Notices
Results 1 to 17 of 17

Thread: Proof that the sun is the major cause of global warming

  1. #1 Proof that the sun is the major cause of global warming 
    Forum Freshman
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    5
    For information on this you should read these articles (in order) that prove that recent global warming is due not to co2 levels, but solar radiation:

    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...-minimums.html
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...ed-global.html
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...global_04.html


    Reply With Quote  
     

  2.  
     

  3. #2  
    WYSIWYG Moderator marnixR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Cardiff, Wales
    Posts
    5,810
    proof ?


    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #3  
    Forum Ph.D. william's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Wherever I go, there I am
    Posts
    935
    Is there such a thing as "statistical proof?" Can we ever have statistics with a 100% confidence interval?

    Not claiming statistics is a bad thing... just griping about calling it "proof."

    You can use statistical evidence in science if you do not demand that the statistics demonstrate anything conclusively about any single example.

    Cheers
    "... the polhode rolls without slipping on the herpolhode lying in the invariable plane."
    ~Footnote in Goldstein's Mechanics, 3rd ed. p. 202
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #4  
    Forum Ph.D. Cat1981(England)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    South Downs.
    Posts
    913
    JonathanLowe, Satellite, weather balloon and surface temperature reading (globally) all state that night temperatures are increasing faster then day time temperatures. This is one of the reason why the green house gases - global warming theory holds so much weight as opposed to cosmic rays, sun spot cycles or any other theory. You should also be aware that local weather pattens are irrelevant when we are talking about global warming, if i used only local temperature data from some parts of Antarctica i could claim that the world is heading towards an ice age as the temperatures have been dropping (in parts) on average .7 c per decade for 20 or so years.
    Eat Dolphin, save the Tuna!!!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #5  
    Forum Freshman
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    5
    cat, i am sure that you are aware that Satellite, weather balloon and surface reading of temperatures with respect to global warming analysis are only performed on maximum and minimum temperatures only? Minimum temperature is not a measure of night time temperature because it doesn't occur at night.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #6  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    14,168
    Quote Originally Posted by JonathanLowe
    Minimum temperature is not a measure of night time temperature because it doesn't occur at night.
    I distrust absolute statements. I distrust absolute statements that are erroneous. I distrust people who make erroneous, absolute statements.
    You can figure out the rest yourself.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #7  
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    1,595
    i don't know if a more local reading can be achieved, than a balloon in one spot well above the surface.

    there are many things that could effect long term weather patterns on the planet. as for the sun, it has both rotation and a small orbit, added to ours, which means the actual energy comes from a different spot at any given moment in time. solar flares and spots are far cooler, than the surface and especially the center of the sun. if anything and the energy comes from the center working its way out through the crust, as the crust thickens the net effect should be continuously cooler.

    the solar system, also orbits the core of the galaxy, think takes about 250 million years per orbit. nothing on earth, much less intelligent life has a record of what was or will be encountered on each trip. the larger ice ages do give a little evidence to a cycle in this time period.

    i am not speculating, but the thought coolest and most massive ice age happened about the same time the last *magnetic field shift* is thought to have occurred. 780 million years ago.

    on the planet, we have no idea what goes on or has gone on in the core. we do know to what we can measure the increase is from the service down is about 1 degree F, per 60 foot. this would give you an end result of about 100k degree core, but few think its more than 3-4000. then we still have two outer layers of atmosphere which could have changed unknowingly and very recently been even noticed to possibilities.

    we do have our cycles to go by, which are reliable, to a degree and seem to be consistent. the point is however nothing happens rapidly.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #8  
    Forum Ph.D. Cat1981(England)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    South Downs.
    Posts
    913
    Jonathan, i have reread your links and i cannot see were you are going with this. If the temperature rises were due to the sun we would see a equal percentage rise (or drop) in both the maximum and minimum. There is no doubt that the sun was the driving force for global temperature well into our modern age, however since the 1940 there has been no correlation between solar output (which is indicated by sunspot numbers) and the global temperatures.....

    and for a more detailed look at the last 30 years.....


