Notices
Results 1 to 27 of 27

Thread: Bird Flu

  1. #1 Bird Flu 
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    what do you guys think? in general....*disscussion* about it? will you cower.. or go out.. and face it? do you think it willl mutate?

    personaly i think its only a matter of time... but then again.. its been around a long time.. in countrys that.. to be mean... has a lot of flu? no? is there a reason why its not mutating there? culd there be a imunity already?
    just thinking out loud dearest!

    now... jsut in case i hav ea plan of action.....for my gov.
    in order to stop the dreaded diseas... we need to
    1. stop birds coming here!
    2. stop, tourists/busssness/natives coming back in!

    i propose::
    1. spread word among the birds that we have it.. they wont come if they are going to catch the flu no?
    2. press release stating we have it .. and we have it full. so that wil stop 1/2 coming to ireland! (the other half are old americians returning! or touring irl! i'll get to Those in a minute!) and when they come to test it.. we will offer them tax incentives unlike any you have seen before! (thats what we do best no? look it up!)
    3. For the americian tourists... tell the world we have the patatoe blight again! The Americain gov. will be so scared that we will take the country by storm again! emmigrition! and all... so tey will blocade us.. thus blocking emselfs in???

    no? my plan willl work! :P mad.. fun.. crazy humor to a serios topic!

    so .. what are your thoughts on bird flu? pandemic? or myth?


    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2.  
     

  3. #2  
    Forum Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    177
    Avian flu is still very much in the 'hype stage'. Three or four distinct mutations are required before it becomes highly human-to-human contagious. And if it does mutate to achieve this, the flu may well be less dangerous.

    Until then, expect to hear lots of press hype.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #3  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    Be afraid; be very afraid.

    Actually, I am concerned about the avian flu. If I am not mistaken, it shares certain characteristics with the 1918 flu that caused it to have the highest mortality among the healthiest.

    My biggest concern is the dismissal of the threat [that has had scientists and epidemioligists concerned for years] as hype. People keep likening it to the Y2K computer code issue; well, companies spent billions working to avert that problem.
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #4  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    exactly!
    britian has promised vacines to every citizen. problem.. no vacine is yet avaible! is that good or bad,

    personaly i think its great, casue it means it hasn mutated,
    but very bad, becasue its getiing closer and closer and when it hits it will hit hard
    :P
    they say general cleanly ness is the best way to fight it, along with manys a bottle o f alcohol soap!

    its very simelear to the spanish flu, except i hope because there is no war it won't be as bad, but then.. the amount of travling has almost .... become existant since those days!

    damm
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #5  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    General cleanliness will not help if the virus mutates and some-one sneezes in your face.

    A healthy immune system will not help; it could but you at higher risk for this flu.

    If a vaccine is developed quickly, it will be brought to market with higher than average side effects.

    Government health agencies should be working on a vaccine now; they should be working on contingency plans a bit more sophisticated and palatable the promise to send the army in to enforce quarrentines [the spelling of which I am too upset to get straight right now].

    Two quick ideas? Create legislation similiar to the Soldier's and Sailor's Relief Act for disaster victims, and promote individual disaster 'preparedness' [what an ugly word].

    Bottled water and an alternative waste disposal option
    Dried and canned food
    Candles [or those cool flashlights you shake for light]
    Crank radios [batteries die]
    MASKS!
    And several good books.
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #6  
    Forum Radioactive Isotope cosmictraveler's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Key West, Florida, Earth
    Posts
    4,788
    So far it isn't spread from humans to humans. They have made a vaccine for it alreay in case it does become human to human. There's little to worry about at this stage only how much fear that the media can spew forth.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #7  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    There is little to worry about if there are plans in place to prevent disaster from turning into catastrophe. I'd like to think that my government had plans a bit more detailed than
    quarantines enforced by the military.

    Vaccines take a long time to produce [I haven't found any details on that], and it occurs to me that since the virus I am worried about doesn't exist yet [the mutation that allows human-to-human contagion hasn't occured yet], can we be certain that the existing vaccine will be effective? I really don't know.

