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Thread: Earthquake warning

  1. #1 Earthquake warning 
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    Should´nt the goverment be able to warn people that live in an earthquake risk zone by foreseeing the movement of the tectonic plates?


     

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  3. #2 Re: Earthquake warning 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega
    Should´nt the goverment be able to warn people that live in an earthquake risk zone by foreseeing the movement of the tectonic plates?
    Good luck with the technology. I don't think we are anywhere near that level in the sciences.


     

  4. #3  
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    Depends on the fault, and the type of movement you want warning of.

    In theory, the nasty one in my area should begin a "signature" approximately one week before the serious movement. I understand it's a decoupling of the plates that eventually allows them to slide, kinda like a suction cup falling off a window (silly analogy..). So, plenty of warning.
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  5. #4  
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    Predictions are always annoying and most of the time, nobody ever bothers to care about them, specially whith issues as "earthquakes". For an example here is an interesting prediction, not taken as serious in the time of its publication :

    J.C. Ruegg et al. / Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 175 (2009) 78–85

    ( I got it from a friend. I tried to link it, but it didn`t work, I don`t really know how, but the article predicts with scientific data, the past earthquake, we suffered).

    (post edited ) here it is :

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/27993908/n...pcion-in-Chile
     

  6. #5 Re: Earthquake warning 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega
    Should´nt the goverment be able to warn people that live in an earthquake risk zone by foreseeing the movement of the tectonic plates?
    Sure they should...but we don't yet have the technology.

    The modern nations are getting better at risk mitigation that take earthquake risk into account when considering building codes(e.g. tie structure to foundation), zoning (e.g. don't build school near the Oregon beach) etc.

    Sensor network and Tsunami modeling to identify those rick and perhaps be able to provide better forecast are slowly coming on line.
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  7. #6 Re: Earthquake warning 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega
    Should´nt the goverment be able to warn people that live in an earthquake risk zone by foreseeing the movement of the tectonic plates?
    Apart from disseminating knowledge of known fault zones, how do you propose the government would be able to warm people from a geophysical standpoint?
     

  8. #7  
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    we know for instance that Istanbul is due for a big and presumably very devastating earthquake any time soon, since it's about the only part of that fault line that hasn't had an earthquake in the recent past

    trouble is, "any time soon" could be tomorrow or could be in 50 years time - rather imprecise from a human time scale's point of view
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
     

  9. #8  
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    I said before that the (locked) Cascadia is hypothesized to take a week to decouple before the major slide occurs. I couldn't find a link though.

    On the other hand


    here we see the ratchet action is quite regular. Risk of "the big one" comes at 14 month intervals. Seriously, it might be good to have a statutory holiday a week prior to these dates, call it "Survival Day" or something, focus community preparedness.
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  10. #9  
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    The technologies was being so increased. It was helpful for people to give the warn about the earthquake. It was great. GeophysicaL gave the report about the earthquake.
     

  11. #10  
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    In geological terms soon means in the next half million years, imminently means in the next ten thousand, now means in the next thousand.
    "Let's evacuate California. The Big One is due now!"
    It won't work that way.
     

  12. #11  
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    Depends on the fault, and the type of movement you want warning of.

    In theory, the nasty one in my area should begin a "signature" approximately one week before the serious movement. I understand it's a decoupling of the plates that eventually allows them to slide, kinda like a suction cup falling off a window (silly analogy..). So, plenty of warning.


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  13. #12  
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    Earthquake prediction is impossible.

    Early warning systems are possible however.

    The P-wave arrives first followed by the S-wave, which are pretty harmless waves believe it or not. The waves that cause all the damage are the surface waves. Surface waves are quite a bit slower than body waves, because they travel at the group velocity whereas the "body" waves (P and S) travel at the phase velocity -- and if you know a bit of physics then you know that phase velocity > group velocity.

    So if you record a body wave at a station you can trigger the alert that a more destructive surface wave is coming. That might give you time to cut off the gas, and the electricity, trigger some (battery powered) alarms, and stop moving trains etc.. before the nasty surface wave gets there.
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  14. #13  
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    RICHTER SCALE

    5-6
    Felt by all.

    6
    Considerable damage to poorly built buildings.

    6-7
    Tall structures may twist and fall.

    7
    well-built buildings get considerably damaged. The ground may crack.

    7-8
    The ground cracks.

    8
    bridges and most buildings collaspe. Large cracks appear in the ground.

