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Thread: Asteroid Earth crossing at only 12000 kms from us

  1. #1 Asteroid Earth crossing at only 12000 kms from us 
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    A little asteroid, with diameter of only 13 meter, will pass on June 27 (13:26 TDT) at 0.000123 A.U. from the Earth, 12000 kilometers from us.

    www.pierpaoloricci.it/news_eng.htm


    My astronomical site:

    WWW.PIERPAOLORICCI.IT

    Also in English version

    www.pierpaoloricci.it/index_eng.htm
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  3. #2  
    Universal Mind John Galt's Avatar
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    If this were not missing us by a few thousand miles it would strike with an energy of over 100 kilotons of TNT, some five to ten times the power of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.


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  4. #3  
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    A few notes:

    JPL Sentry gives the close appoach on June 27 at 13:26 TBD (Barycentric Dynamical Time ) which is close enough to UTC, within a second. Time is a very complicated subject. The distance is 18367 +/- 208 km (11413 miles +/- 129) or about 0.05 X average Lunar Distance, However, remember that is distance to the earth's center, so when you subtract the average radius of ~6371 km, it will pass only 11996 km (7454 mi) above the local surface.

    NEODYS-2, which uses a different automatic orbit calculation program has it about 228 km further away

    This will change quickly, since there are only 17 observations over one night, so the orbit will be improved over the next few days to close approach.
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    Forum Sophomore Alex-The Great's Avatar
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    oooo....i'm scared.....look i'm shaking
    "Universe is not as weird as you think it is weirder than you can ever,ever think"- Ophiolite(My Grandpa)
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."
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    Boatload of new obs, now 56 with 2 day arc.

    CA distance now 18653 +/- 53 km at 17:01 TBD +/ 3 minutes.
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  7. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    If this were not missing us by a few thousand miles it would strike with an energy of over 100 kilotons of TNT, some five to ten times the power of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
    wow really? but its only 13 metres in diametre? i wouldntv thought it would have anywhere near this amount of mahem. To think meteors get WAYYY bigger. This thing is tiny. Can you explain why it has so much power? Im just not seeing where all this energy comes from
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  8. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by somfooleishfool
    Quote Originally Posted by Ophiolite
    If this were not missing us by a few thousand miles it would strike with an energy of over 100 kilotons of TNT, some five to ten times the power of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
    wow really? but its only 13 metres in diametre? i wouldntv thought it would have anywhere near this amount of mahem. To think meteors get WAYYY bigger. This thing is tiny. Can you explain why it has so much power? Im just not seeing where all this energy comes from
    Kenitic energy; most of these are going 10 miles/second and faster relative to earth's surface.
    Meteorologist/Naturalist & Retired Soldier
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  9. #8  
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    A few facts

    Currently the estimated diameter is 8 meters (range 6-14) The highly uncertain mass estimate is 6.3e+05 kg. Since the object orbits in a VERY earth like orbit, it approaches at only 1.49 km/s; after acceleration from earth's gravity, it would impact the atmosphere at 11.24 km/s.

    Since Kinetic Energy = 1/2*m*(v^2), the energy release would be ~ 9.5 kiloton.

    Hiroshima was 13 KT, detonating at 580 meters
    Nagasaki was 21 KT detonating at 469 meters.

    An object like 2011 MD (If it's not a rocket body, which is a remote possibility, see below) would detonate at 5-20 km above the surface. So the effect would be even less. It could drop some meteorites, which would be falling straight down at ~ 300 km/h.

    Odds of any impact is 1 in 2080; highest risk is June 13, 2081 at 1 in 20,000.

    Possibility it is a rocket body:

    http://www.skyandtelescope.com/commu...124484634.html

    This is based on the latest from JPL/Sentry on 210 observations over 3.88 days.
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  10. #9  
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    Who cares about this tiny little thing?

    You want something to worry about, see my topic about 2011 AG5...

    Still not worthy of real worry yet, since it's a Torino scale 1, while 2011 MD is Torino scale zero, which means:

    "No Hazard
    (White Zone)
    TS=0

    The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
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  11. #10  
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    Is there an estimate of how many are as yet undiscovered?
    Meteorologist/Naturalist & Retired Soldier
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  12. #11  
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    Yeah, but it's more like Wild A** Guesses

    We are finding about 1000 Near earth asteroids a year, due to improved searches.
    As late as year 2000, there were only 1000 known in total. The current count is >8000.

    NEA Definition: Asteroids with perihelions less that 1.3 AU.

    Since mid January I have been tracking Close Approaching asteroids.

    374 came within 0.2 AU (rather far). 202 were new discoveries (~53%)
    76 came within 10X Lunar Distance
    24 came within 2X Lunar distance.

