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Thread: impact of climate changes on the spread of mosquitoes

  1. #1 impact of climate changes on the spread of mosquitoes 
    Forum Sophomore Hymenophyllum's Avatar
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    Is malaria going to spread thanks to the climate changes? Are there any studies related to this topic?


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  3. #2  
    Life-Size Nanoputian Flick Montana's Avatar
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    As the climate warms up, mosquitoes will be able to move into higher latitudes which were previously too cold for them to breed and that could lead to an increase in the spread of malaria.


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    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    There are certainly numerous studies on this topic. For example, a search on Google Scholar for "climate change" AND malaria AND spread, returns over 25,000 results. (Over 800 of them from this year.)

    You may wish to read this article, titled Impact of Climate Change on Global Malaria Distribution . Here is the abstract:

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution..
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  5. #4  
    Forum Radioactive Isotope sculptor's Avatar
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    the who:
    Transmission(of malaria) also depends on climatic conditions that may affect the number and survival of mosquitoes, such as rainfall patterns, temperature and humidity. In many places, transmission is seasonal, with the peak during and just after the rainy season...
    The trick would be in extrapolating likely weather from climate studies.
    I suspect that we've a way to go with the science before that becomes more feasible.
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  6. #5  
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    There's a number of regional studies which show the clear relationship between temperature interannual variability and malaria at the regional level as well.

    "Spatiotemporal data at a regional scale in highlands of Colombia and Ethiopia supplied an opportunity to examine how the spatial distribution of the disease changes with the interannual variability of temperature. We provide evidence for an increase in the altitude of malaria distribution in warmer years, which implies that climate change will, without mitigation, result in an increase of the malaria burden in the densely populated highlands of Africa and South America."
    Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia (Siraj et al, 2014)


    Altitudinal Changes in Malaria Incidence in Highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia
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