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Thread: Australia will be greener throughout 2012.

  1. #1 Australia will be greener throughout 2012. 
    The Enchanter westwind's Avatar
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    Studying the Weather Channel current history and predictions makes me believe that Australia will be greener in the coming 12 months. If you were on the ground here in the Eastern States you would be inclined to agree with me. Abnormal heavier than what would normally be predicted rains have been falling February/March 2012. Central Australia has not missed out. OK, so it has been very warm on our West Coast. But the Weather Channel and I will note this, but not let it interfere with our assessment. Being greener would suggest that Australia, for the next 12 months, will soak up CO2. from the Atmosphere? Am I right in thinking this? Australia burns coal. The heating source that creates Steam to drive the turbines that generate our Electricity. I n Victoria particulary. So we produce greenhouse gases. This year, with the greening of Australia, we may break even and cancell out our invironmental damage. Will anyone be able to evaluate the result after the 12 months? Who would be responsible for monitoring this process? Who really has the will and the direction to pick up the ball and start running with it on this one? westwind.


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  3. #2  
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    This will be A.) attributed to GLOBAL WARMING and therefore B.) A CATASTROPHE. Enjoy!


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  4. #3  
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    Weather is not climate.
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    Westwind, there is ENSO and that makes for a lot of year to year variability in rainfall in Eastern Australia. Yes, there's a surge in growth in vegetation from wet la Nina conditions. It follows on from extreme drought, record heatwaves and wildfires of unprecedented severity during previous el Nino dominated conditions. CO2 uptake and release by vegetation is going to follow that ENSO pattern too. Fire services are already expressing concerns for extreme fires when la Nina gives way to el Nino and that vegetative build up turns dry and flammable even disregarding the impacts of climate change.

    Like global temperatures and upper level ocean heat content that are strongly affected by ENSO year to year, a longer period than a year or even five is needed to discern actual trends in the uptake and release of CO2 and other GHG's by vegetation.

    As for climate change impacts, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has consistently indicated the likelihood of more extreme weather events - droughts and heatwaves on one hand, more extreme flood events on the other - as climate change progresses. For SE Australia it's an overall drying trend (over a 15 year period), which, so far, the floods of the past 2 summers hasn't fully reversed. It's predictions are not absolute of course and another la Nina and more extreme rain events could be enough to change the longer term trend. It doesn't make climate change and the economic and other costs of climate change go away; floods, like droughts, come with price tags from lost agricultural production and infrastructure damage. Those weather extremes will tend to occur within the context of hot and dry for SE Australia during el Nino and summer flood events during la Nina and within the context of warming oceans and higher global and regional temperatures. Australia is managing to avoid having those releases of CO2 from fires being included in it's emissions on the basis that it's natural but if the uptake during the wet times is to be counted as sequestration, then it would be cooking the books to exclude the CO2 releases due to drought and fire. But, unfortunately, cooking the books to avoid commitments to serious action on emissions is widespread within nations like Australia that are doing their best to justify doing the least they can get away with.
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    Wet week in southern New South Wales 28 Feb-5 Mar 2012 – no long term rain records at larger towns in SE.
    March 10th, 2012 by Warwick Hughes

    Around the 28 Feb the BoM forecast several days of significant rain – as per this forecast map. The Canberra Times headlined – Bureau warns of regional flooding.

    No doubt the BoM forecast was pretty good as a major wet week ensued – but there were few rain records across major centres in the SE of NSW for the 7 days 28 Feb – 5 Mar as the statistics from BoM stations will show – most of these centres had some flooding in the news. Note that the BoM publishes data from at least 4900 NSW stations, many of which are closed or have gaps – so hunting down rainfall statistics needs some patience.

    70217 Cooma Airport AWS had 156.2mm which is easily exceeded by several historic 7 day episodes at
    70023 Cooma Lambie St.; March 1950 – 182mm, July 1922 – 169mm, Jan 1934 – 196mm, June 1891 – 158mm, Feb 1873 – 170mm.

    70014 Canberra Airport had 198.6mm which was exceeded by this episode in
    March 1950 – 247.9mm in 6 days – there was also March 1989 – 190mm in 5 days incl 15 Mar @ 126mm.

    70330 Goulburn Airport AWS had 155.6mm but only has records from 1994. So looking for other stations near or in Goulburn we find plenty that have had heavier 7 day totals.

    70037 Goulburn commenced 1857; Mar 1914 – 186mm, Feb 1860 – 207mm

    70038 Goulburn No 2; Mar-Apr 1950 – 187mm

    70263 Goulburn TAFE commenced 1971; Jan 2006 – 185mm, Aug 1974 – 203mm

    63291 Bathurst Airport AWS had 140mm but 63004 Bathurst Gaol with data from 1858 records the following 7 day totals; Jan 1976 – 164mm, Feb 1971 – 190mm, March 1950 – 166mm and March 1926 – 153mm.

    63231 Orange Airport AWS recorded 155mm and even data from that station showed these previous higher 7 day totals; Feb 1992 – 250mm, Apr 1990 – 169mm, Jan 1978 – 193mm, Jan 1976 – 199mm, Feb 1973 – 195mm. Orange Post Office has a dozen more heavier 7 day totals back to 1878 – but enough for now.

    65111 Cowra Airport AWS recorded 165.2mm; while 63021 Cowra PO with data from 1885-1965 recorded the following; Feb 1992 – 212mm, Jan 1958 – 157mm, Jun 1925 – 195mm, Dec 1886 – 219mm.