    So I am going to get my standard flu shot, get some masks from work, stock up on water and candles and non-perishable food items [such as cocoa powder, sugar, canned milk, and rum], and check out and clean all my camping gear. Oh, and review all our insurance policies [you should do that once a year, too.]

    In short, I am going to do all the things I should to at the start of every winter, the same things you probably do at the start of the hurricane season. I'm just going to stock up on masks, too.
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #8  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    media suck!

    ok ,question , how can they make a vacine to a virus that dosen't exist yet? caue they don't know te exact strain do thay?

    i understand how the imune system works , the way if you are too clean your more at risk from common things, like, and also the too much anti-stuff,

    but surly cleanly ness is a good way to fight a flu? i see now how my point makes no sense,

    :wink:
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #9  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    Quote Originally Posted by goodgod3rd
    media suck!
    Ok, GG3, I am calling you on this one; if you are sufficiently well-educated to use the plural form of the verb with 'media', why is your spelling and punctuation so bad? It does imply that you do not think other posters worthy of your efforts.

    Quote Originally Posted by goodgod3rd
    ok ,question , how can they make a vacine to a virus that dosen't exist yet? caue they don't know te exact strain do thay?

    i understand how the imune system works , the way if you are too clean your more at risk from common things, like, and also the too much anti-stuff,

    but surly cleanly ness is a good way to fight a flu? i see now how my point makes no sense,

    :wink:
    Nothing has improved lifespan more than clean water and good hygiene; vaccines and anti-biotics don't even come close. [That is going to be a very complicated claim to defend, so if you call me on it, I will be awhile assembling the defense].

    The virus mode of transmission might not effect the mode of infection, so when the virus mutates to allow human-to-human transmission, vaccines for the pre-mutation form might still prevent infection. BUT I just don't know; we need a virologist in here.

    And I still maintain that the only thing the press has done wrong is ignore this issue for the past three years [and sleeze out of their science requirements with 'Metereology for Dummies' courses, leaving them incapable of reporting on any subject involving science.]
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #10  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    14,168
    J, I am puzzled by your posts in this thread. I read a great passion and an even greater anger in them, but I can't quite figure out where that anger is directed.

    You seem to be pissed off with the press - well that could be the subject for an entire other thread, or threads: the press is a reactive instititution. It has no obligation to focus on an particular issue. Rightly or wrongly its responsibility is to sell newspapers and enhance shareholder value.

    You seem upset with the government, without making exactly clear which government, or justifying your critique of their unpreparedness.

    There also seems to be, I hope I am misreading it, a sense of personal panic. My health is sufficiently flaky that if the virus does mutate to permit human to human transmission I suspect I shall be one of the statistics. I don't see this as justification for a major life style change in advance. It certainly didn't stop me going to Vietnam when bird flu first hit that country.

    So, in short, I am confused as to what exactly your position is on all this. It's probably because you are mainly responding to specific points from GG3. However, if you could summarise your position, it would help my understanding.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #11  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    i have told people before to try anad make out my grammer and spelling. i always try to fix ect if i notice it, but im sad to say, i do type too fast when i posting, mainly becasue i cannot afford a hig phone bill, so i rush, and that makes my mistakes bad. then becasue my time is limited i cannot sufficiently correct myself. (it dosent help that i am on a 44 kps dial up!)

    i don't like you suggesting that becasue i know the media thing, that i shoul dkno wevery single spelling/proper term in the angle-irish-american-Miselionaicous- language!!! and i regret further that you felt that because i did do somthing right that i have more respect to that person/post. not true. i respect everyone here. except one or too.... exceptions.

    now. i m also confused by your post. you say cleanlyness has improved life more than drugs, i agree.

    vacines are diferent, viruses are too. cleanlyness can't really help against meniginitis as prevention but a vacine can...



    The virus mode of transmission might not effect the mode of infection, so when the virus mutates to allow human-to-human transmission, vaccines for the pre-mutation form might still prevent infection.
    the pre mutation vacine will help fight the virus if it stays very simelar to the origional- as would the flu vacine if it mutates with the current flu and keps the current state! But its not a dead cert.

