Notices
Results 1 to 47 of 47

Thread: Are we in a runaway greenhouse event? Carbon and methane etc., from man, animals, and natural sources could result in one, or already is!

  1. #1 Are we in a runaway greenhouse event? Carbon and methane etc., from man, animals, and natural sources could result in one, or already is! 
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Clearly, greenhouse gas emissions are helping to drive all the dramatic climate changes we are seeing these days. Massive storms, wildfires in previously wet, stable forests, rising seas levels with devastating coastal results - surely enhanced by greenhouse emissions. And they will be getting worse, much more than most people think.

    There are massive amounts of carbon locked up is tundra, and peat deposits, etc. There are also enormous amounts of methane-hydrates in the arctic, were they are shallow enough (or warming enough) that water pressure cannot prevent methane out-gassing. All of these sources, which are considerable, are already releasing greenhouse gases, and the rates are increasing. Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas, and natural sources for it are a major threat for a runaway greenhouse event

    Have read a number of conflicting reports regarding the possibility we may already be in a runaway greenhouse event. All the recent catastrophic weather could have me spooked, but with the polar ice cap melting so much and not returning in the winter as much is cause for concern. Greenland is believed to be in a terminal meltdown condition that is irreversible. There seems a lot of talk about doing something about all the human emissions, but it seems that we may have kick-started natural out-gassing that, combined with human output, could be ruinous for us all in 50 years, or less.

    Indeed, things look pretty nasty right now. In many parts of the world they would say that we do not have to wait 50 years. The impact is upon us right now, and there is no reason to believe things are going stabilize, much less get better. As usual, time will tell. But the odds appear that what time will tell us is things are going to get increasingly gruesome for more and more of the world's people. And it could be too late to stop the carnage.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  2.  
     

  3. #2  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    The way things are going it won't be long before I'll have less journey to take a dip in the sea.

    https://earth.org/the-biggest-enviro...-our-lifetime/

    COP26 just a couple of months away.
    Last chance yet again to save the planet.
    Most delegates will be flying in.
    Do as they say, not as they do.


    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #3  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The way things are going it won't be long before I'll have less journey to take a dip in the sea.
    The way things are going, others may have beach-front property in the not too distant future.

    Depending on various factors regarding rates of sea level rise, and elevation aspects, that may or may not be a good thing, as others have found out, or will before long.........
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #4  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    781
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Most delegates will be flying in.
    Do as they say, not as they do.
    A petty and pointless complaint imo - if they were living stone age lifestyles would you take them more seriously? No-one should have to stop being a functional member of society to be able to expect their governments and community leaders to take the climate problem - that they already know is serious - seriously. Starting from high economic dependence on fossil fuels whatever we do on emissions comes with a downpayment in emissions - whether it is building nuclear power plants or factories for solar and grid scale batteries that can make solar and grid scale batteries with less and ultimately no fossil fuels. Spending some emissions achieving global agreements on emissions reductions isn't hypocrisy, it is pragmatic.

    Much as many people and orgs want to make it all about personal lifestyle choices I think the problem is economy wide and solutions must come from economy wide change that makes everyone's lifestyle choices low emissions, including the extravagantly wasteful lifestyles of people who don't care.

    If your nation were being invaded you would not require people who call on the government for action to have to be buying their own guns and bullets before their concerns are taken seriously. Nor expect the Intelligence analysts and military commanders who know all about it to do so - or call them hypocrites when they do their jobs, using the tools and capabilities they have.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #5  
    Forum Radioactive Isotope
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    4,939
    Quote Originally Posted by ken fabos View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    most delegates will be flying in.
    Do as they say, not as they do.
    a petty and pointless complaint imo - if they were living stone age lifestyles would you take them more seriously? No-one should have to stop being a functional member of society to be able to expect their governments and community leaders to take the climate problem - that they already know is serious - seriously. Starting from high economic dependence on fossil fuels whatever we do on emissions comes with a downpayment in emissions - whether it is building nuclear power plants or factories for solar and grid scale batteries that can make solar and grid scale batteries with less and ultimately no fossil fuels. Spending some emissions achieving global agreements on emissions reductions isn't hypocrisy, it is pragmatic.

    Much as many people and orgs want to make it all about personal lifestyle choices i think the problem is economy wide and solutions must come from economy wide change that makes everyone's lifestyle choices low emissions, including the extravagantly wasteful lifestyles of people who don't care.

    If your nation were being invaded you would not require people who call on the government for action to have to be buying their own guns and bullets before their concerns are taken seriously. Nor expect the intelligence analysts and military commanders who know all about it to do so - or call them hypocrites when they do their jobs, using the tools and capabilities they have.
    like
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #6  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    COP26: delegates will arrive for a junket, most will say little or nothing, fly back and nothing will happen until the next summit which will again be the last chance to save the planet.
    Greta, if she attends will not be flying in and won't be gorging herself on Scottish salmon, either.
    We have to point the accusing finger at big business, the car and aircraft industry, party politics.
    Humans are naturally greedy, grabbing what they can get.
    Other animals just take what they need.
    Right down to the likes of David Attenborough who has flown millions of air miles in pursuit of his hobby, Now he's telling the little people not to fly. It suits him not to now because of his age.

