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Thread: Meteorite fall in Chelyabinsk!

  1. #1 Meteorite fall in Chelyabinsk! 
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    Today registered a decline metiarita! Flash seen for 300 miles! Does not work mobile. There are wounded from cuts of broken glass! The evening will fly folder, NASA will be broadcast live!

    Here is video:



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    More on the story here.
    Meteorite falls in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region; 100 injured - The Washington Post


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    How come this not related to 2012DA4 asteroid flyby? is this kind of coincidence always happen?
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    Quote Originally Posted by msafwan View Post
    How come this not related to 2012DA4 asteroid flyby? is this kind of coincidence always happen?
    I asked myself that question too. But appearently this meteorite flew by the nothern hemisphere and the other will at the southern to northern. They come from completely seperate directions.
    In the information age ignorance is a choice.
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    I wish I could have been there. I've seen meteorites before, they've alway burned up. I would have jumped in my car and raced to the impact site.

    Really fantastic video coverage of this event.
    "Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." -Calvin
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    another one should pass over germany today also.
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    Appearently whole garage doors were blasted open
    In the information age ignorance is a choice.
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    5 things about Friday's space events – Light Years - CNN.com Blogs

    5 things about Friday's space events
    By Elizabeth Landau, CNN
    About 1,000 people have been injured in Russia as the result of a meteor exploding in the air. The energy of the detonation appears to be equivalent to about 300 kilotons of TNT, said Margaret Campbell-Brown of the department of physics and astronomy at the University of Western Ontario.
    Meanwhile, an asteroid approached Earth but did not hit it Friday, coming closest at about 2:25 p.m. ET.
    You probably have some questions about both of those events, so here's a brief overview:
    1. Are these events connected?
    The meteor in Russia and the asteroid that passed by on Friday afternoon are "completely unrelated," according to NASA. The trajectory of the meteor differs substantially from that of asteroid 2012 DA14, NASA said.
    Estimates on the meteor's size are preliminary, but it appeared to be about one-third the size of 2012 DA14.
    The term "asteroid" can also be used to describe the rock that exploded over Russia, according to the European Space Agency and NASA, although it was a relatively small one.
    2. What's the difference between an asteroid and a meteorite and other space rocks?
    According to NASA, here’s how you tell what kind of object is falling from the sky:
    Asteroids are relatively small, inactive rocky bodies that orbit the sun.
    Comets are also relatively small and have ice on them that can vaporize in sunlight. This process forms an atmosphere and dust and gas; you might also see a “tail’ of dust or gas.
    Meteoroids are small particles from comets or asteroids, orbiting the sun.
    Meteors are meteoroids that enter the Earth’s atmosphere and vaporize, also known as shooting stars.
    Meteorites are meteoroids that actually land on the Earth’s surface. The pieces of the meteor that exploded in Russia are meteorites.
    Generally meteorites are smaller than grains of sand and vaporize on passage through the atmosphere. But there are also larger meteorites.
    Comets and asteroids are left over from when the solar system formed. There used to be more of them, but over time they’ve collided to form major planets, or they've got booted from the inner solar system to the Oort cloud or have been ejected from the solar system entirely.
    3. Why didn't we see the Russian meteor coming?
    Only one space rock that impacted the planet has ever been observed before it hit the Earth, Campbell-Brown said.
    That's because objects that do hit the Earth tend to be smaller, and it's too hard to see them. The one sighting before impact happened in 2008, a day before a meteor exploded over Sudan.
    Current estimates suggest that the Russian meteor was about 15 meters (49 feet) across, which is too small for telescopic surveys.
    "Unfortunately the objects of this size have to be very close to Earth for us to be able to see them at all," Campbell-Brown said.
    The asteroid that approached Earth Friday, which NASA has been tracking, is about 45 meters long, which is relatively small for an asteroid.
    4. How does this compare to other Earth impacts?
    The Earth picks up tons of meteoric debris every day, but big pieces are fairly uncommon, said David Dundee, astronomer at Tellus Science Museum in Cartersville, Georgia.
    An object the size of the Russian meteor comes in about once every 50 years, but none has been recorded since 1908, when an asteroid exploded and leveled trees over an area of 820 square miles - about two-thirds the size of Rhode Island - in Tunguska, Russia.
    "This is the largest event that we know of that's happened since Tunguska," Campbell-Brown said.
    The Tunguska event did not leave a crater. If there are craters as a result of Friday's meteor, they would be very small, resulting from the debris from the midair explosion.
    "It's unfortunate that this occurred over a populated area," Campbell-Brown said. Over a desert or ocean, it would have done very little damage.
    This is much smaller than the event thought to have wiped out the dinosaur population, she said.
    The meteor was moving through space at about 33,000 miles per hour. When it suddenly decelerated above Russia, the energy was converted into heat and sound, which resulted in a shock wave of energy and a sonic boom, Dundee said.
    About three years ago, a woman in Cartersville, Georgia, discovered a baseball-sized meteorite in her home, which had flown straight through the roof. It is now at the Tellus Museum, Dundee said.
    5. Why shouldn't you touch a meteorite?
    As a meteor comes through the atmosphere, it gets very hot, but this thin hot layer quickly cools off. When you find it on the ground, a meteorite is generally acclimated to ambient temperature.
    "We advise people not to touch things with their hands because we like to look for trace elements in the meteorites, and if you touch it in your hand, you've contaminated it," Campbell-Brown said.
    Meteorites are probably not more radioactive than Earth rocks, and the minerals inside aren't toxic, she said. The biggest reason to not touch them is to preserve the scientific status.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kerling View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by msafwan View Post
    How come this not related to 2012DA4 asteroid flyby? is this kind of coincidence always happen?
    I asked myself that question too. But appearently this meteorite flew by the nothern hemisphere and the other will at the southern to northern. They come from completely seperate directions.
    When you look at the probabilities involved the chances of the two events being completely unrelated as scientists tell us, are extremely high against.

    First you have a meteorite coming within almost one Earth's diameter of the planet's surface, which doesn't happen very often, and then you have an object as large as the Russian meteorite entering the Earth's atmosphere just 12 hours before the other meteorite's close flyby.

    I've not calculated the statistics involved but I'd love to know what they were.
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    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    When you look at the probabilities involved the chances of the two events being completely unrelated as scientists tell us, are extremely high against.
    Since it did happen, the probability of occurrence was 100%.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Harold14370 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    When you look at the probabilities involved the chances of the two events being completely unrelated as scientists tell us, are extremely high against.
    Since it did happen, the probability of occurrence was 100%.
    How about the following calculation of the probability of the two meteorite events occuring within a 12 hour period.

    The Chelyabinsk meteorite was the biggest since the Tunguska event of 1908 and a near miss like 2012 DA14 is thought to only occur every 40 years.

    This would give:

    ( 2 x 365 x 100 ) x ( 2 x 365 x 40 ) = 1 : 2 Billion !
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    According to some sources the meteorite(I would say small asteroid) was fortunately intercepted by a missile.
    ‘Unconfirmed Reports’: Meteorite blown up by missile over Russia?
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    Quote Originally Posted by andrewblog View Post
    According to some sources the meteorite(I would say small asteroid) was fortunately intercepted by a missile.
    ‘Unconfirmed Reports’: Meteorite blown up by missile over Russia?
    It's a very common occurrence for meteorites to explode in mid-air causing a shower of stones over what is known as a strewn field.

    As for employing 20,000 emergency workers in the area having so many buildings without windows can itself be a problem in cold weather.
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    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Harold14370 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    When you look at the probabilities involved the chances of the two events being completely unrelated as scientists tell us, are extremely high against.
    Since it did happen, the probability of occurrence was 100%.
    How about the following calculation of the probability of the two meteorite events occuring within a 12 hour period.

    The Chelyabinsk meteorite was the biggest since the Tunguska event of 1908 and a near miss like 2012 DA14 is thought to only occur every 40 years.

    This would give:

    ( 2 x 365 x 100 ) x ( 2 x 365 x 40 ) = 1 : 2 Billion !
    If there are 2 billion different remarkable things that could possibly happen, each one having a probability of occurring once in two billion years, then on average, there would be one remarkable event per year.


    Quote Originally Posted by Andrewblog
    According to some sources the meteorite(I would say small asteroid) was fortunately intercepted by a missile.
    ‘Unconfirmed Reports’: Meteorite blown up by missile over Russia?
    Someone would have to be pretty gullible to believe those reports.
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    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Harold14370 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    When you look at the probabilities involved the chances of the two events being completely unrelated as scientists tell us, are extremely high against.
    Since it did happen, the probability of occurrence was 100%.
    How about the following calculation of the probability of the two meteorite events occuring within a 12 hour period.

    The Chelyabinsk meteorite was the biggest since the Tunguska event of 1908 and a near miss like 2012 DA14 is thought to only occur every 40 years.

    This would give:

    ( 2 x 365 x 100 ) x ( 2 x 365 x 40 ) = 1 : 2 Billion !
    None of you spotted the following objection to the calculation:

    Because 2012 DA14 had already happened the chances of a Chelyabinsk meteorite happening within 12 hours of its closest approach would be:

    (2 x 365 x 105) = 1 : 77,000 which is still a very high figure.