    And even then.. we will still be carriers of the avian flu, and our body will bulid up a defence, but what about somone who hasn't got the vacine!

    one possibility is that it could mutate into a flu thats almost teh same as our own... and in turn become less harmful. in truth we jsut don't know if the current vacine will be of any use!!!

    indeed we do need a virus expert!

    media suck!
    that was just to support the views how they are causeing a hype of panic!
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #12  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    GG3, I have had internet cable for so long I have forgotten what dial-up is like; thank you for reminding me. I will remember that not everyone has the time to spell-check.

    A coherent position? You guys don't ask for much, do you?

    I have been concerned about the avian flu for years now; not worried, but concerned. [I expect to start worrying soon.] There has been no general awareness of the threat, how pandemics occur, why pandemics occur, the economic and social consequences of a pandemic, or what practical steps can be taken to minimize the risk of an outbreak.

    I believe the knowledge and resources exist to prevent or greatly mitigate the next pandemic [whether or not it is avian flu], but the necessary steps will not be taken because of ignorance and inertia.

    Finally, finally, avain flu and pandemics hit the popular press. What happens? The president of my country announces he will use the military to enforce wide-spread quarantines if necessary [that's a plan?], people start calling the story 'hype' almost immediately, and the press cannot explain why this is not hype because most of them do not know the difference between virus and bacteria.

    Panic? No, but I'm completely befuddled but this type of mass anti-hysteria. There is a possibility, edging into a probability, that something very bad is going to happen, and no-one is paying attention. This is just weird.
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #13  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    thats better,
    true i only started worrying when the media started talking about it last febuary here, then it dissapared a bit.... and came back...

    the how? the virus mutates form a previous example, we just don't notice it becasue it dose so slowly in steps, one step at a time. then when it reaches a point, it gets dangerous. i don't think there is any way to predict it. ... and then the why...

    why? because its genitic code is different, we can't defend against the new strain. so it spreads worlwide, and immediatly we are swamped.

    ecc and social cons? well ecconomicly we need trad/transprot/goods to be bought. if people stop leaving there house, they won't be out shopping for new sneakers... we will probably by in bulk. food shortages may occur. peopel will fear each other.ect ect.

    steps to be taken? well i suppose restrictions on travel would be the safest thing at the moment. but travel is neccary. and we also need travel to surive ecconomicly. so goverments are reluctant to do that!
    research is being done to fid a cure. they are actually making the thing mutate to get a potentil vacine i think, and there are many other simelar steps possible!!

    I believe the knowledge and resources exist to prevent or greatly mitigate the next pandemic [whether or not it is avian flu], but the necessary steps will not be taken because of ignorance and inertia.
    but pandemics are natural. they are natural accurances.. so we cant stop them really..... anything we do will only buffer it. and prolong it. and in doing that... possiblely make it worse!

    the media is not helping your right! and if your president thinks he can stop it like that... he's wrong. it will still get out! it is hype in a way because its there, in our face. and its sort of true what they are saying. but they are all saying " what are we doing to fight it???" ect. they don't understand it is going to happen.... no matter what!

    There is a possibility, edging into a probability, that something very bad is going to happen, and no-one is paying attention. This is just weird.
    right. but "on-one is paying attention"? they are, else the media wouln't be making all these storys!

    now as it happens, there have been no reports in the past week, or less. so thats why i am not listening to news media as such.

    im not sure where im going with any of this... thast just my interpetation of your post. :?
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #14  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    14,168
    Quote Originally Posted by j
    Panic? No, but I'm completely befuddled but this type of mass anti-hysteria. There is a possibility, edging into a probability, that something very bad is going to happen, and no-one is paying attention. This is just weird.
    Complacency is Nature's way of applying Natural Selection to the chronically overconfident.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #15  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    I'm really not advocating mass-hysteria; and I understand that there is little that individuals can do, and what we can do, we should already be doing once a year. [Except the masks; the masks are not part of one's typical disaster prepareness protocol; that's why I emphasized them.]

    I think what concerns me is that most people do not have the education and information to evaluate news with any scientific content. My well-educated and intelligent friends with advanced degrees do not know how to evaluate the news reports; this is troubling.

