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| whitewolf |
 Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:10 pm Post subject: China, today |
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Forum Freshman
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
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I recently came across this:
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| China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. |
from http://www.washtimes.com/specialreport/20050626-122138-1088r.htm
Is that mere paranoia? |
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| arditezza |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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Isn't all "American Intelligence" mere paranoia?
WMD... Osama and Saddam working together... Korea nuking us all into oblivion...
American and Intelligence are diobolical opposites when it comes to global politics.
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| (In)Sanity |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Cosmic Wizard
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| China has far too much to loose by annoying the rest of the world. The US drives most of the Chinese economy. Attacking Tiawan would not be in their best interest. |
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| invert_nexus |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Ph.D.
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I don't know.
I'm of two minds about this whole thing.
One. If taken at face value, then this is bad news. A war with China would not be fun. And if China ever decides to stand up, then we're in for a hard time.
But, as Insanity has said, I don't really understand why China would want to endanger all the hard work they've put into making connections in the world over the past decade or so. Since the end of the Cold War, China has made long strides towards being seen in a better light by the world community.
Invading Taiwan would destroy all that. And for what? What the hell good is Taiwan? Could it be simply to clean up loose ends? Could the fact that Taiwan exists stick in their craw so much that they would sacrifice everything for it?
Doubtful. But, who knows.
The article mentions another more pressing concern. Energy.
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| Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources. |
This kinda belongs in my second mind, but I'll post it here as it also belongs here on the face-value take.
First, I'll say that there is a method of analyzing statements to determine the motive of not the accused, but the accuser. What does that say about this particular accusation? Using military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources. Sound familiar?
Anyway. Back to the face-value, it would seem that much of their naval buildup could be explained merely as an attempt to secure their own energy needs. Not necessarily to invade for it, but just to ensure that it is not taken away from them. And who can blame them for that? The US controls those sea lanes which ensure China's needs. They can't be too comfortable with that situation.
Is it right for America to try to be the world's policeman and keep the oil reserves going to the 'right' place (the gas tanks of US citizens and allies...)?
Every nation has the right to ensure its own well-being and it seems that much of China's buildup could be just that.
Now. My second mind. I'm leery of this whole 'report'.
For one thing:
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| ...according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. |
Anonymity.
I'm always leery about intelligence 'leaks' with no accountability.
'Plausible deniability' is a CIA watchword. And anonymous sources helps to secure that deniability.
I, frankly, am nervous about an administration (the buck stops there...) that feels it is a 'good move' to antagonize China. And to stir up public sentiment against China.
Two possibilities of this come to mind.
Preparing for an invasion.
Or ramping up a new Cold War.
I'd hope that even Bush and his cronies (or his masters) wouldn't be so insane as to consider a war with China, so perhaps they're merely trying to spark a new McCarthy era and spur a new Cold War. After all, the end of the Cold War was one of the most severe blows the American military establishment ever suffered. They've tried to recover some of that advantage through this 'War on Terror' but perhaps they're coming to grips with the need for an enemy with a 'face' rather than the shadowy 'terrorist'.
Or maybe it's just a 'plan B'.
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The report stated that China will resort "to extreme, offensive and mercantilist measures when other strategies fail, to mitigate its vulnerabilities, such as seizing control of energy resources in neighboring states."
U.S. officials have said two likely targets for China are the Russian Far East, which has vast oil and gas deposits, and Southeast Asia, which also has oil and gas resources. |
What's strange about this 'report' is that it's not dealing with facts and figures but motivations. The anonymous intelligence officials seem to know the ins and outs of the Chinese mind. Don't they?
It smacks of fearmongering.
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| "Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States." |
Spooky. Let's start some more McCarthy hearings. The communist threat is REAL!
And. From Part II:
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| The danger of Chinese technology acquisition is that if the United States were called on to fight a war with China over the Republic of China (Taiwan), U.S. forces could find themselves battling a U.S.-equipped enemy. |
Yeah. That's the real danger. Not that they are beefing up their military, but that they're doing it with our technology. It's so much more horrible to be killed with an M-16 than a Kalashnikov. Isn't it?
Idiot.