    So, the overall impression at those towns was of a very wet week that rolls along every few decades – but far from record breaking. The BoM has put out a “Special Climate Statement 39″ – Exceptional heavy rainfall across southeast Australia, which includes some dodgy claims of less-than-robust records which I will comment on soon.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++

    Unfortunately for some, no disaster YET. If we wait long enough, some bad thing to blame on GLOBAL WARMING will surely occur- have faith, brethren, have faith...
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  7. #6  
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    Arthur weather is not climate...
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  8. #7  
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    I've heard that somehwhere before
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    I dont think it is going to make any difference, as someone already said weather varies from year to year...
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    There might be a reprieve for a few years, but the long term trends aren't' promising. Increasing temperatures, with flat rainfall trends, means increased evaporation resulting in lower soil moisture and less water available for agriculture or urban use.

    It really shows up in places like Perth reservoirs inflow data.
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    Whoa, that's an ugly graph!!!

    (I don't mean the graph, but the content; it's actually a very nice graph )
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  12. #11  
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    Yeah, Perth's intake to water supplies strikes me as maybe the earliest evidence for expansion of Hadley cells.

    But that's not important. What is important is that the Mad Max sequel planned years ago couldn't possibly be shot in Australia for the last 3 years. allAfrica.com: Namibia: 'Mad Max' Sequel Set to Be Shot in the Country! And if they'd held off the decision, they couldn't have done it this year either.
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  13. #12  
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    Long term climate change predictions, globally, are for increased average precipitation. There will be places where it is a lot more, or a little more, or less, or a lot less. The problem is that, making localised predictions that are reliable, is actually impossible. As an average, assuming your home is in an average place, expect more rain. Or not. We don't know.
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  14. #13  
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    Most likely for Eastern Australia, more rain, drier soils and lower reservoirs because of increased evaporation.
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  15. #14  
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    For Lynx Fox. I've lived all my life in Eastern Australia. ( 78 years ). What hurts us most of course is the lack of regular good rains. Prolonged Drought conditions can prevail, in some areas of NSW rain dosen't fall for several years. Fate and circumstance conspired to have me born in such a District. At the beginning of a long dry spell. Depression years in Australia, you can't eat money, but when you cannot grow your own food due to lack of rain or moist conditions, then you live in a desperate world. As we can see in the North west of Africa, the Horn of Africa. Water was purchased from water suppliers in 500 gallon tanks, far to important for bathing. No bathing. several years of my early life was shared with my Family in these conditions. Particularly dry from 1938/1942. We have had several dry spells since then, one only recently. Of course now we have floods. Last two years have been wet. So when I started this Thread it was because, in my Lifetime, the Greening of Central Australia is a rare occurance, and unfortunatly cannot be expected to last for to long. Still, there will be wildflowers and the Grey Nomads will venture forth when all the roads dry out, and smell the roses. Commenting on your post, ( March the 22nd) our overnight temperatures in Eastern Australia are averaging higher, day time temperatures remain fairly steady according to yearly averages. Evaporation is more pronounced away from the Coasts, Inland temperatures, coupled with drier air, tend to rapid evaporation, as these peroids of hot dry days can run into weeks at a time. Most of Eastern Australian water storages are Coastal in location and do not suffer a lot of evaporation. westwind.
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    Australia has always had an extreme climate. The big issue with climate change is that the wet places will be wetter. The dry places, like where I live, will be drier.

    Evaporation is a big issue in Perth and Adelaide even though they're 'coastal'. Adelaide has not much less rainfall than London, but being 'more Mediterranean than the Mediterranean' we have long periods with no rain and lose a great deal of soil moisture due to our very low relative humidity. Perth gets a little bit more rain, but the summer evaporation rate there is extraordinary. In both places average evaporation exceeds average rainfall. See maps.

    Australian Climate Averages - Evaporation (Climatology 1975-2005)
    Australian Climate Averages - Rainfall (Climatology 1961-1990)
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    Adelady

    Sounds to me like a technique developed in India would work well in both Perth and Adelaide. During the wet times, lots of water is collected in vast reservoirs. Those reservoirs have covers to prevent evaporation. The water is then available for the dry times.
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    Funnily enough, Adelaide is the city in Australia with the highest uptake of rainwater tanks. WhenI was a small child, absolutely everyone had a rainwater tank. This was dismissed as 'old-fashioned' when water sfteners became available to treat the mains water - notoriously hard as well as unpalatable.

    Nowadays, government rebates are available for installations that are connected to the house itself (not just for gardens). And we have some pretty nifty greywater tanks, also with government rebates, as well as some very successful municipal wetlands for reclaiming and processing stormwater. (If you like, I could also perform my frothing mouthed rant about the ludicrous, not to say iniquitous, installation of far too many square kilometres of impermeable surfaces in the suburbs, especially concrete gutters. Much of Adelaide is built on highly reactive clay which swells when wet and cracks when dry. Depriving the subsoil of a minimum guaranteed level of consistent moisture is grade A stupidity.)
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    I live off rainwater tanks myself. When we built our house 4 years ago, I made sure there was lots of roof water collecting area, and 57,000 litres of water storage. Two years ago we had a drought that lasted 6 months. A few small splashes of rain only, but otherwise bone dry. We were among the few not paying to get water trucked in.

    It is not terribly difficult to build a house with water storage for 12 months. All that is needed is the determination.
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  20. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by skeptic View Post
    It is not terribly difficult to build a house with water storage for 12 months. All that is needed is the determination.
    and some rain from time to time wouldn't go amiss, even if spread out over several months
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  21. #20  
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    Dramatic change would have to happen for Australia to be greener
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  22. #21  
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    Dramatic change would have to happen for Australia to be greener
    Well I can assure you it's pretty dramatic round here. It's the end of March and the parks around here - and my own lawns - are green.

    Absolutely unbelievable. It used to be like that when I was a kid because we watered everything all the time, but not for the last fifteen years or so. Amaaaazing. Should take some photos, we'll be needing reminders in the dry and the dust when the next El Nino turns up.
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