Thread: 21st century financial superpower.

To get things started, I'll pick Europe.

I've never thought of myself as a European (rather than British) and still don't, but over the last year (since i have had an internet connection) i have been able to read what other people from outside the EU think about it. The first thing that i noticed was that many see it as a single country with a single outlook on the world trying to compete with the USA. Maybe it's because i'm on the inside looking out, but it never entered my mind that there were Europeans with the desire to turn Europe into a superpower or at the very lest to make it into something that can have some political influence in the world. I thought that it was only for social and economics reasons that we had the EU, increase trade and the freedom to work and live anywhere inside of it, but some people are pushing for it to be more than that.

If the country's of Europe do manage to unite under one flag i think that it has all the necessary items needed to be the worlds financial superpower. Good social and political connections all over the world and very mixed economy. A large work force, some of which (western Europe) is as well educated as anywhere else in the world, plus a cheap and hard working work force in eastern Europe. Raw materials might be a problem but Europe is close to most other regions in the world that have those.

So which do you think ?

The soviet union just broke up, and here we are trying to create another monster, I'd prefer to see the whole fuse together but I reckon that will only happen in a 'nuclear sense' ....

If it was 1907 and the same question was asked avout the economic powers by the end of the 20th century?

Many would have said the USA, Germany and Great Britain. At the end of the century it was those 3 and the addition of Japan and to a lesser extent France, Italy and Canada (members of the G7).

At the end of the 21st century there may not be divisions between nations as we know it today. There may be political divisions but economic divisions will be fluid and less geographic based.

Britain is not an economic power, we may have been a 'super power' at the turn of the twentieth century, but even countries like Italy have a higher standard of living than we do these days. Two world wars and a century of mismanagement killed any standing we had in the world, today I think we only have about 22 capital naval vessels!.

Originally Posted by Megabrain

Two world wars and a century of mismanagement killed any standing we had in the world, today I think we only have about 22 capital naval vessels!.

I think we're talking about economics here :P But yea, if there'd ever be a 5th Dutch-English naval war I wouldn't place my bets on you guys

I mostly agree with Jelly, it's not really about different countries or area's anymore. For example some of the worlds biggest banks are based in the Netherlands, but that doesn't mean we are a financial superpower. There are just some headoffices here, but the money isn't bound to the place. In the end it's not really bound to any place. When you're talking about finance I think firms are a more relevant unit than countries or area's.

I chose China. My dads company, where he is a vice president, ships some of its materials there to be built because the labor is cheap.

Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger. I've already told him how I felt about his treason. :x

Bee

Well, your dad's 'treason' doesn't have to be so bad :wink: Every international economic theory I know stresses that moving labour intensive production to places where labour is abundent and cheap makes perfect sense. What we do have to worry about in the 'the west' is to keep less labour intensive jobs, like management, research and highly skilled labour in our own countries. As long as we retain these the losses of lower skilled labourers (who loose their jobs to low-wage countries) can be softened by redistributing the gains made by consumers, higher skilled labourers and factory owners (who all gain from the higher efficiency caused by moving production to low-wage countries). But once we start losing this it would be time to get worried.

And another issue is that while wages payed by 'western' firms in low-wage countries are usually fine (domestic level or above), labour standards of safety and worker rights are often way below our standards. This in turn threatens labour standards in our own countries: if workers would protest against longer working hours or more dangerous machines, the firm could just threaten to move to countries without strong unions (and without other employment opportunities, so people have to take any job they can get). That's something we have to keep a close eye on (especially consumers, we have the power to punish any wrongdo-ers). So as long as your dad's firm respects reasonable labour standards, I wouldn't convict him for treason :wink:

Originally Posted by Pendragon

Originally Posted by Megabrain

Two world wars and a century of mismanagement killed any standing we had in the world, today I think we only have about 22 capital naval vessels!.

I think we're talking about economics here :P But yea, if there'd ever be a 5th Dutch-English naval war I wouldn't place my bets on you guys

Well it has been fairly evenly matched over the years, more posturing I suspect than outright conflicts, yeah the people would certainly give in, you couldn't make a worse job than the current government....

