Thread: Decade hurricane forecast

As one of the most active hurricane seasons winds down a new group of modelers claims they can start predicting a decade out.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80...de-in-advance/

I'm somewhat dubious the year to year numbers will pan out or be worth much because the annual variability is so high. I do think climate models probably are of some use predicting average number and geographic range in future decades.

This is interesting. I've seen a short documentary about determining when there could be tornados, or how they are called in English (example - Catrina). Though, that was tree cutting and looking into them. Some particular trees takes more water, than the others, and since it's a lot of water, obviously, it looks different. Sorry for a poor explanation...

Originally Posted by Lynx_Fox

I'm somewhat dubious the year to year numbers will pan out or be worth much because the annual variability is so high. I do think climate models probably are of some use predicting average number and geographic range in future decades.

Looking at Fig. 1 in the Nature Geoscience summary, the agreement between historical and hindcasted data is remarkable - too good to be true perhaps.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v.../ngeo1004.html

thx for link, very interesting read.

Sadly i can not give u any help in your question, my knowlegde of this subject is way to low. how ever.. what is it they say on myth busters... it possible.. but that dosnt make it a fact =).