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Thread: El'Nino What Is Next

  1. #1 El'Nino What Is Next 
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    I'm mearly an understudy of this field but I want answers to as why we are not scared out of are heads from the aftermath that is happening before are eyes.Why is the jet-stream alteration not a concern among the general population.The other question is when will come the next so-called El'Nino and the effects which I assume will be catastrophic well accure.


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    I would also like to know as to why the forest area around my home have 20 ft trees that are being de -rooted by 20-30 mph winds. I notice trees down with huge basins and roots seem to be on the upper part of the soil and not deep into the ground.I also notice pine's being stripped and decaying still in the ground.I figure it is a pest Ive heard about but no knowledge about them.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan View Post
    I'm mearly an understudy of this field but I want answers to as why we are not scared out of are heads from the aftermath that is happening before are eyes.Why is the jet-stream alteration not a concern among the general population.The other question is when will come the next so-called El'Nino and the effects which I assume will be catastrophic well accure.
    The latest forecast are about 50/50% whether a mild El Nino will develop by next summer, or whether conditions will remain neutral.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan View Post
    I would also like to know as to why the forest area around my home have 20 ft trees that are being de -rooted by 20-30 mph winds. I notice trees down with huge basins and roots seem to be on the upper part of the soil and not deep into the ground.I also notice pine's being stripped and decaying still in the ground.I figure it is a pest Ive heard about but no knowledge about them.
    Where do you live? Around here, we've had the wettest year since records were kept (about 126 years) so the ground is saturated. Shallow rooted trees blow over easily in mud. Some species have deep roots, some are shallow. During wet conditions, shallow rooted trees are prone to being uprooted (that's what it's called, BTW) in even moderate winds.

    Again, depending on where you live, there are pine bark beetles and other pests that are thriving due to warming temperatures. The pines could also be drowning from saturated soil. Very few trees thrive when they are below the water table for a long period of time.
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    Thanks Wayne,yeah the weather in the central U.S. has been very wet.Well,rite now its rained for one hour (light rain) and there water on top of the ground.I'm woundering tho if these plays out for five to ten year what the outcome would be .When I was young we had tornado season in March now its in February.The winters also, well this year has been very mild.I notice to the lighting storms have increased dramatically in the past few years also.
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    Do you mean "our" heads or "air" heads?

    As for the roots of trees, some are deep and some are shallow, according to the species involved. Shallow roots typically spread wide to optimize absorption of moisture from precipitation, while deep roots are more common in arid climates, though there are exceptions as usual. If you want to witness the "aftermath" of something, you will have to wait until what is happening before your eyes is OVER.

    And for pity's sake, get a grip. Panicking helps neither the situation nor your understanding of that situation- in fact, it has the contrary effect.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur Angler View Post
    As for the roots of trees, some are deep and some are shallow
    nice modell but it's only right for really natural woods and even then you've got mixed woods. I don't know the US so good, in Germany we have nearly just "anthropogen" woods, which is growing faster and is rooting shallow a problem even we have just light storms. What bryan perhaps could have ment was in germany called (word for word) "forest die" and was a big problem until sulfur filter were established today those filter are very important for our gypsum production, and the forests are ok... with the exception of its composition being not natural and monocultures thats even a big reason for pests. By the way I'm wondering a little bit if there is a El Nino you will get lesser tornados and hurricanes.

    @bryan: please mind that english is not everybody's mother language here
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    This would appear to be the case for bryan himself. Guten Tag, Geographer. Your English is vastly superior to my German.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur Angler View Post
    This would appear to be the case for bryan himself. Guten Tag, Geographer. Your English is vastly superior to my German.
    maybe but german is so hard to learn, isn't it?
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    The other question is when will come the next so-called El'Nino and the effects which I assume will be catastrophic well accure.
    I think you're talking about the possible impacts of a 'big' El Nino. El Nino is just the Pacific-Ocean-releasing-heat part of the ENSO cycle. It doesn't have to be big to have an effect. But there will be a big one, some time or other.

    Seeing as the recent La Nina years include the hottest year ever recorded (but in a tie, 2010 & 2005), the next big El Nino could produce remarkably hot global atmospheric temperatures even if it's not like the massive one of 1998. But you might as well get used to it.

