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Thread: Cost and risk analysis

  1. #1 Cost and risk analysis 
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    Dotcomrade iceaura holds on another thread that "honest accounting" requires every conceivable contingency for mishap in nuclear power application to be taken into account.

    Dotcomrade kojax, for whom Prince has great respect, states:

    kojax

    Forum Radioactive IsotopeJoin DateMar 2007Posts4,740

    November 2nd, 2011, 07:05 AM

    Originally Posted by The Finger Prince
    Ah, yes, according to all available information, the incident at Fukushima was caused by the tsunami. One of some severity, actually, which greatly exceeded design specifications at this location. It is of interest that not all of Japan's nuclear facilities were so affected, and that all of them did, in fact, shut down, precisely as designed. The lack of availability of power is the principal cause of the overheating which precipitated the partial meltdown, as the combustion fueled backup generators flooded due to the tsunami.

    Aftermath of the 2011 T




    Yes, but those are part of reality. Flukes happen, and Fukushima's fluke disaster is unlikely to be the last. The per-event probability is not a reason they can be ignored.

    It's also possible a meteor will hit one, or a freak volcanic eruption, or maybe one of the workers in the plant will spontaneously combust and set their work place on fire. No matter how bizarre or improbable, all natural disasters have to be factored into our cost analysis.(emphasis added, Prince)




    The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to meet it.- Thucydides
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  3. #2 Cost and risk analysis 
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    Dotcomrade iceaura holds on another thread that "honest accounting" requires every conceivable contingency for mishap in nuclear power application to be taken into account.

    Dotcomrade kojax, for whom Prince has great respect, states: "Flukes happen, and Fukushima's fluke disaster is unlikely to be the last. The per-event probability is not a reason they can be ignored.

    It's also possible a meteor will hit one, or a freak volcanic eruption, or maybe one of the workers in the plant will spontaneously combust and set their work place on fire. No matter how bizarre or improbable, all natural disasters have to be factored into our cost analysis." (emphasis added, Prince)

    Keeping this in mind and with eye to rigorous honesty and EXCRUCIATING rectitude, Prince proposes all risk calculations in future for such installations include:

    Fiend Without a Face (1958) - IMDb


    The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to meet it.- Thucydides
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  4. #3  
    Time Lord
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    Imagine if the Tunguska meteor had hit an area with a nuclear power plant in it.

    Tunguska event - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    The problem is the stakes are so high. If they were smaller stakes, then clearly we'd simply ignore stuff like meteors. If once in 1000 lifetimes a meteor falls on your car and you can't make it to work, then probably your boss would understand. But when a nuclear power plant has a problem, it can be a really big problem. The kind of problem we don't want to have happen, even once in 1000 lifetimes.

    I think a micro-nuke is different, though. If the fuel rod is the size of a tictac, and a meteor hits it, we just evacuate the surrounding area for a few days and call it good. Low stakes, so we can afford to run a risk.
    Some clocks are only right twice a day, but they are still right when they are right.
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  5. #4  
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    What, more like this:

    Technology | Hyperion Power Generation


    It would have been better to have one of these at Fukushima than flaky diesel generator that flooded. Prince would think that if another Tunguska event were to occur radioactive contamination would be trivial problem by comparison. You are good sport and stay on topic, plus have imagination. It would be nice for others to comment on your scenario. Nuclear backup makes sense too as provision for removal of spent fuel there has presumably already been made, security is in place, all other relevant protocols for dealing with such materials have been thought out and implemented, or should be.

    As always, best regards to all dotcomrades.
    Last edited by The Finger Prince; November 6th, 2011 at 05:27 AM. Reason: more thoughts
    The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to meet it.- Thucydides
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  6. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by prince
    Dotcomrade iceaura holds on another thread that "honest accounting" requires every conceivable contingency for mishap in nuclear power application to be taken into account.
    Nope. Didn't say that.
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  7. #6  
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    Very well, Prince paraphrases, exact quote follows from #399 Solar Economics or Whatever, if clarification is needed, please feel invited to provide ad lib:

    "The risks, as well as the preparations and safety measures, are included in cost estimates, by the honest accountant."-iceaura

    Of which risks are you speaking? Presumably not grotesque B-movie monsters...
    The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding go out to meet it.- Thucydides
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