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Thread: Is possible to predict the earthquakes?

  1. #1 Is possible to predict the earthquakes? 
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    HelloMy name is Borja and i am an italian's user, so sorry for my bad english.I study the earthquakes (and if possible to predict) since later 2010.I have build a website where there are my project.I think that in the near future will be possible to predict them....i think that the reason (for a big quake) is the moon (and others planets) with its tidal wave..Subside the energy for a quake depending by the sun (and gamma ray).In the website there are 2 maps where there are my studies. Now (in this map) is illustrate only:_1) the probability to have an earthquake in seismic territory_2) the probability to have a big earthquake in the world.So... only probabilty.To see this maps is need sign up a the website and to accept "terms and conditions" write in italian language. The website is :
    www. mapsism .com

    Thank you for attention
    And sorry for my english....Bye bye


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    I suggest you to read an interesting article, about the link (or connection) between the volcanos and the climate:

    www. mapsism.com/vulcani_clima


    p.s. But is impossible to insert the url?


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  4. #3  
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    No urls until you have a few more posts to your credit.
    "Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." Winston Churchill
    "nature is like a game of Jenga; you never know which brick you pull out will cause the whole stack to collapse" Lucy Cooke
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    Quote Originally Posted by adelady View Post
    No urls until you have a few more posts to your credit.
    Ahhhh ok thank you mod
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    SEARCH your seismic region in this page! And than yuo can read the description of this area: Trova la tua Region ! | Mapsism
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  7. #6  
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    Previous studies to find a link between tidal effects of the moon as a trigger for earthquakes have been negative. Why do you continue to think there is a link?
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  8. #7  
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    No apology necessary. I only wish I could speak Italian, as my ancestors could. Ciao
    Quote Originally Posted by Borja View Post
    HelloMy name is Borja and i am an italian's user, so sorry for my bad english.I study the earthquakes (and if possible to predict) since later 2010.I have build a website where there are my project.I think that in the near future will be possible to predict them....i think that the reason (for a big quake) is the moon (and others planets) with its tidal wave..Subside the energy for a quake depending by the sun (and gamma ray).In the website there are 2 maps where there are my studies. Now (in this map) is illustrate only:_1) the probability to have an earthquake in seismic territory_2) the probability to have a big earthquake in the world.So... only probabilty.To see this maps is need sign up a the website and to accept "terms and conditions" write in italian language. The website is :
    www. mapsism .com

    Thank you for attention
    And sorry for my english....Bye bye
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    ??
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    Previous studies to find a link between tidal effects of the moon as a trigger for earthquakes have been negative. Why do you continue to think there is a link?
    Why i see that some quakes expected near tidal (circle) moon.For example:see the map in the home in the website.The blue cirle is moon tidal.The quake expected on the bounder's circle...this is a link. If yuo see the maps about earthquake's predictions you can see that 20-40% of quakes are predicts by the system. True..
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    whereas i have modify the list of earthquakes Is more beautiful no?Mapsism
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    i think earthquakes will always be difficult to predict. it will be very hard to mesaure the force tension on two adjacent plates, subducting or transverse. and even if tension of plate could be measured accurately it will be hard to determine the 'breaking' point. no two places on plate boundaries are the same. even only hundreds of meters apart the plate interactions will not be the same. then there are the earthquakes that occur at places other than plate boundaries. a very uncertain science. but it is a science that should be studied. a worthyy endeavour for sure
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  13. #12  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Borja View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by John Galt View Post
    Previous studies to find a link between tidal effects of the moon as a trigger for earthquakes have been negative. Why do you continue to think there is a link?
    Why i see that some quakes expected near tidal (circle) moon.For example:see the map in the home in the website.The blue cirle is moon tidal.The quake expected on the bounder's circle...this is a link. If yuo see the maps about earthquake's predictions you can see that 20-40% of quakes are predicts by the system. True..
    I do not understand what you mean by the phrase "moon tidal". Can you explain it please.
    The Earth rotates - so that circle's boundary will cover a large area in 24 hours.
    Plenty of earthquakes occur far from the boundary in both time and space.
    You do not seem to be predicting anything with this method.
    Perhaps I do not fully understand what you are trying to say.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Borja View Post
    Why i see that some quakes expected near tidal (circle) moon..
    Confirmation bias.
    Bias di conferma - Wikipedia

    For example:see the map in the home in the website.The blue cirle is moon tidal.The quake expected on the bounder's circle...this is a link. If yuo see the maps about earthquake's predictions you can see that 20-40% of quakes are predicts by the system.
    I looked at your map. There appears to be no correlation between the moon and earthquakes.