    I'd put more trust in James Lovelock. Aged now 102, he got it right decades ago but few listened.
    A rise of just one degree in temperature causes a much bigger problem in climate patterns.
    His analogy with smokers is spot on. Too late they realise there was a price to pay for their indulgence.

    So what's happening in the UK, the first industrial nation which should now be taking a lead?
    Well, not much.
    Attitude seems to be that if the likes of China, India, Brazil, US are not going to play their part then why should we?
    It won't matter one jot if the UK goes all the way and the others don't.
    Sales of petrol and diesel cars are still way outstripping those of electric vehicles.
    What we have is not much more than a bunch of anarchists called Extinction Rebellion.
    Then there are the climate sceptics like Lord Lawson of Blaby who considers climate change is overstated, and most people subscribe to this.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #7  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    COP26: delegates will arrive for a junket, most will say little or nothing, fly back and nothing will happen until the next summit which will again be the last chance to save the planet.

    Attitude seems to be that if the likes of China, India, Brazil, US are not going to play their part then why should we?

    It is like a repeat of a bad movie. Lots of people go to see it, wring their hands about what to do, propose lofty goals and then go home and hope for the best.

    Hope is not a good strategy for what ails us. Mass action is needed now, but all we get are those feel-good "lofty goals".

    China* clearly isn't concerned about the massive amounts of CO2 they are cranking out - by far more than any other country in the world. They seem to enjoy making more and more of it. And the rest of the world encourages them by buying all their cheap products. The whole disaster of climate change is self-perpetuating. It seems like the "buyers" need to force the issue, but likely never will.

    It appears real solutions will evade us. One can only ask if there is intelligent life anywhere in the universe, since its presence here is more than questionable.


    "Report: China emissions exceed all developed nations combined"

    * https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57018837
    Reply With Quote  
     

  9. #8  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    781
    Attitude seems to be that if the likes of China, India, Brazil, US are not going to play their part then why should we?
    It won't matter one jot if the UK goes all the way and the others don't.
    Ah, kindergarten logic - "If everyone else doesn't do the right thing first when we don't it will be their fault". But despite being illogical as well as unethical and ultimately harmful to their own nation it strikes a chord with people who don't want to and sets up a feedback loop amongst nations that justifies the inaction of each and reinforces inaction of all. Such "logic" that serves us so badly should be called out rather than repeated.

    Have we really failed already? Having not really tried - with a significant component of trying hard to prevent trying - we get declarations of defeat with urging to stop trying. Mobilising the power of people who don't want to in the cause of inaction isn't such a big ask as mobilising people to support strong action but it requires the use of misleading information and faulty logic. Like that global conferences to make global agreements shouldn't take place - or should be criticised as hypocrisy, by people who take no responsibility for their own emissions - because it involves air travel.

    Ten years ago solar and wind were more expensive than fossil fuel energy almost everywhere. Now they are not - a profound shift, but it still takes more time than a decade to flow through. Yet it is flowing through; the rate of growth of clean energy now exceeds growth of dirty energy. That doesn't immediately make the existing dirty energy go away or even stop it's growth but it is a real milestone marking a real fork in the road. To expect what have largely been empty gesture policies (with some giving of enough rope) to have had a lot of impact on emissions already seems optimistic - yet those empty gestures have led to real and significant technologies that can be and are being built at significant scales.

    But I think the most significant short term impact of the successes of wind and solar is political; whether it will be wind and solar that ultimately do the job or not, their near term successes are undercutting the alarmist economic fear that has prevented significant commitments to zero emissions - and world leaders even saying they commit their nations to far off targets they can pass to others is a profound change. Less than 1 year ago the USA had a President and Congress fiercely opposed to strong climate action.

    A lot more is going on now than protest movements - the politics of obstruction rely heavily on encouraging the view that people who care about the issue must be extremists like that (we are not); real action through significant policy now has real mainstream support. The result of that will still take time to flow through.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  10. #9  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fabos View Post
    The result of that will still take time to flow through.
    This is certain, indeed perhaps the biggest problem of all - time. And it is true that more than protest is going on to try and change things.

    Still, it does seem that the movement to alter the equation in favor of reduced emissions is way too slow, and that the time required for "flow through" may take too long. Clearly we have no other option.

    As always, time will tell. One can hope that all you have posted works out. Doubtless that "the most significant short term impact of the successes of wind and solar is political". And it is also true that the political impact is driving a strong mindset in many who want these changes to be successful. We certainly need a mass acceptance for it to stand a chance.

