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Thread: earths oil reservs

  1. #1 earths oil reservs 
    Forum Senior miomaz's Avatar
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    I've been ponedering these questions for a while now.

    1.When will the earths oil reservs be used up?

    2.How much will oil be worth in 5/10/15/20/30/40 years?(per gallon/liter)

    3.What will, the oil problem have an effect on the worlds trading tystem?

    thanks for you're time.


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  3. #2 Re: earths oil reserves 
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    Quote Originally Posted by miomaz
    I've been ponedering these questions for a while now.

    1.When will the earths oil reservs be used up?

    2.How much will oil be worth in 5/10/15/20/30/40 years?(per gallon/liter)

    3.What will, the oil problem have an effect on the worlds trading tystem?

    thanks for you're time.
    your questions are all dependent of many factors but my guess....

    1- what we expect to find, have found and the oil sands, with an ave. 2-3% annual increase in world usage. 150 to 300 years.

    2- disregard fluctuations from brokers, oil producers and events. i understand barrels better...55 gal per and can produce 47 gal. gas, diesel or heating oil.

    progressively higher from 75 in ten years to about 150 in 40 years.
    remember though, gasoline cost is about after at the pump is now 1.50 per gal and taxes (fed-state) take it to 2.00 to 3.00 depending on the state. in Europe the cost is also 1.50 per gal or 70.00 per usable barrel.
    however the pump price is 5 to 7.00 to a comparable gallon as the taxes are much higher.

    3 world trade should have little effect from cost of transport or the economic effects of fuel cost. larger more efficient ships hit the market daily and shipping 3 or 4 times the quantity has actually reduced some cost. the world trade is much more dependent on value of a nations currency. the yen, euro, peso, dollar and so on. here the cost of goods from one place can fluctuate 10% in a given day. TODAY being that day as the dollar dropped and all other increased.


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    Forum Senior miomaz's Avatar
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    what we expect to find, have found and the oil sands, with an ave. 2-3% annual increase in world usage. 150 to 300 years.
    Do you mean that we will still have oil in 150-300 years?? Negetive. The estimated time for earths oil reservers to be used up is 40-60 years from 2005. So around 2050 we wont have any oil my estimated $per liter would be
    (2040) 560$ per gallon.

    It seems that already in 2030 we will have problems with the cost of the oil costs around 10$ pro gallon.

    reffering to the world market:


    the oil company is one of the biggest markets today. 150$ billion (calculated to todays value per gallon) of oil is still to be sold and used. All carcompanys of the wold have been bribed because of oil. It would have a great effect on the economy, exporting for japan and china would be almost impossible, and since there would be no oil I guess they will have a breakdown for a few years. America would then have problems, becaues of the missing imports, aswell as the rest of europe. Poorer countrys would then be the only contery who would be able to feed them selves.


    ofcourse this will mostprobaly never happen(~10%), I beleve that we will use electro-motors.
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    not true; we have what i suggested. shale or oil sand, is plentiful and has an estimated 100 years supply alone. new finds in the gulf alone add 20 years. current supply or that being drilled as we talk is 30-40 years supply. what is expected to be found is questionable only because it could far exceed any current expectations.

    your 10.00 per gallon would be 550.00 per barrel. synthetic gas or oil can be achieved well below this figure, this only limited by number of sea water available. if you pay the price synthetic oil for your engine is currently available.

    there are other factors at that price. the auto can be made to perform at ridiculously high performance and cost or what the buyer would pay, limits the process. 300. to a 400.00 tank fill ups, will take care of that problem.

    i remind you tax rates per gallon in Europe are 2 to 300% the actual price of the at pump, price. 10.00 gallon gas may be in 2030 and likely, but not because of oil cost. its already 7 in places but the ave. cost per is 1.50 worldwide.

    no one is bribing the auto manufactures to produce certain type cars. these are business people and produce what they feel will sell. electric and other fuel type vehicles are on the market NOW and have been for many years. some major inter city carriers including postal services already use electric-battery vehicles and many use ethanol or propane.
    you can also get any of these vehicles for a price. your problem may be filling up with something or charging which require a rather complex process to get by local regulations.

