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Thread: Climate change to wipe out whole florida neighborhoods through sea level rise by the end of this century

  1. #1 Climate change to wipe out whole florida neighborhoods through sea level rise by the end of this century 
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    If you know anyone with property at sea level in south florida, beware climate change! A large percentage of the multimillion dollar houses and properties in south florida will be wiped out by sea level rise due to global warming. "Under current projections, the Atlantic Ocean would swallow much of the Florida Keys in 100 years. Miami-Dade, in turn, would eventually replace them as a chain of islands on the highest parts of the coastal limestone ridge, bordered by the ocean on one side and an Everglades turned into a saltwater bay on the other." these 2 articles explain further:
    Florida Keys gone in 100 years? - KeysNet.com
    Election 2012 climate change: Presidential candidates must take a stand on climate change - OrlandoSentinel.com


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    Not a peep during the debates...not even the republican one a few months back that was held in Florida. State's like NC trying to make it illegal to plan for sea-level rise in their official flood reports(it got overturned after public outcry) etc.

    Sadly though where are the scientist? Publishing in firewalled journals simply isn't sufficient anymore to communicate with the public. I'm at least glad to see some of it getting out--if only through an online mag.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    Not a peep during the debates...not even the republican one a few months back that was held in Florida. State's like NC trying to make it illegal to plan for sea-level rise in their official flood reports(it got overturned after public outcry) etc.

    Sadly though where are the scientist? Publishing in firewalled journals simply isn't sufficient anymore to communicate with the public. I'm at least glad to see some of it getting out--if only through an online mag.
    They are asking for trouble by ignoring the sea level rise issue. There are a lot of developments at sea level on the east coast and people there need to be aware that global warming could cost them their properties.
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    As I understand the way things 'work' in the USA, the whole country needs to be aware of the issue. If federal tax coffers are going to be raided for cash to make up the commercially uninsurable losses that are certain to be incurred, then everyone on the other coast and in the plains has an interest in keeping those expenditures to a minimum.
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    What suprises me is how much development I am seeing at about zero meters above sea level. they just keep building more. What they consider to be luxury now will be a cause for disaster in decades. There are a lot of neighborhoods on the atlantic and gulf coasts that look like what you see below. Everything you see in the google earth view across from Fort Myers is about zero meters above sea level according to google earth. this whole developed area will be history when the sea level rises.
    florida.jpg
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    As I understand the way things 'work' in the USA, the whole country needs to be aware of the issue. If federal tax coffers are going to be raided for cash to make up the commercially uninsurable losses that are certain to be incurred, then everyone on the other coast and in the plains has an interest in keeping those expenditures to a minimum.
    Not before the insurance companies cash in with higher premiums and revised policy statements.
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    I know Sea Level isn't required as part of the FEMA flood estimates namely because it's not a major component of their 100 year estimates, especially in places like Florida where major hurricanes are prevalent.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    I know Sea Level isn't required as part of the FEMA flood estimates namely because it's not a major component of their 100 year estimates, especially in places like Florida where major hurricanes are prevalent.
    Being a long term issue, sea level rise could be worse than expected if global warming continues the way it is going now. If it is not a major component in their 100 year estimates they better get working on it because that change is happening. If people want developments to last a long time they got to consider that the sea level could rise significantly.
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    If people want developments to last a long time they got to consider that the sea level could rise significantly.
    And there's your answer. At the home level, which is FEMA's biggest concern the timeline isn't that far out. When people buy land now days, especially near water, it's more common to bulldoze what ever structures are there and build new--it's all the more true in tropical climates. This is more a concern at the county and state level which don't get insurance but should be considering level rise when building a road, a dike, etc.
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    For local authorities it's not just roads and seawalls.

    It's all the drainage and stormwater systems and sewage processing as well as bridges and emergency service organisation. I know all the developers seem to be running roughshod over everyone for the time being, but I expect there's a bit of a pushback building up in a few areas.
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    For local authorities it's not just roads and seawalls.