    It does seem that time is not on our side. Global population continues to rise, along with emissions and climate change. Most people, for good reason, fear more about the "here and now" than the future.

    How we get on a working, viable path that leads to sufficient moderation of the problem is rather murky, at best.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  11. #10  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    I get the impression that many people think that God or aliens will come down to rescue us if things get hopelessly out of hand.
    The first appeals to evangelists in particular. It was God who gave us the world's resources to exploit and God will fix it.
    The second appeals to the New Age culture.
    There is also a third type who act like irresponsible gamblers.

    By our greed and miscalculation we have violated Mother Earth and now she responds.
    According to Lovelock our planet behaves like a living organism.

    Another theory is that any habitable planets with resources and intelligent life will die in this way.
    A very big price has to be paid.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  12. #11  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    781
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    I get the impression that many people think that God or aliens will come down to rescue us if things get hopelessly out of hand.
    The first appeals to evangelists in particular. It was God who gave us the world's resources to exploit and God will fix it.
    The second appeals to the New Age culture.
    There is also a third type who act like irresponsible gamblers.

    By our greed and miscalculation we have violated Mother Earth and now she responds.
    According to Lovelock our planet behaves like a living organism.

    Another theory is that any habitable planets with resources and intelligent life will die in this way.
    A very big price has to be paid.
    There are also many people who want to face up to it - and most of them are not activists or extremists. That includes scientists and engineers and entrepreneurs who can and are making low emissions technologies - potentially zero emissions technologies - work at costs that don't require loss of prosperity to reduce emissions.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  13. #12  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fabos View Post
    There are also many people who want to face up to it - and most of them are not activists or extremists. That includes scientists and engineers and entrepreneurs who can and are making low emissions technologies - potentially zero emissions technologies - work at costs that don't require loss of prosperity to reduce emissions.
    The problem is not the lack of interest in doing something about it. The issue is the scale of the emissions, and the number of people who are not sufficiently concerned, or capable of doing anything. They are largely the ignorant masses who vastly out number those "who want to face up to it". With about 7.7 billion people on the planet, it is pretty easy to estimate why this is such a difficult proposal.

    And the time for corrective action is rapidly vanishing, all while the solutions are still being debated. The final analysis is that time is not on our side. It is decidedly running against us.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  14. #13  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    COP26: delegates will arrive for a junket, most will say little or nothing, fly back and nothing will happen until the next summit which will again be the last chance to save the planet.
    A report today from the UN indicates the world is failing badly at controlling emissions, and we are not getting where we need to be (1,2). This report demonstrates the real problems we are facing, and the lack of sufficient effort to combat climate change. As noted in the quote above, it appears the "powers that be" are not doing much of anything to solve the issue. There is no denying this reality as we watch the global impact of climate change, and review the newest UN report on it.

    It is difficult to perceive anything being done to effectively mitigate the situation. Green technologies developed and deployed are not likely to solve the problem by themselves. So the issue still remains unsolved, and is just getting worse. Without a firm, binding commitment from the major players, the situation is certain to continuously deteriorate.

    It would be nice to think we can do something about all this. Perhaps the next COP26 meeting will make us all feel better.


    "Climate change: UN warning over nations' climate plans"

    1. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58600723


    "UN: Climate pledges put world on ‘catastrophic pathway’"

    2. https://apnews.com/article/europe-bu...14c0070142ff59
    Reply With Quote  
     

  15. #14  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    But what can governments actually do?
    They know that if they deliberately shrink the economy which what is needed they'll get voted out.
    Politicians in the free world know that their jobs are only temporary, and they might be happy to pass the buck.
    But they still want to leave a legacy and it's not going to be a collapsed economy.

    Capitalism must now come under scrutiny because every business needs to grow.
    I'm a bit tired of hearing about a company's green credentials because it is usually just a promise.

    Can we forfeit the game which has given us the modern world?
    What would you get governments to do?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  16. #15  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    But what can governments actually do?

    What would you get governments to do?

    What governments could do is move towards the only real and likely solution to global warming - laws requiring decreases in emissions, and funding for direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 using many installations operating around the world. But the costs are much higher than the "feel good" promises that the politicians and companies make. Since the modest green applications of solar, wind and electric will not turn the tide, it seem that DAC is the only realistic alternative.

    A recent article* provides a look at this technology, and the potential it has for saving the planet. Environmental recovery could be very big business, employing a lot of people. The problem with it, like so many other things, is the cost. Who is going to pay for it? All of us should be demanding to pay for it, considering the alternatives. And if we don't pay for it, Mother Nature is showing us those alternatives.

