| Author |
Message
|
| ttyo888 |
 Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 5:35 pm Post subject: HIV pandemic |
 |
|
Forum Freshman
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 36
|
With our ethnics regarding sex eroding with time, how far are we from a world where HIV becomes so rampant that it has infected at least 50% to 75% of the world?
And what kind of conditions will allow this to happen and how will life be like in such a society before, during and after the pandemic? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
| paralith |
| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 06 Jun 2007
Posts: 959
Location: Washington, DC
|
I have to disagree that "eroding ethics" will make HIV rampant. In fact, if abstinence-only teaching that makes sex seem like a mysterious, secret, almost bad thing is replaced with an open and educated attitude about sex, then taking the time to make sure potential partners are clean could become more common and make sexual transfer of HIV less common. The countries where HIV is a biggest problem have large populations of uneducated people with mistaken ideas about sex and STDs. One such idea was the notion that having sex with a virgin cured HIV. You can see how that would be detrimental to fighting HIV.
In my opinion, HIV would only infect 75% of the world if it mutated in a way that allowed it to spread more easily. As it is now, I think education and medical advances will be able to stamp it out in the future.
_________________
Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself; that he is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.
~Jean-Paul Sartre
Monkeys in Clothes - hosted by SFN blogs |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| ttyo888 |
| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Freshman
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 36
|
Well in my country at the tip of the malayan penisular anyone will HIV is not allowed to hide their status of "infected" while in USA it is a alright to hide your infected status.
The problem is some people tend to take the route of "irresponsiblity" or maybe they are not even aware of their condition in the first place!
I have a friend who volunteered in a HIV center of some sort. He told me that many people in modern countries get HIV during their teens rather than extra martial affairs. Many mature and responsible adults present were once young and naive and get into trouble with the opposite gender, and it is during this "young and naive" period they catch HIV.
Like it or not, it is a fact that we all used to make big blunders in our teens and so from those blunders we mature into adults. But if the big blunder is so big like a record from juvenile delinquency or something like HIV, it's like a scar follow you to your grave. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| paralith |
| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 06 Jun 2007
Posts: 959
Location: Washington, DC
|
| ttyo888 wrote: |
| Well in my country at the tip of the malayan penisular anyone will HIV is not allowed to hide their status of "infected" while in USA it is a alright to hide your infected status. |
You don't have to walk around wearing a sign saying you have HIV in the states, but it is a persecutable crime if you have HIV and do not inform your partners of that fact.
| Quote: |
The problem is some people tend to take the route of "irresponsiblity" or maybe they are not even aware of their condition in the first place!
I have a friend who volunteered in a HIV center of some sort. He told me that many people in modern countries get HIV during their teens rather than extra martial affairs. Many mature and responsible adults present were once young and naive and get into trouble with the opposite gender, and it is during this "young and naive" period they catch HIV.
Like it or not, it is a fact that we all used to make big blunders in our teens and so from those blunders we mature into adults. But if the big blunder is so big like a record from juvenile delinquency or something like HIV, it's like a scar follow you to your grave. |
Young people being irresponsible and naive is not the same as degrading ethics being the primary cause of the spread of HIV across the world. Just because many people with HIV caught it when they are young does not mean that all young people will catch HIV.
_________________
Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself; that he is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.
~Jean-Paul Sartre
Monkeys in Clothes - hosted by SFN blogs |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| ttyo888 |
| Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2008 10:05 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Freshman
Joined: 12 Feb 2008
Posts: 36
|
| paralith wrote: |
You don't have to walk around wearing a sign saying you have HIV in the states, but it is a persecutable crime if you have HIV and do not inform your partners of that fact.
Young people being irresponsible and naive is not the same as degrading ethics being the primary cause of the spread of HIV across the world. Just because many people with HIV caught it when they are young does not mean that all young people will catch HIV. |
I see thanks for the clearing the misunderstanding.
But anyway the problem is that most people think they do not have HIV only to discover it only when they are older and get married that sorta thing. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| sunshinewarrior |
| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 7:47 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 825
Location: London
|
| paralith wrote: |
You don't have to walk around wearing a sign saying you have HIV in the states, but it is a persecutable crime if you have HIV and do not inform your partners of that fact.
|
"Persecutable"? Freudian slip? 
Actually, don't mean to be pedantic but simply add a point or two.
If HIV reaches pandemic proportions (whether or not through rampant promiscuity) I believe we will more than likely see it become a lot less malign. Yes, it will seriously affect, and even kill, many of the people it touches but I believe that its own versatility and generally slow incubation rates may make it, in each succeeding generation, less and less virulent until it will be pandemic, but pandemic like the common cold - everybody will go through it at some stage, or everybody will be a carrier.
For some reason I find it hard to believe that it will actually succeed in denting the human population in a significant way. But that may just be me... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| paralith |
| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 7:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 06 Jun 2007
Posts: 959
Location: Washington, DC
|
| sunshinewarrio wrote: |
| paralith wrote: |
You don't have to walk around wearing a sign saying you have HIV in the states, but it is a persecutable crime if you have HIV and do not inform your partners of that fact.
|
"Persecutable"? Freudian slip? |
whoops! I guess so, haha. "Prosecutable." ^_^
| Quote: |
Actually, don't mean to be pedantic but simply add a point or two.