    As for the economic implications:
    I work in manufacturing; Lean Manufacturing is widely practiced, and an element of this is Just In Time Ordering. This is a very good idea if practiced correctly; however, if a company's supply of raw material is interrupted, production will stop.

    As an example, recently my company had to shut down production on a certain product line because one of our suppliers lost one of their suppliers, because the raw materials typically were shipped into the Gulf of Mexico. We could not find a new supplier, because most of them received their materials from the same raw material suppliers, most of whom shipped through the Gulf.

    Just imagine a five percent reduction in the work force across all levels of the economy, including health and safety workers. This will not translate instantly to a five percent reduction throughout the economic web. For example, during an epidemic, demand for our product will increase, but we will probably produce less. I work in a five person department; if I am one of the five percent who gets sick, product shipment could decrease by 20 %, because we have no cushion in my department. [Actually, we are all working overtime now, so that when one of us gets sick this Winter, we will be about a week ahead. This is not Lean Manufacturing.]
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #16  
    Forum Isotope (In)Sanity's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Mesa AZ
    Posts
    2,699
    My well-educated and intelligent friends with advanced degrees do not know how to evaluate the news reports; this is troubling.
    Intelligence is not always in the form of knowledge.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #17  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    well i know my family aient worrying or mass hysteria in about it... past the 6 o clock news,

    and they don't have any degrees yet. but they understand it...

    was the production line an example of how one thing can casue a chain reaction? or an example of how we cna produce the vacine and is good practise to do so?

    or both,

    rereading it, i think its both,

    as individuals we cant do much.

    can anyone tell me what the gov, should be doing?
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #18  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    That was intended as an example of how finely balanced the production network is; the production model most commonly used assumes an uninterrupted on-demand supply of raw materials. Even if one knows a material might be in short supply soon, one can not stock up on it, because companies don't maintain warehouse space. Just in time ordering makes a lot of sense, but only when everything is going right.

    The problem with vaccine production is that it takes a really long time, and which vaccine to produce for any given season is really just a guess.

    But I will not be worrying about Avian Flu for a while, because I am in a bloody panic about losing my mortgage interest deduction on my Federal Taxes. [Which is probably why the idea is being touted, to distract people from real problems; there is no way even this administration, and I use the term very loosely, would eliminate the mortgage interest deduction.]
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #19  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    14,168
    Quote Originally Posted by j
    ......... there is no way even this administration, and I use the term very loosely, ........
    I suppose loose administrations are like loose bowels: you get **** everywhere.

    Damn! Did I say that out loud?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #20  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    you did
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #21  
    Forum Freshman Yevaud's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Posts
    87
    Hey, what do you want? Career politicians are like Monkeys in a Zoo. Don't be surprised if all they do is sit around, and pander for Bananas all day...

    :-D
    *Welcome, my friends, to the show that never ends*
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #22  
    Forum Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    130
    The problems are these, the health authorities are NOT able to state a single, relable probability that Avian flu will mutate to a kind, 1, able to infect humans easily, 2, readily transmissible among humans, and 3, species specific.

    As they cannot state a probability, thus they cannot state that something is likely or unlikely. To believe that something is possible, is not a scientific statement of its occurrence rate. It's possible accoding to QM that the football from the 1950 Rosebowl will spontaneously appear in myfliving room. But it's unlikely as heck.

    Pointing out This avoids the problem of "chicken little". And irrational fear mongering. One sees the same kind of nonsense among too many of the 'global warming is human caused' group.

    Several mutations of a highly specific kind need to take place within Avian flu, which is uniquely designed to infect birds, rather than humans. We have no evidence that confirms that this has EVER occurred before & will occur soon (within the decade).

    This is called the species barrier and characteristic of most viruses, which must be able to attack cells as well as hijack their genetic machinery to reproduce viable virions.

    That's a very, very hard thing to do.

    The point being, the press makes money from getting people's attention. Their viewership and circulation depends upon that. Their ads money depends on it, directly and plainly. The very existence of 'tabloid' and 'yellow' journalisms show how prevalent these practices of irresponsible journalism are.