    Quoting from the article about the need for DAC:

    "“We have to try to proceed. There’s no choice. We have to sequester carbon at a high rate,” said Ken Alex, director of Project Climate at the Center for Law, Energy and Environment at the University of California, Berkeley. Carbon-capture technology has been around for a while, he noted, but was considered too expensive. “The price has already come down dramatically, and as it scales up, I think it’s not unrealistic to think that this is a viable opportunity,” he said."

    end quote

    Whatever the case, we are all going to pay for the efforts to reduce climate change by advancing such technologies, or we will pay for it a different way by doing too little, too late. Based on past inactivity, the latter seems the most likely course. By doing too little to change the equation, Mother Nature will deal with the overpopulation that is driving the global catastrophe we are looking at now, and in the future. One way or another, there will be a heavy price to pay.


    "These companies are sucking carbon out of the atmosphere — and investors are piling in"

    * https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/thes...tmosphere.html
    Reply With Quote  
     

  17. #16  
    Forum Ph.D.
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    781
    It is still cheaper, easier and more effective to invest in growth of clean energy than Direct Air Capture or any other Carbon Capture and Storage. Investments in clean energy production deliver useful energy but Capture and Storage requires more clean energy to make fossil fuels low emissions than using clean energy directly to replace fossil fuels.

    The IEA estimated that renewable energy accounted for 90% of all growth in new energy in 2020. Sustained renewable energy capacity growth at above 20% pa is remarkable - especially given the opposition and obstruction by mainstream politics; energy policy has been notable for limited ambition and compromises that undercut their effectiveness arising from the conflicted politics. Renewables are better placed to achieve more growth than ever before - and that flows through to potential for more ambitious policies.

    There is still room for pessimism - the capacity for bad governance to make a manageable problem much worse cannot be underestimate (climate science denial being a prime example) but there is also a lot that we can be optimistic about.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  18. #17  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Environmental recovery could be very big business, employing a lot of people. The problem with it, like so many other things, is the cost. Who is going to pay for it? All of us should be demanding to pay for it, considering the alternatives. And if we don't pay for it, Mother Nature is showing us those alternatives.
    How many is a lot?
    Will taxes alone pay for it?

    There is a stark truth here and no doubt controversial.
    There are far too many people on this planet.
    You couldn't argue there are far too many elephants or chimpanzees.
    Mother nature left to itself would limit any population explosion.
    In the last century we had 2 world wars, but since then the human population has tripled.
    Humans 1 Nature 0.
    So the planet tries again.
    Should she be defeated there will a bigger price to pay.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  19. #18  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by Ken Fabos View Post
    It is still cheaper, easier and more effective to invest in growth of clean energy than Direct Air Capture or any other Carbon Capture and Storage. Investments in clean energy production deliver useful energy but Capture and Storage requires more clean energy to make fossil fuels low emissions than using clean energy directly to replace fossil fuels.
    The UN experts took all things into account about the future of climate change. These people know more about this problem than anyone else on the planet. And they have declared that too little is being done to prevent a ‘catastrophic pathway’". This report indicates that all efforts at clean energy and growing plants is not going to change the equation. All of these approaches were considered in this evaluation, which most rational people are not going to dismiss with a wave of the hand. We are NOT on any kind of path for changing the global problem. There is nothing more to be said about it. Any doubt, watch the global weather conditions and the steep rise in emissions which are ongoing. Most of us have to buy into what the real experts say, and they say we are in deep trouble despite ALL efforts to turn things around.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  20. #19  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Environmental recovery could be very big business, employing a lot of people. The problem with it, like so many other things, is the cost. Who is going to pay for it? All of us should be demanding to pay for it, considering the alternatives. And if we don't pay for it, Mother Nature is showing us those alternatives.
    How many is a lot?
    Will taxes alone pay for it?
    Thousands of DAC units running around the world will be required, so they would require many to build, operate and maintain. Of course it sounds like a nightmare to fund and organize, but if we do not, what kind of nightmare do we get if nothing is done? (We are getting a glimpse of that now.) And nothing being done is our current situation despite those highly touted band-aide solutions. Emissions continue to ramp up. There seems no other solution than a drastic one to face a drastic problem.

    Will taxes pay for it? It is not clear how it would be funded, but it should be clear what will happen if it is not. All the global infrastructure built around the world at sea level will become submerged in the coming years. What would the cost of that be to deal with and replace? This is not speculation. Read the U.N. report if any doubt. It is very accurate, and grim.

    Again, there seems little option. The U.N. report is not propaganda, or fake news. It is the reality the world faces based on an enormous scientific evaluation by the world's experts.

    Would love to hear about real, alternative solutions. So far, DAC is the only one that makes any sense, and offers a viable remedy.
    Last edited by Double Helix; September 19th, 2021 at 06:32 PM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  21. #20  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Man of action Boris Johnson now telling the world to grow up and take action against climate change.
    Okay, but don't mention his plans for coal mines and oil fields and having protestors imprisoned.