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China's government also uses influence operations designed to advance pro-Chinese policies in the United States and to prevent the U.S. government from taking tough action or adopting policies against Beijing's interests, FBI officials said.
Rudy Guerin, a senior FBI counterintelligence official in charge of China affairs, said the Chinese aggressively exploit their connections to U.S. corporations doing business in China.
"They go straight to the companies themselves," he said.
Many U.S. firms doing business in China, including such giants as Coca-Cola, Boeing and General Motors, use their lobbyists on behalf of Beijing.
"We see the Chinese going to these companies to ask them to lobby on their behalf on certain issues," Mr. Guerin said, "whether it's most-favored-nation trade status, [World Health Organization], Falun Gong or other matters."
The Chinese government also appeals directly to members of Congress and congressional staff. |
This is another example of biased reporting.
So. The Chinese are taking their case directly to companies and to congressman. And this is... wrong?
Lobbying... is wrong?
Whether it is or not is not really the issue. But everyone does it. So what?
Fearmongering.
You know. As I typed this, thoughts of Microsoft keep popping up. Pirated software and whatnot. I wonder how much of this might be the result of lobbying from a different source?
Edit:
Oh yeah.
"The Million Man Swim."
Funny.
Last edited by invert_nexus on Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| Cottontop3000 |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:07 pm Post subject: |
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I have to agree with Invert on this one: Fearmongering.
Bush and republicans in general (conservatives) are very good at this. {The whole concept of a left-wing media is their brainchild. They use this to hide the fact that most media today is in fact very much slanted to the right. Even the Newshour with Jim Lehrer is right-leaning, as well as C-SPAN in my opinion (notice a month or so ago when callers on C-SPAN would call and ask about the Downing Street Memo? Most of them were cut off as soon as the word Downing was out of their mouths. Smelled like fish to me.).}
Now what does this have to do with China, you might ask? (I know Invert will if I don't get back on topic.) Well, tonight on the Newshour with Jim they had a piece about China. About how China is now the largest investor in Africa, from Sierra Leone (tourism) to Sudan (oil). The feel of the piece to me was "Watch out America, China is coming to get you." As if we haven't had every opportunity to invest in Africa ourselves for the last 15 years.
Also, I've recently seen many other "news" programs that have had a similar slant about China. Why all the fuss now?. It's not like we haven't known that they would be our next big rival since the end of the first Cold War anyway. Who couldn't have predicted that?
It doesn't really matter what we do now, we can't stop China, even if we tried. They are on the move, up. We are too, but we are headed the other way. Fearmongering isn't gonna help.
Anyone disagree? 
I know some will ask me what my sources are for this right leaning media, and all I can say is that it is my opinion. However, I don't think it really makes a difference which way the media leans. One thing I am becoming convinced of is that in the big picture it doesn't matter who is in power anymore. republican or democrat, they are all pretty much on one side, the rich, greedy, don't-rock-the-boat, let-the-masses-be-divided side.
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| invert_nexus |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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Oh. Almost forgot to quote this from the second article:
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| Unlike the United States, China does not distinguish between civilian and military development. The same factories in China that make refrigerators also are used to make long-range ballistic missiles. |
Yeah. Because refrigerators and long-range ballistic missiles are basically the same thing. They crank out refrigerators in the daytime, missiles at night and they do it well. It's not a bit more efficient to have seperate factories for the two different applications....
Riiiiight.
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| (I know Invert will if I don't get back on topic.) |
I'm not the topic hound that you might think I am from getting on you in one thread. I'm actually more of a tangent hound, but... that tangent was a bit too much...
So't this one probably. Heh. |
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| Cottontop3000 |
| Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2005 10:39 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Senior
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| invert_nexus wrote: |
I'm not the topic hound that you might think I am from getting on you in one thread. I'm actually more of a tangent hound, but... that tangent was a bit too much...
So't this one probably. Heh. |
You had a point, though, and it was your thread.
Anywhay, will China invade Taiwan in the near future? Who knows. The fearmongering about China though is more a result of lagging support for the Iraqi war (especially when it comes to military recruiting). If noone wants to fight in Iraq, give them another reason to join. A scarier reason. China.
