Thread: Yellowstone, could the end be near?

Disturbing activity in Yellowstone in the past week, so much so to cause alarm.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXbr6Dp45Gg
http://www.nationalledger.com/artman...72624397.shtml
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,473925,00.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...-SpOwD95CL4J80

And there all within a day or two from each other :?
They have never observed this much activity all at once.

Your thoughts?

First a question: What exactly do you mean by end?

The youtube link is interesting. thanks for the link.

Originally Posted by ronan

They have never observed this much activity all at once.

Your thoughts?

Actually from the links provided it states that it has bee quit a while since this much activity occurred but it is not the first time.


Personally I think it is stress being releived along a fracture zone rather then major magma movement.

What exactly do you mean by end?

it was just a question, it is possible that it could in fact blow we are sure overdue for it .
In my mind it (most likely) will not erupt, but that does not mean its not cause for alarm! just wonted your input on it

Actually from the links provided it states that it has bee quit a while since this much activity occurred but it is not the first time.

Thank you for correcting me

So far as I know, this activity isn't that unusual. It doesn't happen every day or anything, but it's far from out of the ordinary. People just panic every time there's a little rumble from the thing.

Start worrying only when we see harmonic tremors. That would mean the magma chamber is pressurising. None of those so far.

imo it would be far more worrying if all activity stopped all of a sudden : that might be an indication that a big burp is brewing

This amount of activity is not unique.
A further eruption is not overdue.
It is interesting if you are a seismologist focused on Yellowstone, otherwise it is of no significance or interest.

nah I doubt there is any significant danger, with volcanoes and earthquakes, numerous is ok, it's the abnormalities that are deadly

the quakes appear to be fairly consistant, and although are many, none are big enough to cause problems


if there was say, one in the whole year and it was completely out of proportion to records, then we should be concerned

It seems like the tabloids are exploiting this to it's fullest extent. Despite assurance from many within the scientific community, one cannot help but speculate the plausibility of these things. Guesswork alone is not enough, and like the gentleman below states about the reliability of such a forecast, we would obviously be taking a shot in the dark. Mayan calendar aside, I think a far more threatening idea is the Yellowstone caldera. I haven't heard much recently about what measures FEMA is taking if any. I don't think a decent amount of people are aware of this, and this happens to be one of those speculation situations. Opinions? Facts?

Some say the magnetic polar shift that will "occur" in 2012, may be the cause for significant enough disruption to "blow the lid off" Yellowstone caldera. Would you agree that given a magnetic change of that magnitude, it would indeed make more than just Yellowstone erupt? And jeez, what must the people in Wyoming think? I live in Colorado, and I want to move back to Michigan because of concept.

I also live in Colorado and I ain't going nowhere.

The USGS discounted chances for cataclysmic eruption of the caldera, noting that the hot, active magma chamber below Yellowstone has turned into "largely crystallized mush."

(Time)

If the Yellowstone Caldera erupts, you're talking about the entire continental United States covered in ash. A bit beyond FEMAs logistical abilities Probably a collapse of global civilization, if not outright human extinction. It's right up there with asteroid impact. And likewise isn't something to really plan around, since it's way too destructive and way too unlikely.

It's not something to lose sleep over And I wouldn't hold my breath for an eruption (or anything special) happening in 2012 or 2020 or 2042 or any other "special" year you can come up with. Honestly how far into the future do we have to go before we run out of doomsday dates? Does anyone remember the big doomsday event of 1000 AD?

Originally Posted by IcarusI

Opinions? Facts?

Yellowstone will almost certainly blow in the near future. The eruption will have effects that could range from devastating to catastrophic, certainly for North America and probably for the entire planet. It is also possible that another supervolcano on the planet, perhaps as yet unidentified, could erupt before Yellowstone blows.

For the record, somewhere in the near future means within the next 100,000 years. I would be surprised if we had to wait more than that.

Originally Posted by IcarusI

Some say the magnetic polar shift that will "occur" in 2012, may be the cause for significant enough disruption to "blow the lid off" Yellowstone caldera. Would you agree that given a magnetic change of that magnitude, it would indeed make more than just Yellowstone erupt?

first of all, a magnetic polar shift (i assume the one where north becomes south and vice versa, not merely polar wandering) does not happen overnight, not even in a single year

secondly, i'm not aware of any literature linking magnetic reversals with earthquakes and/or volcanic eruptions

the only thing that i can see "blowing the lid off" is a giant blob of magma rising to the surface
i don't know whether we have the tools yet to measure the flow in hot spot plumes, but that's the critical factor

Moderator mode:
Hmm, it does not really look like an astrophysical topic. I think, it is better placed in earth sciences. So, I move it there.