    But the China problem will always remain. Nearly 30% of global emissions, and with only a pledge to lower them.
    They burn everything that can burn and eat everything that can be eaten. They have 1.5 billion mouths to feed.
    But Pakistan is planning to plant billions of trees.

    Relieved? I don't think so.
    Confused? Even more so.
    Conspiracy? Something is going on here.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  22. #21  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    For those folks living in the U.K., a DAC installation is being prepared in Scotland* and set to start operations in 2026.

    The cost of these things have to come down to make this work, but there seems no other alternative because the emissions are not going down. They are going up. And there is no end in sight. There is only talk about reducing them.

    Does it seem unlikely that this tech will save the planet? Yes, because of the almighty profit issue.

    Is there an alternative? Not at all likely.

    What will happen if we do not employ DAC to reduce CO2?

    Nobody really wants to know the answer........


    "Climate change: Large-scale CO2 removal facility set for Scotland"

    * https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-57588248
    Last edited by Double Helix; September 24th, 2021 at 06:04 PM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  23. #22  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    How many DAC plants are needed to solve the problem?

    What about methane?
    There are some crazy ideas.
    http://marineagronomy.org/sites/defa...ow%20burps.pdf
    Reply With Quote  
     

  24. #23  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    How many DAC plants are needed to solve the problem?

    What about methane?
    There are some crazy ideas.
    http://marineagronomy.org/sites/defa...ow%20burps.pdf

    The number of DAC installations will depend on how efficient they can be made. This is a developing technology that will need a lot of R&D to optimize. But they will be required in large numbers since emissions will continue to rise from all the gas and coal-fired power plants, and hydrocarbon powered cars, planes, ships, homes, etc. Nasty hydrocarbon sources are not going away any time soon, at least not in the developing world which cannot or will not pay for more advanced power sources.

    This is all the more reason to scale up hydrogen power and solar panels ASAP. Combining DAC with a mass move to hydrogen and solar is likely the only meaningful approach, with wind providing some help.

    Methane converts to CO2 from hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere*. It is a slow process. Removing the CO2 is much more significant than methane as CO2 accounts for about 75% of global warming due to its extreme abundance. Deep cuts in global warming from CO2 removal will significantly decrease methane emissions from natural sources.

    But there is a severe constraint on this process. We don't have much time to solve the problem, assuming it is not already too late.


    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosp...pheric_methane
    Reply With Quote  
     

  25. #24  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Royalty to the rescue.
    Ah, such class.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-58865883
    Reply With Quote  
     

  26. #25  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    "Adapt or die" seems to be, at least for some, the only solution to the damaging impacts of climate change. And they are probably right.

    This is literally what some are saying *. It appears that active solutions to the problem are not being considered by the 'powers that be', which is not surprising regarding the cost.

    "Money, its a hit. Don't give me that do goody good bullshit." (Roger Waters, Pink Floyd)

    Still, the future changes projected in this article appear to be pretty nasty, and these are certainly not limited to the U.K.. For some, it might be time to consider moving to higher ground, and well away from rivers and streams.

    Sooner would be better than later......



    "Climate change: 'Adapt or die' warning from Environment Agency"

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58883234
    Reply With Quote  
     

  27. #26  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Now Coldplay to the rescue.
    They have kinetic flooring to help save the planet.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58898766

    Should be installed in all homes by 2030.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  28. #27  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Now Coldplay to the rescue.
    They have kinetic flooring to help save the planet.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-58898766

    Should be installed in all homes by 2030.

    Clearly yet another "feel good" PR ploy.

    Quoting from the article:

    "The band will generate electricity from concertgoers stepping on tiles but it's hard to work out how much will be produced. There was an installation at the 2013 Paris Marathon which saw 40,000 runners generate 7kWh. Numbers in that range would meet only 2-3% of a typical Coldplay venue's energy needs. "

    end quote

    This is certain to have an impact on their highly educated mass of fans at least, enhancing the "Green Image", like so many other nonsense ploys.

    Well, ox, perhaps COP26 will suggest the use of such contraptions at all concerts. One of their many great suggestions on how to deal with the heat.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  29. #28  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    COP26: delegates will arrive for a junket, most will say little or nothing, fly back and nothing will happen until the next summit which will again be the last chance to save the planet.
    Looks like you are not alone in this assessment, ox:


    Queen Elizabeth II also is not amused about inaction from COP26.

    When her comments were captured on video*, she is heard saying "It's really irritating when they talk, but they don't do."

    Unlike many others, it sounds like she has been paying attention.


    "Queen Elizabeth says lack of action on climate change is 'irritating' "

    * https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/15/uk/qu...gbr/index.html
    Reply With Quote  
     

  30. #29  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Coal mining in West Virginia.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/science/envi...risis-rcna2397
    How the billionaire governor makes his money and he's not interested in COP.

