Thread: Peak oil of conventional oil happened in 2006!!!

peak oil is a model of predicting oil production.
It predicts, that oil will reach a peak, and then decline, in a symmetric bell shaped curve.
Currently, most peak oil models predict, that this will happen, around now. (not very precise)

The interesting part, that i just learned today. Is that conventional oil peaked back in 2006.
Unconventional oil still saves the day.
But this is a clear sigh of the beginning of the end of the oil era!

Unconventional oil is harder to produce, with a slower increase of production.
Conventional oil will drop of faster then new unconventional oil.
So it will not be long before global production of oil peaks also

You need to take in too account in this, that the population is still increasing.
So the shortage will be more severe then the absolute numbers imply.
Actually, per capita oil production alredy peaked some decades ago.
This wasn't apparent, because of the huge economic inequalities of the world.

.... and the media didn't bother to tell us....

we are toast

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

peak oil is a model of predicting oil production.
It predicts, that oil will reach a peak, and then decline, in a symmetric bell shaped curve.

It need not be symmetric.

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

Currently, most peak oil models predict, that this will happen, around now. (not very precise)

Incorrect. There is considerable variation in the predictions, varying from "it has already happened" to "fifty plus years away".

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

The interesting part, that i just learned today. Is that conventional oil peaked back in 2006.

The figures are complex. Where did you see this specific report? What was it based on? Who made it? I remain skeptical until you can put some flesh on the bones.

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

Unconventional oil is harder to produce, with a slower increase of production.
Conventional oil will drop of faster then new unconventional oil.
So it will not be long before global production of oil peaks also

I challenge these two statements. What evidence do you have that production rates of unconventional oil will increase at a slower rate than conventional?
On what basis do you declare that unconventional oil will last only a short time? Have you considered the amount of unconventional oil that is available? It seems not. If you have , please provide numbers to justify your assertion.

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

You need to take in too account in this, that the population is still increasing.
So the shortage will be more severe then the absolute numbers imply.

Don't you think you should also take into account the increasing use of alternative and renewable energy sources, and the increased energy efficiency of everything from light bulbs to airliners?

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

.... and the media didn't bother to tell us....

They did if you were paying attention.

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

Unconventional oil is harder to produce, with a slower increase of production.

Which will make it more expensive. Which will drive people to alternatives. Which will slow down use of oil, which will extend the reserves.

Actually, per capita oil production alredy peaked some decades ago.

That's a good thing; we can support more people with less oil. If that trend continues we are in good shape.

.... and the media didn't bother to tell us....

?? I've seen dozens of media stories about peak oil.

Originally Posted by John Galt

It need not be symmetric.

....maybe i was a bit unclear. I had in mind hubert's model.
It's the most credible in my opinion.
Taking in too account that trying to predict the future always requires some speculation....

Originally Posted by John Galt

Incorrect. There is considerable variation in the predictions, varying from "it has already happened" to "fifty plus years away".

I think the hubert model is the most credible.
The others, for example the IEA, simply plot the demand until the reserves run out.

I didn't had in mind to debate hubert model of peak oil.
Basically, the way the hubert model extrapolates, takes in to account current treands of discoveries and extraction easiness.
Yes, it's not hard science....

Originally Posted by John Galt

The figures are complex. Where did you see this specific report? What was it based on? Who made it? I remain skeptical until you can put some flesh on the bones.

The IEA it self half said it. Their predictions are crap, but we can trust them for the past.
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/...ype=blogs&_r=0

Originally Posted by John Galt

I challenge these two statements. What evidence do you have that production rates of unconventional oil will increase at a slower rate than conventional?
On what basis do you declare that unconventional oil will last only a short time? Have you considered the amount of unconventional oil that is available? It seems not. If you have , please provide numbers to justify your assertion.

Unconventional oil, is hard to produce.... by definition. It takes a lot of investments and more time.
The factories need to be build, their's a limit how fast they can be build and how fast people can be trained etc....
For example, in Canada, a lot of water is needed on top of more energy to produce oil from the tar sands.

I didn't say it will last a short time, i said that it will prevent the reduction of total oil production for a short time.
Conventional oil will start to fall faster while unconventional will accelerate.
The acceleration of unconventional will be not enough to cover the fall of the conventional.

It's not just a matter of how much you have, but how fast you can get it out of the ground.
It's not like a straw in a glass of water.
There is a limit how fast industry can do things. How fast experts are trained.

