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Thread: So much for alarmism on climate.

  1. #1 So much for alarmism on climate. 
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    This is a report on a new paper from Tom Wigley and Ben Santer in Climate Dynamics. They now show clearly that the IPCC FAR and earlier reports have understated the anthropogenic contribution of greenhouse gases to increases in observed temperatures. This is probably an example of the sort of thing we can expect in IPCC stuff next year.

    I couldn't do any better than, or anything like as good a job as, the SkS team did on this, so here's the link. It's well worth following the step-by-step, from simple-to-more-complex process here. Wigley and Santer Find the IPCC is too Conservative on AGW (Well, at least I found it easy to skip backwards and forwards from one to another.)


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    So... we sit around with our hands in our pockets.

    Then, when it's too late, we cry out about why "they" didn't "Do something" about this mess.


    Humans.


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  4. #3  
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    Not really, I think we're about on the brink of people accepting a whole lot of stuff that some were resisting.

    2 examples. USA vehicle emissions standards. We know these should have been improved decades ago - but now the move has been made, most people will be OK with bringing the targets forward or making them stricter or both. Australia. Solar hot water heaters have been available for 25+ years - I know, I had one for that long. This house doesn't, even though the HW service was replaced not very many years ago. I see no good reason why any non-solar HWS should be available for domestic purposes in Australia. Presumably we'd need exceptions or exemptions or somesuch for badly placed homes or multi occupancy units.

    I suspect that the next big heatwave-fire-other catastrophe hitting Australia will start to penetrate the thick skulls of those who are forever reciting the "droughts and flooding rains" excerpt from MacKellar's poem. (I get sick of hearing my mum go on about that. On the other hand, she's got solar panels installed and she's absolutely mortified that Germany, Germany!, generates more solar power than Australia does. It's a disgrace!)

    The whole poem is here. http://www.dorotheamackellar.com.au/.../mycountry.htm
    Last edited by adelady; November 20th, 2012 at 12:19 AM. Reason: poem
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    "Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." Winston Churchill
    "nature is like a game of Jenga; you never know which brick you pull out will cause the whole stack to collapse" Lucy Cooke
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    a few days ago i saw a BBC programme on Hurricane Sandy, and one of the interesting things i picked up was that one of the reasons why it went from a tropical storm to the monster it became was that at the time the Gulf Stream was 3C warmer than usual

    how many more once-in-a-lifetime events do you need before you start accepting there's something about the climate that's different ?
    also, looking at the CO2 trends, it appears that agreements like the Kyoto one are not worth the paper they're written on : if anything the trend shows that "business as usual" now means an acceleration of the increase in CO2 content
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
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    Quote Originally Posted by marnixR View Post
    a few days ago i saw a BBC programme on Hurricane Sandy, and one of the interesting things i picked up was that one of the reasons why it went from a tropical storm to the monster it became was that at the time the Gulf Stream was 3C warmer than usual

    how many more once-in-a-lifetime events do you need before you start accepting there's something about the climate that's different ?
    Playing devils advocate: Tropical storms and Hurricanes are nothing new. Someone claiming that this particular one was a result of Global Warming simply won't impress many people.
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    at the time the Gulf Stream was 3C warmer than usual
    I'm not sure about the Gulf Stream but certainly there was a band of extremely warm water close in to the coast. The signal that it had an impact was that Sandy was slowing down and went down to storm rather than hurricane status out at sea- but as it approached the coast it strengthened again. If the waters had been colder that couldn't have happened, they would have sucked the energy out of the system.

    Being Australian it reminded me of the flood-bigger-than-France-and-Germany-combined a couple of years ago. The waters around the north of Queensland were also much hotter than usual at that time.
    "Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." Winston Churchill
    "nature is like a game of Jenga; you never know which brick you pull out will cause the whole stack to collapse" Lucy Cooke
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neverfly View Post
    [Playing devils advocate: Tropical storms and Hurricanes are nothing new. Someone claiming that this particular one was a result of Global Warming simply won't impress many people.
    granted that if you consider each event on its own there's not much you can say about it, but taken together the pattern may become more meaningful - why for instance was the Bermuda high (which usually diverts tropical storms) not in place, and why was there a high pressure system over Canada and Greenland which pushed the storm inland rather than allowing it to spend its force over the ocean ?

    again, how many more once-in-a-lifetime events do you need before you start accepting there's something about the climate that's different ?
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
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  9. #8  
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    very entertaining:
    from the linked article

    WS12 summarizes their results as follows.

    "Here, the probability that the model-estimated GHG component of warming is greater than the entire observed trend (i.e., not just greater than ‘‘most’’ of the observed warming) is about 93%. Using IPCC terminology, therefore, it is very likely that GHG-induced warming is greater than the observed warming. Our conclusion is considerably stronger than the original IPCC statement."