    Proposed mine in Cumbria, but no decision until after COP (obviously).
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-58761947

    Then there's you know who.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58839894
    1.4 billion to be fed and economically they need to catch up with West, and have a space program.
    If they don't take a lead then what would be the point of doing anything?

    And with a population nearly 1.4 billion that also need to be fed and watered.
    https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pac...ahead-of-cop26

    Then there's all the famous people who say 'If you don't cut out the flying then why should I'?
    How many air miles has David Attenborough clocked up in his career?
    Will private jets be banned?
    Just kick the can down the road and forget it.

    Why don't more do it online?
    Just think of the CO2.
    But they like flying, too, and the prawn cocktail sandwiches.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58925049
    Last edited by ox; October 19th, 2021 at 06:19 AM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  31. #30  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quoting from https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58925049

    "If President Xi, Prime Minister Modi and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman don't turn up, the risk is that the conference is declared a failure even before it starts."

    end quote

    It is a failure before it starts, even if these people do show up. Most of those who speak will likely tell us what we want to hear and then party with the 25,000 others who are making an appearance. And then there are the companies who rely on cheap power to make massive profits (quoting from same):

    "Representatives from steel, concrete and many other international businesses are usually represented at an event like COP26.

    The UN also wants to encourage engagement from fossil-fuel industries and "carbon-heavy" corporations.

    There are often questions about the scale of influence that these large companies have, especially when they can afford to send hundreds of delegates to the COP."

    end quote

    It is made to look like something is being done to change the equation. At least some of these people are having a good time. That is likely because they know it is all a big joke. COP started back in 1995*, and people have been talking about The Problem ever since.

    How are we doing?!


    "United Nations Climate Change conference"

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...nge_conference
    Reply With Quote  
     

  32. #31  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Not our problem. It's yours.
    Easy to employ constructive accounting.
    The real COP will be outside the conference hall.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58982445
    Reply With Quote  
     

  33. #32  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    It appears we have even screwed up the vital carbon sink that we relied on so much to minimize global warming.*

    And it is a safe bet that even this news will not move the needle in favor of actually doing anything about it.

    And there seems little doubt that the carbon sink will only decrease as deforestation continues in the Amazon, etc., and more organics trapped in the "soil" from these former forests and jungles begins to decompose and release even more CO2 and methane.

    Makes you want to pull the covers over your head and wish it would all go away. Or get those carbon DACs going ASAP! That remains the only viable solution. Costly, yes, but not impossible. People better wake up to reality, and get moving on this.


    "Climate change: Human activity makes forests emit carbon"

    * https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59065127
    Reply With Quote  
     

  34. #33  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    And there seems little doubt that the carbon sink will only decrease as deforestation continues in the Amazon, etc.,
    The planet has lost about half its trees due to human activity. I can't see how DAC's can make that much difference.

    In time the trees will come back but it could take thousands of years.
    It makes me wonder why the Earth is so good at growing trees.
    But all a tree needs to grow is water and carbon atoms, both of which come out of the air.
    So more carbon in the air should mean more trees.

    They even used to be on Antarctica.
    https://earthsky.org/earth/a-tempera...-of-dinosaurs/
    Reply With Quote  
     

  35. #34  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    The planet has lost about half its trees due to human activity. I can't see how DAC's can make that much difference.
    You need enough of them running 24/7 to decrease the CO2 levels. A very big challenge, but it could be done. Nothing else will work!


    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    But all a tree needs to grow is water and carbon atoms, both of which come out of the air.
    Plants need a lot more than just carbon and water. A nitrogen source in the soil, and all those minerals. With many burned out areas getting scrubbed by floods, many of these minerals will be lost to previously forested areas.

    Your projection for thousands of years seems reasonable if some major corrective actions are not taken. By then, man may no longer dominate the planet's biosphere, and no longer screwing it up so badly.

    That could start "The Age of the Cockroach", or some other form of insect. It appears inevitable. The meek shall inherit the earth (Matthew 5:5).
    Last edited by Double Helix; October 29th, 2021 at 10:58 AM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  36. #35  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    That could start "The Age of the Cockroach", or some other form of insect. It appears inevitable. The meek shall inherit the earth (Matthew 5:5).
    Orwell got it right. Not 1984 but 2084 when as he predicted the world will have 3 superpowers.
    Forget about planet B.
    The meek will not inherit the earth. China and Russia will. USA will keep its distance.

    There will be wars and mass migrations due to climate change.
    Australia will cease to be a nation. Because of its resources it will be invaded and become part of Greater China.
    Europe will run out of resources and become like a third world.

    America will be last bastion of freedom and effectively a life raft.
    Small ocean nations will disappear under the waves.
    The Arctic will be ocean with hardly any floating ice.
    The Antarctic will start to green up.

