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Thread: Collapse of U.S. economy is predicted

  1. #1 Collapse of U.S. economy is predicted 
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    Last edited by Stanley514; September 6th, 2017 at 08:25 PM.
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    Yes. Yes. Gloom and doom. "We're all gonna die!!!" How old are you Stanley? I am in my mid-fifties now and I can't remember a time in my teenage or adult life when there wasn't some expert predicting imminent economic collapse within the next 55 seconds. One almost wishes it would just happen already so such experts would be as broke as the rest of us.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Stanley514 View Post
    One more time collapse of U.S. and possibly world economy is predicted.
    The 25-Year Great Depression
    You comments...
    The moves being made by China and others to shift from the US Dollar to another currency as the worlds global reserve is to prevent, protect and shelter, as best as they can, their own economies from the problem that is the US and the US Dollar.

    China has been using fiat US dollars and others, at a neck breaking pace, to snap up massive amounts of real physical assets. Gold, silver, energy, mines, farms, etc...
    While at the same time, trashing US monetary policies and the US dollar to anyone and everyone who will listen, and just about everyone is listening and starting to agree with China.

    The "depression" to come will not be a global depression, it will mainly be an American depression. The only way it becomes a global depression is if the US Government, as the fiat dollar dies, starts WWIII in a desperate attempt to regain power and wealth.

    The US, and I lover her dearly, has lost the currency war. We foolishly labelled it, called it and fought it as a war to devalue ones own currency while trying to strengthen others currencies but, we got it wrong. It has never been about weaker or stronger fiat currencies, fiat trade surplus' or deficits... It was, has been and is about owning real physical assets, real value and wealth.

    The US, politicians in the US, have been so blindly and foolishly consumed with protecting their precious fiat dollar that they completely failed to realize what this war was about. The minute they heard or thought it was about devaluing the dollar, and the perverted solution was to create more fiat dollars and spend them, their endless greed and glut became fully aroused and it was a task they could easily accomplish (decades of practice prepared them perfectly for the task at hand).

    Of course greed and theft is accompanied by vanity and foolishness, and so the US government has been, and still is, spending these dollars to consume resources, not to purchase assets or to invest in the future.

    The next global reserve currency will be backed by real physical assets. China has been, for more than a few years now, buying up every real physical asset they can. They will control the next global reserve.
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  5. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by 甘肃人 View Post
    Yes. Yes. Gloom and doom. "We're all gonna die!!!" How old are you Stanley? I am in my mid-fifties now and I can't remember a time in my teenage or adult life when there wasn't some expert predicting imminent economic collapse within the next 55 seconds. One almost wishes it would just happen already so such experts would be as broke as the rest of us.
    Its not about doom, gloom or dislike for most, its simply about awareness and hoping people can be a little prepared.

    I have heard many quacks and quack ideas over the years as well but, the fiat dollars relatively near end is not one of them. In fact, anyone with half a pea for a brain can do the simple math required to understand and know something is very wrong concerning the American fiat dollar.

    I for one hope everyone is a bit prepared.
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  6. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stanley514 View Post
    One more time collapse of U.S. and possibly world economy is predicted.
    The 25-Year Great Depression
    You comments...
    I think this is about the fourth prediction of collapse of the US economy here in as many years. We had Futilitist, who predicted the rioting might start in the summer of 2013, but certainly by 2014 the US economy would be collapsing due to the lack of oil. BillyT who predicts a run on the dollar by this Halloween. Michael who regularly predicts the end.

    Then there are the professionals - Igor Panarin, who predicted that the US would collapse into five pieces by 2010. Mike Adams, who predicted that by 2013, Obama would have confiscated all our guns, declared martial (and Sharia) law and rescinded the Constitution.

    However, even recent predictions pale in comparison to the predictions being made in the 1950's and 60's, when there was a real threat of imminent apocalypse from a trigger-happy USSR. Or during the 1940's, when there was a real threat of the US losing the upcoming world war to a nuclear-armed Germany. Or during the Great War at the beginning of the century. Or during the 1860's, when the US tore itself into two pieces, and was reunited only by US soldiers killing hundreds of thousands of US citizens.

    So overall, while we have a whole lot of problems to deal with (the debt, climate change, religious extremism, terrorism, disease and pollution) it's a good idea to keep it all in perspective. Compared to 1862, 1942, or 1962, we're not doing so badly.
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    The big problem I fore see for the USA in the future would be after the world recession fully turns around. The US government is only able to maintain the gigantic debt it is carrying because interest rates are very low. If those interest rates rise, the burden created by that debt will rise with it.

