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Thread: Acrtic Ice Extent about to shatter new lows

  1. #1 Acrtic Ice Extent about to shatter new lows 
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    Ice extent is about to hit an historical low a month before its typical minimum. None of the climate/cryrosphere models predict this until mid to late 21 century.

    Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor



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  3. #2  
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    So it's about to be as little as 40,000,000 km2?

    And what does you think are the most likely causes for this pattern?


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    Could the cycle of the earths tilt have something to do with it? I think it could, I never heard that being given as an answer though.
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  5. #4  
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    Surely such a loss of ice will have a major impact on raising sea levels.
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    would be fairly easy to do the maths surely? it's sea ice anyway so most of it is still in the sea...
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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by question for you View Post
    So it's about to be as little as 40,000,000 km2?

    And what does you think are the most likely causes for this pattern?
    Er, global warming?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chris
    Surely such a loss of ice will have a major impact on raising sea levels.
    Some, but as QFY suggests, one should look at land-based masses of ice and snow to get a better idea of that, like glaciers.
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    Errr... I think global warming is more a symptom than a cause, yes?


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    Kalstar as your an administrator I need to ask you to do me a small favour. I tried to message you earlier but was unable... ould you message me so I can reply? please.
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  10. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by question for you View Post
    Errr... I think global warming is more a symptom than a cause, yes?


    Depends on how far you want to regress in the cause/effect chain.
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  11. #10  
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    Can container ships now transit the arctic ocean without having to follow an ice breaker?
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  12. #11  
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    The ice at the north pole floats, if that melts surely it will just be filling the volume that was displaced by the ice?

    Shouldn't we be more concerned with the on land glaciers which are not displacing water?
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  13. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nevyn View Post
    The ice at the north pole floats, if that melts surely it will just be filling the volume that was displaced by the ice?

    Shouldn't we be more concerned with the on land glaciers which are not displacing water?
    concerned?
    The eemian and holsteinian interglacials had higher sea levels(over 6 meters) and most of Greenland glaciers and likely all of west Antarctic ice and some east antarctic glaciers melted.

    Ok,
    if:
    that is normal
    and we add in anthropogenic warming
    Then:
    where will the sea shores be if/when those melt again

    extreem sports, who will be the first to windsurf the arctic?
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  14. #13  
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    I am not saying that the land glaciers aren't melting (which indeed they are), just that arctic ice is possibly not the best measurement as it is more of a surrogate outcome

    as for the windsurfing, I'll race you for it
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  15. #14  
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    And it's not just the sea ice that's disappearing. It's not just the glaciers that are melting. The snow is going too. The untold drama of Northern snow cover - Arctic Sea Ice

    This is a big issue. The loss of albedo for such a long period of the year is just going to speed this whole process up. For those who find visual information more accessible, here are the current graphs for Arctic sea ice extent, area, volume as well as sea surface temperatures and a whole lot of other stuff (that might be incomprehensible) about weather systems and the like.
    https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

    And here are the long term graphs. https://sites.google.com/site/arctic...raphs/longterm
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  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrisgorlitz View Post
    Surely such a loss of ice will have a major impact on raising sea levels.
    Nope, it's floating ice, so has no immediate effect on sea levels. However, as more sunlight is absorbed and the water heats up, it does expand, which does raise levels.
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    Global warming is a reality but, when it is sold as an extreme doomsday/apocalyptic, never seen before increase in temperature, most people laugh and then refuse to really educate themselves concerning global warming and the potential effects of global warming.
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  18. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by gonzales56 View Post
    Global warming is a reality but, when it is sold as an extreme doomsday/apocalyptic, never seen before increase in temperature, most people laugh and then refuse to really educate themselves concerning global warming and the potential effects of global warming.
    Distant in time, unimaginable, and complex all work against what people tend and want to believe.

    We are now at our lowest recorded levels of Arctic Ice Extent--it should be a big news story but it hardly getting any coverage in the US.
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  19. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post

    unimaginable, ... .
    Yet another worthles word.

    "What we have here is a failure to communicate."

    Sloppy use of language is something that we all slip into. Underestimating the abilities of those whom we would educate or convince is another failing.

    It accrues to the claimant to offer reasonably useable solutions along with warnings and pseudoscientific sound bites and headlines.
    Just saying "stop using carbon based energy" ain't gonna do nothing but confuse your audience and be dismissed as silly liberal tree hugging drivel.