    Unless, unless...something totally unpredictable does come along (like Covid, perhaps).
    Reply With Quote  
     

  37. #36  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    The Associated Press (AP) has just published an article* about direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide, and two plants which are currently working to achieve this lofty goal.

    The article paints a grim future for the planet unless something drastic is done. As they say, drastic times call for drastic measures. Of course the cost will be high, just like all those high emissions which got us to this point.

    Quoting from the article:

    "Leading scientific agencies including the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say that even if the world manages to stop producing harmful emissions, that still won’t be enough to avert a climate catastrophe. They say we need to suck massive amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air and put it back underground — yielding what some call “negative emissions.” "

    end quote

    AP also published a rather gruesome story** about the drought in the Kenya, one of many droughts wrecking havoc on the world's ecosystems. Of course most of these droughts are caused by climate change.

    None of us should feel left out of all this. There are likely extreme weather events coming to a place near you (if not already), or will before long. Unless drastic measures are taken, things will only get much worse, for everyone, in one way or another.

    Do you suppose they will get this worked out at COP26? One wonders how seriously DAC is even being considered, since it appears our only escape hatch to prevent catastrophic climate changes. The cost alone will surely have many people rolling their eyes, just like they first did decades ago when told we are in big trouble. Some people just don't care, and many of them are the primary sources for the world's problems.


    "Air-scrubbing machines gain momentum, but long way to go"

    * https://apnews.com/article/climate-t...10fac44d08dce6


    " AP PHOTOS: ‘If they die, we all die’: Drought kills in Kenya"

    ** https://apnews.com/article/drought-k...5b988d7641e5d4
    Reply With Quote  
     

  38. #37  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    They say we need to suck massive amounts of carbon dioxide out of the air and put it back underground
    For millions of years the carbon had been stored underground and now we need to put it back.
    But only for so long before we need to get it back out again.
    The new carbon cycle?

    Of course most of these droughts are caused by climate change.
    Caused by humans.

    None of us should feel left out of all this. There are likely extreme weather events coming to a place near you (if not already), or will before long. Unless drastic measures are taken, things will only get much worse, for everyone, in one way or another.
    Not for me. I'm over 70 and thank the Lord I won't be around much longer.

    Do you suppose they will get this worked out at COP26?
    They'll work it out all right, but will be impotent to do anything.
    You ain't seen nothing yet. Wars will follow. We know this because of the Price Equation applied to biology.

    Some people just don't care, and many of them are the primary sources for the world's problems.
    Most people don't care.
    They never understand there is always a price to be paid.
    Let's have an end of the world party.
    Last edited by ox; November 9th, 2021 at 08:02 AM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  39. #38  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Most people don't care.
    They never understand there is always a price to be paid.

    Humans have a way of screwing things up pretty badly. One can only wonder if we have the ability to meet the existential threat we have foisted on our own species, and many others. Time will tell, but right now it looks pretty grim.

    It would seem that global political aspects may overwhelm any chance we have of remediating the on-going environmental situation. It will take a lot of luck and determination to get past the state we are in. It seems doubtful that we will be able to overcome our intellectual deficiencies.

    In short, we know enough to be dangerous, and the proof of this is rather obvious.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  40. #39  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Humans have a way of screwing things up pretty badly.
    How far would you go back?
    I think it all kicked off when we stopped foraging and entered the agricultural age.
    Becoming human meant we had the ability to strip the world of its resources and exploit the natural world.

    One can only wonder if we have the ability to meet the existential threat we have foisted on our own species, and many others. Time will tell, but right now it looks pretty grim.
    Nations will look after themselves. There will be no world government.
    COP 26 has proved the divide.
    It's also revealed that nations will not give up burning fossil fuels.
    In other words it's been a disaster.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  41. #40  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    How far would you go back?
    I think it all kicked off when we stopped foraging and entered the agricultural age.
    Civilization has its great rewards and failures. It is reasonable to believe that "the agricultural age", specifically when people started "claiming" land, began a major transformation of the planet by human activities. Pollution was only one aspect.

    Civilization also likely led to the start of wars, since developed land gave people a reason to engage in conflicts - to steal the works of others rather than forage, and compete with other predators. Both were undesirable compared to fixed habitats, and stealing them was easier than building them up.

    Back when we were hunter-gatherers, humans did not engage in warfare since there was little reason for it. Groups or tribes who came into conflict would quickly go different ways, since violent interactions led to deaths and injuries which paid no dividends.

    The establishment of fixed locations for agriculture and more stable habitats promoted the conditions which led to the development of many aspects of modern civilization. It seems that our worst tendencies came to fruition once we established these fixed societies, ones that could work marvels for humans, but also invite its nasty consequences.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  42. #41  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Back when we were hunter-gatherers, humans did not engage in warfare since there was little reason for it.
    Really?