    Please provide a full statistical analysis, demonstrating a correlation that is greater than chance.

    True.
    Not convinced. Sorry.
    Without wishing to overstate my case, everything in the observable universe definitely has its origins in Northamptonshire -- Alan Moore
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    The seismic region of earthquake in chile (Mw 8.2) is this:Region 75 | Mapsism
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    Quote Originally Posted by Borja View Post
    The seismic region of earthquake in chile (Mw 8.2) is this:Region 75 | Mapsism
    There is no point cherry picking individual events that fit your idea. You need to do an analysis of all earthquakes, at all times to see if there is a statistically significant correlation between earthquakes and the position of the moon. (There isn't.)
    Without wishing to overstate my case, everything in the observable universe definitely has its origins in Northamptonshire -- Alan Moore
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    Many such studies have been undertaken and a 'No Result' is clear. That in ANY regional study no correlation of tidal times with regard to earthquake triggering has been found. A superMoon rises and sets and a 'King tidal motion detected.. but with no earthquake event.. no link is found. I will grant you a logical conclusion seems apparent as tidal effect ought to be a factor observable. No such fact has been found as anything but random chance.
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    Theories regarding Earthquakes..

    I have studied, and studied and looked for and not found.. that for which I wanted to find.. That would for most be sufficient to suggest I am wrong or just barking mad.. The later being the more palatable option..
    ~ We can not with any certainty make a prediction found to be true of impending earthquakes. The Moon does flex the crustal plates.. Known. That as much as 1.5 to 3 metres of movement caused by tidal actions.. Known.
    That at this time Venus, the Sun, Jupiter, Saturn and Mars and our biggest pull..The Moon are all in the same quarter of our sky.. Oh well that might be stretching a fact a little.. Then the same third of the elliptic plain contains all of those gravity items..
    ~ Today we are up to three quakes of significance around the Pacific rim.. ( as many as 99 if you include all above 3.5 mag..) A 6.6 near the kermadec Islands, a 6.0 near Shazuoka Japan, and a Larger 7.2 on the Alaskan coast..
    " Does, not can. One earthquake trigger another ? " There was only 90 mins between two of these.. and with a sub wave of around 45 mins.. ( wave travel time ) that's only a 40 min interval.
    ~ Am I mad, or onto something ?

    I have been guilty of not letting this go.. It's a subject that I find hard to just turn away from.. I AM well aware it is not supported by science as found.. but yet...? My interest in this subject is not normal.. that I am paranoid is a obvious joke..
    Please feel free to rip me to bits...
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  19. #18  
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    Modulation of Tremor Amplitudes by Tidal Stresses in Cascadia

    In this case we have a "clockwork" slip every 14 months, so it's easy to check against the out of sync tides.

    The 1.5 hour lag makes sense (to my layman's thinking) because while the tidal force itself is uniform throughout the earth, the weight of water following the tide is not. It's unbalanced. And this region has relatively high sea tides.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pong View Post
    Modulation of Tremor Amplitudes by Tidal Stresses in Cascadia

    In this case we have a "clockwork" slip every 14 months, so it's easy to check against the out of sync tides.

    The 1.5 hour lag makes sense (to my layman's thinking) because while the tidal force itself is uniform throughout the earth, the weight of water following the tide is not. It's unbalanced. And this region has relatively high sea tides.
    ~ Thanks Pong; good link.
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    Pong, You are not making the common error of thinking that the tidal force only affects the water, are you? Only the water moves noticably but lunar gravity trys to deform everything. That it does not have a noticible effect on earthquakes is remarkable and needs explanation. I can't think of any explanation for it. It would seem only logical that there would be a connection between tidal forces and earthquakes but none seems to have been demonstrated. A 20% correlation does not seem like a significant one.


