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Thread: global temperature change with ENSO, solar cycles and volcanic eruptions removed?

  1. #1 global temperature change with ENSO, solar cycles and volcanic eruptions removed? 
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    One of the challenges of looking at the global temperature changes is the natural year-to-year variability is larger than decade trends mostly due to three sources: ENSO, solar cycles and volcanic eruptions.

    An interesting paper has come out with examines the surface land, ocean and satellite data over the past 35 years remove those variables using statistical methods and than compare the temperature trends of the remainders. They trends are consistent across the data sets and show a steady rise. It's a pretty elegant way to look at the data.

    Here's an article for the general public about the paper:
    The Real Global Warming Signal | Open Mind

    Here's the abstract of the paper. Most large libraries carry the journal.
    IOPscience - Global temperature evolution 1979



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  3. #2  
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    This is a lovely piece of work. I remember seeing the first 'drafts' at Open Mind when one of the authors was first thinking out loud about this.

    A brilliant statistician. Nice to see the occasional blog entry finishing up as published work in a journal. Has to be outstanding in the first place, but I'm sure there are a few others that could succeed with appropriate collaboration.


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  4. #3  
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    Tamino's "Open Mind" blog is one I check on regularly and particularly recall the earlier posts there on removing the known climate variables like ENSO. It was an irritant to me to have climate science deniers consistently overlook known natural phenomena in order to convince people their cherry picked points showed rising temperatures were natural phenomena. Tamino's efforts were impressive and important and gave me a useful bit of truth to slap the deniers around with; to see those ideas make it through to peer-reviewed publication... fantastic!

    The very irrationality of the climate denial message is, IMO, it's true weakness. This is one arrow that hits that chink in the denier armour dead centre! Go Tamino! Go Science!
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    Lynx Fox - I clicked on the PDF link in the IOP science site and the Foster and Rahmstorf paper came up in full. No paywall.
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