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Thread: Provisional vaccine for fast spreeding new viruses?

  1. #1 Provisional vaccine for fast spreeding new viruses? 
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    Developing a standard vaccine for coronavirus will take at least a few months - what might be too late.
    However, its sequence is already known, and is nearly identical - suggesting recent single point of origin for human host.

    So the question is if/how there could be quickly started production of some provisional vaccine - not perfect but fast to introduce? Also exploiting the fact that these viruses are now nearly identical.
    For example synthesizing its outside proteins and putting them on liposomes - would their introduction to blood have a chance to prepare immune system for the real virus?


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  3. #2  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    Developing a standard vaccine for coronavirus will take at least a few months - what might be too late.
    However, its sequence is already known, and is nearly identical - suggesting recent single point of origin for human host.

    So the question is if/how there could be quickly started production of some provisional vaccine - not perfect but fast to introduce? Also exploiting the fact that these viruses are now nearly identical.
    For example synthesizing its outside proteins and putting them on liposomes - would their introduction to blood have a chance to prepare immune system for the real virus?
    According to this news article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51299735. there seem to be three independent approaches being followed. However the time-consuming step seems to be the clinical trials. It looks as if it is likely to take about a year before we have something to roll out generally.


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    Fake virus: e.g. liposome exposing some material of the virus, seems easy to synthesize and safe(?) - definitely safer than the real virus, and preparation of the immune system it could provide(?) might be a matter of life and death (?)

    Sure, in normal situation there are needed time consuming clinical tests, but the question here is about situation when time is literally translated into deaths, and it is approximately known where the virus will strike?
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  5. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    Fake virus: e.g. liposome exposing some material of the virus, seems easy to synthesize and safe(?) - definitely safer than the real virus, and preparation of the immune system it could provide(?) might be a matter of life and death (?)

    Sure, in normal situation there are needed time consuming clinical tests, but the question here is about situation when time is literally translated into deaths, and it is approximately known where the virus will strike?
    You always need clinical trials.
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  6. #5  
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    We are talking about exponential population growth, which in a year can easily take entire planet: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    We are talking about exponential population growth, which in a year can easily take entire planet: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


    So? That is what the epidemic curve looks like in the early stages of any epidemic, when there is no infection control.

    You still need clinical trials, or you do not know first whether your vaccine works and second what side effects there may be.
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  8. #7  
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    But there is infection control and this exponential growth does not slow down: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

    The question to discuss here is: what if there is no time for standard protocol (~a year to vaccine) - maybe let's try a brainstorm for possibilities what could be considered?
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  9. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    But there is infection control and this exponential growth does not slow down: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

    The question to discuss here is: what if there is no time for standard protocol (~a year to vaccine) - maybe let's try a brainstorm for possibilities what could be considered?
    Infection control has only just started. Its effect is obviously subject to a time lag, due to the incubation period, the lack of knowledge of how the disease spreads and the lag before people have been educated to operate it effectively. I'm sure it will be at least another month before the shape of the curve changes.

    Mortality rate seems to be 2%, but this is speculative as so many may not report being ill if they only get it slightly.

    Personally, I see no way of avoiding clinical trials before a vaccine is released for full global use. And even if that process were somehow magically sidestepped, you would still have the problem of the length of time it takes to make enough for a mass vaccination programme.

    I simply do not believe there is a way to bypass these issues.
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  10. #9  
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    "Researchers rush to test coronavirus vaccine in people without knowing how well it works in animals" https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/...nimal-testing/

    Good video about mechanisms of COVID-19:
    <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeh054-Hx1U" target="_blank">
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  11. #10  
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    From today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-moderna-dose

    First participant in US coronavirus vaccine trial to be given dose

    The first participant in a clinical trial for a vaccine against Covid-19 will receive an experimental dose on Monday, according to a US government official.

    The trial, taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, will involve 45 young, healthy volunteers who will be given shots of the vaccine.
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  12. #11  
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    Imperial Collage predictions for UK - to save lives with vaccine, it would be needed by November: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1962...likely-impact/
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  13. #12  
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    Good discussion about covid19 vaccine development:
    https://www.ted.com/talks/seth_berkl...avirus_vaccine

    A radical approach to speedup:
    "Should scientists infect healthy people with the coronavirus to test vaccines?": https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00927-3
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  14. #13  
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    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...inical-trials/
    They have at least 102 vaccine candidates in development worldwide. Eight of those have already entered early clinical trials in people. At least two have protected a small number of monkeys from infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes COVID-19.

    Some optimistic vaccine developers say that, if all goes perfectly, we could see large-scale production and limited deployment of vaccines as early as this fall.
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  15. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jarek Duda View Post
    https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...inical-trials/
    They have at least 102 vaccine candidates in development worldwide. Eight of those have already entered early clinical trials in people. At least two have protected a small number of monkeys from infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes COVID-19.

    Some optimistic vaccine developers say that, if all goes perfectly, we could see large-scale production and limited deployment of vaccines as early as this fall.
    Yes the Oxford trial hopes to have results from the clinical trials by June or July and they have partnered with a manufacturer to prepare production capacity without waiting for the results, in order to save time if the trials are a success.

    However it will still be several months before enough is produced and distributed to start a large scale immunisation campaign. And the trials may be unsuccessful of course, for one reason or another (lack of efficacy, side effects...).

    I continue to think that the most reasonable planning assumption is that we will not have a serious vaccination campaign under way before year end.
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  16. #15  
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    Coronavirus vaccine for 30 million Britons by September if trial succeeds
    Work by the University of Oxford to find an effective drug is "progressing well" but there are no guarantees, warns a minister.
    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...harma-11990039
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