    your economic views are further out of line. since i don't feel we have a problem to start with, discussing a world wide economic depression would be ill advised. i am discouraged only in that somehow you have been so mis-lead and worried how many more could be...
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    On the other hand, being in the fourth decade of working in the oil industry and having some understanding of nature of petreoleum reserves from my geolgogical background, miomaz may be very correct to be concerned.
    Your own analysis appears simplistic in the extreme and based upon many optimistic assumptions. A full refutation would take far more time than I have available at present. I will simply state this - provide the documented evidence for your claim that recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico have added 20 years to supply. (I presume you mean the US supply requirement.)
    I intend to demonstrate, by proving this claim is invalid, that all your claims in relation to oil consumption, discovery, production and pricing are suspect.
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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    On the other hand, being in the fourth decade of working in the oil industry and having some understanding of nature of petreoleum reserves from my geolgogical background, miomaz may be very correct to be concerned.
    Your own analysis appears simplistic in the extreme and based upon many optimistic assumptions. A full refutation would take far more time than I have available at present. I will simply state this - provide the documented evidence for your claim that recent discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico have added 20 years to supply. (I presume you mean the US supply requirement.)
    I intend to demonstrate, by proving this claim is invalid, that all your claims in relation to oil consumption, discovery, production and pricing are suspect.
    i would bow to your experience if my answer was intended to demonstrate anything other than my view from materials read from the oil companies and their literature i receive almost daily. the author of this thread is in a near panic state, totally unjustified and has been ill advised.

    not even mentioned in my response was the work being done in nanotech or fuels from coal or natural gas. all these will reduce oil consumption in general and my 2-3% increased consumption may be a little high in ten years. even if China and India continue to grow economically the world consumption should hold near steady.

    of course US oil needs come primarily from sweet oil and the gulf produces this type. the recent finds and those known, not being drilled account for much more than 20 year supply. that found in the deep water gulf is thought to be part of a larger field. the area between Florida and Cube, whomever drills it, is also quite large. i feel sure you know this. this allows the cheaper thick oil to find refineries that can totally supply other places and not ship to the US.

    the price per barrel today has a 20.00 premium built in and you can pick a reason. all the majors still hold to 40.00 or less values of there in inventories. my projected prices are for the cost of oil to the refinery. the cost from there are subject to many things including suggested taxes but also cost of everything from permits to labor.

    as for the effects on a world economy, oil from 30 to 75.00 had little and over the years going to 150.00 should have no noticeable influence.

    there are factors no one has mentioned that could change the whole scenario. instability with in the major oil producing nations, even US politics, Russia, Mexico, Venezuela or the OPEC nations. any one taken out of the mix, would change everything.
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    oil sands is an alternative fuel, it produces greenhouse gas.
    Eventhough it has the same effect as oil (damaging the ozone-layer) it is still an alternative fuel and wasn't named in my post (oil and sand oil is not the same thing).

    even if China and India continue to grow economically the world consumption should hold near steady.
    why.


    as for the effects on a world economy, oil from 30 to 75.00 had little and over the years going to 150.00 should have no noticeable influence.
    Another assumption?

    ---
    (edit - jeremyhfht - link was eating some of the page coding. Copy and paste it to view it)
    http://www.schoolscience.co.uk/content/4/chemistry
    /petroleum/knowl/4/2index.htm?last.html

    Country 2003 proved reserves
    (billion barrels)
    Saudi Arabia 261.7
    Iraq 115.0
    Iran 100.1
    Kuwait 98.9
    United Arab Emirates 63.0
    Russia 58.8
    Venezuela 53.1
    Nigeria 32.0
    Libya 30.0
    China 23.7