    Thus, the press hype and comments, very truly regarding the same. It's sensationalism, and we've seen it all before, with Kahoutek, false TV programs about human foot prints being found among dinosaurian, and a wearisome number of other, as pointed out reliably and repeatedly and in an ongoing fashion in the skeptical, astronomical(BadAstronomy) and other reporting organizations.

    And if and until these 'authorities' can give us a significant, scientifically based, REAL figure, that avian flu is going to create an human pandemic, from carefully done science, NOT just suppositions, then most of us are going to ignore it.

    About 60 people worldwide, have died of avian flu. IN the US alone each year, we lose about 30,000. That's 500 times the total human death rate compared to bird flu. IN the UK, the figures are probably proportionately similar. Worldwide, then at least 500-1000K die from the flu. NOT 60 people! This is a gross disparity between claims of danger and actual dangers.

    We are concerned about usual human influenzas, therefore, NOT the avian variety.

    We recommend flu shots for those who can, good health and diet for those concerned, and medical care to take care of the cases of it which are serious.

    And quite rightly we are reasonably concerned about human influenza. It's real, dangerous and deadly. But bird flu? Where are the statistics?

    But no one who's reasonable, in the absence of a clear, clean scientifically based REAL probability, is going to get upset about bird flu. The thing is mostly press hype, reinforced by careless comments made by too many authorities.

    I'd sooner get excited about being meteor struck. Even the recent report from the CDC that the 1919 flu was a mutated avian flu was only a 'suggestion' of it. Not proof, either. And given the lack of double blind work re-creating that 1919 flu pandemic virus, one might easily doubt it, as well.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #23  
    Forum Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    177
    Avian flue is still right smack in the middle of the "hype stage" of a pandemic. Very reminiscent to the "swine flue" of Gerald Ford days. Which means that it may very well never come to happen.

    Several mutations are necessary before avian flue becomes a facile human-to-human contagion. And for all we know, those mutations might very well significantly decrease its human symptomology and fatality rate.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #24  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    14,168
    Steve, every flu pandemic has crossed the species barrier from birds. The current avian flu may not do so, but a majority of health experts on the matter believe it will.
    The papers may be 'scaremongering', the authorities may be 'panicking', the experts may be 'misinterpreting'. But then, we aren't going to see a high category hurricane hit New Orleans and breach the levees any time soon, are we? Let's focus on the number of people who drown every year instead. Let's limit the spending on preventive measures since the risk is undefined and in the future.
    All your other posts that I have read have made sense. This one had me reaching for the e-mail of a courier service to send you a bucket of sand for cranial burial.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  26. #25  
    j
    j is offline
    Forum Bachelors Degree
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    431
    Steve, the 1918 flu was an avian flu; it killed more people than the war.
    Why do they want us to believe Conspiracy Theories?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  27. #26  
    Forum Sophomore
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    177
    Maybe the disease is moving out of the hype stage. Seems avain flu is getting worse, and it is mutating to be more virulent in mammals. Also a new bird flu strain has appeared:
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051114/ts_nm/birdflu_dc

    Here are a couple of quotes from the article:

    Jump in suspected bird flu cases in people
    "In Vietnam, scientists at the Ho Chi Minh Pasteur Institute who have been studying the genetic make up of H5N1 samples taken from people and poultry said it had undergone several mutations.

    "There has been a mutation allowing the virus to (replicate) effectively in mammal tissue and become highly virulent," the institute said on its Web site at www.pasteur-hcm.org.vn."


    "Perhaps just as worrying, Taiwan said on Monday it had found another highly pathogenic strain of avian flu, H7N3, in droppings left by a migratory bird and is carrying out tests to see if the virus has spread to nearby poultry farms.

    Like H5N1, the H7N3 strain can infect humans, said an official at the Council of Agriculture. "
    Reply With Quote  
     

  28. #27  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    945
    so its still there, and is growing , and that,

    so becasue it has reached a virals disease on human tissue(second quote) can't they try to devlope the plans (a batch that can be used in emergancy to make more?) of a vacine?

    and the strains metioned, along with mutations, are they of greater risk? (last quote)
    Stumble on through life.
    Feel free to correct any false information, which unknown to me, may be included in my posts. (also - let this be a disclaimer)
    Reply With Quote  
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •