHO, 2005).

http://vir.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/88/3/967

Just wanted to leave this; excellent resource from the new england journal of medicine.
http://h1n1.nejm.org/

Does anyone have data to calculate an R0? I cannot seem to find a second set of data, where i can see different generations....
But i do know it is more than one, because of it's spread and less than two as numbers are not multiplying enough daily.

well apparently its at R1.4 now; I coulldnt tell you where the data for that is but I definitely read it somewhere.

Originally Posted by skeptic

I have three theories.

1. A number of unlucky Mexicans caught the disease near where it originated, and copped a bigger, and ultimately fatal dose.

2. Poorer medical treatment.

3. The virus is evolving into a less nasty form. A pathogen that kills its host is less successful, since it no longer is passed on to new hosts. Evolution of the pathogen is thus to a less virulent form.

Of course, it could all be pure luck.

The Canadian government lab sequenced the virus found in Canada and found it is genetically pretty much the same as the one found in Mexico. So, 1 and 3 are not looking so good.

It is probably a combination of 2 with the panic causing very early reporting and prompt medical care. Even deaths in Mexico took a sharp downturn after the media sensation.

As to the pig slaughter in Egypt, I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I would point out that the majority of pig farmers in Egypt happen to be members of the Christian minority, which have a long history of being bullied by the Egyptian government.

I find it just a tad funny that one of the sponsors is PorkIsSafe... lol, oh the irony

I see that the first rapid diagnosis test kit is now available.
http://www.sciencedaily.com:80/relea...0509153309.htm

A very entrepreneurial company is selling a kit that can diagnose swine flu in 2 hours flat!

So some supercomputer simulation predicted pandemic like a week ago. I'm still not sick. Nor is anybody I know. What's up with that?

Originally Posted by paralith

So some supercomputer simulation predicted pandemic like a week ago. I'm still not sick. Nor is anybody I know. What's up with that?

Risk models. By definition, they mean there's some chance squat will happen.

So far from what we're told it appears most people have regular flu-like symptoms.

Has the identity of any victim that died outside Mexico been released yet? I've read of one case where the person that died had no other apparant medical condition(more scary if you happen not to be otherwise sick).

If you happen to have a regular flu or cold, can you catch the swine flu at the same time?(I suppose so though the odds ought to be very slim)

If someone has mild flu symptoms (not worth going to the clinic for) and it happens to be swine flue it wont be reported.

There's now been two deaths in the UK in apparently perfectly healthy people, one of whom was a gp.

I dont know if there has been any explanation as to why this happened, but from my sky news diet, there has been nothing said about any new mutations or forms of the virus.

Swine flu can kill by hypercytokinesis, so healthy people are still at ris, but in slightly diferent ways to healthy people.

According to my local newspaper this morning, there have been 17 swine flu deaths in the UK to date, and over 100,000 people actually contracting the illness.

Most people do not suffer too badly from the disease. It is most likely to harm younger people, and those with underlying health problems such as asthma or obesity, etc.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...mg20327175.000