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| kojax |
 Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:18 pm Post subject: Insurgencies and Morale. |
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Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 3034
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I often hear people suggest that the goal of insurgents in a place like Afghanistan is simply to wear away American morale until we leave, but what about their morale?
Consider, for example, the American Revolutionary War, which was very similar in a lot of ways when you consider the way that Washington, "The Gray Fox", employed guerilla tactics in some of the early stages of the war. He faced widespread abandonment and mutiny at multiple stages of the conflict. It's widely believed that the battle of Trenton, where American forces attacked a Hessian position on the day after Christmas was intended as an attempt to bolster the morale of the men by giving them a victory.
Is it possible that enemy forces in Afghanistan face similar internal problems? Are there conditions under which the majority of fighters would abandon the cause? Should we be focusing on trying to find ways to humiliate them instead of kill them? I'm thinking that, if a substantial portion of their force were to mutiny or abandon the cause and go home, that would be the tactical equivalent of us having inflicted catastrophic casualties. Loss of a soldier is loss of a soldier. Does it really matter if the reason they're gone is that they quit instead of being because they died? |
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| Pong |
| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:12 am Post subject: |
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Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 08 Apr 2008
Posts: 4180
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Do they have homes to go to?
First generation taliban (literally: students) were war orphans. Homeless. Raised in fundamentalist charity madrasahs, set up just for them. Either parents actually killed or crippled, or more often couldn't support their children due to economic instability. People get displaced. The continued disruption of society generated a perpetual flow of abandoned, traumatized, bitter orphans. So what did the students learn at school? School's out, they have no concept of home. Just deep incurable hatred coupled with a righteous education and a military education. Family for them meant their fanatic "brothers" and the older but sympathetically fatherless Mullah Omar.
I imagine that culture of homelessness continues, though softened and diversified as these dysfunctional guys attached themselves to tribes... families. I think it's growing more like the old mujahideen system of warlords again. This is good, because demoralized fighters will have homes to retreat to, so they needn't keep fighting.
And yet it's not so great, because we're back to killing some poor kid's dad or big brother. That's a really f*cked sense of identity to inflict on children. Though the military must pretend it's not their problem, they are not part of the problem.
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A pong by any other name is still a pong. -williampinn |
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| kojax |
| Posted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 3034
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| Pong wrote: |
Do they have homes to go to?
First generation taliban (literally: students) were war orphans. Homeless. Raised in fundamentalist charity madrasahs, set up just for them. Either parents actually killed or crippled, or more often couldn't support their children due to economic instability. People get displaced. The continued disruption of society generated a perpetual flow of abandoned, traumatized, bitter orphans. So what did the students learn at school? School's out, they have no concept of home. Just deep incurable hatred coupled with a righteous education and a military education. Family for them meant their fanatic "brothers" and the older but sympathetically fatherless Mullah Omar.
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The Russian advance was deliberately genocidal in nature. I don't think the current war disrupts their lives in a way that could even be compared. The main problem right now is that the Taliban forces often choose to attack US forces near their villages, which means ordinary people are apt to get killed in the cross fire. Also, merely interacting with Americans can lead to them being marked for death. Compare that with Russia, where Soviet helicopters would simply fly over villages and massacre everyone.
I don't think it's truly fair to say we created this beast. It's like if you adopt a child who comes out of a severely abusive home. They want to blame you for their experiences simply because it gives them someone to blame, a way to validate their emotions by acting out against something.
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I imagine that culture of homelessness continues, though softened and diversified as these dysfunctional guys attached themselves to tribes... families. I think it's growing more like the old mujahideen system of warlords again. This is good, because demoralized fighters will have homes to retreat to, so they needn't keep fighting.
And yet it's not so great, because we're back to killing some poor kid's dad or big brother. That's a really f*cked sense of identity to inflict on children. Though the military must pretend it's not their problem, they are not part of the problem. |
It sounds to me like they have no confidence that a unanimous surrender would lead to lasting peace. I doubt this homelessness and chaos would continue under American rule. That is... if they ever allowed America to rule.
On the other hand, if they win, it will probably continue forever, because their real estate is valuable to every major player in the world. |
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| Lynx_Fox |
| Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 5:30 am Post subject: |
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Moderator
Joined: 16 Apr 2007
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Location: Iraq
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| kojax wrote: |
On the other hand, if they win, it will probably continue forever, because their real estate is valuable to every major player in the world. |
Curiuos why you say that. It's not rich by any means and even its traditional value for trade routes hasn't been much for centuries.