Cheers,
Dishmaster.

both yellowstone threads merged - hope this doesn't make the discussion of the last 8 hours too confusing

Originally Posted by marnixR

first of all, a magnetic polar shift does not happen overnight, not even in a single year

Indeed, we are talking of the order of 1000 years. We probably won't recognise it for certain until we have been in the transition for a century or so. We may be in it now. The field is doing some interesting things.

Originally Posted by marnixR

secondly, i'm not aware of any literature linking magnetic reversals with earthquakes and/or volcanic eruptions

I've racked my brain, as an intellectual exercise, to come up with a mechnism that could provide a link. I drew a blank.

Originally Posted by marnixR

i don't know whether we have the tools yet to measure the flow in hot spot plumes, but that's the critical factor

I believe we can estimate the volume of magma that is on the move from the magnitudes of the associated tremors.

Originally Posted by John Galt

Originally Posted by marnixR

first of all, a magnetic polar shift does not happen overnight, not even in a single year

Indeed, we are talking of the order of 1000 years. We probably won't recognise it for certain until we have been in the transition for a century or so. We may be in it now. The field is doing some interesting things.

I wasn't aware we understood the mechanism that causes the polar shift, nor how it happens. If it is understood, I would like to know how it works

Originally Posted by drowsy turtle

I wasn't aware we understood the mechanism that causes the polar shift, nor how it happens. If it is understood, I would like to know how it works

There are a handful of competing theories. All are based, I think, upon the origin of the field being a self exciting dynamo arising in the circulating molten outer core. Energy to power this is largely derived from solidification of the inner core.

At least one of the theories has been able to mimic the anticipated changes in field strength and direction when modelled by finite element analysis. I can't lay my hands on specific references, but there was a cover article on this in Scientific American about four years ago.

The present rapid movement of the north magnetic pole, the general decline in field strength since a peak around 1,000 years ago and the appearance and enlargement of the South Atlantic Anomaly are all typical of the kind of variations we would expect during the early stages of a reversal event.

Originally Posted by IcarusI

Some say the magnetic polar shift that will "occur" in 2012, may be the cause for significant enough disruption to "blow the lid off" Yellowstone caldera. Would you agree that given a magnetic change of that magnitude, it would indeed make more than just Yellowstone erupt? And jeez, what must the people in Wyoming think? I live in Colorado, and I want to move back to Michigan because of concept.

Allow me t tell you off here and then get delve into the depths of human psychology and philosophy.

Okay, the 2012 magnetic flip you speak of was also supposed to happen in 2000 and also in 1984. In truth, the 2012 hype is due to the Mayan calender ending in 2012, and we as humans like patterns (thats how our brain works)

Mathematics is a human concept, not a natural one. It is our "DirectX" if you like. (DirectX is a programming framework that is used on computers as a "go between" the computers hardware and a computer game.) Mathematics, like wise is a "framework" of how wee see the universe and interact with it. The quantum world is a puzzling one, that is because it ISNT based on maths. Hope you can see where im going with this one; Yellowstone is cause for concern, but so are many other things. We are so reliant on technology these days and that could be our downfall. Since the evolution of the SATNAV, I know many friends that cannot even read a map. My point is, if yellowstone were to erupt and cover the enter united states in ash it would spell disaster for the rest of the world too as we have a world economy. Okay, I am getting bored of typing now, I could write an essay on this, but I won't. If yellowstone blows it blows. If I get hit by a bus tommorrow, then ill get hit by a bus tommorrow; but I sure wont be loosing any sleep over it.

I think that there are 3 candidates for being a super volcano. There is Yellowstone as already noted. There is a site in the Aleutians. Not sure where the other is located.

The last time that Yellowstone went off with a cataclysmic bang was some 600, 000 years ago. People are here as are all of the other plants and animals we see today. So it won't be the end of the world. Won't be good, but it won't end everything.

The previous reversal of the earth's magnetic field is 780,000 years ago. Not even close to the last Yellowstone super event. I suggest that means that even if the 2012 prediction is right about the reversal that is an event independent of anything happening at Yellowstone.

Indeed. The period between polar reversals ranges from 10,000 years to 3,000,000 years. There is much less variation in supervolcano eruptions.

Originally Posted by ronan

Disturbing activity in Yellowstone in the past week, so much so to cause alarm.

And there all within a day or two from each other :?
They have never observed this much activity all at once.

Your thoughts?

Anything can happen.

If that is so, and what's left is the dregs sort of explains a lot, doesn't it?