    Has that assumption about the weight of the water been experimentally verified? Does the pressure on a pressure guage located in deep ocen actually change with the tides? It would seem to me that the larger amount of water present at high tide would weigh the same as the smaller amount present at low tide because what ocean tides demonstrate is change in the force of gravity. There is more mass but weight is constant.
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  22. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sealeaf View Post
    Pong, You are not making the common error of thinking that the tidal force only affects the water, are you? Only the water moves noticably but lunar gravity trys to deform everything. That it does not have a noticible effect on earthquakes is remarkable and needs explanation. I can't think of any explanation for it. It would seem only logical that there would be a connection between tidal forces and earthquakes but none seems to have been demonstrated. A 20% correlation does not seem like a significant one.


    Has that assumption about the weight of the water been experimentally verified? Does the pressure on a pressure guage located in deep ocen actually change with the tides? It would seem to me that the larger amount of water present at high tide would weigh the same as the smaller amount present at low tide because what ocean tides demonstrate is change in the force of gravity. There is more mass but weight is constant.
    Yeah, the moon's gravity gently affects the sea, the crust, and everything below too. What is more violent, is the water sloshing around after the moon's gravity. The lag between lunar tide and sea tide is normally at least 1hr, due to friction and topography. So what you said about water pressure on the seabed would be true if only water moved instantly to follow the moon.

    I am totally speculating that a mere 5m of water is significant. But then why do we see a correlation for the Pacific Northwest - maybe Chile - but not, like, our Italian poster's Mediterranean?
    A pong by any other name is still a pong. -williampinn
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  23. #22  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pong View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sealeaf View Post
    Pong, You are not making the common error of thinking that the tidal force only affects the water, are you? Only the water moves noticably but lunar gravity trys to deform everything. That it does not have a noticible effect on earthquakes is remarkable and needs explanation. I can't think of any explanation for it. It would seem only logical that there would be a connection between tidal forces and earthquakes but none seems to have been demonstrated. A 20% correlation does not seem like a significant one.


    Has that assumption about the weight of the water been experimentally verified? Does the pressure on a pressure guage located in deep ocen actually change with the tides? It would seem to me that the larger amount of water present at high tide would weigh the same as the smaller amount present at low tide because what ocean tides demonstrate is change in the force of gravity. There is more mass but weight is constant.
    Yeah, the moon's gravity gently affects the sea, the crust, and everything below too. What is more violent, is the water sloshing around after the moon's gravity. The lag between lunar tide and sea tide is normally at least 1hr, due to friction and topography. So what you said about water pressure on the seabed would be true if only water moved instantly to follow the moon.

    I am totally speculating that a mere 5m of water is significant. But then why do we see a correlation for the Pacific Northwest - maybe Chile - but not, like, our Italian poster's Mediterranean?
    But…..surely the pressure exerted by 5m of water is only half an atmosphere.

    By contrast if we take a rock density of 5gm/cc, you get 5 atm for each 10m of depth. Given that most earthquakes occur at 50km depth or more, they are taking place in a zone where the ambient pressure must be of the order of 500 x 50 = 25,000 atm, no doubt with considerable variations due to tectonic stress.

    Do we really think that 0.5 atm more or less is going to have any effect?
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  24. #23  
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    I have lived through earthquakes all my life. Largest was 7.9 ....some 6.8's were worse than the 7.9.

    THey never seemed to be predictable....

    When the next volcano here erupts.....we'll get a humdinger...

    the 6.8 then 6.6 after shock ten minutes later were the most brutal ever. lasted about 45 plus second....earthquakes generally don't scare me but this one was SO violent. Cupboards flinging open...plates crashing to the floor..caught lamps..pantry on the floor...wine case and broken wine bottle everywhere....water heater barely hanging on the wall....truck inches from car..
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    Quote Originally Posted by babe View Post
    I have lived through earthquakes all my life. Largest was 7.9 ....some 6.8's were worse than the 7.9.

    THey never seemed to be predictable....

    When the next volcano here erupts.....we'll get a humdinger...

    the 6.8 then 6.6 after shock ten minutes later were the most brutal ever. lasted about 45 plus second....earthquakes generally don't scare me but this one was SO violent. Cupboards flinging open...plates crashing to the floor..caught lamps..pantry on the floor...wine case and broken wine bottle everywhere....water heater barely hanging on the wall....truck inches from car..
    Were they Californian earthquakes babe?
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  26. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by babe View Post
    I have lived through earthquakes all my life. Largest was 7.9 ....some 6.8's were worse than the 7.9.