    Thus quite contrary to the myth that the IPCC is "alarmist", WS12 finds that the IPCC has been far too conservative in attributing the observed global warming to human greenhouse gas emissions. In fact their central estimate is that humans are responsible for 100% of the observed global warming for the 1950–2005 timeframe, with greenhouse gases responsible for 160%
    Reminds me of a couple Swedish scientists(peat bog studies) who believe that agw is saving us from cooling into another onslaught of glaciation.
    and also reminds me of (idiot?) sports coaches who want their players to give them 110% effort
    (If I were to write a check for 110% of my available funds, that could mean jail time here in Iowa)

    So,
    We have greenhouse gasses creating agw which is up to 160% of observed warming which would mean that agw (must be?)moderating other (lack of) forcings that would cool us--maybe send us into a deep freeze?

    or
    maybe'it's just peculiar phraseology, or methodology?
    Last edited by sculptor; November 20th, 2012 at 03:15 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neverfly View Post
    Playing devils advocate: Tropical storms and Hurricanes are nothing new. Someone claiming that this particular one was a result of Global Warming simply won't impress many people.
    It impressed me.

    The Gulf stream was probably warmed by New Yorks urban heat island effect...
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    Quote Originally Posted by question for you View Post
    The Gulf stream was probably warmed by New Yorks urban heat island effect...
    surely that must be the heat island effect from Atlantis ?
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    Quote Originally Posted by marnixR View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by question for you View Post
    The Gulf stream was probably warmed by New Yorks urban heat island effect...
    surely that must be the heat island effect from Atlantis ?
    No. Atlantis is relatively cooler due to it being primarily wet (evaporation effect) and offshore winds, a bit like San Francisco. It's been a few years since I visited (my gills healed over, need to get them re-pierced) but others have told me it's changed little.

    Quote Originally Posted by marnixR View Post
    granted that if you consider each event on its own there's not much you can say about it, but taken together the pattern may become more meaningful - why for instance was the Bermuda high (which usually diverts tropical storms) not in place, and why was there a high pressure system over Canada and Greenland which pushed the storm inland rather than allowing it to spend its force over the ocean ?
    Don't ask me; I devil advocated in order to encourage you to tell us more. Keep it coming...
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  13. #12  
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    We have greenhouse gasses creating agw which is up to 160% of observed warming which would mean that agw (must be?)moderating other (lack of) forcings that would cool us--maybe send us into a deep freeze?
    Not quite. Solar's been down-ish for a couple of decades. The biggest negative forcing is the 'brown cloud' from Asia. Aerosols, from dirty coal fired power plants mainly, are a seriously big negative forcing. When they replace those, even if the replacements are renewable power, there's a whole lot of warming we're going to see all in a lump - a bit like a magician whipping the cloth away to reveal something horrible instead of something amusing. It's always been there, we just haven't had to feel it.
    "Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." Winston Churchill
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  14. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    The biggest negative forcing is the 'brown cloud' from Asia.
    on the other hand, it could also encourage ice melt by making the ice darker when covered with dust
    i notice for instance that the arctic ice melt is most pronounced on the siberian side
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    the arctic ice melt is most pronounced on the siberian side
    Not at the beginning of the melt season it's not. This year the Laptev and the Barents Seas (above Scandinavia and the Russian border) were both near enough to bare of ice by June. And that's all down to the Gulf Stream/Atlantic waters.
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  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    This year the Laptev and the Barents Seas (above Scandinavia and the Russian border) were both near enough to bare of ice by June. And that's all down to the Gulf Stream/Atlantic waters.
    agreed, although according to Cryosphere Today it still is, and more so than even after 2007

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  17. #16  
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    (i forgot how much fun it was to spend a day at the nasa site)
    any idea why in '07 the bering/chukchi was more open
    while in 2012 it's the barents and kara
    (assume more powerfull gulf stream?)..........and then what?
    (eg: is flow from pacific declining?)
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  18. #17  
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    is flow from pacific declining?
    It's just that the flow from the Pacific is always much more restricted than the open door on the Atlantic side. The biggest difference is Fram Strait. That's the express train for ice flowing out of the Arctic. And it slides along without interrupting the inflows of warmer waters, whereas over in the Bering Strait there's no such large scale movement possible - it's a bit of an ice traffic jam rather than a smoothish flow of water one way, ice the other way.

    Apart from piccies and graphs of ice at University of Illinois, Cryosphere Today site, tracking sea surface temperatures - and anomalies - is always handy at the DMI-COI site.



    Though my first port of call is always this page https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/ because it has everything. Sea ice extent and area and volume from all the best known sources, sea surface and air temperatures, weather forecasts and other meteorological data, ice drift and ice thickness reports. There's also some non-official graphing of various features of Arctic ice. If that's not enough for you, go to the top of the page for long-term graphs or for regional data. When it's melt season you can also go to the web-cams to see how things look from the North Pole or the deck of a ship or some of the towns bordering the Arctic - not so interesting when it's all dark.
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