    8 or greater
    Almost everything is destroyed. The surface of the ground moves in waves or ripples.
     

  15. #14  
    WYSIWYG Moderator marnixR's Avatar
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    how does the above contribute to a thread on earthquake warnings ?
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
     

  16. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by marnixR
    how does the above contribute to a thread on earthquake warnings ?
    well, if "almost everything is destroyed and the surface of the ground moves in waves or ripples, then you know it's too late for a warning."
     

  17. #16 Re: Re 
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    Quote Originally Posted by SandraKim
    Earthquakes are natural disasters, which kill thousands of people in an instant and can destroy cities and countries- human habitation across miles. The vibration during an earthquake has the potential to wreak havoc and destruction, which is beyond imagination. The destruction is the maximum near the epicenter, the place from where the vibrations arise and spread. Of late there have been many such natural disasters, which can be associated with earthquakes like the Tsunami that hit the shores of India, Thailand and razed down buildings and annihilated many lives. It seemed like Mother Nature was avenging herself on us who have used all her endowments to the fullest extent without caring to rejuvenate them.
    The excessive exploitation of earth’s resources for our own benefits like building dams to store large volumes of water and blasting rocks and mountains to build bridges and roads is also the reason behind such natural disruptions.
    Well, earthquakes and vulcanism were happening for the entire history of the 4.57 billion year old planet that we live on. As confirmation of this just look at any mountain range, like the Himalayas or Alps, and you are seeing the results of great collisions that caused great earthquakes well before Humans were on the planet. Plate tectonics of the cooling Earth are the cause and our little building projects have nothing to do with it. Tectonics will continue long after we are gone. It is up to us to be aware of the risks and do the best we can to protect what we have, but we can not change or affect the continuing evolution of the surface of the planet.
    I'm sorry, my responses are limited. You must ask the right question.

    "The track of a glacier is as unmistakable as that of a man or a bear, and is as significant and trustworthy as any other legible inscription"
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    "From observations upon living glaciers, and from the known nature of ice, we may learn to recognize the track of a glacier as readily and unmistakably as we would the familiar foot-prints of an animal." G. F. Wright 1891 (108-109)

     

  18. #17  
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    I think Sandra Kim is a bot - 'her' posts are purely designed to deliver the link to a commercial website.
     

  19. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    I think Sandra Kim is a bot - 'her' posts are purely designed to deliver the link to a commercial website.
    Ahh, classroom thinking is my default, there may be others.
    I'm sorry, my responses are limited. You must ask the right question.

    "The track of a glacier is as unmistakable as that of a man or a bear, and is as significant and trustworthy as any other legible inscription"
    John Strong Newberry; 1873

    "From observations upon living glaciers, and from the known nature of ice, we may learn to recognize the track of a glacier as readily and unmistakably as we would the familiar foot-prints of an animal." G. F. Wright 1891 (108-109)

     

  20. #19 Re: Earthquake warning 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega
    Should´nt the goverment be able to warn people that live in an earthquake risk zone by foreseeing the movement of the tectonic plates?
    The government should warn people, and of course this technology exists. The discoverer hasn't made this type of knowledge available to the public until 2009, but he offered it to the USGS in 1996.

    Destructive earthquakes are easy to detect days and weeks before they strike.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist
     

  21. #20  
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    Update for Cascadia quake: The expected episode of (deep, non-destructive) tremor and slip began August 8th and appears to have ended yesterday. Right on schedule. This means we have another 14 months of reduced earthquake risk until the next episode.

    The media goes bonkers with any sort of risk statement, no matter how it's couched, so it might be best to say nothing? I'd like people to know that earthquake in this region is ...less unlikely... during predictable windows, and I idealistically believe we might save lives and property by focusing preparedness especially before these dates. How?
    A pong by any other name is still a pong. -williampinn
     

  22. #21 Re: Earthquake warning 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    The government should warn people, and of course this technology exists.
    You have completely failed to demonstrate this is so oin another thread. Until you have done so please do not pollute other threads with unsubstantiated statements.
     

  23. #22 All magnitudes of earthquakes are detectable before striking 
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    I'm sorry Ophiolite that you obviously know nothing about earthquakes except what you "prefer" to read or watch on the Internet. I haven't failed to demonstrate this knowledge on the other threads, in fact its just the opposite and you can't stand to read the truth. I posted exactly where "it's demonstrated" but you have never gone there and looked, as per your own words that you don't need to go and look. SO PLEASE keep your unsubstantiated lies or statements to YOURSELF and let others know the truth.