    according to this website (the upper content is very likely to be true)
    we will run out of oil in 40 years if we do not find any more oil.
    If you want to do it by facts, and not by assumptions that are exacly as possible has them not to be, It seem that our oil reservs will indeed be used up in 40 years.
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  9. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by miomaz
    according to this website we will run out of oil in 40 years if we do not find any more oil.
    Please note that we are discovering more oil all the time. The problem is that in many countries we are producing more oil than we are finding. This is the concept of peak oil.
    The US reached that point in 1972 or '73.(as predicted by Hubbert King in 1951) The world will reach that point somewhere in the next five to fifty years. If we do not properly prepare for that (and we decidedly are not) we will suffer large economic consequences.
    I remain unenthused by the prospects of economic extraction of hydrocarbons from oil shales and tar sands. I do have some hopes for methane hydrate recovery. That would open up resources possibly ten times the size of all recoverable oil reserves ever. We would then need only a proper program of carbon sequestration to avoid the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide.
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  10. #9  
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    miomiz;

    the oil sands are not figure into the reserves or how much is available or is it an alternative fuel (it is real oil). the final product, before refining is very thick and requires special refining not available in the US. Canada is nearing 100% dependence or usage of that product. some of this refined product is shipped into the US. estimates range from 50 to 150 year supply from this source. the areas are massive where this is found in both the western Canadian and US nations. some has been found in other world locations as well.

    i have seen your charts and many others, all showing a variety of "peak oil" and the one you refer to says this may be reached in 40 years. this is also next to a few other indicating 60-80 years to peak, not run out. these figures do not include much that has been found, expected to be found or even that very little of the earth has been explored for oil. w/o this, even your site, figured 100 year supply. add in the sands and what i have suggested, you get 200-300 year supply.

    your mention of "global warming" is a different subject. ozone, is affected by the sun- nothing mankind does can help this issue. co2, is a problem created by natural causes primarily from the life on earths breathing and dieing, including plant life. nature produces 94-95% and actions of man about 6%. a good puff from a volcano will produce all mans weekly efforts in an hour. an ox driven cart traveling 10 miles in China will create more pounds of co2, then a car traveling 1000 miles with gasoline. in fact if there are four people in the car, they will out produce the car...

    yes, speculation must be involved when your trying to estimate things 40 years down the road. so much can happen as i have suggested. my point however is what i speculate should be, if no major problem pops up.
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  11. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    Quote Originally Posted by miomaz
    according to this website we will run out of oil in 40 years if we do not find any more oil.
    Please note that we are discovering more oil all the time. The problem is that in many countries we are producing more oil than we are finding. This is the concept of peak oil.
    The US reached that point in 1972 or '73.(as predicted by Hubbert King in 1951) The world will reach that point somewhere in the next five to fifty years. If we do not properly prepare for that (and we decidedly are not) we will suffer large economic consequences.
    I remain unenthused by the prospects of economic extraction of hydrocarbons from oil shales and tar sands. I do have some hopes for methane hydrate recovery. That would open up resources possibly ten times the size of all recoverable oil reserves ever. We would then need only a proper program of carbon sequestration to avoid the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide.
    the refining capacity of the world is limited. its my understanding the two planned for S.Arabia will dwarf anything in the US and there not small. (in capacity). Haliburton-BP and others are working on additional refineries in Russia, China and India, that i know of and as these come on line, much of that problem will dissolve.

    my thoughts on the oil sands, include the making of some very clean and usable land. since they have it in cost/productive mode why stop it. i have no knowledge of the recovery methods mentioned.

    i also agree on the emission question, just not for GH reasons. the progress made over the years is remarkable and gets very little credit.
    industry in the US, including yours has done a lot over the years for the worlds environment. you know that a good deal more can be done and the only question is just what limits people will pay for the known and expensive technology. their interest seem to be satellite radio, cup holders and directions.
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  12. #11  
    Forum Senior miomaz's Avatar
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    So when will the greenhouse effect kick in?
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    the greenhouse effect is to some degree is what keeps us warm now. its already happening but the degree to which is harmful is the issue and then harmfully to what. increasing co2, man made or naturally will cause temperatures to rise, increasing natures response to more cooling action (storms-rain-snow) bringing the results back down. the gains or losses of these effects have gone on since earth formed and only during a reasonably short period have things been conducive for oxygen breathing land mammals to exist.

    plant life can do quite well with little oxygen or even none, but they do give off oxygen. carbon monoxide is toxic to organic life and oxygen is toxic to plant life or inorganic. another natural give and take with in nature.

    the warmest places on earth with a water source are filled with thick, thriving plant life that feeds oxygen into the atmosphere. these places feed very little co2, since they rarely burn and only in death do they furnish any co2 what so ever. some forest on the other hand, though producers of oxygen feed a great deal of co2 when on fire (natural cleaning process).
    natures give and take.

    as people we are just part of the process. even if we went around the world burning everything and dumped all the co2 possible into the atmosphere as we died off, nature would be reacting and the time required to clean this up is not hundreds of years (as told) and some life forms would survive. obviously we can't do this but it could happen tomorrow or some thing like it, if a good size asteroid hit earth, especially if it set off a few volcanoes. in this case the oxygen supply or plants life would die off and take some time to reform, which it has done a few times long ago.
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    I think that an even more important question is what will be the effect of removing all of the oil on the earth? Have scientists thought about this? Have you thought about this - i'm sure you have . Obviously, one effect is that by burning it, the co2 emissions raise the temperature of our world. But what will be the effect of there just being no more of it in the earth. To me, it seems like the same thing as draining a human body of all it's blood and fluids. The joints don't have anything to oil them so that they move smoothly...instead the cringe and grind together. Could it mean more earthquakes or will the earth do more violent things once we've robbed her of her precious fluids? Or - for those of you with no imagination at all - will nothing happen except we won't be able to drive our cars and fly in the skies?
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  15. #14  
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    Stupid but honest question: What, exactly, creates natural oil?
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  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kolt
    Stupid but honest question: What, exactly, creates natural oil?
    If you are anyone except the Russians and Tommy Gold (before he died) then it forms from the decomposition of microscopic marine life trapped in sediments, typically low permeability shales, from where it migrates into permeable reservoir rocks such as sandstones or limestones.
    If you are a Russian (or Tommy Gold) you believe it comes out of the mantle and makes its way up to the superficial sedimentary layers.

    P.S. There are no stupid questions. (The converse is not true - there are stupid answers. Please refer to almost any long thread on the forum to view examples.)

    Edit: I can't believe I put an apostrophe in Russian's when I meant Russians.
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    Quote Originally Posted by queperknuckle
    I think that an even more important question is what will be the effect of removing all of the oil on the earth? Have scientists thought about this? Have you thought about this - i'm sure you have . Obviously, one effect is that by burning it, the co2 emissions raise the temperature of our world. But what will be the effect of there just being no more of it in the earth. To me, it seems like the same thing as draining a human body of all it's blood and fluids. The joints don't have anything to oil them so that they move smoothly...instead the cringe and grind together. Could it mean more earthquakes or will the earth do more violent things once we've robbed her of her precious fluids? Or - for those of you with no imagination at all - will nothing happen except we won't be able to drive our cars and fly in the skies?
    most oil companies today fill in where they take from. their reasons are more to prevent cave ins or others, but they do fill in. in other places, such as deep water other things fill in the space. i have never heard any suggestion this could lead to earth quakes or any event since the total oil from the earth is not really all that much of the total, and causes for other events are explained.

    there are many theory on just what oil is from. they range from what humans to all life became way back, to water going through particular strong sand or gravel. petrified wood for instance forms in about fifty years in rather docile earth. dig up most any old post and you will find petrified wood, but this process was thought to take millions of years at one time. some, not me, think oil is is constant creation from stream and rivers in certain places on earth. the only sequence i can imagine is the density of oil (very runny to very thick).
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  18. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    Quote Originally Posted by Kolt
    Stupid but honest question: What, exactly, creates natural oil?
    If you are anyone except the Russian's and Tommy Gold (before he died) then it forms from the decomposition of microscopic marine life trapped in sediments, typically low permeability shales, from where it migrates into permeable reservoir rocks such as sandstones or limestones.
    If you are a Russian (or Tommy Gold) you believe it comes out of the mantle and makes its way up to the superficial sedimentary layers.

    P.S. There are no stupid questions. (The converse is not true - there are stupid answers. Please refer to almost any long thread on the forum to view examples.)

    "LOL"......Hey Ophi' - Most of my threads are long. I can't help it. Don't hate me 'cause I'm beautiful!
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