    Temperatures are up and they'll stay up for a very long time even if we get our act together on emissions reduction. We've a long way ahead on actually reducing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere.
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    Thanks for the posts.The "Forest Die" really got my attention due to the factors of the area I live in. I'm going to post pics of the forest here cause the trees do look to be in a dead decomposed state with minor de-rooted time from the earth frankly saying they are dead in the ground.
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    I'm worried about a shift in the major jet stream.Im an understudy in this field.
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    The shifted jet stream I was talking about was in 1994 when the ionosphere heated up and blew chunks of the atmosphere into space.
    Last edited by bryan; January 12th, 2012 at 01:09 PM.
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    Oh!! German haha good day to you or Guten Tag
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan View Post
    The shifted jet stream I was talking about was in 1994 when the isosphere heated up and blew chunks of the atmosphere into space.
    Do you have an specific studies in mind?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by bryan View Post
    The shifted jet stream I was talking about was in 1994 when the isosphere heated up and blew chunks of the atmosphere into space.
    Do you have an specific studies in mind?
    That the atmosphere loses from time to time gas to the space isn't really new, I wpould presume this is normally working in the ITC (inter tropic convergence zone)

    Guten Tag, right back or better good night in germany it's pretty late.
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    isosphere heated up and blew chunks of the atmosphere into space.
    Isosphere???

    Do you mean the ionosphere?
    "Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen." Winston Churchill
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Geographer View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur Angler View Post
    This would appear to be the case for bryan himself. Guten Tag, Geographer. Your English is vastly superior to my German.
    maybe but german is so hard to learn, isn't it?
    Most things worth doing are difficult. Nice to have you here, it is a pretty eclectic group. So are the folks in Germany obsessed with the weather as much as our members?
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    This thread has very little good scientific content.

    What studies are being referred to--or summations of studies being reported by the media?

    For example we could take this one about jet stream changes: Jet stream moving north, study finds - US news - Environment - Climate Change - msnbc.com

    Without such content, people start guessing about what the topic is and follow on with pure rhetoric instead of rhetoric mixed with science. For example, this thread started to discuss loosing the atmosphere, which as best I can tell probably doesn't have a thing to do with the thread, but to the uninformed looks like it might since it has something to do with the atmosphere.