    Once again, here is where all of the videos are that demonstrate how earthquakes of all magnitudes are detected before they strike. An "EXPERT" on earthquakes, with decades of knowledge, called "NewMexicoGeologist" on YouTube shows how its all done; and his name is David Berger.

    http://www.youtube.com/results?searc...Geologist&aq=f
     

  24. #23 Re: All magnitudes of earthquakes are detectable before stri 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    I'm sorry Ophiolite that you obviously know nothing about earthquakes
    Let's see. You are probably correct. As long as we set aside the four years of undergraduate work in geology. As long as we set aside seismic interpretation techniques I learnt during that period. As long as we ignore the seminar project I completed on strike slip faults and their associated earthquakes. As long as we ignore a further forty years of retaining an interest in geology in general and tectonics in particular.

    Unlike you I don't get my knowledge from U-tube videos, but from textbooks and referred journal articles.
    SO PLEASE keep your unsubstantiated lies or statements to YOURSELF and let others know the truth
    Cite any statement I have made and I shall fully substantiate it. Demonstrate that any statement I have made is a lie.

    Now please, for the fourth or fifth time of asking, what is the nature of this radiation that Berger claims to be detecting?
     

  25. #24 I'm unimpressed by your credential Ophiolite 
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    You state your credentials are 4 years of undergraduate in geology. Did you graduate with a bachelors in geology? Did you become a geologist, or a seismologist since you state you studied both, or are you just a wind bag blowing hot air constantly? Anybody can state the truth that they studied seismic interpretations just by picking up a free brochure some where for the tourists some place, so that doesn't impress me.

    Furthermore, anybody can take a seminar on strike slip faults associated with earthquakes; just a little change in your pocket can get you in the door, and sometimes they are free, especially for students. Completing a seminar is unimpressive also, anybody who stays for the whole one hour or more of seminar can say that they completed the seminar.

    You stating that you have retained an interest in geology or tectonics for 40 years doesn't impress me either. I know lots of people that have picked up rocks here and there along their vacations, and they could state that they have retained an interest in geology or tectonics just by picking up the rocks and taking them home.

    Ophiolite your credentials are very unimpressive, even though you try to make them sound impressive.

    If David Berger is wrong about all that he states in the 22 videos under the YouTube name of NewMexicoGeologist, http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist, then why doesn't the USGS shut him down? The USGS is supposed to be very powerful and scientific.

    If the USGS is so powerful and scientific, lets see them challenge him at his knowledge. Let's see who is right about earthquakes, the USGS or David Berger. I'm betting all of my money on David Berger because you can tell he has gained lots of information out in the field for decades in his videos. Furthermore, he states he has made many new discoveries over that time period.

    I guess you need to watch his videos and quit questioning me about stuff on the videos; you aren't that busy. Besides you state you are interested in geology and seismic, but yet you still haven't found time to watch his videos.

    Why don't you tell the USGS about him, and get them to challenge him and his knowledge; lets see the truth.
     

  26. #25 Re: I'm unimpressed by your credential Ophiolite 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer

    If David Berger is wrong about all that he states in the 22 videos under the YouTube name of NewMexicoGeologist, http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist, then why doesn't the USGS shut him down? The USGS is supposed to be very powerful and scientific.
    Because its not the job of the USGS to play though police for every random idea that is posted on a private website like Youtube.

    IF Berger was confident enough with his ideas he would be writing them up and submitting them to peer reviewed geology journals rather the posting videos on an unvetted website.
     

  27. #26 NewMexicoGeologist looks very confident in YouTube videos 
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    David Berger must be very confident in his knowledge because he's putting his knowledge in front of the entire world, instead of putting it in front of some peer review group that is hidden from the public.

    I like his style of not hiding anything from the public and coming right out and being straight forward with his findings.

    Everyone knows that peer review groups are financially backed by greedy institutions that love to get their hands on other peoples discoveries first, so that they can get the jump on others in getting more financial backing; especially if someone makes GREAT DISCOVERIES.

    If David Berger, http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist, has made such discoveries as he states in his videos, then he has made some of the greatest scientific discoveries of all time, and will have made the greatest discoveries ever in the field of geology.