    It's all the drainage and stormwater systems and sewage processing as well as bridges and emergency service organisation. I know all the developers seem to be running roughshod over everyone for the time being, but I expect there's a bit of a pushback building up in a few areas.
    I heard about the reverse in seawater starting to come into some locations. With every inch of sea level rise, flooding due to storms will become more common even before the sea level gets high enough to permantly flood certain inhabited areas. Drainage will become less and less effective as the sea level comes closer to being level with peoples properties currently situated well under a meter above sea level. I read that due to the porous underground in south florida, water will percolate from the nearby sea rendering any kind of seawall useless. properties currently only about a foot above the current sea level will be stuck in the water well before the end of this century. Though current estimates put anything between 2.5 and 6.5 feet above sea level to also be flooded by the end of this century.
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    Quote Originally Posted by merrychristmas View Post
    If people want developments to last a long time they got to consider that the sea level could rise significantly.
    If we just hit the avarages of the past 4 interglacials
    The sea level will rise.
    If then you add in possible consequences of enhanced greenhouse gasses
    especially the un mentioned ones
    here's 3 links to sites discussing the greenhouse gasses:

    Addressing Global Climate Change | Steady State Revolution
    PowerPedia:Greenhouse gases - PESWiki
    The main greenhouse gases | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Vital Climate Graphics

    some of these are up to 23000 times more potent than CO2
    and some may last in the atmosphere for 50,000 years
    vs
    Co2 and methane which tend to last 1-5 decades on average

    perflouromethane or Sulphur hexa flouride anyone?

    (wild guess du jour) It will be increased atmospheric water vapor(an extreemly potent greenhouse gas) that will trigger the accelerated melts and stepped sea level rises. (maybe, not just increased, but increased and redirected toward the ice caps)
    What (series of weather events?) will trigger the increased atmospheric water vapor, remains in question.

    if we ain't drifting into another glacial cycle, nature might give us 6 another meters(or so---40?)------how much will you add? do I hear 7?8?9?10?
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  14. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by sculptor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by merrychristmas View Post
    If people want developments to last a long time they got to consider that the sea level could rise significantly.
    If we just hit the avarages of the past 4 interglacials
    The sea level will rise.
    If then you add in possible consequences of enhanced greenhouse gasses
    especially the un mentioned ones
    here's 3 links to sites discussing the greenhouse gasses:

    Addressing Global Climate Change | Steady State Revolution
    PowerPedia:Greenhouse gases - PESWiki
    The main greenhouse gases | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Vital Climate Graphics

    some of these are up to 23000 times more potent than CO2
    and some may last in the atmosphere for 50,000 years
    vs
    Co2 and methane which tend to last 1-5 decades on average

    perflouromethane or Sulphur hexa flouride anyone?

    (wild guess du jour) It will be increased atmospheric water vapor(an extreemly potent greenhouse gas) that will trigger the accelerated melts and stepped sea level rises. (maybe, not just increased, but increased and redirected toward the ice caps)
    What (series of weather events?) will trigger the increased atmospheric water vapor, remains in question.

    if we ain't drifting into another glacial cycle, nature might give us 6 another meters(or so---40?)------how much will you add? do I hear 7?8?9?10?
    If CO2 happened to be as potent as any of the other greenhouse gases, with current concentrations, the earth would be a lot more like venus so we are lucky it is relatively weak. Global warming will cause a feedback effect. Less sea ice will lead to hiigher temperatures and higher water vapour. Further increases in temperatures will accelerate the evaporation process bringing even more water vapour in the atmosphere and thus faster rises in temperature. While some say that the point of no return has not been reached yet, I think we are already reaching it now. When we take into consideration the realistic estimation of when and how emissions could be reduced based on current progress, the point of no return for major changes in the Earth is imminent and inevitable. All that can be done is minimize the severity of the changes that lie ahead.
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    Co2 and methane which tend to last 1-5 decades on average
    Correct about methane. Atmospheric CO2, however, last centuries to thousands of years.
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  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    Co2 and methane which tend to last 1-5 decades on average
    Correct about methane. Atmospheric CO2, however, last centuries to thousands of years.
    I noticed that. I have read a lot lately about how CO2 lasts a very long time in the atmosphere. I think I even read it was one of those longer lasting greenhosue gases. The only way to make the elimination of CO2 emissionswork is the capture of carbon already released. Just like a large tub full of cold water, the atmosphere will probably heat gradually more over time and be a bit tardy in showing the full heating potential of current greenhouse gas emissions' potential to heat the earth. In other words it will keep heating up even if the emissions stay the same. The heating on the planet and the meting of the ice is exponential because along with that warm-up I mentioned, there is no end in sight for current emissions. Thermal expansion of the oceans is partly if not mostly responsible for the sea level rise.
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    I’m old enough to remember the pitchfork and torchlight horrors that tenured faculty faced if they dared for a nanosecond to question the looming horrors of “global cooling”. Only heretics (and Republicans) lived in denial. All the scientific models proved it was coming! Everybody knew that! For God’s sake people, get out your down-lined parkas and your flannel jammies! Do it now!!!

