Thread: Volcanic Eruptions Cause Global Cooling: Man Made Pollution Has a Very Small Effect

Volcanic Eruptions Cause Global Cooling: Man Made Pollution Has a Very Small Effect


Global temperatures over time are dependent on major volcanic eruptions and not on man made pollution as the global warming crowd claims. Volcanic eruptions have caused some heating, but the main effects have been global cooling.

There are many examples of global cooling, some of which are described in the following paragraphs. (Reference 1,2) Approximately 74,000 years ago there was an eruption of a volcano in Java named Toba. This eruption is described by volcanists as “Humongous.” The eruption killed almost all humans on earth at that time. This is not a theory but is well established by scientific data from different sources. They include geologists, geneticists, anthropologists, and others. (Reference 1,2)

We are a single species which we all are descended from and survived in east Africa. From there this migration has been traced first east, then north and east, and later west. Recently Science Daily, (May 10, 2007, reference 3) reports that new research DNA data shows that the Australian Aborigine people came from the same genetic background as the people who migrated out of east Africa. The same is true for the people of New Guinea.

The estimated eruption volume of the Toba eruption is fourteen cubic miles. This is based on evidence from a large number of sources. It is enormous compared to the pollution that the global warming crowd claims is doing so much damage. There is evidence that there were a number of years of global cooling with freezing or near freezing temperatures along the equator with lower temperatures at higher latitudes (Reference 1).

A number of volcanic eruptions have been related to global cooling. The Tambora eruption in Java in 1815 is an example of this. The year following this eruption was known as the year without a summer. In the United States’ Northeast there were snow storms and frost in June, July and August. Many people lost their lives in Java, perhaps as many as 10,000 directly and many more indirectly (Reference 1 pages 68 – 70).

Volcanic eruptions started in Iceland in 1783, continuing until 1784. These eruptions were along a line, approximately twenty-seven kilometers long. More than twenty-five percent of the population died from volcanic ash, poison gas and starvation.

Benjamin Franklin, at the time, represented the United States in France. He speculated that the eye stinging haze and cold winters of 1783 – 1784 were the result of the Iceland volcanoes. North America winters were especially cold to the extent that the Mississippi river froze at New Orleans. Ice cores from Greenland contained significant concentrations of sulfuric acid for the years of 1783 – 1784. Sulfuric acid is one gas contained in the eruption gases.

On April 5, 1815 the volcano Tambora in Indonesia erupted. This was the largest eruption in the last 10,000 years. An estimated thirty-six cubic miles of ash and pumice were ejected. In New England, 1816 was called “The year without summer.” In June 1816 the average temperature was seven degrees Fahrenheit below the preceding years for the entire period from 1780 to 1968.

In 1883 the island of Krakatau erupted causing a loss of life of 36,417 official recorded deaths to an estimated 120,000. The average global temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 degrees Celsius with unstable temperatures until 1888 (Reference 4).

It is very difficult to separate war, politics, and climate. Washington crossing the Delaware in December of 1776 encountered very cold weather with snow on the ground and below freezing conditions. This is evidence of a volcanic eruption somewhere on earth. There were volcanic eruptions in the Wudalianchi Field in Northeast China that took place in 1776. This may have caused the bad weather Washington encountered. In any case Washington’s victory appears to be greatly due to his crossing the Delaware under very difficult conditions (Reference 6). Currently we are experiencing much loss of liberty and freedom as a result of high taxes and more government regulations which are completely uncalled for.

More than 2,000 years ago the eruption of Mount Etna probably caused colder temperatures in Italy and led to famine in Rome and Egypt. Starting around 535 AD and continuing into 540 AD, there is evidence of extremely short summers and periods of extreme cold. This has been attributed to the eruption of Mount Tambora on the island of Sumbawa in Indonesia (Reference 1, pages 68 – 91).

Around 1630 BC Greek Island of Thera erupted and apparently caused the beginning of the end of the Minoan Civilization. Radio and carbon data indicated cold weather in the northern hemisphere including China. Tree ring data from various parts of the world set the time at 1628 BC. Recent studies indicate that the eruptions injected an estimated fifteen cubic miles of earth. The plume reached a height of eighteen to twenty-one miles (Reference 1).

Climate cooling in the northern hemisphere as indicated by the tree rings, from many locations, frost in July as reported from China, heavy rain in Egypt. There is even evidence that the myth of Atlantis actually occurred and was caused by the Thera Eruption, (Reference 6).

On March 17, 1963 the volcano Agung on Bali erupted explosively. The gases reached the stratosphere and the troposphere fell about eleven degrees Fahrenheit. The temperature in the northern hemisphere fell slightly. At the end of March and beginning of April, 1982, the Volcano El Chichon in southeast Mexico exploded vertically. There was a slight lowering of the temperature in the northern hemisphere of several tenths of a degree Fahrenheit.

There are a number of factors that appear to influence the climate both local and global. The size of the eruptions is perhaps the most profound on the global climate. The humongous eruption of Toba around 74,000 years ago wiped out almost all humans on earth. It is the largest in the last 100,000 years.