Originally Posted by John Galt

Don't you think you should also take into account the increasing use of alternative and renewable energy sources, and the increased energy efficiency of everything from light bulbs to airliners?

and people changing there smart phone every year.....

from memory, alternative energies account for around 10% in Europe, today.
about aeroplanes, they are alredy very efficient. Any more gains will be marginal.
This reflect most things in general. Efficiency is alredy very good, any more increases will be small on average.

Also, energy is not a commodity as any other. It impacts the price of everything.

In the context of more expensive energy, every thing will be more expensive, in a non linear way.
It's not certain that something that is energy efficient will remain financially viable.

Originally Posted by John Galt

They did if you were paying attention.

The media don't acknowledge we going to have a problem.

Originally Posted by billvon

Which will make it more expensive. Which will drive people to alternatives. Which will slow down use of oil, which will extend the reserves.

It's none linear.

Production will be falling anyway. Demand will have to adjust to the production.
From the beginning of production. Raw production capacity is increasing, but yields are decreasing.
During the fall, the raw production capacity will keep increasing, but yields will keep decreasing faster.
Trying to catch up, would require exponentially more production capacity, for exponentially less production.

If you want to break the model.
You would need an exponentially increasing price, in order to maintain the financing of ever more production capacity.

The industry alredy goes as fast as it can. It builds factories as fast as it can. It trains experts as fast as it can.
It consumes other stuff, like steal, concrete, water etc....
The rest of the economy has needs also.

An other issue. You need energy to produce energy. An increase in price of energy has a demultiplied effect on the price of new energy produced. And you need energy to make everything else. So everything gets more expensive in a none linear manner.

I'm not talking about the after oil era. But it doesn't seam plausible we can maintain the current life stile with out oil.

Originally Posted by billvon

That's a good thing; we can support more people with less oil. If that trend continues we are in good shape.

That's because of all the people that are starving in the developing world and are unsolvent.
Not because we get more efficient.
Energy poverty has actually increased regularly for a few decades now.

Originally Posted by billvon

?? I've seen dozens of media stories about peak oil.

I meant, conventional oil peak .... that happened

Originally Posted by Quantum immortal

Originally Posted by John Galt

They did if you were paying attention.

The media don't acknowledge we going to have a problem.

"The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." - Report from the DOE, quoted in the New York Times and via the BBC.

Originally Posted by billvon

Which will make it more expensive. Which will drive people to alternatives. Which will slow down use of oil, which will extend the reserves.

It's none linear.
Production will be falling anyway. Demand will have to adjust to the production.
From the beginning of production. Raw production capacity is increasing, but yields are decreasing.
During the fall, the raw production capacity will keep increasing, but yields will keep decreasing faster.
Trying to catch up, would require exponentially more production capacity, for exponentially less production.

Or alternatives. Whale oil production declined because we had an alternative. That will happen to oil as well.

If you want to break the model.
You would need an exponentially increasing price, in order to maintain the financing of ever more production capacity.

No, you just need a linear price increase, which will halt once oil becomes more expensive than alternatives. You'd have to be nuts to use oil when cheaper and easier sources of energy are available.

The industry alredy goes as fast as it can. It builds factories as fast as it can. It trains experts as fast as it can.
It consumes other stuff, like steal, concrete, water etc....
The rest of the economy has needs also.

Right. And they use the cheapest energy they can. So far that's been oil. When it's something else, then they will use that. Not because they hate oil or anything, but because they want to make more money than their competitors.

I'm not talking about the after oil era. But it doesn't seam plausible we can maintain the current life stile with out oil.

Our lifestyle will definitely change, just as it changed when we moved from horses to cars, from whale oil to petroleum, and from gas lamps to electricity. But not all those changes were bad.

Originally Posted by billvon

That's a good thing; we can support more people with less oil. If that trend continues we are in good shape.

That's because of all the people that are starving in the developing world and are unsolvent.
Not because we get more efficient.
Energy poverty has actually increased regularly for a few decades now.

It's actually gone in the other direction. Very poor people now have access to solar power (via microgrids) cellphones, refrigeration etc in larger numbers than ever before. That's a good thing.

Originally Posted by billvon

?? I've seen dozens of media stories about peak oil.

I meant, conventional oil peak .... that happened

The stories I've seen did not mention "conventional peak oil" - they just talk about peak oil, period.

Originally Posted by billvon

Or alternatives. Whale oil production declined because we had an alternative. That will happen to oil as well.

No whale oil production declined because we depleted the whale populations.
The advent of petroleum was just a lucky fluke (excuse the pun)
Scarcity of supply had driven whale oil prices so high that mineral oils became profitable, and increased drilling dropped the costs even moore.

It is easy to be optimistic about tech or luck intervening to solve the energy problems, but as any safety officer should tell you, hope is not a plan.