    Global warming? Follow the money...because there isn't any empirical science to follow.
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    Global warming? Follow the money...because there isn't any empirical science to follow.
    What money?

    afaik, the real money is where it always was.

    1 Exxon Mobil Oil and Gas
    2 Royal Dutch Shell Oil and Gas
    3
    Walmart
    Retail
    4 BP Oil and Gas
    5
    Vitol
    Commodities
    6 Sinopec Oil and Gas
    7 State Grid Corporation of China Electric utility
    8 Chevron Corporation Oil and Gas
    9 ConocoPhillips Oil and Gas
    10
    Samsung Electronics
    Electronics
    11 PetroChina Oil and Gas
    12 Total S.A. Oil and Gas
    13
    Japan Post Holdings
    Conglomerate
    14 Saudi Aramco Oil and Gas
    15
    Volkswagen Group
    Automotive
    16
    Glencore
    Commodities
    17 Gazprom Oil and Gas
    18
    General Motors
    Automotive
    19
    General Electric
    Conglomerate
    20 Petrobras Oil and Gas



    Of the top 20 corporations in the world, 12 are oil, gas or power companies.

    That's where the money is.
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    Oh, those evil oil companies. They're the ones who provide petrochemicals, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, right? Thus 90% of everything in life you need & use. If you no longer wish to patronize those evil capitalists, then go live in a cave, wear a dingo skin, eat roots and shrubs, and wipe your butt with dead leaves. Defiling the gazzoline givers. What would Mad Max have to say about that!
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    Quote Originally Posted by pogomutt View Post
    I’m old enough to remember the pitchfork and torchlight horrors that tenured faculty faced if they dared for a nanosecond to question the looming horrors of “global cooling”. Only heretics (and Republicans) lived in denial. All the scientific models proved it was coming! Everybody knew that! For God’s sake people, get out your down-lined parkas and your flannel jammies! Do it now!!!

    Global warming? Follow the money...because there isn't any empirical science to follow.
    If you old enough to remember "global cooling" then you should be old enough to know that it was a media hype that had basically no support from the actual climatology community. Global cooling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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    Back on topic. I'd say coastal home owners on Florida's trendy beaches have about 1000 times more to fret about over hurricanes and their run-up, than they do from the slow curve of ocean level rise. Do you think any of them really give a damn what those houses will look like 100 years from now? They can't get financing to build or buy those homes, and they can't get insurance either, but what they can do is reach in their pockets and write a check for $5 million bucks. I'm pretty sure they're the kind of people who live for the here and now, rather than bleeting about how the sky is going to fall 100 years from now.
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    They're the ones who provide petrochemicals, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, right? Thus 90% of everything in life you need & use.
    Not for much longer. I've got solar panels on the roof and my state gets a quarter of its power from wind already. I'm pretty sure I'll cope if all my clothing, linens and furniture had to come from natural products - that was how I grew up back in the fifties.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    If you old enough to remember "global cooling" then you should be old enough to know that it was a media hype that had basically no support from the actual climatology community. Global cooling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    You're citing Wikipedia? Why don't you put a dozen chicken bones in your hat, shake 'em up real good, then drop them out on the pavement. Now tell us what they say about global cooling...or global warming for that matter. I'd trust the empiracism gained from that exercise at least as much as I'd trust half the the crap posted on Wikipedia. Now let me cite a source worth citing. It's called "Nature Magazine". Ever heard of it? Probably not. Anyway, they published a piece a few weeks back debunking global warming hysteria. You can read it here:

    Orbital forcing of tree-ring data : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group
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    Anyway, they published a piece a few weeks back debunking global warming hysteria.
    Well. Not quite. Their conclusions hold reasonably well only if you think that near-polar proxies are the only ones to be considered. And that the only proxies worth considering are tree rings. And that you should ignore the different effects of orbital/insolation forcing on different parts of the globe.

