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Thread: U.S. ecanomy contracts, stock markets grow???

  1. #1 U.S. ecanomy contracts, stock markets grow??? 
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    Last edited by Stanley514; September 6th, 2017 at 09:25 PM.
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    That's not what it says. The "1%" is an annualized rate based on one quarter; the prior quarter had an adjusted annualized rate of 2.6%.

    Credit has gotten cheaper, much to many people's surprise the past few months, therefore getting money is less expensive compared to profit/earnings ratio: The market is adjusting accordingly. It's probably not overvalued.


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    A big feature of collapsing economies nowadays is wealthy investors who have nowhere to invest their money. They can't buy gold with it anymore, because the gold market has become a giant bubble that's just waiting to pop. Real estate already had its bubble. They don't want to just hide the money under their bed. They're happy to put it anywhere they won't lose it.

    So why don't they go out and invest in a business directly? The business would very likely fail, and they'd lose their money.

    What's left? US treasury bonds? Those are trading at "negative real interest" - which means interest that is lower than the average rate of inflation.

    These guys are just desperate not to lose all that money they've accumulated. They'll invest it in an unstable stock market if that's better than the alternatives.

    So... what I'm trying to say is: it's not that the stock market has become a better option. It's because all the other options have become worse. Right now the stock market is the least bad option they have.
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    Last edited by Stanley514; September 6th, 2017 at 09:26 PM.
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    The same data. We have a +4.1, annualized quarter followed by a +2.6 and a -2.9% one. Quarter to quarter fluctuations, even rather abrupt ones are normal.


    If it continues for another couple quarters it will be worth any concern.
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    Quote Originally Posted by kojax View Post
    A big feature of collapsing economies nowadays is wealthy investors who have nowhere to invest their money. They can't buy gold with it anymore, because the gold market has become a giant bubble that's just waiting to pop. Real estate already had its bubble. They don't want to just hide the money under their bed. They're happy to put it anywhere they won't lose it.

    So why don't they go out and invest in a business directly? The business would very likely fail, and they'd lose their money.

    What's left? US treasury bonds? Those are trading at "negative real interest" - which means interest that is lower than the average rate of inflation.

    These guys are just desperate not to lose all that money they've accumulated. They'll invest it in an unstable stock market if that's better than the alternatives.

    So... what I'm trying to say is: it's not that the stock market has become a better option. It's because all the other options have become worse. Right now the stock market is the least bad option they have.
    Like your theory. Lord knows I feel an uncomfortable uneasiness from the stock market nearly every day but I still dabble around in there. Just trying to pick safe stocks, not always a sure thing or they're too damn expensive to buy in order to accumulate a number of them that makes even a one cent rise in a share price worthwhile.
    All that belongs to human understanding, in this deep ignorance and obscurity, is to be skeptical, or at least cautious; and not to admit of any hypothesis, whatsoever; much less, of any which is supported by no appearance of probability...Hume
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    Very few "people" are investing in the stock market. Uncle Fed is pumping money into the stock market, thus the increase.

    Gold is also not in a bubble. Its actually priced very low in USD and it will cost more and more USD to purchase in time. Gold was $35 an ounce in the 1970s. It is $1200 today. In USD that's a heck of a return. In another 40 years, gold will see the same type of increase in USD it has had over the last 40 years. Everyone who has money to invest should always hold and have a percentage of their stored wealth tucked away in physical gold and/or silver.

    If the poor in the 70's purchased just 2 ounce of gold a month ($70), they would have been be able to retire today with $1.25 million in the bank. Thats right, $840 a year for 10 years would have netted them 1.25 million dollars to retire on.

    No bubbles. Gold is gold, its the increased money supply that drives the increases in USD it takes to buy gold. The money supply will continue to grow and thus the amount of dollars it takes to buy gold and silver will keep increasing.
    Last edited by gonzales56; September 14th, 2014 at 04:29 AM.
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    I don't think gold is in a bubble but I don't think $35/oz should be used as a base price because it was an artificial price. In the early 70s the US went off the gold standard the price jumped to $200/oz almost overnight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ClarenceF1 View Post
    I don't think gold is in a bubble but I don't think $35/oz should be used as a base price because it was an artificial price. In the early 70s the US went off the gold standard the price jumped to $200/oz almost overnight.
    By the time the 1970s rolled around inflation of the USD had caused $35 to be to low of a price but, when gold was adjusted from $20 to $35 dollars in 1934 gold was over priced at $35 a troy ounce. The jump in price in the 1970s from $35 to $200 was an instant counting of the inflation that occurred in the 40s, 50s and 60s. This is because Americans were not allowed to invest in or own gold bullion until the mid 1970s. US inflation met gold almost over night.

    Since 1975 for gold, and 1964 for Silver, the US government has dumped their gold and silver reserves into the market to hold down the prices of gold and silver. Those reserves are just about gone and once again, US fiat inflation will met gold and silver almost over night.

    As soon as a lot of deliveries are not being made, trillions of USD, as well as every other currency, will fight over a very limited yearly supply.

    Every year about 80-90 million ounces of gold are mined. In 2013 China used roughly 77 million ounces. In 2013 India used about 30 million ounces. Add in the rest of the world and we have a serious problem brewing... All's good for now but, reserves are gone. The United States, regardless of the claims they have made and make, did not even have the 10 million or so ounces of gold the German government deposited with the US Treasury for safe keeping. The US stole it, they used it up, they don't have it and not only do they not have Germany's gold, they have no ones gold that was deposited in the US Treasury for safe keeping. They dont even have 10 million ounces of their own gold to give Germany. Gone.

    Gold is so far below its real value in USD its not even funny. Sooner or later most Americans will realize whats going on and try to get Gold. Gold is so scarce that it can never really be in a bubble. The have's will have it and the have not's will not have it. Not enough physical gold or silver to ever be in a bubble.
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