    Yes... the USGS does play USGS police on YouTube. There was a geologist on another YouTube video that was stating that it was dangerous to be in Yellowstone National Park because of all of the earthquakes going on there, and they shut him down in that video and it was taken off of the air because they threatened to sue him. Here he is in another one of his vidoes:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmFWfmzOoi0

    SO... don't tell me that the USGS doesn't police YouTube videos.
     

  28. #27 Re: I'm unimpressed by your credential Ophiolite 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You state your credentials are 4 years of undergraduate in geology. Did you graduate with a bachelors in geology? Did you become a geologist, or a seismologist since you state you studied both, or are you just a wind bag blowing hot air constantly? Anybody can state the truth that they studied seismic interpretations just by picking up a free brochure some where for the tourists some place, so that doesn't impress me.

    Furthermore, anybody can take a seminar on strike slip faults associated with earthquakes; just a little change in your pocket can get you in the door, and sometimes they are free, especially for students. Completing a seminar is unimpressive also, anybody who stays for the whole one hour or more of seminar can say that they completed the seminar.

    You stating that you have retained an interest in geology or tectonics for 40 years doesn't impress me either. I know lots of people that have picked up rocks here and there along their vacations, and they could state that they have retained an interest in geology or tectonics just by picking up the rocks and taking them home.

    Ophiolite your credentials are very unimpressive, even though you try to make them sound impressive.

    If David Berger is wrong about all that he states in the 22 videos under the YouTube name of NewMexicoGeologist, http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist, then why doesn't the USGS shut him down? The USGS is supposed to be very powerful and scientific.

    If the USGS is so powerful and scientific, lets see them challenge him at his knowledge. Let's see who is right about earthquakes, the USGS or David Berger. I'm betting all of my money on David Berger because you can tell he has gained lots of information out in the field for decades in his videos. Furthermore, he states he has made many new discoveries over that time period.

    I guess you need to watch his videos and quit questioning me about stuff on the videos; you aren't that busy. Besides you state you are interested in geology and seismic, but yet you still haven't found time to watch his videos.

    Why don't you tell the USGS about him, and get them to challenge him and his knowledge; lets see the truth.
    Are you David Berger?

    If not, why do you place such faith in him?

    You clearly don't understand his science -- it is a complete black box to you. The standard scientific position on this is -- how does David Berger know what he claims to know? I put it to you that you have absolutely no idea! How can you believe someone on their claims if you have absolutely no idea how they pertained the knowledge that they claim to know?

    (So far you have failed to elucidate us on any actual science behind the novel terminology... what the hell is a "B-wave"??!!)

    Prove me wrong.... prove you understand this science (and actually have a leg to stand on): prove you don't believe Berger on pure faith!

    Explain to us the science in precise terms. If you fail then we can only assume that you don't really understand it, in which case you are in no place to tell us that it is true! There is a long way to go, but you can start by telling us:

    1) what is a B-wave?

    (Fail to answer that and you have no leg to stand on!)

    You can attack other member's credentials, but it does nothing to further your argument. Furthermore, what are your credentials to attempt to belittle Ophiolite's?
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  29. #28 Re: I'm unimpressed by your credential Ophiolite 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You state your credentials are 4 years of undergraduate in geology. Did you graduate with a bachelors in geology? .
    I graduated with an upper second class honours B.Sc. from what was, at the time, one of the top four or five universities in the UK for geology.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Did you become a geologist,
    I worked as a geologist in the oil industry, but moved over to drilling engineering disciplines as I found these more interesting at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    are you just a wind bag blowing hot air constantly?
    Definitely one of my major skills. Do you have any?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Anybody can state the truth that they studied seismic interpretations just by picking up a free brochure some where for the tourists some place, so that doesn't impress me. .
    Well certainly anyone can say that. However, I went out laid out seismic lines, set off the charges, collected the data, processed it and interpreted it. Now I am not talking the fancy sophisticated processing we do today with high speed computers. I'm talking hand cranking the numbers through the equations on a fricking manual calculator! I mean mechanical, not a fricking electronic jobby. That way you have to understand the guts of what you are doing and why you are doing it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Furthermore, anybody can take a seminar on strike slip faults associated with earthquakes; just a little change in your pocket can get you in the door, and sometimes they are free, especially for students..
    Pay attention. I didn't attend the seminar, I gave the frigging seminar. It was part of the course requirement. I was awarded a first class level pass on that one. I'm not about to list all the seminars and lectures I merely attended on seismology, nor list all the papers and mongraphs I merely read on the subject. Get real, please.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You stating that you have retained an interest in geology or tectonics for 40 years doesn't impress me either. I know lots of people that have picked up rocks here and there along their vacations, and they could state that they have retained an interest in geology or tectonics just by picking up the rocks and taking them home..
    You stated and I quote "I'm sorry Ophiolite that you obviously know nothing about earthquakes except what you "prefer" to read or watch on the Internet."