    This item isn't only about the Esper paper, RealClimate: Tree Rings and Climate: Some Recent Developments but it does pull together some interesting stuff.

    There are a few rather interesting observations here. One is that the Moberg et al (2006) reconstruction, which–unlike all of the other reconstructions listed above–uses no tree-ring proxy data at all to estimate centennial and longer-timescale temperature variations, shows the smallest cooling trend of all. That is in contrast to Esper et al’s hypothesis that including tree-ring data leads to reduced long-term cooling trends.
    It's a longish piece. You do need to get familiar with the various papers cited if you weren't across the reconstruction literature before, so clicking through a lot of links. A bit of reading, a bit of frowning over which paper does and doesn't use which kinds of proxies until it's sorted out in the memory. But I think it's good value.
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    Not for much longer. I've got solar panels on the roof and my state gets a quarter of its power from wind already. I'm pretty sure I'll cope if all my clothing, linens and furniture had to come from natural products - that was how I grew up back in the fifties.
    Right. I run two wells on my property with solar setups (that also provide power for the lights in my shop and barn). Wind power is still economically unfeasible, even here (my neighbors across the highway named their ranch "Windy Point"; guess why.) Generally the only places you find people gaining the lion's share of their power needs from wind generators is where governments are robbing taxpayers to foot the bill. It still costs about $2 for even the giant windmills to produce $1 worth of electricity. As for your nostalgia, try and remember all the maladies back in the 50s that could make your life very miserable without the benefit of synthetic drugs, prosthesis, and a thousand other petrochemical-based necessities we enjoy today. My father was a petroleum geophysicist for Phillips Petroleum Company, the world's largest producer and inventor of petrochemicals. He drummed into his kids all our young lives that petroleum was far too valuable to be burned up inside vehicle engines. "There's only so much" he'd say, "and when the world starts running dry of petrochemicals, there'll be a sad price to pay". I'm sure he was right. Humanity always seems to learn everything the hard way.
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    Couldn't agree with your father more.