My point was that the economic devastation of wars almost certainly means it would take a long time to crawl back up, especially with the competiton being so much more competitive these days.

the political, natural resources, population and infrastructure of a nation, will determine the future economical power. to become this China, Russia will have to make dramatic changes in political. Europe in general will need to get off the social bandwagon and the US will need to be careful of that bandwagon. Korea, Japan and Taiwan are mini powers today and will remain so for some time, but lack the populations and natural resources to do much more.

India, has the climate for growth, as well as world location to the masses. they will benefit, from both China and Russia, as well as internal growth.

i don't think the US would have been picked by all that many at the turn of the 20th century and showed no signs until after WW II, of becoming an economic power. the potential for continuation is there and i suspect will be maintained through much of the 21st century. India a close second.
China a third place likely, then Russia, Canada and what will become a South American community.

Originally Posted by Pendragon

Originally Posted by Megabrain

Two world wars and a century of mismanagement killed any standing we had in the world, today I think we only have about 22 capital naval vessels!.

I think we're talking about economics here :P But yea, if there'd ever be a 5th Dutch-English naval war I wouldn't place my bets on you guys

I mostly agree with Jelly, it's not really about different countries or area's anymore. For example some of the worlds biggest banks are based in the Netherlands, but that doesn't mean we are a financial superpower. There are just some headoffices here, but the money isn't bound to the place. In the end it's not really bound to any place. When you're talking about finance I think firms are a more relevant unit than countries or area's.

The Danish threatened to invade Canada last year over some little 'rock' in the Arctic off Greenland. The war has been postponed until one of us builds a decent naval ship. The Danes have a war ship they might pull out of storage for an invasion. First, however, they want to scrub off the grafitti..someguy called Lief Erickson scribble all over it .

"The Vikings are invading..again, Want to go down to the shore and stop the pillaging and looting?"

"Depends. Isn't there a hockey game on T.V. tonight?"

LOL ^^^

Good point Pendragon-Jellyologist, but those banks do make a lot of their money in certain places in the world.

But what about India's infrastructure ? I thought that was major problem.

And perhaps the Americans here could tell me a bit about your national debt, i have read that the interest alone is $400 billion dollars each year, is there any plans to start playing of this debt ? If not, will it be a problem ?

-------------

Rule, britannia, britannia rules the waves, britons never will be slaves. (except maybe to the EU)

It's not "Never will" it's "Never never never shall" ! - If our own people can't sing a patriotic song what chance have we of ruling the world again?

Nope, your wrong. It's changed, new eu directive. :wink:

yes, the US payments on interest for debts owed are near that 400bpy figure and yes there are potential problems. the primary problems are the dependency which comes from those who hold most the debt, such as China, Japan and many countries which could cash in so to speak. second is the inflationary issue, which could come from this. the US could print money today, covering the entire debt. this would in the end effect our population the most as everything would simply cost much more, or the dollar value reduced in a short period. the off-set to an extreme in a short time are staggered loans, 10 to 30 maturing certificate and at the current very low interest rates. in short, you can watch the current 30 year rates, now about 5.5% and figure the potential problem for 30 years ahead.

as for India's infrastructure, the Central and Northern areas have a fairly sound system. some southern areas lack this but are building fast. they also have 1.2 billion people, already building equity in there country. China, lacks this and though building rapidly, outside metropolitan areas, ox driven carts still the rule.

aside from developing unfavorable conditions for business in Europe, with mandates and labor controls, the overall populations are stagnate or decreasing. these are very important factors in economic growth. like it or not, Europe, may have already gone to far to turn back on socialistic policies.

Thanks for the reply.

Originally Posted by jackson33

aside from developing unfavorable conditions for business in Europe, with mandates and labor controls, the overall populations are stagnate or decreasing. these are very important factors in economic growth. like it or not, Europe, may have already gone to far to turn back on socialistic policies.

This is all very true, but there does seem to be small changes happening. A lot of European country's are changing away from left wing politics, even the French are looking to raise to number of working hours and raise the retirement age. The reason i think Europe might be the top dog come the end of the century is mainly because of eastern Europe, who's tax rate is very low compared to "old Europe" and the US. It also has a very high level of economic growth. Due to old Europe's company's moving services and industries to eastern europe, i think, may in time force those countries to start lowering their own tax rates increasing Europe's internal competitiveness and therefor global competitiveness as well.