    A Russian TV station made the embarrassing error of mistaking the Derweze natural gas fire in Turkmenistan for the Chelyabinsk meteorite crater. See it on YouTube:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq-d8_RbQuQ

    This is the Wiki entry for the Derweze gas fire:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derweze
    Last edited by galexander; February 22nd, 2013 at 06:51 AM. Reason: Had to re-do the links
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    Astronomers have traced the origin of the Chelyabinsk meteor. Using amateur video footage, they were able to plot the meteor’s trajectory through Earth’s atmosphere and then reconstruct its orbit around the Sun.

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    Quote Originally Posted by galexander View Post
    None of you spotted the following objection to the calculation:

    Because 2012 DA14 had already happened the chances of a Chelyabinsk meteorite happening within 12 hours of its closest approach would be:

    (2 x 365 x 105) = 1 : 77,000 which is still a very high figure.

    A Russian TV station made the embarrassing error of mistaking the Derweze natural gas fire in Turkmenistan for the Chelyabinsk meteorite crater. See it on YouTube:

    Super Meteor makes huge Crater in Russia | 15.02.2013 - YouTube

    This is the Wiki entry for the Derweze gas fire:

    Derweze - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    How about the following statistic?

    Because an event like 2012 DA14 only occurs every 40 years and there is a 1 : 77,000 chance of a second event like the Chelyabinsk meteorite happening with a twelve hour period, such a co-incidence would only happen once every 3 million years!
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    Meteors of the Tunguska and Chelyabinsk type have fallen in relatively unpopulated areas. The next time we won't be so lucky.
    Last edited by SciFi-Real; March 6th, 2013 at 04:43 AM.
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    Comet C/2013 A1 is expected to make a close pass by Mars. Calculations suggest a comet this size impacting Mars would actually terraform the planet. Assuming it would miss by ca. 37,000 km, is it possible to model how much delta-v change would get it to collide with Mars?

    This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of millions.
    This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is huge. To put it perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

    For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this. So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year. Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

    Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods begin piling up greater and greater.

    Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may be upcoming.

    It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.


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    Quote Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
    Comet C/2013 A1 is expected to make a close pass by Mars. Calculations suggest a comet this size impacting Mars would actually terraform the planet. Assuming it would miss by ca. 37,000 km, is it possible to model how much delta-v change would get it to collide with Mars?
    This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of millions.
    This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is huge. To put it perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.
    For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this. So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year. Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.
    Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods begin piling up greater and greater.
    Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may be upcoming.
    It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.
    Meteor Sparks Incredible Fireball Over US Midwest (Video).
    By Miriam Kramer, Staff Writer | September 30, 2013 03:18pm ET
    "This was a very bright event," Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office told Spaceweather.com. "Flares saturated our meteor cameras, and made determination of the end point (the terminus of the fireball's flight through the atmosphere) virtually impossible. Judging from the brightness, we are dealing with a meter class object."
    Meteor Sparks Incredible Fireball Over US Midwest (Video) | Space.com
    By Deborah Byrd in
    BLOGS | EARTH | HUMAN WORLD on Sep 28, 2013
    U.S. sees another bright fireball on September 27.

    September 2013 has been busy for sightings of bright fireballs. The one at 11:33 p.m. local time on September 27 was the 14th fireball sighting in the U.S. in September.
    The American Meteor Society (AMS) has reported at least 373 reports of another bright fireball – a very bright meteor, likely a small chunk of natural incoming space debris – over the U.S. last night (September 27, 2013). These reports followed a similar event over approximately the same area the day before (September 26). The AMS called the coincidence of two bright fireballs, or bright meteors, spotted over approximately the same region on consecutive days "surprising." Witnesses from Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia reported a bright light moving across the night sky on September 27 at around 11:33 p.m. local time, according to the AMS.
    Fireball might sound ominous, but it is just the word astronomers use to mean bright meteor. As seen from a whole-Earth perspective, fireballs are seen often. It’s unusual to have two appear on consecutive nights over the same region, however.
    September 2013 has been a busy month for sightings of bright meteors, according to the AMS. Last night’s event marks the 14th fireball sighting with at least 25 witnesses in September, the most ever since the AMS started recording sightings online, they say.
    U.S. sees another bright fireball on September 27 | Earth | EarthSky
    The coincidences keep building and building ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
    Calculations suggest a comet this size impacting Mars would actually terraform the planet.
    The article doesn't say that.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RGClark View Post
    Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical phenomenon causing these large, close encounters.
    Better telescopes, more observers.
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