    Let me be absolutely clear here: there is no way, shape or fashion in which I can be called an expert in seismology. But it is equally ridiculous to claim as you have done, that I know nothing about earthquakes. That silly remark of yours smacks of desperation and that is what I am taking you task for here. I repeat I am no expert on earthquakes, but I sure as heck no enough to identify when someone is trying to blow smoke.

    Convince me you are not blowing smoke by telling me (this is the fifth time I have asked) what is the nature of the radiation that is detected? I see billiards has asked much the same question. Please put up or shut up.
     

  30. #29 Have Faith 
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    Billiard I place a lot of faith in David Berger because he is bold and debonair. Anybody watching his videos can see that he made two different videos and had to chop them up because they were too long for 10 minute segments.

    If David Berger, or NewMexicoGeologist, can go over and over the stuff that he goes over, and making the same claims over and over without faltering or making some sort of mistake that would give him away as being fake; then he is real. His explanations are meant for all people to understand according to him, not just grown ups.

    I do understand his science, because its meant for all to understand. Even children can understand what he has stated in his videos. I don't care as to how he knows what he claims, but he states that he had manufacturers make all of his equipment for him over the years as he made his discoveries. He states that he didn't make any of the equipment because he didn't have the technology to build it, but knew what was needed in order to make it work.

    I have a very good idea of what he talks about, but apparently you are one of the ones that still hasn't watched his videos, or you would understand what he talks about also.

    B-Waves are the precursor waves that he talks about, or pressue waves, that can be piezoseismically detected 24/7 for hours, days or weeks before earthquakes strike. I just proved you wrong billiards, too bad for you that you don't understand the videos that children can easily understand; especially since you can't take a couple of hours off to see his videos.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist
     

  31. #30 Ophiolite you do impress me somewhat 
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    Its good to see that you are well educated in geology, but realize that you know very little about earthquakes.

    There is no desparation in my remarks, I'm very calm cool and collected; and you aren't taking me to any task herein, you are the one getting your panties all bent out of shape because you will never be able to prove David Berger wrong about his earthquake knowledge, and that just gets to you like an itch you can't scratch; hahahahahaha.

    You gave your seminars to a bunch of old men that were half asleep because they were bored and you know it. David Berger gave his off the cuff seminar to the entire world to see on YouTube. There are bound to be many doubters, and skeptics; but I've seen no one with earthquake knowledge say anything wrong with what he states in the videos.

    I'm sure you know when someone is blowing smoke, all you have to do is look in the mirror every day to see that person. You and billiards can blow all of the smoke you want to, but neither one of you have watched the NewMexicoGeologist YouTube videos, or you would know the simple answer. David Berger only goes over it about a hundred times in his videos.

    Here is his link. Prove to me that one of you has finally watched his videos, or quit blowing smoke about something that neither one of you has watched; and you flat out state that you have not watched any of his videos because you can't watch them at work. Well go to a school, university or library and watch the videos.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist
     

  32. #31  
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    I've watched two out of the three. I may be able to watch the third one once I have taken my medication.

    My conclusions:

    1. He is one of the worst presenters I have seen in some time. (I am not - as has been stated - an expert on earthquakes. I am an expert on presentation skills. This guy is crap.) If he does have something, he needs to find someone who can project the idea in a way that isn't incoherent, unconvincing, ambiguous, repetetive and contradictory.
    2. He does not define what 'radiation' he is detecting, nor how he is detecting it.
    3. The logical sequence of how the system works contains within it a full explanation of why it won't work.
    4. It's far worse than I anticipated from your own attempts to describe the system.

    Seriously, this is nonsense. No one who isn't brain dead could be impressed by this shit. I deduce from this that you are either David Berger, a close friend or relative, or brain dead. It would help to progress the discussion if you tell us which one it is.
    _________________
     

  33. #32 Having Fun 
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    You need to stay off of the medication, it sounds like you are hallucinatory. Who cares how he makes the presentation as long as what is in it is the truth. IF you don't like hearing the truth, then too bad. Its impossible to prove he's wrong and that is what pisses you off. Hahahahahaha.
     