Volcanic eruptions occur somewhere on earth almost continuously (Reference 7). The larger ones contribute to global cooling. The smaller ones are not well understood but some appear to contribute to global cooling. This needs to be explored with honest research based on good data and not on computer models based of false assumptions. Computer models are valuable in research as long as the input data are well founded and the limitations are recognized.

Research to date has yielded much information on the details of the effects, however much more remains to be discovered. Small eruptions may cool the troposphere with only an insignificant cooling globally. Some eruptions cause short term heating and larger long term cooling; an example being the Iceland eruption of 1873 – 1874. The composition of the gases erupted makes a difference. The amount of sulfur dioxide is also important; the larger amount resulting in the larger global cooling. The direction of the eruption is significant. If it is mostly vertical the more likely it will spread globally as compared to lateral eruptions.

Governments and politicians can make a critical difference on the lives lost. The Mount Pelee eruption is perhaps the most misguided case. Authorities claim the volcano was extinct up to the last. Many thousands lost their lives needlessly (Reference 2, page 203). In the Iceland eruption of 1883 – 1884 the magma was stopped before it was able to destroy a much needed harbor by a major effort of water cooling (Reference 2, page 136).

Is a current global warming crowd giving us bad advice? Bad advice was given to the residence of Mount Pelee before the eruption causing the needless loss of life. In other words, are we going in the wrong direction mainly out of ignorance?

There is much scientific data that supports the out of Africa human migration after the Toba eruption. A study of the human mitochondrial DNA indicated that the human population was reduced to as few as 5,000 people between 70,000 and 80,000 years ago. This fits exactly with the people in nearby New Guinea.
Now we have a complete picture, the Toba eruption reducing the human population to only a few thousand. They were all located in east Africa. From there they repopulated the earth. Their migration has been followed first east, then north, and then east and west.

The global warming crowd claim man is to blame and if not corrected will do much damage to the climate. Al Gore has become rich and famous as a leader. Obama has obtained perhaps the world’s greatest political power and at the same time has done enormous damage to the United States and world economy (Reference 10, 11, 12). Global warming has a great appeal in that they are saving mother earth. It turns out over the long term mother earth is not kind and gentle. When it comes to volcanic eruptions she can be mean and vicious. It is time this is recognized.

Currently it appears there is little that can be done before another Toba type eruption. Given time it may be possible to predict such an event and a much greater percentage of people could survive. Fortunately, such an eruption appears unlikely for thousands of years in the future.

There is much that can be done for smaller eruptions. A great amount of research needs to be done with the objective of predicting the location, size, and nature of future eruptions. The result of this work should be used to determine what measure can be used to reduce the loss of life and property damage.

Obama appears to believe that the wealth of the United States built up over the years was at the cost of the poor foreign nations. His stated objective is to reduce the standard of living of the middle income American. Most Americans do not believe this is true and American wealth was built up by private enterprise and individual freedom (Reference 8).

Higher taxes, and more government regulation, which is what the Obama administration has been imposing, is going the wrong way. More and more regulation dictated from Washington which appears to have no regard to the economic impact which results in making Middle Americans poor. Middle Americans produce most of the new jobs. The thought of higher taxes and more regulations makes planning for the future difficult.

The population can be divided into two parts, consumers and producers. The entire populations are consumers. The producers are a smaller part. An economic system that encourages producers is much more likely to prosper than ones that do not. As F.A. Hayck pointed out (Reference 9) historically the free enterprise system has proven to be more productive than planned systems, such as socialist, dictatorships, communist, etc.

Obama seems to be working hard to turn the United States economy into a third words economy. His weapon has been the myth of global warming. As pointed out in the preceding paragraphs, global climate is determined almost entirely by volcanic eruptions and is not man made. Obama played global warming propaganda for much more than it is worth. Eventually he wants to be a dictator, where the subjects have very little freedom and are almost all very poor. Printing money is one way Obama administration is working to destroy the economy. Restriction banks from lending money is another.

Al Gore (Reference 13) appears to be another want to-be dictator that would subject the United States to a planned economy based on the global warming myth. Again this is likely to result in the loss of much personal freedom and great damage to the economy.

The United States economy is far from being a free enterprise system. However, if the effects of volcanic eruptions on global temperatures are properly accounted for, it would be a major step forward. The effects of man made pollution on global climates are similar to the tail wagging the dog. In this case it is a very small tail wagging of a very large dog.


References

• Savino, John, and Jones, Marie D. “Super Volcano, The Catastrophi Event that Changes the Course of Human History.” The Career Press, Inc, 2007.

• Zeilingade Boer, Jelle, and Sauders, Donald Theodore. “Volcanoes in Human History” Princeton University Press, 2007.

• Science Daily, May 10, 2007.

• Krakatoa – Wikipedia, Free Encyclopedia 10/29/2011.

• Fischer, David Hackett, “Washington’s Crossing” Oxford University Press, 2004.