    So there must be some additional heat coming from somewhere else. My question is why is it better to use a set time rather then the coldest part of the day which is at sunrise ? If the minimum temperatures occur just before the sun warms the air around the thermometer(s) how can the sun be the reason why those temperature reading are increasing ?
    Eat Dolphin, save the Tuna!!!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #9 Re: Proof that the sun is the major cause of global warming 
    WYSIWYG Moderator marnixR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Cardiff, Wales
    Posts
    5,810
    Quote Originally Posted by JonathanLowe
    For information on this you should read these articles (in order) that prove that recent global warming is due not to co2 levels, but solar radiation:

    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...-minimums.html
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...ed-global.html
    http://gustofhotair.blogspot.com/200...global_04.html
    New Scientist seems to have got wind of your post - here's their rebuttal
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #10  
    Forum Ph.D. Wolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    969
    Well you could just have global warming without the sun, right? Oh, wait, you can't...sorry...uh...wuttheheck are we blaming now? The sun? Next it'll be the freaking sea lice.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #11  
    WYSIWYG Moderator marnixR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Cardiff, Wales
    Posts
    5,810
    never underestimate the power of numbers - all those billions of sea lice adding methane to the atmosphere with their farts

    or was that cows ?
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #12  
    Forum Ph.D. Wolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    969
    Quote Originally Posted by marnixR
    never underestimate the power of numbers - all those billions of sea lice adding methane to the atmosphere with their farts

    or was that cows ?
    Personally I believe it's the penguins. Beady-eyed little freaks. What're they doing down there all by themselves? Hmm?

    It's either the penguins....or brain damage.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #13  
    Forum Ph.D. Cat1981(England)'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    South Downs.
    Posts
    913
    Just out of interest, what do you think is the major cause of the recent warming ?
    Eat Dolphin, save the Tuna!!!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #14  
    Forum Ph.D. Wolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    969
    Quote Originally Posted by Cat1981(England)
    Just out of interest, what do you think is the major cause of the recent warming ?
    Not to shoot anyone down, but we're examining a global climate effect. Analysis requires more than a single slice of data.

    Climate changes are rather like stock-market fluctuations. They go up and down all the time, but you have to look a the overall trend.

    Unlike the stock-market, however, our planet goes through its own periodic climate changes that happen on semi-regular cycles. There are periods of unusually cold years along with periods of unusually warm years.

    I can't say, with respect to intelligence, that we (humans) aren't having an effect on the global climate...such a statement would be ludicrous. I do however think that we (humans) are contributing to an already existent change trend in the global climate. In other words, the Earth is getting hot without us, but we're not helping either.

    As for "who" is causing the most problems, that's hard to say. North-America has the most cars, but our industries aren't as polluting as some other countries, like say, China.

    Oddly enough, it is North-America that stands the best chance of making effectual changes, mainly due to our economy. We're better positioned to be proactive against pollution because we have less developmental issues than some other countries. For instance, it's easier for the US to surround its highways with trees to help with CO2 emissions, than it is for Russia.

    That may sound snotty or imperialistic, but the act of responsibility outweighs toes-stepping.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #15  
    Forum Freshman
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    W. coast, N.A., Third Stone
    Posts
    77
    Good post, Wolf I agree.

    I also believe that it behooves us to clean up our own act before we pressure any one else to clean up theirs.

    Your specific example is somewhat simplistic however. It will take more than trees along the highway to have much effect on the carbon from the cars passing by, although I admit it is a step in the right direction particularly as long as the trees are never burned or allowed to rot and are grown with low energy inputs (no or limited pumped water, little maintenance).

    Back to the original topic;

    Although I don’t get overly excited about new research until it has stood the test, I time I do find it very interesting.

    A couple weeks ago a paper (pdf warning) by Mike Lockwood and Claus Froehlich. came out in the Proceedings of the Royal Society A concerning the improbability of the sun causing the warming observed since 1985. They examined all the discussed aspects of solar forcing (including links to galactic cosmic rays) and found that the trends of all of them have headed in the opposite direction from the temperature trends over the last 20 years. They find the mathematic basis for any significant portion of the warming we have seen over this period to have been cause either directly or indirectly by changes in the sun to be insubstantial (even including the known latency in the thermal properties of the planet). It would seem to further discredit those who, want to blame the sun for the majority of the recently observed warming, particularly those that rely on Svensmark’s interesting theories and dubious calculations.

    Basically they agreed with Cat but they did it mathmatically and looked at all the factors that have been proposed. :wink:

    Time will tell.
    Terrapin
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #16  
    Guest


    Just your daily dose of forum humor. Carry on.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #17  
    Suspended
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Sacramento
    Posts
    237
    LOL! Two can play that game. My friend Seadog has some great stuff.

    Reply With Quote  
     

Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •