November 5th, 2006, 03:48 PM
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
Hmmm....
NASA's sentry program tracks lots of rocks floating around in space, the link above takes you to the page, note in the second table the first entry, 400Megaton TNT 250Metre Diameter 2036... will come within 0.53 radius of the earth... GULP..
Or read the raw data for yourself...
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
i remember back in 2000 they said this dont remember if it was same one but i think they said back in 2000 just 34 or 36 more years and...kaboom
I only just rebuilt my shed, what a waste eh?
I think it's gonna be one helluva party the night before, get as drunk as possible, nick a police car...
Not a bad way to go if you ask me. The problem is that we would know about it right up until the last moment. Better not to know at all if it really was going to wipe us ALL out. OK to know in advance if you could survive by moving a few thousand miles to the North or South. By then though I would be to old to move, so I would rather not know it was coming.
What if we set up "in the dark" settlements where news of the asteroid was prohibited. If you wanted to be surprised by it, just move to an "ITD" community a few years in advance, and then put it out of your mind. Maybe even have regular news reports in those "ITD" communities that the asteroid was going to miss us after all, or that we had diverted it's course with nuclear bombs in space or something just to take us off our guard. We could live in some bliss then for the final few years, as long as we didn't try to establish communication with the outside world,.
No!
I wanna go to the mother of all parties, the fireworks afterwards should be spectacular!
I would agree, but I'll be 92. Just send some merciful young maidens to sooth the pain.Originally Posted by Megabrain
An impact probability of 2.2e-05 ?
I'll take my chances with that I think.
In fact, how about a little wager?
All of my worldly possessions versus yours that we've accumulated by then that it doesn't hit us on its way past. :wink:
You two have an interesting wager going then? I hold the money, OK?An impact probability of 2.2e-05 ?
I'll take my chances with that I think.
In fact, how about a little wager?
All of my worldly possessions versus yours that we've accumulated by then that it doesn't hit us on its way past. :wink:
i recall that also. think some others estimated the distance from earth should be much further.
we have experience in bombing asteroids and certainly the power to destroy that size rock, so I'll just keep paying by bills. should make for an interesting display in the night sky, for a few days though.
Oh well, maybe we can have the party when it misses!
anyway, time is running out, better get started on that to do list
I should be quite fascinated to learn of where we acquired this experience. Were we seeking weapons of mass destruction on Eros? Planning a regime change on Vesta?
Excellent idea.Now instead of one 250 metre diameter rock we have over one hundred objects the same size as the Tunguska bolide heading towards the Earth. It shold be quite a fireworks display.
Or ... how about every year in November. The Asteroid Blast. Close down a few streets down town, hire a couple of bands, free booze, free food ... just practicing for the big one.[quote]Maybe a big net? Or how about attaching a few rocket engines to divert the course just enough to miss us?Excellent idea.
[quote=bogie]Or ... how about every year in November. The Asteroid Blast. Close down a few streets down town, hire a couple of bands, free booze, free food ... just practicing for the big one.The problem with attaching rocket engines is that many if not all thes e objects are spinning and therefore would need to be fired intermittently, reducing the efectiveness and causing unneccessary strain on the engine, valves and control system.Maybe a big net? Or how about attaching a few rocket engines to divert the course just enough to miss us?Excellent idea.
Gravity towing is by far the better solution, and uses less energy.
we recently sent a probe out to an active asteroid and shot a little explosive at it. we were not attempting to alter its course or destroy it but to determine its make up. you know of this and the findings so am not going to research names.I should be quite fascinated to learn of where we acquired this experience. Were we seeking weapons of mass destruction on Eros? Planning a regime change on Vesta?
Excellent idea.
i have no idea what the expected item is composed of, nor do you. the
logical thing today, would be alter the course (if on direct path). in a few years I'd hope technology will advance. yes if given a choice, I'd rather have 250 small hits than a single one. something tells me the small units will be pretty much be gone when they hit. if not they will have a 70% change of hitting water. put another way survival of a cluster bombing and that of an atomic bomb are well documented.
mega; we would no doubt shoot a pretty good chunk of this thing well out in space changing its mass and trajectory. our buster bombs penetrate earth to 50-60 feet. we can produce such a bomb to go much deeper but is not currently practical. if a slid rock, it will accomplish what i suggest. frankly we have now, the capability to send 100 or 500 such units well into space if needed, months in advance of any impact.
The idea of smashing something up has been ruled out by NASA, their current thought is to send a 25 ton spacecraft alongside the rock. The gravitational attraction of this spacecraft would pull the rock towards it, after a year of travelling alongside the deviation would be enough to ensure the rock would 'skim the upper atmosphere or miss altogether.
You'd need a lot more than 25 tons of explosive to achieve the same effect, you would only have one shot. The gravitational tow allows for a non-contact, non destructive solution where control can be maintained over a long period of time. You have to consider that such rocks could be anything from loosely bound dust/ice/rock through to solid iron. NASA are considering placing a radio transmitter on this particular rock on it's first pass in 2029 to more accurately predict it's passes in 2034/6.
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