    9 Were Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( Definition:Potentially Hazardous Asteriods: NEAs whose Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with the Earth is 0.05 AU or less and whose absolute magnitude (H) is 22.0 or brighter-~125-250 meters diameter)

    MW
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    What does it mean "YOU"have been tracking Close Approaching Asteroids? Please Elaborate on this.............
    "Universe is not as weird as you think it is weirder than you can ever,ever think"- Ophiolite(My Grandpa)
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."
    - Prof. Stephen W. Hawking
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  14. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeteorWayne
    Currently the estimated diameter is 8 meters (range 6-14) The highly uncertain mass estimate is 6.3e+05 kg. Since the object orbits in a VERY earth like orbit, it approaches at only 1.49 km/s; after acceleration from earth's gravity, it would impact the atmosphere at 11.24 km/s.

    Since Kinetic Energy = 1/2*m*(v^2), the energy release would be ~ 9.5 kiloton.

    Hiroshima was 13 KT, detonating at 580 meters
    Nagasaki was 21 KT detonating at 469 meters.
    My 100 kiloton calculation was based on the object being 13m in diameter and travelling at 15km/second. Further I assumed it was a typical chondrite composition with zero porosity.

    The only way I can get my figures to match yours is to take a chondrite with 30%+ porosity, with the smaller size and lower velocity, or a carbonaceous chondrite with 20% porosity, and the smaller values for size and velocity.
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  15. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex-The Great
    What does it mean "YOU"have been tracking Close Approaching Asteroids? Please Elaborate on this.............
    I mean I have been entering daily the reports on JPL Sentry's Close Approaching Asteroids page since mid January. Every day. So I have very good statistics. It was motivated by a borderline spammer who hypes every fireball spotted on a meteor maillist I subscribe to.

    I don't think I suggested (or I certainly did not mean to) that I was actually tracking each asteroid.

    Meteor Wayne
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  16. #15  
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    Does anyone have pictures? Thanks!
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  17. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by STP
    Does anyone have pictures? Thanks!
    http://news.discovery.com/space/first-photos-of-incoming-asteroid-2011-md-110627.html

    But I predict you will be disappointed.
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    The website of Pete Birtwhistle,one of the 1st observers of 2011 MD who imaged it and helped calculate it's orbit: http://t.co/uKq
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  19. #18  
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    Apparently a faulty link.
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    Hmmm, apologies for the faulty link.

    The website of Pete Birtwhistle, one of the 1st observers of 2011 MD who imaged it and helped calculate it's orbit: birtwhistle.org

    I hope this link works also (proof, pudding etc):

    Peter Birtwhistle, one of the initial observers of 2011 MD helped establish it's orbit, see here: http://t.co/x1FlwGM
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  21. #20  
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    You'll have to do that one manually, to save time:

    http://www.birtwhistle.org/

    Huzzah! I got there in the end!
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  22. #21  
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    Michael


    I am not sure why you infer that I claimed discovery or any such thing. Two journalists added their own spin on to the articles published, on discovery news and Skymania, (this was also argued on Twitter), but I would like an apology for that comment as I have never claimed to have discovered it, in fact the articles I have written for LCOGT etc expressly state otherwise

    http://lcogt.net/en/blog/egomez/near...apped-amateurs

    (yes I wrote that with Ed Gomez!)

    I cannot help what journalists do, last year the Daily Mail also spun a story so badly it almost got me fired...

    Anyway, would appreciate a retraction
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    I will retract the statement as I think you've made it very clear where you stand on this. Apologies.

    I'm not "some bozo" tho.

    Just be careful in future Nick. It is very important to specify that you did or didn't do something when speaking with journalists.
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  24. #23  
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    I would also be HAPPY to provide you the email addresses of both journalists who will happily confirm this fact
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    Nick,

    No need to worry. I have seen the link you posted. I am fully satisfied that you have provided more than enough evidence of your position on this.

    I have edited my message.

    Again, sincere apologies for jumping the gun and shooting my mouth off.

    Regards,

    /Michael
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  26. #25  
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    Thanks Michael, and I also retract the Bozo comment...

    I am clear...all I did was image the thing near to close approach, which lots of press picked up on as we used a big scope, and it was in conjunction with Mark from Stargazing Live.. not once (and I'd also be happy to post copies of all email comms) did I infer or imply in any way shape or form I had discovered it or was the first to image it.
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    Nick,

    Yes, it was troublesome to see it. You should make clear to the journalists in future or specify that you didn't observe it first or image it first etc.

    Just for scientific clarity. Those bastards will do anything!
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  28. #27  
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    The sad thing is/was that both journalists in question knew, as they had written up the discovery story on the Friday citing Peter's work..

    C/2007 Q3 last year, which I was imaging in my lunch break, the Mail managed in about 500 words to not only get pretty much every single fact wrong, but also almost cost me my job..

    What's actually the worst bit now though, is that this thread comes up in google as the top link when you search for 2011MD latest news

    :-(
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  29. #28  
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    The thread is no longer top of the google results

    Besides, good opportunity for other see you vehemently defending your name
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  30. #29  
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    If I make a mistake, I am hopefully the first to admit it and hold my hands up.. :-)
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