  34. #33 Re: Have Faith 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    I place a lot of faith in David Berger because he is bold and debonair.
    So?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    If David Berger, or NewMexicoGeologist, can go over and over the stuff that he goes over, and making the same claims over and over without faltering or making some sort of mistake that would give him away as being fake; then he is real.
    Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    I don't care as to how he knows what he claims,
    Hmmm?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    I have a very good idea of what he talks about,
    Clearly!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    B-Waves are the precursor waves that he talks about, or pressue waves, that can be piezoseismically detected 24/7 for hours, days or weeks before earthquakes strike.
    Oh right so "B-waves" are *very special* P-waves then?

    Because P-waves are "pressure waves, that can be piezoseismically detected".

    Next questions:

    2) How does he distinguish the B-wave from any other P-wave?

    3) Once he's detected the B-wave, how does he know when and where an earthquake is going to happen?

    4) When and where is the next earthquake going to happen!!! Lives are at stake!

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    I just proved you wrong billiards, too bad for you that you don't understand the videos that children can easily understand.
    On a serious note. You really didn't prove anything -- you have a LONG way to go before I can even take you half seriously. You are looking more and more desperate and foolish with each post you make.

    Do you have a (blind) financial interest in promoting David Berger? That would explain the recurrent links to his youtube videos. You're not winning any ground here, perhaps you should try another forum?
    Don't bother visiting my Earth Sciences forum, it died a death due to lack of love
     

  35. #34 Answers 
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    #2 How does he distinguish the B-Wave from any other P-Wave?

    A Primary or P-Wave is the first wave seismically detected "AFTER" an earthquake strikes (geology 101).

    His B-Wave is what you copied down, but you apparently had a brain aneurysm and forgot what you copied, which was "B-Waves are the precursor waves that he talks about, or pressue waves, that can be piezoseismically detected 24/7 for hours, days or weeks before earthquakes strike." Do you see the word "BEFORE" earthquakes strike? I can see the difference between his B-Wave and the old P-Wave.

    #3 Once he's detected the B-wave, how does he know when and where an earthquake is going to happen? He explained that in a very long process. Basically he states that once detection occurs, it can release with or without a quake. He states a distant release pinpoints the time of the distant strike by a similar method as determining when a flooding stream will crest.

    Your remarks are foolish, but I like foolish people; hahahahaha.

    I wish I'd get paid by both him and YouTube for contributing to their cause; hahahahaha. I'm not playing here for dirt, so I don't want to win any ground here, as you state. I'm enjoying myself. I can hardly wait till this subject is over so that I can start a new subject and get more irate people like yourself involved. You know that is how this forum becomes worth something, from people like us making posts. I should get paid by this forum too; hahahahaha.
     

  36. #35  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    What is the nature of the B-wave? Do not say it is a piezo electric wave, that offers nothing. Is it electric, electomagnetic, acoustic? How is it detected? Why has no one previously been aware of it? What is the evidence for its existence? Put up, or shut up.
     

  37. #36  
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    I have now viewed all three videos several times, painful as that was.

    His presentation is so garbled and contradictory it is difficult to know where to begin. Let’s set aside for the moment that he makes no discussion of the kind of radiation he is detecting (calling it ‘Fred’ does not help); no explanation of why it varies as it does; no description of his apparatus; no presentation of actual collected data; no exposition of a successful example of prediction. Let us simply focus on how he says the system can predict earthquakes.

    1. Piezo-seismic signals in one area respond to earthquakes in another area by initiating a five day cycle of ‘pressure’ fluctuations.

    2. These pressure fluctuations are positive over quartz bearing strata and negative over carbonates.

    3. On Day 1 each cycle peaks for around fifteen minutes, then drops to the background level for seven minutes (four to ten minutes in practice). On Day 2 the peak is held for thirty minutes and on Day 3 for forty five minutes. On Days 4 and 5 the peaks drop to thirty and fifteen minutes respectively.

    4. The cycle does not always complete, but may die out after Day 1. There may be some vague diurnal variation superimposed on the above. It is not clear how long it takes to jump from fifteen to thirty minutes, but it is made clear it is a jump, though no explanation for this is provided.

    5. If the peaks disappear on Day 3 this indicates that an earthquake is imminent.

    6. The means of detecting this earthquake apparently relate to a grid of detectors being in place , while the task is made easier since the introduction of a visual system. No further information is provided.