    Long ago, I took a course in sales, and though that ain't something that works with my personality flaws, one phrase grabbed my attention and nestled into my memory:
    Find the worst or weakest part of your product(claim), and make that the selling point. Sell that point, and any arguement falls back upon your strengths.
    and, Make it personal for the other guy.

    I consider myself reasonably well and broadly educated. And even I have difficulty understanding the reasoning behind the claims and graphs presented by Hansen et.al. ...............Looking past the "gee whiz" hocky stick graphs and other crap, there may well be some validity to the cautionary (seemingly hysterical screamings) they seem to prefer, but they sure ain't selling it. Maybe they needed to take a few courses in rhetoric?

    Why use (only) a graph when a satelite photo communicates better?
    If it is really important to you, know your audience, and lead from in front.

    example: when Al was flying around in his 6 gallons per mile helicopter, or cruising along in his 6 miles per gallon limosine while telling people to conserve, he was both selling an idea and unselling it at the same time.

    ...........
    whither hence?
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  20. #19  
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    The extent of Arctic sea ice on Aug. 26, as measured by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager on the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft and analyzed by NASA and NSIDC scientists, was 1.58 million square miles (4.10 million square kilometers), or 27,000 square miles (70,000 square kilometers) below the Sept. 18, 2007, daily extent of 1.61 million square miles (4.17 million square kilometers).

    N_timeseries.jpg

    "The persistent loss of perennial ice cover -- ice that survives the melt season -- led to this year's record summertime retreat," said Joey Comiso, senior research scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "Unlike 2007, temperatures were not unusually warm in the Arctic this summer."

    The new record was reached before the end of the melt season in the Arctic, which usually takes place in mid- to late-September. Scientists expect to see an even larger loss of sea ice in the coming weeks.

    "In 2007, it was actually much warmer," Comiso said. "We are losing the thick component of the ice cover. And if you lose the thick component of the ice cover, the ice in the summer becomes very vulnerable."

    "By itself it's just a number, and occasionally records are going to get set," NSIDC research scientist Walt Meier said about the new record. "But in the context of what's happened in the last several years and throughout the satellite record, it's an indication that the Arctic sea ice cover is fundamentally changing."
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  21. #20  
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    Why use (only) a graph when a satelite photo communicates better?
    Clearly you've not tried to interpret too many satellite photos of Arctic ice. I take a special interest in this area and there are several people (mostly amateurs rather than professionals) who put a lot of time and effort into tracking the satellite imagery. So when they put up a post saying "Have a look at this! The ice in such and such an area is breaking up/ moving fast/ detached from the coast or whatever ..... " I click on the link and get something like this - Rapid Response - LANCE - Subsets

    Huh? Half the time I have trouble working out which pass of the satellite it's from so I can't tell Greenland from the Canadian Archipelago (or the Chukchi Sea from the Bering).

    Much better to look at an assembly of graphs and re-processed imagery, animated images are really helpful, that simplifies the picture so that people who don't spend hours every day poring over such things can actually get an idea of what's happening. ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss - Arctic Sea Ice
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  22. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    Why use (only) a graph when a satelite photo communicates better?
    Clearly you've not tried to interpret too many satellite photos of Arctic ice. I take a special interest in this area and there are several people (mostly amateurs rather than professionals) who put a lot of time and effort into tracking the satellite imagery. So when they put up a post saying "Have a look at this! The ice in such and such an area is breaking up/ moving fast/ detached from the coast or whatever ..... " I click on the link and get something like this - Rapid Response - LANCE - Subsets

    Huh? Half the time I have trouble working out which pass of the satellite it's from so I can't tell Greenland from the Canadian Archipelago (or the Chukchi Sea from the Bering).

    Much better to look at an assembly of graphs and re-processed imagery, animated images are really helpful, that simplifies the picture so that people who don't spend hours every day poring over such things can actually get an idea of what's happening. ASI 2012 update 10: (wh)at a loss - Arctic Sea Ice
    Actually, I have spent many hours/days/months pouring over aerial photographs(personal anecdote)(while in the army, one of my tasks was analysing sterio-photos from wingtip cameras from high altitude high speed flyovers---they took sterio photos and we used special lenses to see the combination in 3d---untill you learned how to relax your eyes and let the 3d happen, they could give you one helluva headache---they were intentionally obfuscatory, never telling us what it was that we were looking at nor why, and when I asked, the kurt reply was "need to know". All we were supposed to do was spot changes in the same place we looked at every day, then pass that information on to someone who may or may not have had a "need to know". Curious fellow that I am, I pissed off the guys in charge by constantly guessing at where it was what it was that I was looking at. No coordinates, and they wouldn't even tell us the direction the plane was flying. Which I figgured out by noting the timestamp, and direction of sun shadows, and I also likely came close to guessing the latitude and longitude. Shortly after I shared my guesses with one of the guys "in charge" who always showed up wearing civilian clothing, I was no longer invited to come and play with them.) These guys were intentionally obfuscatory, secrecy, national security, etc., and I played a different game.

    Your first link (I'm guessing) was accidentally obfuscatory, no map coordinates, no labels, no directional indicator, no time-stamp.

    As I have stated, If it is your intention to communicate something you think is important, then it is your responsibility to assure the communication is effective. Otherwise, Your audience will assume that you are playing a different game, get bored, and stop paying attention. And your half hearted attempt at communication will fail.
    (another personal anecdote) I have been building a 4 tiered 4 chambered greenhouse addition to my house and shop for several years now, from design to acquiring and milling and seasoning the raw bald cypress lumber to construction------I once told a helper to "sand these boards" after he had worked at that for several hours, I checked his progress, and was less than satisfied with the results, so we took a food break together as I pondered the problem. After the meal, I took him to the lumber stack, and asked him to feel a board that I had sanded and compare it to one that he had sanded, and then i said, what i meant to say was "make these boards a smooth as the ones that I had done, and this collection of sanding machines should help you in that task"-----problem solved, and his finished product was actually quite pleasing to th touch and my mind's intentions.

    If you seek a result from others, communication acumen matters!

    And, combinations of raw data and reprocessed imagery and graphs (with some direct commentary) may provide the best communication possible.
    Last edited by sculptor; August 28th, 2012 at 10:41 AM.
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  23. #22  
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    Your first link (I'm guessing) was accidentally obfuscatory, no map coordinates, no labels, no directional indicator, no time-stamp.
    Lets be real shall we. All the metadata for the picture is contained in the link to the left.
    "
    Arctic_r02c03 Subset - Terra metadata for 2012/239 (08/26/12)subset: Arctic_r02c03
    date: 2012239 (08/26/12)
    satellite: Terra
    projection: Stereographic
    projection center lon: +0.0000
    projection center lat: +90.0000
    standard parallel: +70.0000
    scale at natural origin: +0.969858730377
    UL lon: -45.0000
    UL lat: +76.6327
    UR lon: +0.0000
    UR lat: +80.5264
    LR lon: +0.0000
    LR lat: +71.1806
    LL lon: -26.5651
    LL lat: +69.0061
    UL easting (km): -1024.0000
    UL northing (km): -1024.0000
    ellipsoid: Sphere
    Earth radius (km): 6371.007181

    5 minute swath data used for this image:
    09:50 UTC
    09:55 UTC
    11:30 UTC
    11:35 UTC
    13:10 UTC
    14:45 UTC
    14:50 UTC
    16:25 UTC
    18:05 UTC"


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  24. #23  
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    thanx lynx for the links curiously enough when i was using ie no offer of that information appeared, and try as i might I could not find the information.thenI rebooted, and then i clicked on a link in the sidebar, which opened in google chrome, and when i came here from that, i clicked on the same link adelady had provided and found the information you posted right in the upper left corner as you had said.With me, it seems, it ain't a matter of getting "real" (though I ain't sure exactly what that means), it seems to be a matter of choosing the right browser through dumb luck, or getting educatedLet's assume that i prefer ie, how then, could i find that information?meanwhile, even though simple things like logging in seem to be completely different in google chrome, and the fonts seem a different size, and I suspect that using this browser means a whole new learning curve, and finding my way to sites which I have saved in ie--------- ------confusedly yours, and thanx again, rod... .........one more thing,how do i increase the size of the words displayed in google chrome?and stop the words from smooshing together when i press submitwhat browser do you use?
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