    THey never seemed to be predictable....

    When the next volcano here erupts.....we'll get a humdinger...

    the 6.8 then 6.6 after shock ten minutes later were the most brutal ever. lasted about 45 plus second....earthquakes generally don't scare me but this one was SO violent. Cupboards flinging open...plates crashing to the floor..caught lamps..pantry on the floor...wine case and broken wine bottle everywhere....water heater barely hanging on the wall....truck inches from car..
    Were they Californian earthquakes babe?
    ~ and quids on it's The Hawaiian Islands we are talking of.. as Babe does live there.. but * and I can not recall a 7.9 on the mainland..
    Our friend is traveling some today.. and will clear this for you Bob on her return to the 'net'...
    I am home and 'resting..~ back to work on Sunday.. the am shifts are good,, you all good ?
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  27. #26  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Robittybob1 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by babe View Post
    I have lived through earthquakes all my life. Largest was 7.9 ....some 6.8's were worse than the 7.9.

    THey never seemed to be predictable....

    When the next volcano here erupts.....we'll get a humdinger...

    the 6.8 then 6.6 after shock ten minutes later were the most brutal ever. lasted about 45 plus second....earthquakes generally don't scare me but this one was SO violent. Cupboards flinging open...plates crashing to the floor..caught lamps..pantry on the floor...wine case and broken wine bottle everywhere....water heater barely hanging on the wall....truck inches from car..
    Were they Californian earthquakes babe?
    Hawai'i and California.....largest was 7.9 worse was 6.8
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  28. #27  
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    simply no coz of geology isnt good
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  29. #28  
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    They are monitoring and are coming closer to predictions.
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  30. #29  
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    Sometimes it is easy to forget the earth is not stationary when thinking about the tidal forces. The Earth and moon form a rotating system with the center of mass between their individual centers of mass. This means there are inertial effects in addition to the gravitational effects.
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  31. #30  
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    Yes dan hunter but we have so many scientists measuring things in Hawa'i and we kind of think Mauna Loa is about to blow
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  32. #31  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exchemist View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Pong View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sealeaf View Post
    Pong, You are not making the common error of thinking that the tidal force only affects the water, are you? Only the water moves noticably but lunar gravity trys to deform everything. That it does not have a noticible effect on earthquakes is remarkable and needs explanation. I can't think of any explanation for it. It would seem only logical that there would be a connection between tidal forces and earthquakes but none seems to have been demonstrated. A 20% correlation does not seem like a significant one.


    Has that assumption about the weight of the water been experimentally verified? Does the pressure on a pressure guage located in deep ocen actually change with the tides? It would seem to me that the larger amount of water present at high tide would weigh the same as the smaller amount present at low tide because what ocean tides demonstrate is change in the force of gravity. There is more mass but weight is constant.
    Yeah, the moon's gravity gently affects the sea, the crust, and everything below too. What is more violent, is the water sloshing around after the moon's gravity. The lag between lunar tide and sea tide is normally at least 1hr, due to friction and topography. So what you said about water pressure on the seabed would be true if only water moved instantly to follow the moon.

    I am totally speculating that a mere 5m of water is significant. But then why do we see a correlation for the Pacific Northwest - maybe Chile - but not, like, our Italian poster's Mediterranean?
    But…..surely the pressure exerted by 5m of water is only half an atmosphere.

    By contrast if we take a rock density of 5gm/cc, you get 5 atm for each 10m of depth. Given that most earthquakes occur at 50km depth or more, they are taking place in a zone where the ambient pressure must be of the order of 500 x 50 = 25,000 atm, no doubt with considerable variations due to tectonic stress.

    Do we really think that 0.5 atm more or less is going to have any effect?
    The shifting weight of water should be insignificant. Still we wonder why tide affects seismic data for at least one part of the Pacific Rim but not Italy. Perhaps it's the nature of the fault... suppose what I said about the unbalanced lag of liquid following the tide is true not just for oceans but for molten rock. Then what happens when this liquid must flow around a solid obstacle like a plate subduction?
    A pong by any other name is still a pong. -williampinn
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