    7. An example given envisages an earthquake in New Madrid triggering a response in Wichita, Kansas. Cessation of the signal in Wichita on Day 3 means that Denver may suffer an earthquake in 18 hours, Mexico City in 24 hours, LA in 68 hours, or San Francisco in 72 hours. I presume, for want of any clarity from Berger’s ramblings, that were a matrix of detectors in place one could draw time contours around each detector and where the same time lines intersected that was taken to be the epicentre of the earthquake. Of course that won’t work, but Berger provides zero explanation of how else prediction could be accomplished.

    As Pauli would have said, It’s not even wrong.

    Now Adventurer, or if I may call you David, I may have got one or more steps in that sequence wrong (Indeed I am reasonably sure I have. Put that down to the incoherence of the videos.) So feel free to correct any of those steps. Or indeed all of them. I would welcome clarification, for clarity is sadly lacking. However, based on the above as my understanding, the prediction technique depends on the following:

    Detection by an undefined means, of an ill defined radiation, that produces an unaccountable response in rocks in any area, upon the occurrence of a nearby earthquake, will behave in a bizarre cyclical manner that, if terminated early in the cycle, predict in an unexplained way that an earthquake will occur in some time frame, vaguely related to distance, in some direction that seems to be arrived at by divination.

    I can see why the USGS decided to ignore it. You have an opportunity to address all of these points and show why the system should be taken seriously. As you remarked very early in your posts earthquake prediction is important and could save thousands of lives. So treat it seriously, stop messing about, answer the questions and address the points raised.
     

  38. #37 Wow, you really over did yourself 
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    Wow... you must think you are some kind of smart person. Not.

    You watched three of his 22 videos and now you claim to know it all. You have some things right from your statements from what I can tell, but lots of things are WRONG from what I see that you wrote. Your ignorance of earthquake knowledge is unappealing, and as you stated you are NO EXPERT on EARTHQUAKES, in otherwords people would be fools to believe anything you write or state.
     

  39. #38 Re: Wow, you really over did yourself 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Wow... you must think you are some kind of smart person. Not.
    Dear Adventurer, for the last time this is not about me or my intellect or my knowledge, but about Berger's hypothesis. Can we restrict ourselves to that please. If you continue to go off topic with irrelevant personal remarks I shall request that the admins take some action.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You watched three of his 22 videos and now you claim to know it all.
    1. Your link leads to only three videos, not twenty two. Furnish me with a link to all twenty two and I shall steel myself to view them.
    2. Nowhere in my post do I claim to know it all. Indeed, the reverse is true. I state very clearly that I may have totally misunderstood what he is trying to say and ask you to clarify anything that I have got wrong.

    Related to point 2, how can you actually get something so wrong? Please answer that. How can you interpret my statement "I may have got one or more steps in that sequence wrong (Indeed I am reasonably sure I have)." to mean that I 'know it all'. If you are going to continually and deliberately misinterpret what I am saying you do yourself and your argument no value at all. You simply appear foolish. Please cease that behaviour now and stick to facts.

    Your ignorance of earthquake knowledge is unappealing, and as you stated you are NO EXPERT on EARTHQUAKES, in otherwords people would be fools to believe anything you write or state.
    1. Therefore you have the opportunity, which you continually avoid, to clarify. I have made several statements reflecting my understanding of Berger's hypothesis. Correct those points where I am wrong, note those points where I am right.
    2. I do not have to be an expert on earthquakes to comment on videos that contain nothing substantive about earthquakes, but are replete with much arm waving and mumbo-jumbo.

    Now, please clarify the points I have addressed. Stop running away from unpleasant truths. Address the issues. How many chances do you wish to have to do this?
     

  40. #39 Walking the dog. 
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    Ophiolite here are your own very words below, and my replies to them.

    Ophilites exact words: I understood the videos all too well. The fallacy of his arguments was clear. I'll lay that out for you later.

    My reply: When Ophiolite? Ophiolite you sure do blow a lot of hot air; obviously from those two sentences you are ready to show us the fallacies of his arguments, but you made those statements days ago, hmmmm.