    I suppose the Federal Reserve could step in and wave a magic wand, but that would be a major reshaping of the USA financial system. It would call the US dollar into question around the world, and potentially deprive it of its "reserve currency" status. ..... which, now that I think of it,.... it's likely going to lose anyway.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kojax View Post
    The big problem I fore see for the USA in the future would be after the world recession fully turns around. The US government is only able to maintain the gigantic debt it is carrying because interest rates are very low. If those interest rates rise, the burden created by that debt will rise with it.

    I suppose the Federal Reserve could step in and wave a magic wand, but that would be a major reshaping of the USA financial system. It would call the US dollar into question around the world, and potentially deprive it of its "reserve currency" status. ..... which, now that I think of it,.... it's likely going to lose anyway.
    The Fed's massive quantitative easing program has fuelled asset bubbles everywhere you look which are hardly based on solid fundamentals. I have less concern over the US governments gigantic debt than another major shakeout in global asset markets triggerred by say geopolitical uncertainty that is not factored into global asset prices or say a rise in global interest rates (bond yields) not triggerred by the Fed. So much intervention has made it near impossible to determine fair value in almost all asset classes.......*puts tin foil hat back on head*. :-(
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    Quote Originally Posted by kojax View Post
    The big problem I fore see for the USA in the future would be after the world recession fully turns around. The US government is only able to maintain the gigantic debt it is carrying because interest rates are very low. If those interest rates rise, the burden created by that debt will rise with it.
    And if inflation rises, it becomes easier to pay off the debt - which is why there's any hope of paying it off at all. (Needless to say, hoping that happens is not sound economic policy.)
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    The US will never default on fiat dollar debt. It doesn't matter if interest rates are 1% or 100%. If the world was told in the 1970s that the US, by 2014, would agree to create and add/introduce (debt paid) some 17 trillion more dollars into circulation, they would have thought you mad, they would have thought it was impossible.

    Trillions in debt seemed impossible and down right mad before the 1980s, and yet, the trillions became, and are now, the norm for us today... For us its the gazillions that seem mad at this point in time but, and if, today's fiat dollar continues to exist, debt in the gazillions will be the norm of the not so distant tomorrow.
    Last edited by gonzales56; September 23rd, 2014 at 02:55 PM.
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  11. #10  
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    That's true. Since the Federal Reserve has already started buying T-bills, we're well on our way to simply using inflation to get out of debt.

    I think right now that the Fed is probably planning to redeem those T-bills later. But if it wanted to, it could simply forgive them. We'll see which way things go when we're 30 trillion in debt, or 100 trillion in debt, I guess.
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    It's funny to me that so many economists are still committed to a system that requires perpetual debt spending in order to remain operational, and shows basically no sign that it will ever stop needing that.

    It's the only way to compensate for excessive investment risk. Investment risk is the opposite of the free lunch. It's the lunch you paid for and don't get to eat. A small amount of it is impossible to avoid. A large amount of it is poison to the economy.

    The great goal of Adam Smith style capitalism is to eliminate all forms of protectionism (like collusion, ... etc...) But the alternative to allowing a small amount of protectionism is allowing an unacceptably large amount of risk. Risk mitigation is what protectionism is for. A small amount of it is good. Too much of it is bad. Like most other aspects of economics, it's about striking a harmonious balance between various opposites.
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    Last edited by Stanley514; September 6th, 2017 at 08:25 PM.
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    The "system" a lot of American political pundits propose is one where everything is deregulated to the furthest extreme possible, and "protectionism" is spoken in a way that makes it sound like a naughty word. While "free market" is spoken in reverent tones, like as if it were the name of god.

    Globalization is an attempt to eliminate tariffs, because they are seen as "protectionism", and standing in the way of the "free market". But once the tariffs are gone, there is nothing to mitigate the risk for investors. What replaces tariffs is currency barriers, and the currencies are able to fluctuate wildly, and every time they fluctuate, some investor somewhere loses everything they've put out onto the market.

    Another investor wins, sure, but not nearly as much as the other loses. And often it is the same investor who won and lost, because most big investors have diversified portfolios.
    Last edited by kojax; September 25th, 2014 at 10:26 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kojax View Post
    That's true. Since the Federal Reserve has already started buying T-bills, we're well on our way to simply using inflation to get out of debt.

    I think right now that the Fed is probably planning to redeem those T-bills later. But if it wanted to, it could simply forgive them. We'll see which way things go when we're 30 trillion in debt, or 100 trillion in debt, I guess.
    The federal reserve is kin to the united states post office. The only difference is in the jobs they do.

    Here is how it works for those who dont understand how the greatest financial crime in recorded history is happening. Congress created the department of treasury and the federal reserve. Congress wants money so they tell the treasury to give the federal reserve a piece of paper with an amount of money on it to be created. The federal reserve takes that note and creates the money out of thin air and gives it to the treasury. The treasury lets congress know when they got the money and congress spends it.
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    It strikes me as strange that the trigger that sparked the GFC was loose prudential lending standards associated with the mortgage industry, yet now it is regarded as 'prudent' for a country to turn on it's printing presses to avoid the necessary unpopular decisions that need to be made and superficially prop up it's fractured financial markets in order to bury itself deeper in debt.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Implicate Order View Post
    It strikes me as strange that the trigger that sparked the GFC was loose prudential lending standards associated with the mortgage industry, yet now it is regarded as 'prudent' for a country to turn on it's printing presses to avoid the necessary unpopular decisions that need to be made and superficially prop up it's fractured financial markets in order to bury itself deeper in debt.
    These crooks, I mean government politicians, in their unquenchable greed, have screwed the pooch on this one. The economic policy, game, to teeter back and forth between and towards horrible economic disasters in order to confuse, hide and mask their theft (creating fiat currency out of thin air and spending it) and the inevitable outcome of that theft.

    When the fiat theft economy swings noticeably towards rapid inflation or threatens to do so, they swing the fiat theft economy towards deflation, and vise-versa. The funny thing about addiction and greed is that it tends to demand a very short term thought process... The only constant, and steady tool that is swinging and is used to swing a fiat theft economy, is the theft itself. The rich steadily march towards being richer and the poor are steadily whipped towards being poorer. In a fiat theft economy, the theft itself is the reason and it creates the tool, stagflation, that allows governments to swing from one economic cliff to another. However, and what simple minded people fail to realize is that they are simply being dangled then shifted from one cliff to another, with a slight breather between (which gives them a false sense of security/relief/hope/confidence in government) but, the drop off and damage increases with each shift/teeter, and one day, the people and the economy will fall.

    The rich are receiving trillions of fiat dollars each year right now. It is this money, these fiat dollars that are giving the illusion that the global economy is out of the ICU and stable... Of course its not but, what can they do now?

    1. Keep giving themselves trillions and trillions of dollars to spend
    2. Stop the theft and give that money to common folks
    3. Drop common folks off the cliff

    If they keep up the theft and appearances, stagflation takes a firm grip on the global economy.

    If they stop the theft (for now) and give the trillions and trillions of dollars to the people so they can fuel the economy, run away inflation takes hold.

    If they stop the theft by simply dropping people off the cliff it will cause rapid suffering and death.

    Whatever choice they make its not going to be pretty... They will use selected and calculated decisions to bring about change, all of which, will bring suffering and death. War, virus, flu, disease etc.. A combination of calculated decisions and planned actions will be carried out and sold as unavoidable man made or natural causes to explain why they are exempt from blame, and are in fact, nothing short of hero's.
    Last edited by gonzales56; September 30th, 2014 at 12:54 AM.
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    In short... Loose lending of real wealth is simply lost/transferred, no harm but to and for those individuals who made poor or bad decisions and who have the right to do so, no foul.

    However, in a fiat theft economy, giving fiat currency created out of nothing to people for real assets creates an artificial and false fiat price for the real asset (a bs bubble) that spreads fiat theft inflation (bs bubbles) like wildfire across multiple assets.

    Fiat bubbles are not real. They have to pop and they have to be popped by the thieves who started them in the first place, government, or hyper inflation will destroy the fiat currency.

    Everything about the global economy is in a bubble right now. Theft is high, its just governments and banks that are doing all the stealing. They are going to have to pop their own theft bubbles though.

    Who will be holding the bags when the bubbles pop? You see, this time its governments and banks holding all the bags. Last time it was the people who suffered and a few banks who got bailed out.. What about this time? Trillions of government and bank fiat currencies are driving the global bubbles. Its going to be wild when these bubbles start popping and governments and banks rush to physical assets. The people that have things governments and banks want to hold as assets will be ok.. all those who dont, they will not be ok.
    Last edited by gonzales56; September 30th, 2014 at 01:29 AM.
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