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| kojax |
| Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 8:48 am Post subject: |
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Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 3034
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| Lynx_Fox wrote: |
| kojax wrote: |
On the other hand, if they win, it will probably continue forever, because their real estate is valuable to every major player in the world. |
Curiuos why you say that. It's not rich by any means and even its traditional value for trade routes hasn't been much for centuries. |
From the wiki article on Afghanistan:
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According to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Afghan Ministry of Mines and Industry, Afghanistan may be possessing up to 36 trillion cubic feet (1,000 km3) of natural gas, 3.6 billion barrels (570,000,000 m3) of petroleum and up to 1,325 million barrels (2.107E+8 m3) of natural gas liquids. This could mark the turning point in Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts. Energy exports could generate the revenue that Afghan officials need to modernize the country’s infrastructure and expand economic opportunities for the beleaguered and fractious population.[30] Other reports show that the country has huge amounts of gold, copper, coal, iron ore and other minerals.[27][31][151][152] The government of Afghanistan is in the process of extracting and exporting its copper reserves, which will be earning $1.2 billion US dollars in royalties and taxes every year for the next 30 years. It will also provide permanent labor to 3,000 of its citizens.[153]
See also: Opium Production in Afghanistan |
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| Lynx_Fox |
| Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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That is good news. Here's one of the studies (I think the one you mentioned):
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2007/3063/fs2007-3063.pdf
Reminds me a bit of the Congo, a place amazingly rich but too unstable to draw the kind of investments needed to extract and transport the riches.
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| fizzlooney |
| Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 8:08 pm Post subject: BS |
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Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 08 Jan 2009
Posts: 609
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you will never win a war against a populist insurget force unless willing to comitt genocide. Since we are not willing we will not win reguardless of morale.
So lay waste to ALL and take the natural resources or get the hell outta there.
Been there and done that in Vietnam(1970-1971) myself. didn't work there won't work in Afgan. Ask the Russians. |
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| icewendigo |
| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 21 Jun 2006
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To me its like a Nazi Germany debate on whether invading other countries should be done or not, based on whether they are expected to"win" and loot or not  ...
...How about Not invading even it you could loot the gas and tax/profiteer/blockade the pipeline?
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| mutiny or abandon the cause and go home |
What do you mean "go home", its THEIR home! The afghan citizens part of the Taliban live there, they arent comming from the other end of the world, they arent going to pack and go to their summer house Portugal! If China had a 2 million men army in mainland US and installed a puppet president and you'd hear about bombs being dropped on civilans every other week, I'm sure american patriots left and right would fight back even if they had nothing to fight with except small firearms and makeshift explosives. They wouldnt care if if was about wearing down the chinese or morale, theyd fight until the invaders left, period.
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| I often hear people suggest that the goal of insurgents in a place like Afghanistan is simply to wear away American morale until we leave, but what about their morale? |
SS officer: 'I often hear people suggest that the goal of the Resistance in a place like France is simply to wear away German morale until we leave, but what about their morale?'    |
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| kojax |
| Posted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 1:46 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 3034
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| icewendigo wrote: |
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| mutiny or abandon the cause and go home |
What do you mean "go home", its THEIR home! The afghan citizens part of the Taliban live there, they arent comming from the other end of the world, they arent going to pack and go to their summer house Portugal! If China had a 2 million men army in mainland US and installed a puppet president and you'd hear about bombs being dropped on civilans every other week, I'm sure american patriots left and right would fight back even if they had nothing to fight with except small firearms and makeshift explosives. They wouldnt care if if was about wearing down the chinese or morale, theyd fight until the invaders left, period.
| Quote: |
| I often hear people suggest that the goal of insurgents in a place like Afghanistan is simply to wear away American morale until we leave, but what about their morale? |
SS officer: 'I often hear people suggest that the goal of the Resistance in a place like France is simply to wear away German morale until we leave, but what about their morale?' |
Did you notice that I was making these arguments by way of comparison with the American revolution? Both of the things you're mocking really did become concerns in the American revolutionary war. There were massive desertions by American patriot forces........yes forces who "lived there" as you mention. Also, even though the goal was to wear down the English until they got tired and left, the English almost managed to wear down the American forces.
Maybe I should post this question on the history thread. The American revolutionary war was so similar to the Afghanistan war in many ways (except we were the ones in the position the Afghans are in right now). I'm curious why our insurgency had trouble with morale, if all these other insurgencies aren't having any trouble with morale? What is it that makes their insurgencies different? The American Revolutionaries were defending their homes just as much as any of the insurgencies today are. |
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