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| Pendragon |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 9:15 am Post subject: |
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China has no ideological reasons to attack the US or any other western country. Their conflict with Taiwan will probably never go away, since it's rooted in their national history. But recently the relation between China and Taiwan is improving instead of worsening, so I don't seen why anything would change in the near future.
The only thing I worry about is the relation between China and Japan. Several times during the past months angry crowds attacked Japanese embassies and such, and when people are allowed to protest in China it usually means the state agrees with it. |
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| arditezza |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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Good thing that the Americans stay out of the China-Japan issue... of course it has more to do with lower prices for imported goods than it does with good politics, but whatever.
I agree that China will probably not take over or attack US targets... at least not until they have conquered all of Asia and Japan. They are cloning their army, by the way... how many 6'4" Chinamen can you find to fill the army ranks?? I know I've personally seen two in my lifetime and I grew up in Edmonton where the Asian population is very high. Either that or their are putting steroids in their Shreadies at a very young age.
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| invert_nexus |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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Forum Ph.D.
Joined: 21 Apr 2005
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Pendragon,
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| China has no ideological reasons to attack the US or any other western country. |
Ideological, no. But, I can see the article's point in the need to secure energy sources. Not necessarily the land itself, but the route to get from A to B. The US does the same, as does every other nation that is worth its salt.
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| Their conflict with Taiwan will probably never go away, since it's rooted in their national history. But recently the relation between China and Taiwan is improving instead of worsening, so I don't seen why anything would change in the near future. |
In the article, there is a sentiment expressed that the Chinese don't view the Chinese-Americans they target for espionage purposes as American-Chinese, but rather overseas ChInese.
Kinda like you can take the boy away from the farm but you'll never take the farm out of the boy.
China has always had a certain strangeness about its attitudes concerning itself and the rest of the world. It's not unique to the communists. There has always been an arrogance and ego involved. And, why not? How many times has China been invaded? And what happens to the invaders? They become Chinese. Each and every time. The Chinese Ego is a powerful thing.
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| The only thing I worry about is the relation between China and Japan. |
Japan has never answered for its atrocities in China during WWII. And today, they teach a mutilated history to their children that completely glosses over the guilt of Japan.
Could you forget Nan-King so easily?
And. China popping up submarines in Japanese waters isn't helping matters...
Arditezza,
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| of course it has more to do with lower prices for imported goods than it does with good politics, but whatever. |
You're saying that the US is staying out of it because we don't want to fuck up our trade arrangements with China because of cheap manufacture rates? Or are you saying that the issue between Japan and China is over a fight for foreign markets?
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| They are cloning their army, by the way... how many 6'4" Chinamen can you find to fill the army ranks?? |
Heh. Attack of the Clones?
I doubt it.
Steroids and other methods would be more likely. Consider, with their population they can pick the prime specimens from birth and prepare them their entire lives with dietary supplements and training and whatever...
I never knew that there was a surplus of 6'4" Chinese in their army though.
The picture of the guy in the article is pretty dorky looking. Can't tell how tall he is, but he kinda reminds me of the Japanese uboat guy from Gilligan's Island.
Solly, Cholly. |
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| arditezza |
| Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2005 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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| invert_nexus wrote: |
You're saying that the US is staying out of it because we don't want to fuck up our trade arrangements with China because of cheap manufacture rates? Or are you saying that the issue between Japan and China is over a fight for foreign markets? |
No, the issues with Japan and China span centuries. The US isn't getting involved in the current fighting (if you can really call it that) between the two because they don't want to be seen as favouring one side or the other. If they favour one side, then it will be expected that they will buy from only that side and the other will not sell to America. Therefore the US will end up screwed because of lack of competition for created goods. Both the Japanese and the Chinese are proud nations. Wounded pride from either side could prove very costly to the US market.
What I am saying is that it's too delicate a market to be going making best friends and playdates and potentially alienating the other. The economists won't have it.
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| snowfire |
| Posted: Sun May 13, 2007 4:00 am Post subject: |
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I am from China. I feel the report is a Hollywood story. Good enough for a film.
But I do understand every country has to prepare for the worst thing. I have no comment on that.
  
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| snowfire |
| Posted: Sun May 13, 2007 4:23 am Post subject: |
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I wish there is no war in this beatiful world.
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