    Groups or tribes who came into conflict would quickly go different ways, since violent interactions led to deaths and injuries which paid no dividends.
    Again, how do you know that?
    Our cousins the chimpanzees seem to go to war for no particular reason.

    The establishment of fixed locations for agriculture and more stable habitats promoted the conditions which led to the development of many aspects of modern civilization.
    Have there been any civilisations that have not been destabilised?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  43. #42  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Again, how do you know that?
    Our cousins the chimpanzees seem to go to war for no particular reason.
    I took it as a matter of fact after reading Gwynne Dyer's masterpiece book War. He has a Ph.D in Military and Middle Eastern history at King's College London*. He is considered one of the world's experts on the origin and causes of war. He produced an 8-part miniseries based on the book, with one episode nominated for an Oscar for best documentary in 1983.

    As I recall the details, these concepts have been proposed by war historians based on the remains of many prehistoric humans, who often buried their dead, and therefore provided evidence to support this conclusion. Few skeletons showed signs of violent death such as one would expect if war and violent conflicts were common in early humans. It is predicted based on these findings that hunter-gathers did not engage in heated battles, at least not frequently.

    Humans are a lot smarter than chimpanzees, or at least it would seem. As previously noted, not much was to be gained by early humans engaging in brutal conflicts. They knew all too well about the nature of death and severe injury.

    Chimps might not be so smart, or even care. The Gombe Chimpanzee War in the 1970s** was not a common event between the species, and actually broke out between a unified community of chimps which split into two factions. The demise of the community apparently led to the development of a remarkable "war" between the two factions, both led by alpha males. Chimp "wars" are more like "family feuds" (a chimp civil war) rather than conflict between unrelated groups. A much different issue which could also have happened in primitive human tribes.

    As far as I know, it has never been established that primates other than humans frequently engage in large scale battles between unrelated individuals.

    Would love to hear more about these concepts from anyone with more knowledge of these aspects. Ox has raised in interesting issue : "Early Primate Wars - Who did what, when and why?!"


    * https://gwynnedyer.com/


    "Gombe Chimpanzee War"

    ** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gombe_Chimpanzee_War
    Last edited by Double Helix; November 12th, 2021 at 01:16 PM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  44. #43  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Humans are a lot smarter than chimpanzees...
    How do you account for that?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  45. #44  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Humans are a lot smarter than chimpanzees...
    How do you account for that?
    Apparently based on an opinion of the definition of intelligence.

    Never heard of the first chimpanzee on the moon, etc.

    We are all open to different interpretations.

    How would you account for any other conclusion?
    Reply With Quote  
     

  46. #45  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    How would you account for any other conclusion?
    Humans destroy their own habitat.
    I've never heard of chimps doing that. They live in harmony with nature.
    They are not felling trees, polluting the air, cooking with fires, concreting over the land, interfering with the balance of the earth's biomass, etc. etc.


    Never heard of the first chimpanzee on the moon, etc.

    A chimp may have been first on the moon.
    Soviets put a dog into orbit (Laika) in 1957. She died alone, terrified and in pain - not admitted until 2002.
    No doubt a lot still shrouded in secrecy.
    Last edited by ox; November 14th, 2021 at 10:58 AM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  47. #46  
    Forum Senior Double Helix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2020
    Posts
    317
    Quote Originally Posted by ox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    How would you account for any other conclusion?
    Humans destroy their own habitat.
    I've never heard of chimps doing that. They live in harmony with nature.
    They are not felling trees, polluting the air, cooking with fires, concreting over the land, interfering with the balance of the earth's biomass, etc. etc.


    Never heard of the first chimpanzee on the moon, etc.

    A chimp may have been first on the moon.
    Soviets put a dog into orbit (Laika) in 1957. She died alone, terrified and in pain - not admitted until 2002.
    No doubt a lot still shrouded in secrecy.

    Have you been watching too many "Planet of the Apes" re-runs?

    Or perhaps we need to redefine the concept of "intelligence". Others might agree with this.
    Last edited by Double Helix; November 14th, 2021 at 04:56 PM.
    Reply With Quote  
     

  48. #47  
    ox
    ox is offline
    Forum Professor
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    1,822
    Quote Originally Posted by Double Helix View Post
    Have you been watching too many "Planet of the Apes" re-runs?
    Unlike some people I have learned how to spot the difference between fantasy and reality.
    Reply With Quote  
     

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 5
    Last Post: March 15th, 2013, 01:36 AM
  2. Replies: 204
    Last Post: October 2nd, 2012, 12:16 AM
  3. Replies: 18
    Last Post: August 9th, 2012, 06:54 PM
  4. Runaway Greenhouse Effect
    By Monkey.Man in forum Environmental Issues
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: July 4th, 2010, 02:06 AM
  5. Replies: 40
    Last Post: February 2nd, 2010, 11:15 AM
Bookmarks
Bookmarks
Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •