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Thread: Provisional vaccine for fast spreeding new viruses?

  1. #1 Provisional vaccine for fast spreeding new viruses? 
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    Developing a standard vaccine for coronavirus will take at least a few months - what might be too late.
    However, its sequence is already known, and is nearly identical - suggesting recent single point of origin for human host.

    So the question is if/how there could be quickly started production of some provisional vaccine - not perfect but fast to introduce? Also exploiting the fact that these viruses are now nearly identical.
    For example synthesizing its outside proteins and putting them on liposomes - would their introduction to blood have a chance to prepare immune system for the real virus?


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  3. #2  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    Developing a standard vaccine for coronavirus will take at least a few months - what might be too late.
    However, its sequence is already known, and is nearly identical - suggesting recent single point of origin for human host.

    So the question is if/how there could be quickly started production of some provisional vaccine - not perfect but fast to introduce? Also exploiting the fact that these viruses are now nearly identical.
    For example synthesizing its outside proteins and putting them on liposomes - would their introduction to blood have a chance to prepare immune system for the real virus?
    According to this news article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51299735. there seem to be three independent approaches being followed. However the time-consuming step seems to be the clinical trials. It looks as if it is likely to take about a year before we have something to roll out generally.


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  4. #3  
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    Fake virus: e.g. liposome exposing some material of the virus, seems easy to synthesize and safe(?) - definitely safer than the real virus, and preparation of the immune system it could provide(?) might be a matter of life and death (?)

    Sure, in normal situation there are needed time consuming clinical tests, but the question here is about situation when time is literally translated into deaths, and it is approximately known where the virus will strike?
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  5. #4  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    Fake virus: e.g. liposome exposing some material of the virus, seems easy to synthesize and safe(?) - definitely safer than the real virus, and preparation of the immune system it could provide(?) might be a matter of life and death (?)

    Sure, in normal situation there are needed time consuming clinical tests, but the question here is about situation when time is literally translated into deaths, and it is approximately known where the virus will strike?
    You always need clinical trials.
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  6. #5  
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    We are talking about exponential population growth, which in a year can easily take entire planet: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


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  7. #6  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    We are talking about exponential population growth, which in a year can easily take entire planet: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


    So? That is what the epidemic curve looks like in the early stages of any epidemic, when there is no infection control.

    You still need clinical trials, or you do not know first whether your vaccine works and second what side effects there may be.
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  8. #7  
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    But there is infection control and this exponential growth does not slow down: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

    The question to discuss here is: what if there is no time for standard protocol (~a year to vaccine) - maybe let's try a brainstorm for possibilities what could be considered?
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  9. #8  
    exchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    But there is infection control and this exponential growth does not slow down: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

    The question to discuss here is: what if there is no time for standard protocol (~a year to vaccine) - maybe let's try a brainstorm for possibilities what could be considered?
    Infection control has only just started. Its effect is obviously subject to a time lag, due to the incubation period, the lack of knowledge of how the disease spreads and the lag before people have been educated to operate it effectively. I'm sure it will be at least another month before the shape of the curve changes.

    Mortality rate seems to be 2%, but this is speculative as so many may not report being ill if they only get it slightly.

    Personally, I see no way of avoiding clinical trials before a vaccine is released for full global use. And even if that process were somehow magically sidestepped, you would still have the problem of the length of time it takes to make enough for a mass vaccination programme.

    I simply do not believe there is a way to bypass these issues.
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