    We can either amp it up a bit or I can move this to the general discussion forum.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur Angler View Post
    Most things worth doing are difficult.
    my former korean flatmate (a girl), always answered on my question "but what can you do with german?" "You can speak it in austria, too! (thinking of the nice sweet meals in austria)" so why do you think it's worth learning? I think it's a little bit like for me learning french, nice to have perhaps you can impress a girl with (because "your are so intellectual" :-D ), but you don't really have to learn it, isn't it like this?
    Nice to have you here, it is a pretty eclectic group.
    thanks, I appreciate this
    So are the folks in Germany obsessed with the weather as much as our members?
    obsessed... hmm I wouldn't say obsessed, I think that we in Germany have a really wide middle class which has the leisure to deal with the big problems of our society, so we have a really great "green" community and even a party which always gets 10-20% for a german minister it would be political suicid to deny climate change, we have much stricter environmental regulations than the US the only thing we try to protect is our car industry, but we also have a really high tax on fuel but this makes us not so vulnerable about price fluctuations. Back to the people, the really obsessed ones have a strong and most times an extreme opinion but much lesser knowledge, thats my experience. Because of this I'm more interested in natural fluctuations like El Nino.
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    my former korean flatmate (a girl), always answered on my question "but what can you do with german?" "You can speak it in austria, too! (thinking of the nice sweet meals in austria)" so why do you think it's worth learning? I think it's a little bit like for me learning french, nice to have perhaps you can impress a girl with (because "your are so intellectual" :-D ), but you don't really have to learn it, isn't it like this?
    I can't speak German, but I can speak its cousin languages. The real benefit is being able to speak it in a situation where you will need to. That's unlikely though, so the benefit is applying that brain to new things - things that may interest you. Plus, assuming you were to learn German, it becomes easier to learn languages that are related. For instance: Because I speak Afrikaans, I can hold my own in a conversation with a Dutchmen, and because of the somewhat similar nature of the languages I might be able to understand a simple phrase or two in German because of the nouns.
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    Ioso and Iono,I consume so much data in different fields to where I cross them all the time.My question was on the topic of jet streams,which link to a cause and effect plot.Thanks for the responses to this,as some say the plot thickens.
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    maybe but german is so hard to learn, isn't it?
    It sure is not easy ( I speak it fluently ), but as stander-j said, it will greatly help in learning and understanding other related languages, like Afrikaans, Dutch etc. In my case I can oftentimes even figure out the meaning when I see stuff written in some of the Scandinavian languages, specifically Swedish and Norvegian. So yeah, it is useful...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markus Hanke View Post
    maybe but german is so hard to learn, isn't it?
    It sure is not easy ( I speak it fluently ), but as stander-j said, it will greatly help in learning and understanding other related languages, like Afrikaans
    you made my day! (I know afrikaans is very similar to dutch but it still sounds funny)
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Geographer View Post
    you made my day! (I know afrikaans is very similar to dutch but it still sounds funny)
    Yes, it is quite close to Dutch, but you are right, there are differences in vocabulary, grammar and pronunciation, so I image it would sound "funny" to a Dutch speaker.
    Like I said, I am fluent in German; I have friends in Namibia and South Africa, and when they speak Afrikaans I can understand a lot of it ( though not everything ), without ever having studied the language. If you think about it, it is fascinating how our brain is able to extrapolate and improvise "on the go", and make you understand a language based on similarities only. Cool
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markus Hanke View Post
    Yes, it is quite close to Dutch, but you are right, there are differences in vocabulary, grammar and pronunciation, so I image it would sound "funny" to a Dutch speaker.
    I fear you missed the point, normally somebody wouldn't expect that you would say that a language called "afrikaans" is very similar to german (if he doesn't know the language), wouldn't he?
    Like I said, I am fluent in German; I have friends in Namibia and South Africa, and when they speak Afrikaans I can understand a lot of it ( though not everything ), without ever having studied the language. If you think about it, it is fascinating how our brain is able to extrapolate and improvise "on the go", and make you understand a language based on similarities only. Cool
    well I thought you would be german, cause your name sounds very german (or at least one of your parents)
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Geographer View Post
    well I thought you would be german, cause your name sounds very german (or at least one of your parents)
    Hmm...don't take offense, but I would prefer not to make public my real nationality, or real geographical location. My user name is my real name, though.
    Suffice it to say that English is not my first language, and I am not based in Germany. However, your educated guess isn't far off the mark...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markus Hanke View Post
    Hmm...don't take offense, but I would prefer not to make public my real nationality, or real geographical location. My user name is my real name, though.
    well you didn't left so much space for guessing (maybe there are 2-3 opportunities)... I respect your wish, I wouldn't publish my real name in a forum
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Geographer View Post
    well you didn't left so much space for guessing (maybe there are 2-3 opportunities)... I respect your wish, I wouldn't publish my real name in a forum
    I suppose there are always two possibilities : publish your name and keep your location hidden, or publish your location and don't use your real name. Or just make up stuff altogether :-)
    I chose the former. I have no problem giving my real name ( I stand behind everything I post here ), but at the same time I wouldn't want people to be able to make a geographical connection.

    PS. You'd be surprised if you knew where I really am. I can tell you for certain that it isn't part of your 2-3 possibilities :-)
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    I suppose there are always two possibilities : publish your name and keep your location hidden, or publish your location and don't use your real name. Or just make up stuff altogether :-)
    One of those two is much more dangerous than the other though, in terms of potentially providing an avenue for personal information to be available. Just saying.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KALSTER View Post
    I suppose there are always two possibilities : publish your name and keep your location hidden, or publish your location and don't use your real name. Or just make up stuff altogether :-)
    One of those two is much more dangerous than the other though, in terms of potentially providing an avenue for personal information to be available. Just saying.
    I'm aware of that
    But then again, I'm quite IT savvy, even though that isn't my profession either.
    Google my full name, and you get 6301 hits on 2799 distinct domains spread across servers in 74 countries. So which one am I ? Or am I there at all ? Take your pick
    I think I would need to get someone REALLY pissed off before anyone would bother to go through the trouble of trying to hunt me down in real life. And I can assure you, they wouldn't succeed. Still, I take no chance so far as location is concerned. As for other personal information, I never provide the really sensitive stuff. Never. Not anywhere.

    P.S. I am not as stupid so as to allow anyone ( including moderators ) to guess at my location just by looking at the IP addresses my posts come from. There are ways and means. Just saying
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    People are just ignorant, they need a catastrophe to happen to get their attention
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