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Thread: UARS Satellite to Reenter the Atmosphere in 3-5 days

  1. #1 UARS Satellite to Reenter the Atmosphere in 3-5 days 
    Comet Dust Collector Moderator
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    I couldn't figure out the best forum for this, so picked this one.

    Mods feel free to move if you think another is more appropriate.


    Prepare for UFO reports!

    This will be an uncontrolled reentry, so could occur anywhere from 57 degrees N to 57 degrees South latitude.

    Latest estimate is Sept 23 +/- 1 day

    The risk assessment is interesting reading:

    http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

    Total dry mass at start 5668 kg

    – Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26
    – Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg
    – Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200

    • No NASA or USG human casualty reentry risk limits existed when UARS
    was designed, built, and launched.

    • NASA, the USG, and some foreign space agencies now seek to limit human
    casualty risks from reentering space objects to less than 1 in 10,000.

    • UARS is a moderate-sized space object. Uncontrolled reentries of objects
    more massive than UARS are not frequent, but neither are they unusual.
    – Combined Dragon mockup and Falcon 9 second stage reentry in June 2010 was more
    massive.

    • Since the beginning of the space age, there has been no confirmed report
    of an injury resulting from reentering space objects.

    • NASA, DoD, and the IADC will be monitoring the decay and reentry of UARS
    carefully.

    MW


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  3. #2  
    Moderator Moderator Dishmaster's Avatar
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    Please, do keep us posted!


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  4. #3  
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    Ok, I will. I didn't think anyone was interested, and since I got yelled at when I first joined for posting infomation only (the Japan Quake/tsunami) I was not going to add more until someone responded. Did an interview with WCBS AM on the subject this afternoon with all the latest facts.

    Center of the reentry time is 1610 UTC on Friday the 23rd (Around noon EDT), but it's +/- one day so the whole earth (between 57 north and 57 south latitude) is posssible.

    I've seen it twice, man it was really haulin' across the sky!

    Current orbit has decreased to205 x 223 km (127 x 139 miles) The end is near.
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  5. #4  
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    Updated orbit and prediction.

    As of 1324 UTC today, latest orbit is 203 x 220 km (126 x 137 mi)

    Updated reentry time Sept 23 20:36 UTC +/- 20 hours

    If it comes down 3 orbits later (~ 4.5 hours) it could be over the US.
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  6. #5  
    Forum Junior brane wave's Avatar
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    If anyone finds any parts of the satellite NASA want them back...if i find any,they'll be on ebay (as long as they dont land on me)
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  7. #6  
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    In the US, that's illegal...

    As of 1000 UTC today, the orbit is down to 195 x 209 km (121 x 130 mi) falling at a rate of 8 (perigee) and 11 (apogee) nper day.

    This has not yet been incorporated into the reentry time forecast, that's still based on yesterday's orbit update:

    UARS

    When it get down to about 120 km, the atmosphere grabs it, and it falls during that orbit.
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  8. #7  
    Forum Junior brane wave's Avatar
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    youre quite right.i wouldn't dream of stealing anything..on a serious note,thanks for the updates
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  9. #8  
    Moderator Moderator Janus's Avatar
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    Here's the real time tracking for the satellite:

    http://www.n2yo.com/?s=21701
    Last edited by Janus; September 21st, 2011 at 02:31 PM.
    "Men are apt to mistake the strength of their feelings for the strength of their argument.
    The heated mind resents the chill touch & relentless scrutiny of logic"-W.E. Gladstone


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  10. #9  
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    Latest reentry prediction (at the UARS link above) is Sept 23, at 2000 UTC +/- 14 hours.
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  11. #10  
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    Well now. I'm surprised they used the fuel to put it in a lower orbit rather than using it for a controlled entry point.

    Someone''s head needs to be on the chopping block, especially if this causes property damage or death.
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  12. #11  
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    There wasn't sufficient propellant left to do that. Remember, this was launched well before satellite designers and managers thought about these things.
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  13. #12  
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    Latest prediction is Sept 23 2207 UTC +/- 9 hours. See map at link above.

    As of 0800 UTC today, orbit was 184 x 195 km.
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  14. #13  
    Forum Professor Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeteorWayne View Post
    There wasn't sufficient propellant left to do that. Remember, this was launched well before satellite designers and managers thought about these things.
    Did you forget about Skylab? Sorry, I see no excuse.

    Really now. In 2005, they fired rockets to put it into a degrading orbit. Why not way a few more years, after the orbit already degraded, and make a controlled entry point?
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  15. #14  
    Forum Sophomore Brandon's Avatar
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    That link is no good.. I tried it for the last 4 hours and it always says too busy, try later
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  16. #15  
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    Which one?

    Here's two links that do work.

    Latest reentry prediction:

    http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

    Latest orbit and position of the satellite:


    http://heavens-above.com/orbit.aspx?...alt=104&tz=EST

    Both need to be refreshed regularly for the latest infomation. The top map only changes when new orbital elements are released, the second one shows you where the satellite is right now, if you want to know here it is at a later now, you need to refresh the page.
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  17. #16  
    Forum Sophomore Brandon's Avatar
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    Since I cannot view the link for some internet goofy reason. How long until it turns into a beautiful fireball?
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  18. #17  
    Forum Junior brane wave's Avatar
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    yes the n2yo link is problematic here too,
    however the 2 links from meteorwayne work fine
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  19. #18  
    Forum Sophomore Brandon's Avatar
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    Ah thank you. Its gettin close.......
    My goal tonight is to try and get a picture of it...
    A little research, and i find it will fall in 3 hours +/- 2 hours.. I dont think I will be able to see it but I will try
    Last edited by Brandon; September 23rd, 2011 at 09:12 PM.
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  20. #19  
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    Latest update as of 2215 UTC, demise is ~ 7 hours away, and the US is finally off the table.

    Orbit at that time (about 4 hours ago) was 145 x 150 km (90 x 93 mi). Down 17 and 20 km in the preceding 12 hours.

    Estimated crash time is 0510 UTC Sept 24 +/- 2 hours, over the very south Pacific west of Australia, although the earlier and later orbits include Canada, Africa and Australia of the landmasses.
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  21. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeteorWayne View Post
    Latest update as of 2215 UTC, demise is ~ 7 hours away, and the US is finally off the table. Orbit at that time (about 4 hours ago) was 145 x 150 km (90 x 93 mi). Down 17 and 20 km in the preceding 12 hours. Estimated crash time is 0510 UTC Sept 24 +/- 2 hours, over the very south Pacific west of Australia, although the earlier and later orbits include Canada, Africa and Australia of the landmasses.
    I googled current utc time and it would say 2:45 right now.. I Don't know
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  22. #21  
    Forum Junior brane wave's Avatar
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    im heading for the nearest deep cave...wheres my laptop......run.n.n.n.n.....i do tend to get over excitable....its my age
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  23. #22  
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    NASA Statement:

    Update #15
    ‎Today, ‎September ‎24, ‎2011, ‏‎3 hours ago
    NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite penetrated the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. The precise re-entry time and location are not yet known with certainty
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  24. #23  
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    Update #16
    ‎Today, ‎September ‎24, ‎2011, ‏‎37 minutes ago
    NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. EDT Sept. 24. The Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California said the satellite entered the atmosphere over the North Pacific Ocean, off the west coast of the United States. The precise re-entry time and location of any debris impacts are still being determined. NASA is not aware of any reports of injury or property damage.

    This is your source for official information on the re-entry of UARS. All information posted here has been verified with a government agency or law enforcement.

    NASA will conduct a media telecon at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the re-entry. The telecon will be streamed live at NASA - NASA News Audio Live Streaming.
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  25. #24  
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    Map of Final orbit with most likely point where center of debris track would be at 10 km height.

    http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/591662main_UARS%20Map.pdf
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  26. #25  
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    Post removed.
    Last edited by PumaMan; September 27th, 2011 at 04:19 PM. Reason: What was I thinking when I thanked him for the data.
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