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Thread: My creation, the butterfly effect and maths

  1. #1 My creation, the butterfly effect and maths 
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    Hi, (this question will require someone with strong maths skills)

    I’m curious as to what the likelihood of my creation is?

    This is to say that if we go back through my biological decedents right back to 1st cell life which we evolved, everything my ancestors ever did had to be done that specific way down to the tiniest detail, or else the chaos theory would have prevented ‘me’ being created.

    this exact route is actually a complex web the further back in time we get (more and more ancestors come in, of which each needed to take that exact and specific route interacting with each other and there surroundings exactly as they had) only now we ‘made it’ do we see that any and every event that ever occurred is exactly what had to happen in order for our creation to occur. Put simply, pretty much everything from the start of time had to occur EXACTLY as it did or else the butterfly effect would have produced a completely different set of circumstance that would have not resulted in the individuals we are. Consider the specific sperm that had to meet the respected eggs down your biological path, each one had to be the correct one every single time since beginning of sexual reproductive life. Before this, every single cell had to reproduce exactly how and when they did.

    Now just to push even further

    Before life the formation of earth it location and orbit round the sun, and the billions of years earth needed to get conditions perfect to even give my ‘biological timeline’ a chance. Even further back the big bang even the most incomprehensibly small anomaly or fluctuation would have prevented everything.

    When other things of chance are taken into consideration, weather, natural disasters etc… The maths are boggling if not impossible.

    The theoretical equation I propose to the probability of ever being ‘alive’

    X = 1 / (ή ≤ ∞)

    X is a person’s probability of ‘being’
    where ή is a theoretical number of immense magnitude less than or equal to infinity, (I’m weak with maths if someone can advise on the equation id be happy)

    the question hidden in here is, is there a figure that scientists estimate our probability of ever being (as in any given individual being)?


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  3. #2  
    Administrator KALSTER's Avatar
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    One could never possibly account for all the variables. Sufficed to say, it is a very very large number. But why do you want to know?


    Disclaimer: I do not declare myself to be an expert on ANY subject. If I state something as fact that is obviously wrong, please don't hesitate to correct me. I welcome such corrections in an attempt to be as truthful and accurate as possible.

    "Gullibility kills" - Carl Sagan
    "All people know the same truth. Our lives consist of how we chose to distort it." - Harry Block
    "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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  4. #3  
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    I’m just incredibly interested at the particular path that has lead to my creation and intend to research it further. if we could stand back and actually look at the probability of you and I having this conversation it is so incomprehensively small it (almost) defies belief.

    I appreciate all the variables that go into it but they are what make the figure so prestigious. Given everything I said in the first post, correct me if I’m wrong (because I may be) but it would seem that there was an infinite amount of possibilities that lead to this and in many respect we are an infinity to 1 shot!
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  5. #4  
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    i dont know how good you are with maths, but what do you make of the theoretical equation?
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  6. #5  
    Forum Cosmic Wizard paralith's Avatar
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    This article from the TalkOrigins archive discusses in detail a common creationist claim that abiogenesis is statistically impossible. I'm not saying that's what you're claiming, but a lot of the statistical issues that are important to consider when you're talking about evolution are discussed by the author, and they may help you.
    Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself; that he is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.
    ~Jean-Paul Sartre
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