    One of my principal objections to the 'dig stuff up and burn it' approach to fuels is that this stuff is far too valuable to burn. (Most things in the world are too valuable to burn.) If we only consider the advances in carbon fibre technology of the last decade or so, we could be burning our great grandchildren's chance for truly important advanced materials - all for the sake of running inefficient motors doing an inefficient job of transporting people and goods around.
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    Quote Originally Posted by pogomutt View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paleoichneum View Post
    If you old enough to remember "global cooling" then you should be old enough to know that it was a media hype that had basically no support from the actual climatology community. Global cooling - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    You're citing Wikipedia? Why don't you put a dozen chicken bones in your hat, shake 'em up real good, then drop them out on the pavement. Now tell us what they say about global cooling...or global warming for that matter. I'd trust the empiricism gained from that exercise at least as much as I'd trust half the the crap posted on Wikipedia.
    Its a starting point for reading on the subject, and its rather clear you have not had any experience with the website if your going to equate it to fortune telling. Did you bother to look at he page or the 44 references, 3 further reading links, and 8 external links used in the article?
    Last edited by Paleoichneum; October 22nd, 2012 at 03:07 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by pogomutt View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    Not for much longer. I've got solar panels on the roof and my state gets a quarter of its power from wind already. I'm pretty sure I'll cope if all my clothing, linens and furniture had to come from natural products - that was how I grew up back in the fifties.
    Right. I run two wells on my property with solar setups (that also provide power for the lights in my shop and barn). Wind power is still economically unfeasible, even here (my neighbors across the highway named their ranch "Windy Point"; guess why.) Generally the only places you find people gaining the lion's share of their power needs from wind generators is where governments are robbing taxpayers to foot the bill. It still costs about $2 for even the giant windmills to produce $1 worth of electricity. As for your nostalgia, try and remember all the maladies back in the 50s that could make your life very miserable without the benefit of synthetic drugs, prosthesis, and a thousand other petrochemical-based necessities we enjoy today. My father was a petroleum geophysicist for Phillips Petroleum Company, the world's largest producer and inventor of petrochemicals. He drummed into his kids all our young lives that petroleum was far too valuable to be burned up inside vehicle engines. "There's only so much" he'd say, "and when the world starts running dry of petrochemicals, there'll be a sad price to pay". I'm sure he was right. Humanity always seems to learn everything the hard way.
    If we only used petro for that kind of stuff there would be hardy any emissions at all. Using petro for those necessities you mentioned would produce stuff with it, not burn billions of tons of it into the atmosphere every day so if we only used it for that, we would not run out for millions of years and it would not contribute to global warming so much.
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    They're the ones who provide petrochemicals, gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas, right? Thus 90% of everything in life you need & use.
    Not for much longer. I've got solar panels on the roof and my state gets a quarter of its power from wind already. I'm pretty sure I'll cope if all my clothing, linens and furniture had to come from natural products - that was how I grew up back in the fifties.
    That's great you got solar panelss and the reality is, those companies will eventually have all the business stolen from them when everyone else also switches to soler. Nothing that currently significantly contributes to greenhouse gases has to do so. I read that solar power will become as cheap as regular power in a couple decades so the switch to solar should be fast. The days for oil and gas companies are numbered. I wonder which companies will be the big ones when the oil and gas companies get wiped out by green energy. I think that for the time time being, since they are where the money is in the world, their power is what is holding the world back from switching to green power. Bogus advertising about global warming's inexistance is just part of how they must be powerful enough to hold back green energy though at some point they should lose the battle because those that are rich from oil and gas are a very small number compared to the rest of the world.
    Walking every street of Toronto to raise awareness of global warming http://www.whatscoolerthancool.org/
    Petitioning world leaders and governments to take more effective action on climate change http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/...l-warming.html
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  30. #29  
    Forum Freshman efbjr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by merrychristmas View Post
    If you know anyone with property at sea level in south florida, beware climate change! A large percentage of the multimillion dollar houses and properties in south florida will be wiped out by sea level rise due to global warming. "Under current projections, the Atlantic Ocean would swallow much of the Florida Keys in 100 years. Miami-Dade, in turn, would eventually replace them as a chain of islands on the highest parts of the coastal limestone ridge, bordered by the ocean on one side and an Everglades turned into a saltwater bay on the other." these 2 articles explain further:
    Florida Keys gone in 100 years? - KeysNet.com
    Election 2012 climate change: Presidential candidates must take a stand on climate change - OrlandoSentinel.com

    Great opportunity for Sea World to expand. What will happen to Disney World?
    "Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati"
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  31. #30  
    Forum Radioactive Isotope sculptor's Avatar
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    snorkels and gondolas?
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  32. #31  
    Forum Freshman efbjr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sculptor View Post
    snorkels and gondolas?
    ...with the little mouse ears printed all over them!
    "Quando Omni Flunkus Moritati"
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  33. #32  
    Santaronto
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    Quote Originally Posted by efbjr View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by merrychristmas View Post
    If you know anyone with property at sea level in south florida, beware climate change! A large percentage of the multimillion dollar houses and properties in south florida will be wiped out by sea level rise due to global warming. "Under current projections, the Atlantic Ocean would swallow much of the Florida Keys in 100 years. Miami-Dade, in turn, would eventually replace them as a chain of islands on the highest parts of the coastal limestone ridge, bordered by the ocean on one side and an Everglades turned into a saltwater bay on the other." these 2 articles explain further:
    Florida Keys gone in 100 years? - KeysNet.com
    Election 2012 climate change: Presidential candidates must take a stand on climate change - OrlandoSentinel.com

    Great opportunity for Sea World to expand. What will happen to Disney World?
    It will turn it into another Sea world! Central park will become the largest urban flooded forest in the world.
    Walking every street of Toronto to raise awareness of global warming http://www.whatscoolerthancool.org/
    Petitioning world leaders and governments to take more effective action on climate change http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/...l-warming.html
    Reply With Quote  
     

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