The sticking points are welfare and working age. The working age i can't see being so much of a problem as most country's are all ready increasing their retirement age (i myself will be 69 before i can claim a state pension) although Germany, France and Italy are having some problems trying to get this though. Welfare is going to be the main problem, even Britain who is the most right wing of all the large European country's has a higher level of government spending per-person than the US, Japan or China. I can only hope that with competition with eastern europe/rest of the world and a realisation that it is unsustainable, old Europe will in time change. This require strong leadership as it is the people that oppose such changes not the politicians.

Cat; i realize Europe is trying to change. certainly the US will benefit from any change toward capitalism or leave business alone to work. my opinion is they may, or many countries, have gone past the line with no return. my concern for the US, is they are well on the way to socialism, in public opinion if not government programs. achievement is an individual event and the more government dependency becomes the rule the less any achievement is a desired goal...levels of achievement of no importance.

Germany; w/o getting into politics; General Motors and Wal Mart have pulled out, for primarily labor problems. neither has this problem in China, India or for that matter Mexico. additionally for differing reasons German and Japanese firms are in the US and doing very well.

in short i feel the world economy will be substantially better toward 2100 and all nations will share, contrary to the 20th century or the 1900's.
the US brought women into the picture in the 1940's and all the minorities over the next 40 years. i credit this for much of the success seen. my views are based on current perceived and indicated attitudes toward business. what happens later, would be a guess, but how these perceived problems became, did take some time...

OTHER - Australia isnt on the list! and no laughing our Dollar keeps climbing against all currencies majority speaking the US $ and Pound! Sorry dont have a pound button on our keyboards hehe.

Problemed

Originally Posted by Problemed

OTHER - Australia isnt on the list! and no laughing our Dollar keeps climbing against all currencies majority speaking the US $ and Pound! Sorry dont have a pound button on our keyboards hehe.

Problemed

NO pound button on Australien Keyboards? - No wonder you're not on the list...

Originally Posted by Problemed

OTHER - Australia isnt on the list! and no laughing our Dollar keeps climbing against all currencies majority speaking the US $ and Pound! Sorry dont have a pound button on our keyboards hehe.

Problemed

anything can happen; however Australia's current GDP is about 665 billion, and ranked 19th. Mexico and Canada at about 1.2 trillion each, for a comparison. the US and European Community with about 13 trillion each and the world total about 65 trillion. maybe better to hold off for the 23rd century, predictions....

against the US dollar, most all currencies are rising. the pound, euro and Canadian dollar are all well up, over the past year or so....as a capitalistic country we like this, as some of our products are more in line with products of the nations where this is happening...

tis ok for a small history and population a bit over 20 million now! Yeah shocking no pound button lol, i think if u hold alt key and press 3 digits you get it but cant member forsure!

Anyway Australia has lots of improvements to come with our largest exports being the Wiggles and Wine Spirits and Premium Beer we could push our market a little harder, Tourism each year bar 2000 where it boomed due to Olympics has pushed up a substantial percentage, doing good for the economy. Shame Australia's main population growth is due to migration not a boom from within the country (entirely non racial that comment as well). Overall tho pretty good country to live in the Piss (Beer) is cheap taste can have a party outdoors any day of the week month year, cause we never get rain (Australian Joke - big drought at the moment) so year, come visit someone will shout you a beer! :wink: Cheers Mate!! lol

Problemed

I hear there's talk of middle east oil going to the Euro. I think it's all about who's currency is seen as being the most credible. If the USA pulls itself together, we might keep our standing. If not........ well........ just for the sake of novelty people might decide they want a new currency, and the euro is probably the #2 thing going right now.

the value of a national currency is based on a number of things, however that nations inflationary pressure will cause most any problem. this pressure in most places far surpasses the US.

if the price of crude where to float with the Euro, the dollar would increase in value the same day, making that change a very bad idea. i wish they would, but highly unlikely since the number one purchaser of oil is by far and away are US International Companies.

what you have been hearing, probably relates to investment. these have paid off and investments in the Euro have been substantiated over the past two years. personally i have had some luck in buying foreign stocks and the general investment consensus seems to be continuing along this line. although not my cup of tea, remember the American Exxon/Mobile is 70% foreign and 30% US with regards to sales. of the 30 Dow Stocks, 30 have some to large degrees of foreign sales and/or services on there bottom line results.