• “Minoan Eruption” – Wikipedia, Free Encyclopedia.

• “Kraktoa” – Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.

• Smithsonian / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report.

• Hayek, Friedrich A. “The Road to Serfdom” Special Abridged Edition, The Heritage Foundation, University of Chicago Press, 1994.

• Horner, Christopher C. “Power Grab” Regnery Publishing, Inc, 2010.

• Milloy, Steve. “Green Hell” Regnery Publishing, Inc, 2008.

• Horner, Christopher C. “Red Hot Lies” Regnery Publishing, Inc, 2008.

• Gore, Al. “An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It.” Rodale, 2006.

John Cooper Martin worked as a research engineer for thirty-five years. Investigations include earthquakes, volcanoes, earth stresses, soil mechanics, land subsidence, hydraulic fracturing, geothermal power, oil field performance and economics, exterior ballistics, supersonic flow, etc. The results were used to guide company or government policies. Some results were published in technical papers or used to initiate research projects at government laboratories or universities.

Global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2, not pollution. Our CO2 production vastly outstrips that of volcanoes. What use are your two enormous posts now?

I note that you have not really quantified the effect of volcanoes nor the amount or types of ejecta that are responsible for these effects. All you have are a few historical anecdotes. You haven't demonstrated that volcanic activity has increased or decreased significantly in the last century. Presumably, as you claim they cause "cooling", we must have significantly fewer volcanoes now to account for the increasing global temperatures?

Also, nearly all your references are to popular media sources; none are to peer-reviewed papers in the relevant subjects.

Finally, a large part of your thesis appears to be a political rant.

Given all that, I don't think I can take this seriously as a scientific hypothesis.

I'm not quite clear what your hypothesis is John. Perhaps you would summarise it in a sentence or two. You argue that volcanic eruptions may cause cooling. That is logical and I believe is supported by several lines of evidence. You note the possibility that the bottleneck in human evolution (I think reasonably well established by genetics) was possibly caused by the eruption of Toba. This is plausible, though I am not cure it is proven.

Should we be paying more attention as a species to the possibility of global catastrophe brought on by vulcanism? Perhaps. We have certainly begun to grasp the nettle in relation to asteroidal impact. There is much research into predicting eruptions. Is further investment necessary. I would want to see more facts in order to judge.

What I am not clear of is how these interesting observations about vulcanism and human evolution have any bearing on anthropogenic global warming. Perhaps you would clarify that also.

We can't control volcanic eruptions and we can't control asteroidal impacts and it is foolish to think that we can. We can control AGW simply because it is a healthy way to live with reduction in air polution, reduction of environmental destruction, and so on.

Originally Posted by Barbi

We can't control volcanic eruptions and we can't control asteroidal impacts and it is foolish to think that we can. We can control AGW simply because it is a healthy way to live with reduction in air polution, reduction of environmental destruction, and so on.

I would have to strongly disagree. While we do not currently have the technology and are not even sure which technology we should need we are well on our way to being able to avoid catastrophic impacts in the future. Our cataloguing of potential threats is progressing steadily. There are ongoing nvestigations into ways of deflecting threats. This is a problem that is receiving some unusually long term thinking.

Yes, John G is correct regarding asteroid impacts. We could, within a decade or two, develop the technology to prevent a future asteroid impact, given enough warning time. And fortunately, none of the 8400 near earth asteroids we've found so far are an immediate threat. One can only hope that we take the risk seriously enough so that when an asteroid with our name on it does come up, we have developed the plan and technology enough, and have enough time to prevent it. Of higher risk from space are long period comets, which can come from any direction, with pretty much insuffincient warning time for preventive action to be taken.

Originally Posted by MeteorWayne

Of higher risk from space are long period comets, which can come from any direction, with pretty much insuffincient warning time for preventive action to be taken.

Absolutely correct, which is why I specifiee asteroidal impacts in my original post, rather than a more general reference to bolides. The comets could come at us 'out of the sun' like any good fighter pilot and give us a solid pasting with zero practical warning time. Even with a reasonably long warning there is not a lot we could do except panic. (see Niven and Pournelle's Lucifer's Hammer.)

The Toba eruption lead to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide of around 20 ppm at most.



Anthropogenic carbon dioxide accounts for an increase of around 90 ppm.

But you don't even specify which kind of volcanic eruptions are important. The rare, gigantic ones of course have huge impacts, sometimes for many years, but the ones we're most likely to see are not like that. The most immediate effect is cooling for a year or two, but only if the volcano is near the equator and the eruption is large enough to loft the dust and other junk into the stratosphere where it can't precipitate out quickly as other aerosols do with water vapour.

Looking at the recent temperature trends, File:Global Temperature Anomaly 1880-2010 (Fig.A).gif - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia you can see the effect of the Mt Pinatubo eruption quite clearly - the black annual markers (not the running mean). The eruption was mid 1991, the temperature plummeted in 92.

How the well-known cooling effect of individual volcanic eruptions is supposed to relate in any way to the current, continuing warming trend I cannot imagine.