    Ophiolites exact words: My credential are irrelevant. I have made no great discoveries. But, as I said, my credentials in this are quite irrelevant. Would you try not to get fixated on them: it smacks of an inferiority complex. This has fuck all to do with me or my credentials. Let me be absolutely clear here: there is no way, shape or fashion in which I can be called an expert in seismology. I repeat I am no expert on earthquakes. I am an expert on presentation skills. Demonstrate that any statement I have made is a lie.

    My reply: Your words speak for themselves Ophiolite. I like science, and I also read or listen to everything that people say or write and the above are your exact written words here on this forum. If you are any kind of a scientist then you should know that everything that you write or say will be looked at in depth scientifically and torn apart and that is fair in science, and I have the right to show the world your very own words and tear you apart with your own words. You shouldn't write stuff down if you will be scared of people finding out the truth about you.
     

  41. #40 Walking the dog. 
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    Do you see your posts Ophiolite? and you call yourself an expert in presentations?
     

  42. #41 Re: I'm unimpressed by your credential Ophiolite 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You state your credentials are 4 years of undergraduate in geology. Did you graduate with a bachelors in geology? .
    I graduated with an upper second class honours B.Sc. from what was, at the time, one of the top four or five universities in the UK for geology.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Did you become a geologist,
    I worked as a geologist in the oil industry, but moved over to drilling engineering disciplines as I found these more interesting at the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    are you just a wind bag blowing hot air constantly?
    Definitely one of my major skills. Do you have any?

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Anybody can state the truth that they studied seismic interpretations just by picking up a free brochure some where for the tourists some place, so that doesn't impress me. .
    Well certainly anyone can say that. However, I went out laid out seismic lines, set off the charges, collected the data, processed it and interpreted it. Now I am not talking the fancy sophisticated processing we do today with high speed computers. I'm talking hand cranking the numbers through the equations on a fricking manual calculator! I mean mechanical, not a fricking electronic jobby. That way you have to understand the guts of what you are doing and why you are doing it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    Furthermore, anybody can take a seminar on strike slip faults associated with earthquakes; just a little change in your pocket can get you in the door, and sometimes they are free, especially for students..
    Pay attention. I didn't attend the seminar, I gave the frigging seminar. It was part of the course requirement. I was awarded a first class level pass on that one. I'm not about to list all the seminars and lectures I merely attended on seismology, nor list all the papers and mongraphs I merely read on the subject. Get real, please.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adventurer
    You stating that you have retained an interest in geology or tectonics for 40 years doesn't impress me either. I know lots of people that have picked up rocks here and there along their vacations, and they could state that they have retained an interest in geology or tectonics just by picking up the rocks and taking them home..
    You stated and I quote "I'm sorry Ophiolite that you obviously know nothing about earthquakes except what you "prefer" to read or watch on the Internet."

    Let me be absolutely clear here: there is no way, shape or fashion in which I can be called an expert in seismology. But it is equally ridiculous to claim as you have done, that I know nothing about earthquakes. That silly remark of yours smacks of desperation and that is what I am taking you task for here. I repeat I am no expert on earthquakes, but I sure as heck no enough to identify when someone is trying to blow smoke.

    Convince me you are not blowing smoke by telling me (this is the fifth time I have asked) what is the nature of the radiation that is detected? I see billiards has asked much the same question. Please put up or shut up.
     

  43. #42  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    Adventurer this has become tedious.

    I am trying to conduct a discussion about what may be, but I suspect is not, a highly important invention of an earthquake prediction technique. Such a tachnique, were it even only partially sucessful, would be of immense value to humanity. Such a possibility merits serious attention: the idea should be assessed, rejected if it seems invalid, supported if it shows promise.

    Such an assessment requires, as is the way of science, a critique of the idea. Before the idea can be properly critiqued it must be properly defined. I have attempted to get that improved definition from you. Others have attempted to get that definition from you. You have failed to offer that improved defintition.

    Thus I have been left with the unscientific, poorly presented suite of videos. I have offered commentary on these and welcomed responses from you as to each point I have raised. You have chosen not to respond, but instead have pursued a bizarre attack on me personally. This attack has been irrelevant and inaccurate in equal measure. It certainly has done nothing to advance the cause of Berger's proposed detection system.

    When you are prepared to behave in a mature manner and address the substance of Berger's claims and the questions arising therefrom I shall be prepared to reenter this discussion. Until then, I shall withdraw, with the proviso that I shall continue to comment on any further nonsense you post, at my discretion.
     

  44. #43  
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    thread closed - reason : thread appears to be going nowhere
    "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." (Philip K. Dick)
     

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