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Thread: The Solar Minimum Ushered in a Little Ice Age Last Time - Same Again this Time?

  1. #1 The Solar Minimum Ushered in a Little Ice Age Last Time - Same Again this Time? 
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    This was news to me until I saw a TV programme entitled "The Secret Life of the Sun". BBC Two - The Secret Life of the Sun. Apparently the Sun's sunspots are decreasing, corresponding with a decrease in solar radiation. When the sun's radiation reaches a sustained minimum for a prolonged period, it is called the Solar Minimum and last time we had a Solar Minimum, the River Thames froze over in London and there was a prolonged cold period.

    NASA defines the term as a cold period between AD 1550 and AD 1850 and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.[7] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the LIA suggested largely independent regional climate changes, rather than a globally synchronous increased glaciation. At most there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.
    Little Ice Age - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    My question is: with a Solar Minimum predicted soon and the Thermohaline Circulation predicted to slow down or halt quite soon, will it get chilly up the old kilt in the Northern hemisphere or is it a mere blip in the global warming scenario?

    Most climatologists warn that global warming will most likely slow down the thermohaline circulation cycle by 10-50%% within the next 100 years.2 A warming climate could speed up the melting of Arctic glaciers, diluting the salty surface water with a large amount of freshwater. In addition, a changing northern climate could mean more rain and snow over the region, diluting the surface water even further. A warmer planet could also mean a warmer Arctic climate, which would warm the surface waters relative to the cooler seawater below. If the surface water never gets denser than the water below it, it may not sink below the cool and salty seawater below, preventing the current from ever entering the “global ocean conveyor belt.”

    So, first of all, what exactly is thermohaline circulation? It’s a cycle that drives of what is commonly known as the “ocean’s conveyor belt”—a 1,600 year long process in which all ocean water will flow—twisting and turning around the globe, rising and falling in sea depth, and eventually returning to the same spot to start the cycle over again.3 Put simply, this “conveyor belt” runs because cold water is denser than warm water and salt water is denser than fresh water.
    Thermohaline Circulation | Global Warming | GreeniacsArticles


    The River Thames Frost Fair 1683 from
    The Frozen Thames and The Little Ice Age » The Anne Boleyn Files


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  3. #2  
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmythesaint View Post
    My question is: with a Solar Minimum predicted soon and the Thermohaline Circulation predicted to slow down or halt quite soon, will it get chilly up the old kilt in the Northern hemisphere or is it a mere blip in the global warming scenario?
    Most of the modeling suggest a "mere blip." The amount of radiative forcing near the surface from increasing green house gases is MUCH larger than the range of forcing from solar radiation during the little ice age, suggested at anytime, or even possible variability under astronomical models of our sun's output. The figure shows one recent study looking at the "what if" scenario you ask about. It buys us another decade or so.


    http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Pu...storf_2010.pdf


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    The UN is now saying the earth is cooling off.


    Link removed as possible source of malware. (Content has been adequately addressed by members in subsequent posts.)
    Last edited by John Galt; September 11th, 2013 at 01:16 AM. Reason: Remove link.
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    The commentary is depressing..only about half a dozen had enough critical reasoning skills to see the holes in the article. Things such as this whopper:

    And why not? As the Telegraph has noted, "There has been a 60% increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, the equivalent of almost a million square miles."
    Yes, that's right. The dire predictions of an iceless Arctic made in 2007 were wrong


    Failing to note of course that the prediction of iceless Arctic summers refers to the years 2100, not 2013, and one season most certainly doesn't constitute climate. And sadly this is an investor magazine where one might expect to find at least a basic level of intelligence and evidence based thinking...owe well.


    Last edited by Lynx_Fox; September 10th, 2013 at 10:16 PM.
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    Pineapple007, the article is pure climate science denial based bias and opinion, not a balanced assessment of science. With Arctic sea ice still well below average claims of recovery are not just premature, they are baseless. It is not so much that the Arctic has gained a lot of ice, but that the minimums in 2007 and 2012 were so extreme.

    Meanwhile global warming continues unabated. I presume the claims without references that there will be 'no warming'are not based on ocean heat content - where >90% of the energy gained from enhanced greenhouse goes and that shows no indication of pause or slow down - but based on the more variable global average surface temperatures. The latter have been going up and down as they should be expected to - but with the sum of ups exceeding the sum of downs. Even the so called 'no warming' for the past 15 (or 16)years relies on treating the failure of surface temperatures to go up during a period dominated by cooling la Nina's as proving something. What it actually shows is that underlying warming was strong enough that a la Nina dominated 15 year period was insufficient to make temperatures go down.

    Up, level off, up level off, each time at a higher plateau (for those who insist on breaking it up into discreet warming or cooling periods) is called global warming. For warming to have stopped it needs to go up, then down, up, then down, with the sum of the downs being equal to the sum of ups. Even during a period that could be expected to cause global surface temperatures to clearly drop, they didn't. It's still warming.
    Last edited by Ken Fabos; September 10th, 2013 at 11:46 PM. Reason: typo
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    Other easily found links to the deleted link about the IPPC report. I also wonder how reliable climate models are and if any of the models could actually arcuately hindcast ?

    Payoffs for states get Harry Reid to 60 votes - Chris Frates - POLITICO.com

    Global warming? No, actually we're cooling, claim scientists - Telegraph
    Global warming may be pausing for a period of global cooling
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    Take the link to compare any 2 dates for sea ice for the last 35 years.

    Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps

    ...................
    My guess has to do with the recent SSW event, and this part of Iowa's coldest winter on record.
    ................
    anyone have a good site for comparative arctic snowfall stats?
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    Quote Originally Posted by pineapple007 View Post
    Other easily found links to the deleted link about the IPPC report. I also wonder how reliable climate models are and if any of the models could actually arcuately hindcast ?
    They do ok, catching the general patterns of change and average temperatures going back the past few hundred years and even able to replicate the gross features going back millions of years. Where they have problems is catching some multi-decadal oscillations and the input about aerosols as well as observations get increasingly sketchy. Obviously even if they were perfect, they can't accurately forecast things like CO2 immisions with increased economic growth(e.g. current explosion in China), increased aerosols or clean up efforts from industry and farming, or possibility of short term but strong burps from super volcanoes etc. They arent' nearly as good at projecting regional and local changes to hydrology, or the extremes which often cause the most obvious punctuated disasters.
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