If HIV reaches pandemic proportions (whether or not through rampant promiscuity) I believe we will more than likely see it become a lot less malign. Yes, it will seriously affect, and even kill, many of the people it touches but I believe that its own versatility and generally slow incubation rates may make it, in each succeeding generation, less and less virulent until it will be pandemic, but pandemic like the common cold - everybody will go through it at some stage, or everybody will be a carrier.
For some reason I find it hard to believe that it will actually succeed in denting the human population in a significant way. But that may just be me... |
I agree that's definitely possible. Especially considering the combination of your points with medical advances in treatment. Even now people with AIDs can live relatively normal lives with the right medication regime. But either way, I doubt it will make a big dent either.
_________________
Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself; that he is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.
~Jean-Paul Sartre
Monkeys in Clothes - hosted by SFN blogs |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| i_feel_tiredsleepy |
| Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Senior
Joined: 21 Mar 2008
Posts: 376
Location: Montreal
|
STDs never reach pandemic conditions in modern countries, society will always become paranoid and attack the problem before it could reach that level. If it even started to affect 20-30% of the population there would be manditory testing, and you probably would start seeing people with signs around their necks >.>.
I wouldn't think that natural immunity to HIV would develop within a short period because of the importance of the CD4 receptor, mutations in humanity to become resistant would be rare, and there isn't much selection pressure for a decrease in HIV virulence because it is already a pretty slow acting virus. Although, as our understanding of virology and molecular biology increases there will certainly be better drugs comming out in the future. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| sunshinewarrior |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 2:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 825
Location: London
|
| i_feel_tiredsleepy wrote: |
| there isn't much selection pressure for a decrease in HIV virulence because it is already a pretty slow acting virus. |
I'll admit I did wonder about that. Thanks. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| KALSTER |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 4:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Professor
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1486
Location: South Africa
|
As stated above, it is not HIV/AIDS itself that is so bad on its own, it is the lack of education that is the problem. A good case in point is Swaziland where a severe generation gap is developing. This is the cumulative effect of less effective (cheaper) anti-retrovirals, escalating cases of treatment-resistant TB and the prevalence of myth/superstition.
Take a look HERE.
Epidemic levels of simple denial is another factor. I have seen documentaries (can’t provide a source) depicting people continuing with unprotected promiscuity unabated by the fact that they have HIV and while knowing the consequences. Short of a possible cure, I don’t see much hope for sub-Saharan Africa.  
_________________
"Gullibility kills" - Carl Sagan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| Ophiolite |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 6:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Radioactive Isotope
Joined: 25 Jul 2005
Posts: 4016
Location: Scotland
|
| sunshinewarrior wrote: |
| paralith wrote: |
You don't have to walk around wearing a sign saying you have HIV in the states, but it is a persecutable crime if you have HIV and do not inform your partners of that fact.
|
"Persecutable"? Freudian slip?
|
Damn. You beat me to it.
_________________
The Universe is not only weirder than we imagine it is weirder than we can imagine. J.B.S.Haldane. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| sunshinewarrior |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:10 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 825
Location: London
|
| KALSTER wrote: |
Epidemic levels of simple denial is another factor. I have seen documentaries (can’t provide a source) depicting people continuing with unprotected promiscuity unabated by the fact that they have HIV and while knowing the consequences. Short of a possible cure, I don’t see much hope for sub-Saharan Africa. |
I have the hugest of hopes for the Rainbow Nation, but I have to say that Thabo Mbeki made me almost weep for the South Africans he let down on this matter. But that's politics...
And, yes, I agree that for sub-Saharan Africa at least, short of a cure or cheap long-term maintenance drugs, hope is slim. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| KALSTER |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Professor
Joined: 08 Sep 2007
Posts: 1486
Location: South Africa
|
And we might be getting an even worse president soon, Jacob Zuma. He even freely admitted in a court case to having had unprotected sex with someone half his age. I want to emigrate!
From the wiki article:
| Quote: |
| Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma, the former Deputy President of South Africa and current deputy president of the governing political party, the African National Congress (ANC) was charged with rape in the Johannesburg High Court on 6 December 2005. The accuser, a friend of Zuma's daughter, was known by Zuma to be HIV positive. On 8 May 2006, the Court dismissed the charges, agreeing that the sexual act in question was consensual. During the trial, Zuma admitted to having unprotected sex with his accuser but claimed that he took a shower afterwards to cut the risk of contracting HIV. This statement has been condemned by the judge, health experts, AIDS activists and the public in general. |
He could be the next president of the biggest economy in Africa. No hope.
_________________
"Gullibility kills" - Carl Sagan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| sunshinewarrior |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 26 Sep 2007
Posts: 825
Location: London
|
"During the trial, Zuma admitted to having unprotected sex with his accuser but claimed that he took a shower afterwards to cut the risk of contracting HIV."
And wasn't she underage too?
I tend to agree - very little hope... I'm sorry for your magnificent country. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
| paralith |
| Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 06 Jun 2007
Posts: 959
Location: Washington, DC
|
Ugh. What ignorance. Taking a shower afterwards is too little too late.
I would like to add to your list of what might save sub-saharan Africa - serious and concerted educational reform.
_________________
Man can will nothing unless he has first understood that he must count on no one but himself; that he is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.
~Jean-Paul Sartre
Monkeys in Clothes - hosted by SFN blogs |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
